Impacts of climate change on Pacific atolls: Vulnerability and adaptive capacityA case study from Ontong Java atoll, Solomon Islands

Thomas Birk, M.Sc – Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen

Small islands and climate change

IPCC 4AR - WG2, Chapt. 16: ”Small islands have characteristics which make them especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea-level rise, and extreme events (very high confidence)””Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of islandcommunities (very high confidence)There is strong evidence that under most climate change scenarios, water resources in small islands are likely to be seriously compromised (very high confidence)””Climate change is likely to heavily impact coral reefs, fisheries and other marine-based resources (high confidence)

Island diversity

Common characteristicsPhysical size – small, but what is small?Proneness to natural disasters and climate extremes (tsunami, vulcanic eruptions, earthquake, cyclones)Open economiesLow adaptive capacities

DiversityRegional / local climatic differencesTopographic featuresOther characteristics: natural resources, size and shape, culture, population density, geographical location / isolation etc.

Fielwork expedition - CLIP

Sustainable Resource Use or Imminent Collapse? Climate, livelihoods and production in the Southwest Pacific (CLIP)

CLIP is a joint project of the LUCC and EST research groups at The Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen, the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), and the University of the South Pacific (USP), Fiji and Solomon Islands. The project is endorsed by the Danish Expedition Foundation, Galathea 3. and the Global Land Project.

Project coordination: Ole Mertz and Kjeld Rasmussen, The Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen

Geographical location: SW Pacific

Ontong Java

Low lying atoll ~ 2 m.120 small islets surrounding a shallow lagoonReef flat: shallow underground aquifers, calcium rich, nutrient deficient soilsCoral reef: coastal protection, biodiversity

2 communities - PolynesianLuaniua: 1300 peoplePelau: 700 people

Isolation> 300 km. to main islandsEthnic minority (5%)

Ontong Java

Luaniua island

Objectives

To understandRecent climate variability and change: regional observation and local perceptionExisting coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies

To assessThe potential / probable impact of CCThe vulnerability of local communityAdaptive capacity and potential adaptation strategies

Methodology

LiteratureIsland case studies (e.g. Bayliss-Smith 1988)Regional, national statisticsIPCC 4AR

Field workQuestionnaire: livelihood, production, CC impacts and coping measuresInterviews: CC specific – climate variability, CC, coping strategies etc.Topography – simple differential levelling method

Impact and response – climate events

Water supply

Coastal protection?

Topography

Regional CC

Local perceptions/observations

Adaptation to CC

+Coping with CC / climate variability are well established parts of the living conditions on Ontong JavaGrowing support / attention for small scale island communityadaptation projectsNational focus on adaptation priorities and funding opportunities(NAPA’s)

÷Critical long term effects on coral atolls of sea-level rise (≥ 30 cm) and ocean acidificationEconomic efficiency of adaptation investments, national prioritiesof supporting Polynesian outlier communitiesExacerbated impacts of CC due to population increase, economic instability, environmental resource depletion

Conclusions

Impacts and vulnerabilities differ greatly between islandsSea level rise will become a great problem in Ontong JavaCoral reef deterioration is likely to become a serious problem, bothbecause of their role as coastal protection, as ecosystems and fishhabitats and as basis for tourism developmentDroughts are presently important, and may become worse associatedwith more intense El Niño eventsIsland-by-island impact and vulnerability assessment is required

People on the islands are experience at coping with extreme events

A few short- to medium-term adaptation options can be pointed out and could be pursued – Yet, there are obvious need for capacitybuilding: knowledge, finance, technology etc.

In light of sea-level rise > 30 cm. long-term adaptation will be difficult

Human factor

Luanua 2007 Luanua 1963