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SMU Senior Design Project: Southwest Airlines. Spring 2010 EMIS 4395-001 . May 2010. Team On-Time Performance. Stacy Moskowitz Brandon Cabello Courtney Guenard. Agenda. What makes them happy? Southwest: The Big Picture Is your line late? Say ‘No’ to late airports! Recommendations. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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SMU Senior Design Project: Southwest Airlines
Spring 2010EMIS 4395-001
May 2010
2
Team On-Time Performance
• Stacy Moskowitz• Brandon Cabello• Courtney Guenard
3
Agenda
• What makes them happy?• Southwest: The Big Picture• Is your line late?• Say ‘No’ to late airports!• Recommendations
4
WHAT MAKES THEM HAPPY?
5
We partnered with Southwest Airlines optimization group to tackle on-time performance
• Southwest uses a flight schedule to indicate a whole day’s worth of flying by line
• They wanted our assistance to improve their forecast of the on-time performance of entire scheduled line– Historically, on-time performance has been measured by a leg-by-leg
basis– Southwest provided our group with historical turn and block time
data for all flights from January 2009
Turn time
DFWORD
Turn time
LAX
Sample: Line Schedule
6
SOUTHWEST: THE BIG PICTURE
7
Today, Southwest operates 537 aircrafts between 68 cities
Image Source: Southwest Airline Systems Map 2008
8
Based on our data, here we show the top 10 airports by departure
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
6707
55565284
4377379237023393338832973190
Southwest’s Top Ten Airports – Number of Departures
Orlando
Southwest’s Top Ten Airports – Number of Departures
Denver Los An-geles Oakland Dallas
LoveHoustonHobby
Las Ve-gas
ChicagoMidwayPhoenix
Balti-moreWash.
Source: Jan 09 Flight Data; Southwest AirlinesAnalysis by: B Cabello, S Moskowitz, C Guenard
On-time performance at these airports is crucial from a customer service and cost perspective
9
Next, we segmented the data into legs and lines
City 1
City 2
City 3
City 4
City 5
City 6
Line OAK FLL AUS OAK
Line LAX BUF BWI SAT ELP
Line SJC RDU BNA ONT SJC LAS
Line HOU OAK SEA MCI MCO
Line BWI SAN LAS MDW ALB
Line LAX MCO PHX SEA
Line HOU RDU BNA LAS CMH
Southwest’s Flights OverviewSouthwest’s overall count of lines and legs
LineLeg0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
15718
78599
These two segments were analyzed for on-time performance
Start End
Leg OAK FLL
Leg LAX BUF
10
As a whole, 56% of Southwest’s flights arrive on-time to their destination
Late34363On-time
44236
Southwest’s On-time Performance (by Leg)
Southwest’s overall count of on-time and late flights
Late44%On-time
56%
Southwest’s On-time Performance (by Leg)
Southwest’s overall on-time and late flights as a %
Source: Jan 09 Flight Data; Southwest AirlinesAnalysis by: B Cabello, S Moskowitz, C Guenard
11
Here we measured lateness by line (full day’s worth of flying)
Southwest’s Lateness CountSouthwest’s overall count of on-time and late flights
Southwest’s Lateness %Southwest’s overall on-time and late flights a %
Line0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
On-time12496
Late3222
Line0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
On-time 80%
Late20%
12
After researching lateness, we also measured a lines ability to recover
Recovered10%
Did Not90%
Southwest’s Recovery PerformanceSouthwest’s overall recovery % for all lines
Table of Late Lines which Recovered (not all shown)
Line OAK FLL AUS OAK
Line LAX BUF BWI SAT ELP
Line SJC RDU BNA ONT SJC LAS
Line HOU OAK SEA MCI MCO
Line BWI SAN LAS MDW ALB
Line LAX MCO PHX SEA
Line HOU RDU BNA LAS CMH
Line AUS SJC PHX MHT
Line SFO FLL MCI LAX
Line PHX HOU SAT MCO
13
IS YOUR LINE LATE?
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Our research shows over 3200 lines experience at least one-late leg
Southwest’s Lateness CountSouthwest’s overall count of on-time and late lines
Line0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
On-time 12496
Late3222
This analysis led us to explore our next area of investigation; airports
Table of Late Lines which Recovered (not all shown)
Line SMF BWI BNA
Line OAK MDW BWI STL DAL
Line PHX MDW PIT TPA
Line FLL ABQ MCO MSY DAL BHM
Line SMF PHX MHT TPA FLL
Line SEA LAS MCI IND
Line SJC LAS BWI ISP PBI
Line BWI ORF MDW
Line SMF MCO BWI
Line SJC SFO LAX MCI
= delayed departure = on-time arrival resulting in recovery
15
SAY ‘NO’ TO LATE AIRPORTS
16
We began this study by counting the number of on-time and late arrivals by airport
Count of Late/On-time Arrivals by Airport
BUFMDW
PDXDEN BUR
AMAHRL
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000on-time count
late count
Probability Late Flights by Airport
BUFMDW
PDXDEN BUR
AMAHRL
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
17
Statistical analysis of lateness by airport shows a leftward skew
Airport Lateness Frequency Histogram
0-36% 36-42%
42-47%
47-68%
05
10152025303540
Airport Lateness Frequency Box Plot
January-090%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
average
outliers outliers
18
This chart shows the 20 best and worst airports
BUFDTWCMH
MDWBWIFL
LPDX
SLCPITDENDAL
PHXBUR
JANTU
LAMA
MAFLB
BHRL
CRP0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
68%65%
61%56%55%55%
51%51%51%50%49%48%
32%31%29%28%23%22%22%
13%
Southwest’s 20 Best and Worst Airports – Lateness Fre-quency
Airports listed in red are one of Southwest’s Top 10 Airports (by volume)
19
RECOMMENDATIONS
20
To improve Southwest flight schedules, we would like to make the following recommendations
Research Category Recap Recommendations
Line Analysis
• 20% of SW lines are late• Line lateness led us to explore trouble some airports• Although solving for airport lateness is important, a lines ability to recover is valuable
• Further analysis on Southwest’s best and worst airports would lend address turn time and overall line performance; • Recovery airports may hold the key to improving turn-time at underperforming airports
Airport Analysis
• Airport lateness ranged from 13% - 68%• A histogram showed us the outlier airports; with 5 top airports included in the high side