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Snoqualmie Valley School District Demographic Trends and Enrollment Projections Update
William L. (“Les”) Kendrick Ph.D.
Educational Data Solutions, LLC
February 11, 2020
Regional Enrollment Trends
Trends and Projections-Feb 2020 3
Oct10 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19
Snohomish 109,457 108,724 107,891 108,186 108,242 108,277 109,058 108,848 109,157 109,777
Pierce 128,698 128,413 126,930 127,332 128,501 130,117 131,366 132,940 133,571 134,853
Kitsap 37,156 36,751 35,975 35,547 35,451 35,675 35,527 35,762 35,464 35,981
King 259,516 262,319 266,260 270,546 275,167 278,960 283,161 286,801 286,824 289,942
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Public School Enrollment for the Puget SoundKing, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish County
Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
4,188
6,1175,668
6,083
5,333
665
5,562
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2012 to 2013 2013 to 2014 2014 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017 2017-2018 2018-2019
Annual Net Change in K-12 EnrollmentKing, Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish Combined
Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
Annual Net Change in Enrollment by County Since 2012
(Numbers may have changed since the original reporting date)
5
4,2864,621
3,7934,201
3,643
23
3,118
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2012 to2013
2013 to2014
2014 to2015
2015 to2016
2016 to2017
2017-2018 2018-2019
King
-766
242 224
-148
235
-298
517
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2012 to2013
2013 to2014
2014 to2015
2015 to2016
2016 to2017
2017-2018 2018-2019
Kitsap
402
1,169
1,616
1,249
1,665
631
1,282
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2012 to2013
2013 to2014
2014 to2015
2015 to2016
2016 to2017
2017-2018 2018-2019
Pierce
266
8535
781
-210
309
645
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2012 to2013
2013 to2014
2014 to2015
2015 to2016
2016 to2017
2017-2018 2018-2019
Snohomish
King County Public School Districts
Change in Enrollment Between
Oct 2018 to Oct 2019
Trends and Projections-Feb 2020 6
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Lake W
ashin
gton
Seat
tle
North
shore
Auburn
Tahom
a
Charte
r Sch
ools
Issa
quah
Snoqual
mie V
alle
y
Enum
claw
Kent
Shore
line
Tech
nica
l Colle
ge
Bellevu
e
Skyk
omish
Vashon Is
land
Mer
cer I
sland
River
view
High
line
Tukw
ila
Fede
ral W
ay
Renton
Change Oct18 to Oct19
Snoqualmie Valley
Enrollment Trends
8 Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
Snoqualmie Valley Enrollment Trend
Headcount Enrollment 1999-2018 October P223 Enrollment
Numbers may have changed since they were originally reported
4339 4469 44934652 4818 4890
52365586 5674 5787
5952 6019 6068 6204 62786477
6649 6750 6781 67987021
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Oct-
99
Oct-
00
Oct -
01
Oct-
02
Oct-
03
Oct0
4
Oct0
5
Oct0
6
Oct0
7
Oct0
8
Oct0
9
Oct1
0
Oct1
1
Oct1
2
Oct1
3
Oct -
14
Oct-
15
Oct-
16
Oct -
17
Oct -
18
Oct-
19
Accuracy of Medium Range One Year Forecast by Grade
Trends and Projections-Feb 2020 9
Projected Versus Actual (Medium Range Forecast)
Project Actual Diff
K 553 604 51
1 575 554 -21
2 548 550 2
3 576 573 -3
4 563 567 4
5 582 585 3
6 556 575 19
7 580 594 14
8 579 571 -8
9 516 525 9
10 556 558 2
11 367 413 46
12 285 352 67
Total 6836 7021 185
K-5 3398 3433 35
6-8 1715 1740 25
9-12 1723 1848 125
10 Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
Number of Full Time Running Start Students in the
Snoqualmie Valley School District Source: OSPI P223 Enrollment Reports (October Enrollment)
6277
95
152
223 256280
180
0
100
200
300
400
500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Birth Trends
Average Annual Births by County Source: State of Washington Department of Health Birth Files
10,0168,466
9,352
22,173
3,034 2,973
24,899
11,322
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
King County Kitsap County Pierce County Snohomish County
Avg. Annual Births 1996-2005 Avg. Annual Births 2006-2015
Trends and Projections-Feb 2020 12
13 Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
King County Births Source: Washington State Health Department
Next year’s cohort
21,64622,212 22,007
22,48721,778 21,863
22,431 22,874 22,680
24,24424,899 25,190 25,057
24,514 24,630 25,032 24,91025,343 25,487
26,01125,273
24,337
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
King County Birth Projections (Based on the Average of 2015 to 2018 Fertility Rates
and Projected Growth in Females in Their Child-Bearing Years
Using the OFM Medium Range Population Forecast)
Actual Birth Cohorts
eligible for school
between 2018-2023
Projected cohorts for 2024 to 2035 Enrollment
Projections
14
24910 25343 2548726011
2527324337
25073 25237 25029 2480725681 25477 25373 25526 25685 25848 26015 26326
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Population Trends
County Population Growth King County
Source: Office of Financial Management of the State of Washington
Projections for 2020 and 2025 are from the Growth Management Medium Range
Projections Released by the State in December 2017
OFM Estimates Projections
Trends and Projections-Feb 2020 16
Census
20102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025
King County 1,931,249 1,942,600 1,957,000 1,981,900 2,017,250 2,052,800 2,105,100 2,153,700 2,190,200 2,226,300 2,231,408 2,355,571
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
County Net Population Change King County
Source: Office of Financial Management of the State of Washington
Projections for 2020 and 2025 are from the Growth Management Medium Range
Projections Released by the State in December 2017
OFM Estimates Projection
Trends and Projections-Feb 2020 17
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
King County 11,351 14,400 24,900 35,350 35,550 52,300 48,600 36,500 20,604 24,832
2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018
Annual Net
Change
2018-2020
Annual Net
Change
2020-2025
18 Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
Snoqualmie Valley Population Forecast Based on the Puget Sound Regional Council’s Forecasts for the Cities
of North Bend, Snoqualmie and Surrounding Areas
(Updated with Latest Data from PSRC)
19,339
25,885
35,044
41,00044,000
47,30049,800 51,000
3.4% 3.5%
1.7% 1.5% 1.5%1.1%
0.5%0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Population Annual Net Change
Housing Trends
20
Home Sales in the Snoqualmie Valley School District
2005 to 2019 Source: Metrostudy Compilation of Assessor Database Data
Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Existing Home Resale 1117 898 722 396 348 386 363 613 759 818 990 962 908 883 818
Bank REO 14 8 5 26 64 95 144 129 94 87 73 57 51 17 16
New Construction 411 368 322 191 104 118 97 164 210 209 122 65 138 174 111
Foreclosure 29 245 43 40 91 122 156 93 109 74 63 53 14 6 6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
21 Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
Residential Permits by Year (Single Family) Source: Data Provided by the Planning Departments
City of Snoqualmie and City of North Bend
Multi-Family permits are not displayed in this chart
North Bend has issued no multi-family permits until recently (2018). These are displayed as
future development on the next page.
The City of Snoqualmie issued no multi-family permits in 2018 and 191 in 2019.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Snoqualmie 111 129 126 100 173 25 101 82 3 4
North Bend 10 11 70 123 33 24 35 119 114 85
0
100
200
300
22 Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
Housing Units Planned for the Next Few Years
Units in the Pipeline (Estimated Impact: 2020-2024) Source: Data Provided by the Planning Departments
City of Snoqualmie and City of North Bend (See Appendix A for Details)
The Number of Units in Unincorporated Areas Comes from MetroStudy/New Home Trends
Notes: These numbers reflect developments (some of which were permitted in 2019) that are likely
to impact the District between 2020 and 2024.
444
191
635
503
15 23
541
0
100
200300
400500
600
700800
900
10001100
1200
North Bend Snoqualmie Unincorporated Area Total
MF SF
23 Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
Simple Forecast (How Many Students Likely to be Added Over the Next Five Years)This assumes all of the impacts from development would occur by 2024.
Student
Housing in Pipeline Generation Students Enrollment Project Project
NB Snoq. Unicorp. Total Rate Per Unit Added Oct 2019 2020 2024
Single Family 503 15 23 541 0.708 383
Multi-Family 444 191 635 0.24 152
1176 535 7021 7128 7556
Note: Student generation rates represent the average of the rates found in Issaquah and Lake Washington used
in the Snoqualmie School District Capital Facilities Plan. Actual rates could be higher or lower.
Student Growth by City
Students
Generated
North Bend SF 503 356
MF 444 107
947 463
Snoqualmie SF 15 11
MF 191 46
206 56
24 Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
Estimates of the Number of Housing Units that Could
be Added Between 2024 and 2035
(Based on City Comprehensive Plans) Note: The actual numbers could be higher for the District since there is and
will continue to be development in unincorporated areas.
These are approximate estimates rounded to the lowest multiple of a fifty. Please see Appendix B for more detail. Also
please note that long term forecasts assume additional housing development in the unincorporated areas.
1,650
850
2,500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
North Bend Snoqualmie Total
Housing Units and Students Per Household Census Data, 2019 Estimate, an Estimate of Future Housing units, and an Estimate of Students Per House Over Time
Trends and Projections-Feb 2020 25
Census2000
2010Census
2019Estimate
2025 2030 2035 2040
Housing Units 9,965 13,693 15,173 16,549 17,299 18,049 18,798
Snoqualmie Valley Enrollment 4,469 6,019 7,021 7613 7958 8122 8365
Public School Students Per House 0.45 0.44 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.45
9,965
13,69315,173
16,549 17,299 18,049 18,798
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,000
Final Enrollment Projections
By Grade Level
Low, Medium, and High
27 Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
Snoqualmie Valley District Forecast
Alternative Forecasts 2020-2040 Headcount
Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Oct-24 Oct-25 Oct-26 Oct-27 Oct-28 Oct-29 Oct-30 Oct-31 Oct-32 Oct-33 Oct-34 Oct-35 Oct-36 Oct-37 Oct-38 Oct-39 Oct-40
Low 6,798 7,021 7,099 7,183 7,213 7,243 7,259 7,275 7,296 7,302 7,348 7,379 7,403 7,440 7,444 7,465 7,500 7,551 7,595 7,632 7,662 7,686 7,711
Medium 6,798 7,021 7,177 7,335 7,434 7,529 7,604 7,674 7,744 7,791 7,875 7,937 7,986 8,041 8,053 8,074 8,110 8,165 8,215 8,256 8,290 8,317 8,346
High 6,798 7,021 7,254 7,489 7,660 7,824 7,963 8,091 8,216 8,310 8,438 8,538 8,616 8,693 8,715 8,735 8,773 8,831 8,887 8,934 8,972 9,003 9,036
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
28 Trends and Projections-Feb 2020
Snoqualmie Valley District Forecast
Alternative Forecasts 2020-2040 FTE
Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Oct-24 Oct-25 Oct-26 Oct-27 Oct-28 Oct-29 Oct-30 Oct-31 Oct-32 Oct-33 Oct-34 Oct-35 Oct-36 Oct-37 Oct-38 Oct-39 Oct-40
Low 6,727 6,922 7,003 7,088 7,118 7,144 7,160 7,176 7,199 7,206 7,252 7,282 7,300 7,335 7,340 7,363 7,400 7,451 7,494 7,530 7,560 7,582 7,606
Medium 6,727 6,922 7,080 7,238 7,336 7,426 7,501 7,570 7,640 7,687 7,770 7,831 7,872 7,923 7,935 7,958 7,997 8,052 8,100 8,140 8,174 8,199 8,226
High 6,727 6,922 7,157 7,390 7,559 7,717 7,854 7,981 8,104 8,198 8,324 8,420 8,490 8,560 8,581 8,603 8,644 8,703 8,757 8,803 8,840 8,869 8,900
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
Consultant Background and Experience
Mr. Kendrick was the demographer for the Seattle Public schools from 1990 to 1997. In that capacity he provided enrollment projections to facilitate staffing and facilities planning and helped with the management of the student assignment system He also provided analysis of the relationship between demographics and test scores.
Since 1997 he has worked as a consultant providing demographic analysis and enrollment projections for local school districts. Over the past 20 years his clients have included the following Districts: Bainbridge Island, Bellingham, Bellevue, Bethel, Bremerton, Central Kitsap, Edmonds, Federal Way, Marysville, Mercer Island, Monroe, Olympia, Seattle, South Kitsap, Renton, Shoreline, Snoqualmie Valley, and Sumner. He also does annual enrollment projection work for Everett, Highline, Mukilteo, Northshore, and Tacoma, He has worked in all 4 counties in the Puget Sound and is familiar with the different trends and patterns across the region.
