Upload
tucker
View
35
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Smuggler Interdiction Model Based On Yosemite. Major Ed Masotti. Movement. N. The Model. Dual st. Assumptions. Road Blocks Require S ustained logistical support Are ineffective around smuggler’s Haven Add a delay Patrols Can patrol along all arcs Will capture the smuggler. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Smuggler Interdiction Model Based On Yosemite
Major Ed Masotti
N
Movement
4
The Model
Dual
st
5
Assumptions• Road Blocks • Require Sustained logistical support• Are ineffective around smuggler’s
Haven• Add a delay
• Patrols• Can patrol along all arcs• Will capture the smuggler
Smuggler Haven
Coalition Friendly
N
Movement
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
Smuggler’s Haven
NE2
NE1
Coalition Friendly
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
Nodes
W4
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
Nodes and Edges
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W4
W3
W1
CP3
N12K
38K11K
9.5K16K9K
12K6K
5.5K 13.5K 18K
11.5K
19K
19K
20K19K
19K
9K4K
10K
15K
26K 10.5K
13K11K8K
12K
11K9K
10K
24K
14K8.5K
10K
13K19K
5.5K
12K
10K
7.5K
19K10K
5K
16.5K9K
13K
16.5K
5.5K
10K
6K
W4
Full Model
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W4
W3
W1
CP3
N
12K38K11K
9.5K16K9K
12K6K
5.5K 13.5K 18K
11.5K
19K
19K
20K19K
19K
9K4K
10K
15K
26K 10.5K
13K11K8K
12K
11K9K
10K
24K
14K8.5K
10K
13K19K
5.5K
12K
10K
7.5K
19K10K
5K
16.5K9K
13K
16.5K
5.5K
10K
6K
W4
Full Model
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W4
W3
W1
CP3
12K38K11K
9.5K16K9K
12K6K
5.5K 13.5K 18K
11.5K
19K
19K
20K19K
19K
9K4K
10K
15K
26K 10.5K
13K11K8K
12K
11K9K
10K
24K
14K8.5K
10K
13K19K
5.5K
12K
10K
7.5K
19K10K
5K
16.5K9K
13K
16.5K
5.5K
10K
6K
W4
Full Model
E1
NE2
19K
Arc ModelingN
W4
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
Patrol Edges
W4
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
Road Block Edges
W4
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
Initial Path
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Series1
Operator Resilience Curve RoadBlocks Only
# of RoadBlocks
Prob
abili
ty o
f Eva
sion
Road Blocks Only
• Why the jump between 7 and 8 roadblocks?
• After 8 POE steadily declines
• Network is saturated at 21
• Can not Completely stop smuggler
W4
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
7 Road Blocks
W4
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
8 Road Blocks
Patrols Only
• Steady Decline until between 5 and 6.
• Network is saturated at 6
• Can Completely stop smuggler
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9Series1
Operator Resilience Curve Patrols Only
# of Patrols
Prob
abili
ty o
f Eva
sion
W4
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
5 Patrols
W4
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
6 Patrols
Road Blocks and Patrols
• Combinations effective but specific
• Network is saturated at 6 patrols
• Can Completely stop smuggler
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1Series1
Operator Resilience Curve RoadBlocks and Patrols
# of RoadBlocks, # of Patrols,
Prob
abili
ty o
f Eva
sion
W4
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
Bad Weather Model
Bad Weather
• Bad Weather favors Coalition
• Only Need I Patrol
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Series1
Operator Resilience Curve RoadBlocks and Patrols (Bad Weather)
# of RoadBlocks, # of Patrols,
Prob
abili
ty o
f Eva
sion
W4
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
No Patrols or Road Blocks
W4
N2
N3
CP1
CP2
CP4
CP5
E1
N4
C1
NE2
NE1
C2
E3
CP6
S1
S5
CP9
S4
E2
N1
CP8
S2
W6
W2
W5
S3
NE3
CP7
W3
W1
CP3
N
W4
1 Patrol
• If you have the ability to maximize patrols do so. – Best case is 6 patrols
• Otherwise use this as a tool to determine tradeoff versus cost of each type of asset.
• A useful tool for commander’s• Versatile Model– adaptable to many regions of the world. – Can expand to include multiple assets. – Can easily accommodate a larger
network.
Conclusions
• Analysis of Varying delay based trafficability
• Weighting locations that the smuggler would tend towards or avoid
• Differences by season• Expansion of different types of
assets
With More Time
QUESTIONS?