SNOWPACK Modeling at the CAIC

Colorado Avalanche Information Center

CAIC’s Modeling History

• Manual weather obs for highway operations from 1950 in some areas and 1995 along most sections

• Formal database of automated wx data began in 2007

• CAIC WRF simulations became operational in 2010

• CAIC SNOWPACK simulations began in 2012

CAIC WRF

• Weather Research and Forecasting Model• Nested grids

– 12km over western US (230x200x37)– 4km over Colorado (187x187x37)

• 84 hr forecast, 4 times a day• Model run on two, 16-core computers

CAIC WRF

• Initialized with LAPS (Local Analysis and Prediction System)– Uses RAP (Rapid Refresh model) as background– Incorporates CAIC and MADIS datasets

• Forecasts use NAM 13km for lateral boundary

SNOWPACK

• Off-the-shelf snowpack model from SLF– Similar to model developed by Metero France

• Forced by either weather obs or weather model

• Used operationally by SLF Avalanche Warning group

• ASARC developed operational tool for CAC

2012-13 Density Evolution at RMP

CAIC SNOWPACK Effort

• 2012-13 season: SNOWPACK simulation of cover on Red Mountain Pass from CSAS Swamp Angel study site

• 2013-14 season: SNOWPACK simulations driven by observations for– Red Mountain Pass– Grand Mesa– Arapahoe Basin– Cameron Pass

CAIC Modeling Effort

• 2013-14 season: SNOWPACK simulations driven by CAIC WRF model data– Simulations every 6 hrs– 1 simulation for every WRF grid cell over 2700 m

• 3599 simulations

– Current visualization• Snowpack temperature• Snowpack density• Snowpack grain size

Questions?