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B R I A N V A D M A T H I E S E N ,b v m @ p l a n . a a u . d k

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o n c o n f e r e n c e : T e c h n o l o g y C h a l l e n g e s a n d R e g i o n a l A p p r o a c h e s f o r I n t e g r a t i n g R e n e w a b l e s

a n d E n e r g y S e c u r i t y , T H O N H o t e l B R U S S E L S , M A Y / 2 7 2 0 1 5

S U S T A I N A B L E E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G R E S E A R C H G R O U P , A A L B O R G U N I V E R S I T Y

SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY INTEGRATION –

- HOW CAN ELECTRICITY GRIDS AND DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS BE OPTIMISED IN AN INTEGRATED WAY?

1. Key enabling technologies towards 2030?

2. Potential disruptive technology developments looking towards 2030?

3. Main barriers to further integration of variable renewable electricity in a 2020 and 2030 perspective?

2

KEY CHALLENCES

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RECOMMENDATIONS I

• Make CHP (and PP) unit regulation depend on wind power input (10-20% wind without loss of efficiency)

• Add large scale heat pumps (and heat storage capacity) to the CHP units (approx. 40 per cent Wind Power)

• Use electricity for transport as much as possible

• Other kinds of flexible demands are of less importance

Surplus Electricity ProductionIncluding grid-stbilisation

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 20 40 60 80 100Wind power per cent

Per

cen

t

Ref

DKVreg

+HPreg

Trans

RECOMMENDATIONS II

• Not much gained -(integration of wind nor profit) from investing in electricity storage options including batteries

• However the inclusion of CHP, heat pumps and transportation units in securing grid stabil ity is essential.

System operational savings (excess electricity price of 13 EUR/MWh) (All technologies have annual costs of 14 Million EUR/year)

0

10

20

30

40

50

HP1EB1

HP2HP3

HP4HP5

HP6EB2

ELC1

ELC2

ELC3

ELC4

EB3H2-

1

CAES1ELC

5H2-

2

CAES2EB4

mill

ion

EU

R/y

ear

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RECOMMENDATIONS III

• The kind of flexibil ity one need from a technical point of view (CHP, HP and transport) is the same kind of flexibil ity which is needed to raise profits of exchange in international electricity or gas markets.

• Interconnections will not help the integration of more wind but rather help share capacity and/or force a market opening through.

Marginal trade income

150

200

250

300

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Wind Input (TWh)

Mio

lio

n D

KK

Reference

350 MW HP

CHPregB

CHPregBnet

Costs

RECOMMENDATIONS IV

• In the medium long term perspective RES electricity has to be transformed into RES gases and l iquid fuels (in combination with biomass) to supplement the l imited biomass resource. Such conversion opens for the use of gas storage and l iquid fuel storage.

• Hydrogen should not be used directly and not be used in micro-CHP.

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COMBINED HEAT & POWER (CHP) - REGULATION

High Wind Scenario Low Wind Scenario

Electricity 

Demand

Hot Water 

Demand

Wind Power

CHP Plant

Thermal Storage

Electricity 

Demand

Hot Water 

Demand

Wind Power

CHP Plant

Thermal Storage

TRANSITION FROM A CENTRALISED ENERGY SYSTEM TO A PARTLY DE-CENTRALISED SYSTEM BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY

8

S T A T U S 2 0 1 4 :• > 3 9 % W I N D P O W E R

• M O R E T H A N 1 0 0 . 0 0 0 W I N DT U R B I N E O W N E R S

• H I G H S H A R E O F O F F S H O R E

• 3 0 % D I S T R I B U T E DO P E R A T I O N A N D A P P . 5 0 % F R O M C H P

• M O R E T H A N 6 0 % H A S D I S T R I C T H E A T I N G

• L A R G E S H A R E O F H E A T S A V I N G S

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RENEWABLE ENERGY STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE

F L E X I B L E T E C H N O L O G I E S

I N T E G R A T E D E N E R G Y

S Y S T E M S

Savings in Energy 

Denmand

Efficiencyimprovements

in energyproduction

Renewableenergy

sources (RES)

STUDY FOR THE EU27

by

Aalborg University David Connolly

Brian Vad Mathiesen

Poul Alberg Østergaard

Bernd Möller

Steffen Nielsen

Henrik Lund

Halmstad UniversityUrban Persson

Daniel Nilsson

Sven Werner

Ecofys Germany GmbHJan Grözinger

Thosmas Boersmans

Michelle Bosquet

PlanEnergiDaniel Trier

STUDY FOR THE EU27

- D I S S E M I N A T I O N O F R E S E A R C H

- E U R E S E A R C H S T R A T E G Y

I N F L U E N C E A N D P R O J E C T S

- K N O W L E D G E A N D T E C H N O L O G Y

T R A N S F E R

HEAT ROADMAP CHINA – N E W H E AT S T R AT E G Y TO R E D U C E E N E R G Y C O N S U M P T I ON TO WAR D S 2 0 3 0

Tsinghua University Weiming XiongYu Wang Xiliang Zhang 

Aalborg UniversityBrian Vad MathiesenHenrik LundDavid Connolly

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11

Flexible consumption

Electricity storage

CAES systems

Regulation of CHP plants

Electric heating

Heat pumps

Electric cars

Stopping of wind turbines

Production of hydrogen

Transmission abroad

V2G

OPTIONS FOR SYSTEM INTEGRATION

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 10 20 30 40 50

Exc

ess

pro

du

ctio

n (T

Wh

)

Wind power production (TWh)

Open energy system

Ref. CHP reg.

Ref. no CHP reg.

235

240

245

250

255

260

265

270

275

280

285

0 10 20 30 40 50

PE

S e

xcl.

win

d (T

Wh

)

Wind power production (TWh)

Closed energy system

Ref. CHP reg.

Ref. no CHP reg.

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Flexible consumption

Electricity storage

CAES systems

Regulation of CHP plants

Electric heating

Heat pumps

Electric cars

Stopping of wind turbines

Production of hydrogen

Transmission abroad

V2G

OPTIONS FOR SYSTEM INTEGRATION

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 10 20 30 40 50

Exc

ess

pro

du

ctio

n (T

Wh

)

Wind power production (TWh)

Open energy system

Ref. CHP reg.

Ref. no CHP reg.

235

240

245

250

255

260

265

270

275

280

285

0 10 20 30 40 50

PE

S e

xcl.

win

d (T

Wh

)

Wind power production (TWh)

Closed energy system

Ref. CHP reg.

Ref. no CHP reg.

P U M P H Y D R O S T O R A G E1 7 5 € / K W H

N A T U R A L G A S U N D E R G R O U N D S T O R A G E

0 . 0 5 € / K W H

O I L T A N K0 . 0 2 € / K W H

T H E R M A L S T O R A G E1 - 4 € / K W H

ENERGY STORAGE

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SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS- THE KEY TO COST-EFFICIENT 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY

• A so le focus on renewab le e lect r ic i ty (smar t gr id ) produc t ion leads to e lec t r i c i t y s to rage and f l ex ib le demand so lu t i ons !

• Look ing a t renewab le e lec t r i c i t y as a pa r t smar t energy sys tems inc lud ing heat ing , indust ry, gas and t ranspor ta t ion opens fo r cheaper and be t te r so lu t i ons…

P O W E R - T O - H E A TP O W E R - T O - G A S

P O W E R - T O - T R A N S P O R T

L E A D S T O :

- E L E C T R I C I YS T O R A G E , - F L E X I B L E D E M A N D S

SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS - ARE CRUCIAL IN 100% RENEWABLEENERGY SYSTEMS

A cross‐sectoral and coherent energy system solution

– Smart Electricity Grids to connect flexible electricity demands such as heat pumps and electric vehicles to the intermittent renewable resources such as wind and solar power.

– Smart Thermal Grids (District Heating and Cooling) to connect the electricity and heating sectors. This enables thermal storage to be utilised for creating additional flexibility and heat losses in the energy system to be recycled.

– Smart Gas Grids to connect the electricity, heating, and transport sectors. This enables gas storage to be utilised for creating additional flexibility. If the gas is refined to a liquid fuel, then liquid fuel storages can also be utilised.

S O L U T I O N

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SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS - ARE CRUCIAL IN 100% RENEWABLEENERGY SYSTEMS

A cross‐sectoral and coherent energy system solution

– Smart Electricity Grids to connect flexible electricity demands such as heat pumps and electric vehicles to the intermittent renewable resources such as wind and solar power.

– Smart Thermal Grids (District Heating and Cooling) to connect the electricity and heating sectors. This enables thermal storage to be utilised for creating additional flexibility and heat losses in the energy system to be recycled.

– Smart Gas Grids to connect the electricity, heating, and transport sectors. This enables gas storage to be utilised for creating additional flexibility. If the gas is refined to a liquid fuel, then liquid fuel storages can also be utilised.

S O L U T I O N

S M A R T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M I S D E F I N E D A S A N A P P R O A C H I N W H I C H S M A R T E L E C T R I C I T Y , T H E R M A L A N D G A S G R I D S A R E C O M B I N E D A N D C O O R D I N A T E D T O I D E N T I F Y S Y N E R G I E S B E T W E E N T H E M I N O R D E R T O A C H I E V E A N O P T I M A L S O L U T I O N F O R E A C H I N D I V I D U A L

S E C T O R A S W E L L A S F O R T H E O V E R A L L E N E R G Y S Y S T E M .

Electricity Consumption Capacity

• Twice as high capacity as the reference in 2050

• Incr. share of flexible consumption capacity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2010 2020 2030 2050 2010 2020 2030 2050

Electricity Consumption Cap

acity [M

W]

Reference                                           CEESA Recommendable

Electric heating

Electrolyzers

Electric vehicles

Flexible demand

Heat pump

Electricity demand

18

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Electricity Consumption

• Reduction in traditional electricity demand

• Increase of new flexible demands

• Ensures flexibility for wind integration

 ‐

 10

 20

 30

 40

 50

 60

 70

 80

 90

2010 2020 2030 2050 2010 2020 2030 2050

Electricity consumption [TW

h]

Reference                                           CEESA Recommendable

Export

Electric heating

Electrolyzers

Electric vehicles

Flexible demand

Heat pump

Electricity demand

19

100 % RENEWABLE ENERGY SCENARIOS IN THE CEESA PROJECT 2011

T R A N S P O R T : E L E C T R I C I T Y A S M U C H A S P O S S I B L E , B U T G A S A N D L I Q U I D F U E L S A R E N E E D E D T O M A K E A T R A N S I T I O N .

B I O M A S S :. . I S A L I M I T E D R E S O U R C E … A N D C A N N O T C O V E R T H E T R A N S P O R T S E C T O R . …

C O N S E Q U E N C E …… E L E C T R I C I T Y F R O M W I N D A N D O T H E R R E S H O U L D B E C O N V E R T E D I N T O R E - G A S S E S A N D L I Q U I D F U E L S I N T H E L O N G R U N . .

W E C A N R E A C H 1 0 0 % R E N E W A B L E

C O S T A N D F U E L

E F F I C I E N T L Y I N 2 0 5 0

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21

ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE ENERGY UNION…..

• CO2‐kvota markets only solve a very small part of the problem and only addresses certain sectors

• New cables does not provide more renewable energy! 

• The existing actors may not be able to lift the task (goes against existing business model)

• Energy savings good for society cost but hard to implement

• Existing marginal electricity price markets cannot survive as they are

• Feed‐in‐tariff model under pressure from ignorant civil servants and industry

• Public support and ownership needs a big boost

• S M AR T E N E R G Y D E N M AR K I N 2 0 5 0 ?

• S M AR T E N E R G Y E U R O P E I N 2 0 6 0 ?

W W W . E N E R G Y P L A N . E U

W W W . H E A T R O A D M A P . E U

W W W . S M A R T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S . E U

W W W . 4 D H . D K

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ekstra

23

Electricity Production Capacity

• Increase of RE capacity

• Constant PP/CHP capacity

• Need for high flexibility in PP/CHP production

 ‐

 5.000

 10.000

 15.000

 20.000

 25.000

 30.000

2010 2020 2030 2050 2010 2020 2030 2050

Electricity production cap

acity [M

W]

Reference                                           CEESA Recommendable

PV+Wave

Wind

Condensing PP

CHP, Central

CHP, Decentral

Waste CHP

24

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Electricity Production

• Decreased production from PP/CHP

• Increase of total production

• 80% from wind, PV and wave power

 ‐

 10

 20

 30

 40

 50

 60

 70

 80

 90

2010 2020 2030 2050 2010 2020 2030 2050

Electricity production [TW

h]

Reference                                           CEESA Recommendable

PV+Wave

Wind

Condensing PP

CHP, Central

CHP, Decentral

Waste CHP

25