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Calamander\'s global economic outlook Q1 2011

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  • Copyright 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.

    Snow White

    Money, Oil & PoliticsGlobal Economic Outlook Q1, 2011

    Roman ScottManaging Director, Calamander Capital

    Economic SpokesmanBritish Chamber of Commerce Singapore

    Sponsored by

    20th January 2011Theatre, Tanglin Club

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    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    F

    2011

    F

    Advanced Economies GDP Growth(% change y-o-y)

    4.0%

    2.4%

    2

    The Canary in the Coal Mine

    Singapore GDP Growth(% change y-o-y)

    Copyright 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    The Canary in the Coal Mine

    -12-8-4048

    121620

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    Investment Spend% (y-o-y)

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    No

    v-08

    Jan

    -09

    Mar

    -09

    May

    -09

    Jul-

    09

    Sep

    -09

    No

    v-09

    Jan

    -10

    Mar

    -10

    May

    -10

    Jul-

    10

    Sep

    -10

    No

    v-10

    Industrial Production% (y-o-y)

    -12-606

    121824

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    Exports% (y-o-y)

    -10-6-226

    10141822

    1Q-0

    8

    2Q-0

    8

    3Q-0

    8

    4Q-0

    8

    1Q-0

    9

    2Q-0

    9

    3Q-0

    9

    4Q-0

    9

    Financial Services% (y-o-y)

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    Global Economy

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    19

    80

    19

    81

    19

    82

    19

    83

    19

    84

    19

    85

    19

    86

    19

    87

    19

    88

    19

    89

    19

    90

    19

    91

    19

    92

    19

    93

    19

    94

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    F

    20

    11

    F

    Source: IMF

    Annual change (%)World GDP FY 2011 Forecast

    4.22% (IMF)3.3% (World Bank & HSBC)

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    OECD Leading Economic Indicators

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    No

    v-0

    0

    No

    v-0

    1

    No

    v-0

    2

    No

    v-0

    3

    No

    v-0

    4

    No

    v-0

    5

    No

    v-06

    No

    v-0

    7

    No

    v-0

    8

    No

    v-0

    9

    No

    v-1

    0

    UK US China Euro area OECD Total

    Global leading indicators12-month rate of change of the trend restored Composite Leading Indicators

    11.5%

    2.7%1.3%-0.6%-3.6%

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    6

    6

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    US KPIs

    UnemploymentRate

    Business Spending

    Corporate Earnings

    GDP

    Retail Sales

    Business Confidence

    Consumer Price Index

    Inventories

    +0.5% (m-o-m) Dec10

    Consumer Confidence

    -0.4% (m-o-m)to 9.4% (Dec10)

    Fed Fund Rate

    Manufacturing

    -3.3%(m-o-m) to

    Dec10(ConferenceBoard Index) 0.25%

    +0.6% (m-o-m)Dec10

    led to +6.9%(y-o-y), largest

    since 1999

    +2.6% (q-o-q)

    for Q310

    +26% to USD 1.64 Tn

    (y-o-y) in Q310

    +0.2% (m-o-m)Nov10

    +4.9%(m-o-m)Oct10

    +0.7% (m-o-m)

    Nov10 for manufacturing

    orders

    +0.7% to 57pts(m-o-m) in

    Dec10(ISM PMI)

    Leading Economic Index

    +1.5%(m-o-m) in

    Dec10

    Current Account Deficit

    +3.2% to USD 127.2 Bn

    or -3.4% of GDP 2010

    Q310

    Consumer Expenditure

    +3.9% (q-o-q)Q310

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    Retail Sales

    +5.4% (m-o-m)Dec10

    +5 % (m-o-m)Dec10

    +3.2% (y-o-y)Dec10

    +15% (y-o-y)Dec10

    +11.8 % (y-o-y)Dec10

    +8.4 % (y-o-y)Dec10

    +1.5 % (y-o-y)Dec10

    +10.4 % (y-o-y)Dec10

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    Tech

    +71% (y-o-y) to

    USD 6 Bn

    +48% (y-o-y) to

    USD 3.4 Bn

    +9% (y-o-y) to

    USD 5.3 Bn

    Profit Growth in Q410

    9

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    Manufacturing Sales Growth

    7.5% (y-o-y) to 224,185 units

    in Dec10

    16% (y-o-y)to 100,702 units

    in Dec10

    6.7% (y-o-y)to 190,976 units

    in Dec10

    574 planes sold after cancellation worth of USD 74 Bn in 2010

    510 deliveriesUSD 39.9 Bn of total revenue

    530 planes sold after cancellations worth of USD 49 Bn.

    462 deliveries

    61 orders worth of GBP 3.2 Bnof its Trent 900 engines

    with British Airways Copyright 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 10

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    Exports

    9

    6

    -10

    12

    8

    -3

    1

    -11

    5 6

    24

    11

    -18

    29

    16

    9

    4

    -9

    18

    5

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    2007

    2008

    2009

    20

    10

    F

    20

    11

    F

    % change (y-o-y)

    Export Volume Growth

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    Source: US BEA

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    19

    91

    19

    92

    19

    93

    19

    94

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    118%

    % o

    f D

    isp

    osa

    ble

    Inco

    me

    US Household Debt

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    19

    91

    19

    92

    19

    93

    1994

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    2003

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    % o

    f D

    isp

    osa

    ble

    Inco

    me

    6%

    US Personal Savings Rate

    US Household Debt

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    Auto Industry Signals the The New Normal

    9

    11

    13

    15

    17

    19

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    No. of new car sales (in mil)

    11.6 mil

    2.8

    3

    3.2

    3.4

    3.6

    3.8

    4

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    No. of new car sales (in mil)

    2.9 mil1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    No. of new car sales (in mil)

    2 mil

    0

    4

    8

    12

    16

    20

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    No. of new car sales (in mil)

    18 mil

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    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    No

    v-63

    No

    v-64

    No

    v-65

    No

    v-66

    No

    v-67

    No

    v-68

    No

    v-69

    No

    v-70

    No

    v-71

    No

    v-72

    No

    v-73

    No

    v-74

    No