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Our belief is that quality historical academic data enables strong decisions
We use information and technology to create the best possible decision-making process and outcome
We want the confidence that we’re doing the right thing and continuously work to improve the investment journey
1 2 3
Investment Philosophy
Building Confidence in Value
4
1.Identify the investable Universe
Identify the investable Universe
Avoid permanent loss of capital
Identify cheapness Avoid
value trap Invest with conviction
2.Avoid permanent loss of capital
3.Identify cheapness 4.
Avoid valuetrap
5.Invest with conviction
1. Start with ~ 1000 largest firms
2. Remove land mines (fraud, manipulation & bankruptcy (~10%)
3. Focus on top decile companies ranked on EBIT/TEV
5. Focus on ~ 120 cheapest companies with the strongest balance sheets diversified across Canada, US and Developed markets
4. Apply quality scores using fundamentalmeasures of business strength
Building Confidence in Momentum
5
2.CoreMomentumScreen
3.QualityScreen
4.SeasonalityScreen
5.Invest with conviction
1. Start with ~ 1000 largest firms; > $2B Mkt. cap
2. Select top decile base on Price Momentum
3. Identify smooth momentum (50%)
5. Focus on ~ 130 highest quality momentum stocks diversified across Canada, US and Developed markets
4. Apply seasonality rebalancing1.Identify the investable Universe
Trend OverlayBehavioural Economics
6
Prospect Theory +ve
- ve
• Loss Aversion and poor decisions• Endowment Effect and cutting losses• Protection and Risk Adjusted Returns• Improved investment outcomes
Prospect theory introduced by Kahneman and Tversky in 1979
Trend Overlay
7
Time Series Momentum (Absolute performance)
Total return of underlying market index relative to T-bill
Rule 1 Simple Moving
Average (Relative performance)
Current Price of underlying index relative to its moving average
Rule 2
50% weight each
2 Trend Rules
Time Series Momentum Moving Average
Applied monthly at Asset Class Level (Canada, US and International)
Trend Overlay Example in Canada
88
Both Triggers100% Short Term Canadian Bonds
One Rule is Triggered50% allocation to Canadian Equity
No Triggers100% allocation to Canadian Equity
Canadian EquityTime Series Momentum Moving Average
Both Triggers0% Allocation to Factors
One Rule is Triggered50% Value & Momentum
No Triggers100% Value & Momentum
Canadian Value & Momentum ExposureTime Series Momentum Moving Average
Three portfolio strategies
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Developed Equity, 33%
US Equity, 34%
Canadian Equity, 33%
Global Market Cap Portfolio Global Value Momentum Portfolio
Global Market Cap Portfolio is equally weighted between TSX S&P, S&P500 and MSCI EAFE Indices Global Value Momentum Portfolio is equally weighted between the Alpha Architect quantitative value and momentum indices for Canada, US and Developed Markets Global Value Momentum with Trend is the Alpha Architect Global Value Momentum and Trend for Canada Index (Gross)
Global Value Momentum with Trend
Three portfolio strategiesReturns in CAD for January 1995 to July 2019
10
Global Market Cap Global Value Momentum Global Value Momentum with Trend
Annualized Returns 8.08% 12.80% 12.28%
Growth of $10,000 $67,499 $193,099 $172,575
Standard Deviation 11.43% 13.81% 9.65%
Sharpe Ratio 0.54 0.78 1.02
Number of positive periods 191 out of 295(64.75%)
196 out of 295(66.44%)
200 out of 295(67.80%)
Max Drawdown -41.41%(Jun-07 to Feb-09)
-42.15%(Jun-08 to Feb-09)
-14.79%(May-11 to Sep -11)
Time to Recovery 4 years 3 Years 11 Months 1 year 5 months
Peak to Peak 5 Years 9 months 4 Years 8 months 1 Year 10 months
Global Market Cap Portfolio is equally weighted between TSX S&P, S&P500 and MSCI EAFE Indices; Global Value Momentum Portfolio is equally weighted between the Alpha Architect quantitative value and momentum indices for Canada, US and Developed Markets; Global Value Momentum with Trend is the Alpha Architect Global Value Momentum and Trend for Canada Index (Gross). Data analysis done via Portfolio Visualizer. Returns and dollars expressed do not include any transaction costs of implementing these strategies.
Global Balanced Portfolio vs SBEA
11
100% Global
Balanced Portfolio
80/20GBP/SBEA
60/40GBP/SBEA
40/60GBP/SBEA
100% SBEA
Annualized returns(1995 – 2018)
7.37% 8.39% 9.37% 10.33% 12.17%
Annualized Std.(1995-2018)
7.32 7.30 7.57 8.08 9.65
Growth of $1 $5.51 $6.91 $8.59 $10.59 $15.75
Range of returns(Annual)
-14.7% to 19.6% -13.6% to 20.6% -12.5% to 24.28% -11.38% to 30.14% -9.52% to 41.87%
Maximum Drawdown -22.79% -21.24% -19.68% -18.09% -15.75%
Global Balanced portfolio consists of 60% Equity and 40% Fixed Income.: 20% S&P/TSX index, 20% Russell 3000 index and 20% MSCI EAFE(gross div) index., 40% FTSE TMX Canadian bond Index. Annually rebalanced. SBEA Index Gross consist of US and CAN Value and Momentum indices net of 2% frictional costs and Int’l Value and Mom net of 3% frictional costs.
Investment JourneyReturns Jan 1995 to July 2019
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In CAD. SBEA Index (Net) consists of GVMTC Index Gross adjusted for 1% frictional costs. GVMTC Index is annually rebalanced across QV, QM, IQV,IQM,CQV,CQM Indices (Net). ROBUST Trend manages a dynamic 0-100% stock/bond allocation component. Trend rules triggered monthly. The bond allocation is a Canada Treasury Bill Index prior to 1/1/2001, the iShares Core Canadian Short Term Bond Index ETF from 1/1/2001 to 1/31/2019, the Vanguard Canadian Aggregate Bond Index ETF from 2/1/2019 to 4/30/2019, and the iShares Core Canadian Short Term Bond Index ETF thereafter. Alpha Architect calculations through 1/31/2019; Solactive calculations thereafter. Solactive calculations use underlying indexes and individual stock constituents that are gross of underlying fees and therefore less conservative than the calculations prior to 1/31/2019. SBEA Benchmark is prospectus benchmark of 23.4% S&P/TSX Capped Composite index, 23.3% S&P500 Index, 23.3% MSCI EAFE Index, 30% S&P Canada T-Bill Index. Rebalanced monthly. Global Market Cap portfolio consists of 34% S&P500; 33% TSX and 33% MSCI EAFE index Data provided by Alpha Architect and Portfolio Visualizer
FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY
Trend Following works in major market collapses
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
1995
-119
95-5
1995
-919
96-1
1996
-519
96-9
1997
-119
97-5
1997
-919
98-1
1998
-519
98-9
1999
-119
99-5
1999
-920
00-1
2000
-520
00-9
2001
-120
01-5
2001
-920
02-1
2002
-520
02-9
2003
-120
03-5
2003
-920
04-1
2004
-520
04-9
2005
-120
05-5
2005
-920
06-1
2006
-520
06-9
2007
-120
07-5
2007
-920
08-1
2008
-520
08-9
2009
-120
09-5
2009
-920
10-1
2010
-520
10-9
2011
-120
11-5
2011
-920
12-1
2012
-520
12-9
2013
-120
13-5
2013
-920
14-1
2014
-520
14-9
2015
-120
15-5
2015
-920
16-1
2016
-520
16-9
2017
-120
17-5
2017
-920
18-1
2018
-520
18-9
2019
-120
19-5
Global Market Cap
SBEA Index Net
SBEA Benhmark
You still have to own risk in short market
corrections
Annual Returns
13
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Global Market Cap Portfolio (CAD) Global Value Momentum Portfolio Global Value Momentum with Trend
Global Market Cap Portfolio is equally weighted between TSX S&P, S&P500 and MSCI EAFE Indices; Global Value Momentum Portfolio is equally weighted between the Alpha Architect quantitative value and momentum indices for Canada, US and Developed Markets; Global Value Momentum with Trend is the Alpha Architect Global Value Momentum and Trend for Canada Index (Gross). Data analysis done via Portfolio Visualizer. Returns and dollars expressed do not include any transaction costs of implementing these strategies.
In Cad for Period: January 1995 to July 2019
Rolling 5 Year Returns
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Global Market Cap Global Value Momentum Global Value Momentum with Trend
Global Market Cap Portfolio is equally weighted between TSX S&P, S&P500 and MSCI EAFE Indices; Global Value Momentum Portfolio is equally weighted between the Alpha Architect quantitative value and momentum indices for Canada, US and Developed Markets; Global Value Momentum with Trend is the Alpha Architect Global Value Momentum and Trend for Canada Index (Gross). Data analysis done via Portfolio Visualizer. Returns and dollars expressed do not include any transaction costs of implementing these strategies.
In Cad for Period: January 1995 to July 2019
Historical Trend Off – Trend On
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1995
-01
1995
-07
1996
-01
1996
-07
1997
-01
1997
-07
1998
-01
1998
-07
1999
-01
1999
-07
2000
-01
2000
-07
2001
-01
2001
-07
2002
-01
2002
-07
2003
-01
2003
-07
2004
-01
2004
-07
2005
-01
2005
-07
2006
-01
2006
-07
2007
-01
2007
-07
2008
-01
2008
-07
2009
-01
2009
-07
2010
-01
2010
-07
2011
-01
2011
-07
2012
-01
2012
-07
2013
-01
2013
-07
2014
-01
2014
-07
2015
-01
2015
-07
2016
-01
2016
-07
2017
-01
2017
-07
2018
-01
2018
-07
2019
-01
2019
-07
Perc
enta
ge
US Value US Momentum Developed Value Developed Momentum Canadian Value Canadian Momentum Canadian Bonds
Source: Alpha Architect Value and Momentum Indices for US, CAD and Developed Markets
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