Southern California School Enrollment Trends and Forecasts

Afternoon Roundtable Presentation USC/SCAG 21st Annual Demographic Workshop

“Getting Ready for 2010”

Valerie Edwards, Chief Enrollment Analysis CoordinatorMary Ehrenthal Prichard, Demographic Research and Planning Analyst

LAUSD Master Planning and Demographics Unit Rena Perez, DirectorJune 1, 2009

2State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2008 Series. Sacramento, California, October 2008.

California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment

5,900,000

6,000,000

6,100,000

6,200,000

6,300,000

6,400,000

6,500,000

6,600,00020

03-0

4

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

3

State of California, Department of

Finance, California Public K-12 Graded

Enrollment and High School

Graduate Projections by County, 2008

Series. Sacramento, California, October

2008.

4

Projected Southern CA Public K-12 Graded Enrollment COASTAL COUNTIES (without LA)(California Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,00020

07-0

8

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

School Year

K-1

2 G

rade

d En

rollm

ent

SAN DIEGO SANTA BARBARA VENTURA ORANGE

ForecastActual

5

Projected Southern CA Public K-12 Graded Enrollment INLAND COUNTIES

(California Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,00020

07-0

8

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

School Year

K-1

2 G

rade

d En

rollm

ent

IMPERIAL KERN RIVERSIDE SAN BERNARDINO

ForecastActual

6

Coastal Counties% Annual Change in Public K-12 Enrollments

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

1994-1995

1995-1996

1996-1997

1997-1998

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

Los Angeles Orange San Diego Ventura

7

Inland Counties% Annual Change in Public K-12 Enrollments

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

1994-1995

1995-1996

1996-1997

1997-1998

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

Riverside San Bernardino Kern Imperial

8

Coastal School Districts% Annual Change in Public K-12 Enrollments

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

1994-1995

1995-1996

1996-1997

1997-1998

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

LAUSD Conejo Valley USD,Ventura San Diego USD Santa Ana USD, Orange

9

Inland School Districts% Annual Change in Public K-12 Enrollments

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

1994-1995

1995-1996

1996-1997

1997-1998

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

Riverside USD San Bernardino City USD Sierra Sands USD, Kern Calexico USD, Imperial

Orientation of LA County, LAUSD, and surrounding counties

11

Los Angeles County Public K-12 Graded Enrollment

1,250,0001,300,0001,350,0001,400,0001,450,0001,500,0001,550,0001,600,0001,650,0001,700,0001,750,000

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2008 Series. Sacramento, California, October 2008.

12

LAUSD K-12 Enrollments as a share of all K-12 Public School Enrollments

Includes independent charter enrollments

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% o

f K-1

2 En

rollm

ent

LAUSD % of County LAUSD % of State

13

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Enrollment Year

Tota

l K-1

2 En

rollm

ent

Total Enroll LA County Total Enroll LAUSD Boundary-Private and PublicLAUSD Enroll only-no FI Charters FI Charter Enroll only-LAUSD BoundaryPrivate Enroll only- LAUSD Boundary

K-12 Enrollments by Type:LAUSD Boundary and LA County

14

Enrollment within LAUSD Boundary as a Percent of Total K-12 Enrollment

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

% o

f Tot

al K

-12

Enr

ollm

en

LAUSD w/o Independent Charter 86.9% 86.9% 86.0% 85.7% 85.0% 84.2% 83.7% 82.9%Private 12.3% 12.0% 11.6% 11.4% 11.5% 11.4% 11.1% 10.5%Independent Charter 0.82% 1.22% 2.61% 3.21% 4.01% 4.93% 5.92% 7.42%

01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13

15

Non-LAUSD School Enrollments 1999-2008 w/in LAUSD Boundary

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009

Tot

al K

-12

Priv

ate

Enr

ollm

ent

Religious Private Enroll Non-religious Private Enroll Charter Enrollment

16

Change in the Number of Private & Charter Schools by Type w/in LAUSD Boundary

298308

320

292277

203192

176168 164

96

117

140

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009

Cha

nge

in N

umbe

r of

Sch

ool

Religious Non- religious Independent Charter

17

LAUSD K-12 Public Enrollment and Births, Historical and Forecast(public enrollment includes affiliated and independent charters; opportunity schools; stand-alone magnets)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1961

-62

1963

-64

1965

-66

1967

-68

1969

-70

1971

-72

1973

-74

1975

-76

1977

-78

1979

-80

1981

-82

1983

-84

1985

-86

1987

-88

1989

-90

1991

-92

1993

-94

1995

-96

1997

-98

1999

-00

2001

-02

2003

-04

2005

-06

2007

-08

2009

-10

2011

-12

2013

-14

2015

-16

2017

-18

2019

-20

2021

-22

TOTAL K-5 6-8 9-12 LAUSD births (not offset)

ForecastActual

Births to KG 5 yrs later

18

CA, LA County and LAUSD Historical and Forecast Births

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,00019

70

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

calendar year

birth

s

CA Births (DOF) LA County Births (DOF) LAUSD Births (LAUSD)

ForecastActual

19

LA County and LAUSD Births as Share of CA Births

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

calendar year

% b

irths

LAUSD births as % of LACO LACO Births as % of CA LAUSD Births as % of CA births

ForecastActual

20

The Los Angeles Unified School District:

Enrolled 688,138 students in grades K-12 in SY08-09Is second only to New York City Public Schools in size (within the U.S.A.)Covers 710 square milesServes all or part of 28 cities and multiple unincorporated areasServes over 40% of LA County’s general & school-aged populationsHad a $13.17 billion total School District Budget in SY05-06Had a $19.2 billion new school construction and repair program, the largest in U.S. history, scheduled to be completed in 2012In SY08-09, was composed of:

– 885 K-12 Schools and Centers – 194 Adult, Special and Occupational Schools and Centers– 79 Independent K-12 Charters and Centers– 36,767 Regular Teachers– 40,514 Administrators, Support and Classified Staff

21

Data Sources

• Los Angeles Unified School District, Student Information Systems, Enrolled Student Norm Day Data, SY1989 –SY2008

• Los Angeles Unified School District, Master Planning and Demographics, Historical District-Wide Enrollment, SY1961 – SY1988

California Department of Education, Educational Demographics Office,California Public Schools- County Enrollment by Grade [Computer File], data downloaded May 25, 2009, http://dq.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/dataquest.asp

California Department of Education, Educational Demographics Office, California Public Schools- District Enrollment by Grade [Computer File], data downloaded May 25, 2009 , http://dq.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/dataquest.asp

California Department of Education, Educational Demographics Office, California Private School Directory by Year [Computer File], data downloaded May 25, 2009, http://dq.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/dataquest.asp

California Department of Education, Educational Demographics Office, California Public Schools- State Enrollment by Grade [Computer File], data downloaded May 25, 2009, http://dq.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/dataquest.asp

Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Office of Health and Assessment and Epidemiology, Data Collection & Analysis Unit. Birth Records.

For further information: Master Planning and Demographics, valerie.edwards@lausd.net, 213-893-6850

22

Los Angeles Unified School DistrictDavid L. Brewer, Superintendent

About the Master Planning and Demographics UnitRena Perez, DirectorThe Los Angeles Unified School District is the nation’s second largest public school system, serving approximately 688,000 children in grades K-12. The Master Planning and Demographics Unit supports the Los Angeles Unified School District's mission to educate students through its dedication to the research and analysis utilized in the planning for the optimal utilization of existing schools and determining the need for new school facilities. For more information, please visit us on the web at www.lausd.net or www.laschools.org/employee/mpd/.

About the AuthorsValerie Edwards, Chief Enrollment Analysis Coordinator Ms. Edwards leads and oversees all demographic research and data analysis for LAUSD's Master Planning and Demographics Unit, where she is in charge of strategic planning and coordination of demographic analysis and enrollment projections in support of LAUSD's $14 billion facilities Strategic Execution Plan. She is currently directing the automation of enrollment projection procedures for the modeling of geographic attendance boundary distribution and simulation of school choice. Ms. Edwards has been a frequent participant at Population Association of America's (PAA) Annual Meetings, serving as session organizer, presenter, panelist and discussant. She is a member the Southern California Association of Governments' (SCAG) Plans & Programs Technical Advisory Committee. She holds a Master’s degree in City Planning from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Mary Ehrenthal Prichard, Demographic Research and Planning Analyst Ms. Prichard’s work focuses on the production of short and long range enrollment forecasts for the District’s 600+ schools and the production of specialized demographic research and analysis, including the analysis of internal LAUSD and general population demographic data. She has worked extensively with spatially referenced U.S. Census data within a GIS environment. Ms. Prichard has served for a number of years in adjunct faculty positions for community colleges in the Los Angeles region as well as at California State University at Los Angeles. She served as President of the Los Angeles Geographical Society from 2002 to 2004. She holds B.A. and M.A. degrees in the field of Geography from California State University at Los Angeles.