small arms survey 2008: risk and resilience

small arms survey 2008: risk and resilience

Small Arms Proliferation and the Small Arms Proliferation and the Prospects for Peace and Prospects for Peace and Development in SudanDevelopment in Sudan

a lecture for the “Global Trends and Diversity” classa lecture for the “Global Trends and Diversity” class

Organized by the Graduate Institute for International and Development Organized by the Graduate Institute for International and Development StudiesStudies

Geneva, 29 September 2009Geneva, 29 September 2009

Eric G Berman, Small Arms Survey


Small Arms Survey: aims Small Arms Survey: aims and workand work


An independent research institute based An independent research institute based in Geneva with a mandate to investigate in Geneva with a mandate to investigate all aspects of small arms and armed all aspects of small arms and armed violence issuesviolence issues

Provide reliable and impartial policy-Provide reliable and impartial policy-relevant analysis relevant analysis

Work closely with a global network of Work closely with a global network of partnerspartners

Support principally comes from Support principally comes from governments:governments:□ □ AustraliaAustralia □ Belgium□ Belgium □ Canada□ Canada□ □ DenmarkDenmark □ Finland□ Finland □ Germany□ Germany□ □ NetherlandsNetherlands □ Norway□ Norway □ Spain□ Spain□ □ SwedenSweden □ Switzerland □ Switzerland □ United Kingdom□ United Kingdom

UN Headquarters, 14 July 2008

small arms survey 2008: risk and resilienceGeneva, 29 September 2009Geneva, 29 September 2009

The Human Security The Human Security BaselineBaseline Assessment (HSBA): five Assessment (HSBA): five themesthemes

■■ International, regional, domestic International, regional, domestic transferstransfers

■■ Domestic stockpiles and Domestic stockpiles and inventoriesinventories

■■ Command and control of armed Command and control of armed groupsgroups

■■ Local security arrangements and Local security arrangements and demanddemand

■■ Mortality, morbidity and Mortality, morbidity and victimizationvictimization

Today’s TalkToday’s Talk

■■ Small Arms and Armed Violence: an OverviewSmall Arms and Armed Violence: an Overview□ □ what are small arms and light weapons?what are small arms and light weapons?□ □ a global snapshot of producers, transfers, and holdingsa global snapshot of producers, transfers, and holdings□ □ direct effects: death and injurydirect effects: death and injury□ □ indirect effects and costsindirect effects and costs□ □ tackling the problem: the UN Programme of Action (PoA)tackling the problem: the UN Programme of Action (PoA)

■ ■ Proliferation in Sudan and the ProspectsProliferation in Sudan and the Prospects for Peace and Developmentfor Peace and Development

□ □ who has small arms and light weapons in Sudan?who has small arms and light weapons in Sudan?□ □ what do they possess?what do they possess?□□ how did they acquire them?how did they acquire them?□ □ what can be done about it?what can be done about it?


What are small arms and What are small arms and light weapons?light weapons?

Small arms: handguns, rifles and carbines, sub-machine guns, assault rifles, light machine guns

Geneva, 29 September 2009

Light weapons: heavy machine guns, grenade and rocket launchers, recoilless rifles/guns, anti-tank guided weapons, man-portable air-defence systems, anti-material rifles

Source: UN Panel of Governmental Experts, 1997 (A/52/298)

Craft productionCraft production

■ Explosively formed Explosively formed projectilesprojectiles

■ MortarsMortars

■ GrenadeGrenade launchers launchers

■ RocketsRockets

■ HandgunsHandguns


small arms survey 2008: risk and resilienceGeneva, 29 September 2009

Top exporters and Top exporters and importersimporters■■ Top exporters of small arms:Top exporters of small arms:

■ ■ United StatesUnited States ■ Austria ■ Austria ■ ■ BelgiumBelgium■ ■ BrazilBrazil ■ Germany■ Germany ■ Italy■ Italy

■ ■ ChinaChina ■ Russian Federation■ Russian Federation

■ ■ Top importers of small arms:Top importers of small arms:

■ ■ United StatesUnited States ■ Australia■ Australia ■ ■ CanadaCanada■ ■ CyprusCyprus ■ Egypt ■ Egypt ■ ■ FranceFrance■ ■ GermanyGermany ■ Japan ■ Japan ■ ■ Nether-Nether-■ ■ Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia ■ South Korea ■ South Korea landslands

Military Military surplusessurpluses 200 million 200 million

military small military small armsarms

76 million are 76 million are surplussurplus

Countries as Countries as likely to likely to export export unwanted unwanted equipment as equipment as to destroy itto destroy it



The 2009 Transparency The 2009 Transparency BarometerBarometer


Most transparentMost transparent

■ ■ SwitzerlandSwitzerland

■ ■ United KingdomUnited Kingdom

■ ■ GermanyGermany ■ ■ Norway Norway

■ ■ Netherlands,Netherlands, Serbia, Serbia,

United States United States

Least transparentLeast transparent

■ ■ Iran, Iran, North KoreaNorth Korea

■ ■ South AfricaSouth Africa■ ■ Russian Russian FederationFederation

■ ■ IsraelIsrael

Global distribution: Global distribution: a largely civilian arsenala largely civilian arsenal

At least 875 million weapons held worldwide

Who has the guns:

More than two-thirds are in civilian hands

About one-quarter with the armed forces

Relatively very few with the police

…and less than one per cent with armed groups


Small arms Small arms proliferation:proliferation: guided light guided light weaponsweapons ■■ More than 40 armed groups More than 40 armed groups

reportedreported to possess, or have possessed, man-to possess, or have possessed, man- portable air-defense systems portable air-defense systems (MANPADS)(MANPADS) ■ ■ More than a dozen armed groupsMore than a dozen armed groups reported to possess, or have reported to possess, or have possessed,possessed, anti-tank guided weapons (ATGWs)anti-tank guided weapons (ATGWs) ■ ■ Groups active over the past decade Groups active over the past decade inin 30+ territories and countries30+ territories and countries


A trafficker’s A trafficker’s perspectiveperspective


Blank end-Blank end-user user certificates certificates can be can be purchasedpurchased

Small arms Small arms ammunition is ammunition is plentiful and plentiful and cheapcheap

Transport can Transport can be arrangedbe arranged

Potential Potential profits are profits are attractive, attractive, while risks while risks remain slightremain slight

Transfer diversionTransfer diversion


Small arms proliferationSmall arms proliferation

■ ■ state support to pro-state support to pro-government militiasgovernment militias

■■ recirculation of recirculation of

weaponsweapons holdingsholdings

■■ poorly plannedpoorly planned disarmament and armsdisarmament and arms recovery initiativesrecovery initiatives

■■ seizure and loss of seizure and loss of state stockpilesstate stockpiles

■■ ill-discipline among ill-discipline among state security forcesstate security forces


Direct and Indirect EffectsDirect and Indirect Effects


Human Social, economic, and other costs

Direct Death and injury

Hospital careLost productivity/income Life insurance pay-outImpaired tax collection Capital flight Damage to private propertyDamage to infrastructureDamage to agriculture

Indirect Death and sickness from treatable diseaseDeath and sickness from malnutritionDeath and injury from risk-taking

Lost quality of lifeCare providing (family)Out-patient careMigration/emigration Increased policing IncarcerationHigher insurance ratesHigher commodity pricesLegal servicesReduced GDPLong term productivity/income lossesRe-building property and infrastructureRe-planting/re-stocking agriculture

Armed violence: Armed violence: main findings (global)main findings (global)

■■ Armed violence claimsArmed violence claims at least 740,000 livesat least 740,000 lives per yearper year

■■ The vast majority – atThe vast majority – at least 490,000 – of theseleast 490,000 – of these deaths occur indeaths occur in non-conflict settingsnon-conflict settings

■■ The annual economicThe annual economic cost of armed violencecost of armed violence outside of war zones isoutside of war zones is at least USD 95 billionat least USD 95 billion


Explosions at arms depots Explosions at arms depots (in Africa)(in Africa)


5Malhuxine23 June 2007Mozambique

3Mbandaka17 June 2007DRC

0Khartoum08 April 2007Sudan

104+Malhuxine22 March 2007Mozambique

0MalhuxineJanuary 2007Mozambique

2Juba19 May 2006Sudan

0Nairobi28 January 2006Kenya

6Walikale, Nord-Kivu25 November 2005DRC

2Abidjan 4 March 2005 Côte d’Ivoire

80Juba23 February 2005Sudan

4Kaduna 23 February 2005 Nigeria

6Menongue 16 July 2003Angola

?Beira24 October 2002Mozambique

1,500+Lagos27 January 2002Nigeria

6Tongo Field 5 January 2002Sierra Leone

10 Conakry 3 March 2001Guinea

101Kinshasa14 April 2000DRC

0Khartoum 29 September 1998Sudan

Loss of LifeLocationDateCountry

Source: Based on Wilkinson, 2006, pp. 248-53; and Wilkinson, forthcoming.

The UN Small Arms The UN Small Arms ProgrammeProgramme of Action (PoA)of Action (PoA)

■ Political agreement concludedPolitical agreement concluded July 2001 (A/CONF.192/15)July 2001 (A/CONF.192/15)

■ Initiative to counter …“illicit”Initiative to counter …“illicit” trafficking of small arms … trafficking of small arms … “ “in all its aspects”in all its aspects”

■ Three levels of action:Three levels of action: (1) national; (2) (sub-)regional;(1) national; (2) (sub-)regional; (3) global(3) global

■ Frequent reportingFrequent reporting


The UN and the Small ArmsThe UN and the Small Arms Programme of Action (PoA)Programme of Action (PoA)

■ ■ Groups of Governmental Experts (GGEs):Groups of Governmental Experts (GGEs): (e.g. Marking and Tracing; Brokering; Surplus (e.g. Marking and Tracing; Brokering; Surplus Ammunition)Ammunition)

■ ■ Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) on Arms Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) on Arms Trade TreatyTrade Treaty

■■ Biennial Meetings of States (BMSes): (2003; Biennial Meetings of States (BMSes): (2003; 2005; 2008; 2010)2005; 2008; 2010)

■■ Informal Meeting on Transfer Control Informal Meeting on Transfer Control Principles (2007)Principles (2007)

■■ Review Conferences (2006 and 2012)Review Conferences (2006 and 2012)


Third Biennial Meeting of Third Biennial Meeting of StatesStates

Three Themes:Three Themes:

International cooperation, International cooperation, assistance & national capacity-assistance & national capacity-buildingbuilding

Illicit brokeringIllicit brokering

Stockpile management & surplus Stockpile management & surplus disposal disposal


Third Biennial Meeting of Third Biennial Meeting of StatesStates

■ Issues for future consideration include: □ producers □ recipients

□ supply □ demand

□ ammunition □ civilian possession

(24 proposals in all)

■ Outcome Document (Consensus-2)


Implementation of the PoA:Implementation of the PoA: a snapshot from Central and a snapshot from Central and South AsiaSouth Asia


Sudan: an overviewSudan: an overview

■ ■ Largest country in Africa Largest country in Africa (2.5m km (2.5m km22))

■ ■ Large, heterogeneous Large, heterogeneous populationpopulation

□ □ 35+ million people35+ million people □ □ 500+ ethnicities/sub-500+ ethnicities/sub-

groupsgroups □ □ 100+ languages100+ languages □ □ Arab/non-Arab divideArab/non-Arab divide

■■ Unstable neighbourhood Unstable neighbourhood (9 countries (9 countries sharing borders)sharing borders)


Sudan’s Ethnic Sudan’s Ethnic (Sub-)Groups(Sub-)Groups

(Darfur Map courtesy Human Rights Watch)(Darfur Map courtesy Human Rights Watch)


Peace ProcessesPeace Processes

■■ Comprehensive Peace AgreementComprehensive Peace Agreement (January 2005)(January 2005)

■■ Darfur Peace Agreement (May 2006)Darfur Peace Agreement (May 2006)

■■ Eastern Sudan Peace AgreementEastern Sudan Peace Agreement (October 2006)(October 2006)

■■ All three are fragile or brokenAll three are fragile or broken


Arms Restrictions andArms Restrictions andInvestigative InitiativesInvestigative Initiatives

Peace AgreementsPeace Agreements■ ■ The CPA (January 2005)The CPA (January 2005)■ ■ The DPA (May 2006)The DPA (May 2006)■ ■ The ESPA (October 2006)The ESPA (October 2006)

United NationsUnited Nations■ ■ Resolution 1556 (July 2004)Resolution 1556 (July 2004)■ ■ Resolution 1591 (March 2005)Resolution 1591 (March 2005)

European UnionEuropean Union■■ Council Decision 94/165/CFSP (1994)Council Decision 94/165/CFSP (1994)■■ Council Common Position 2004/31/CFSP (2004)Council Common Position 2004/31/CFSP (2004)


Sudanese Armed Forces Sudanese Armed Forces and Armed Groups Based and Armed Groups Based in Sudanin SudanGovernment of National Unity (GNU) Government of National Unity (GNU) ForcesForces

▪ ▪ The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF): Army, Navy, Air ForceThe Sudan Armed Forces (SAF): Army, Navy, Air Force ▪ ▪ Various other state services: Police, Prison, Wildlife, Various other state services: Police, Prison, Wildlife,

Intelligence, CustomsIntelligence, Customs ▪ ▪ The Popular Defense Forces (PDF) The Popular Defense Forces (PDF)

Government of South Sudan (GoSS) Government of South Sudan (GoSS) ForcesForces

▪ ▪ Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA)Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) ▪ ▪ Various other state services: Police, Prison, Wildlife, Various other state services: Police, Prison, Wildlife,

Intelligence, CustomsIntelligence, Customs

Other Armed GroupsOther Armed Groups ▪ ▪ Armed groups based in the west (e.g. JEM, SLA, Armed groups based in the west (e.g. JEM, SLA,

‘Janjaweed’)‘Janjaweed’) ▪ ▪ Armed groups based in the east (e.g. Free Lions, Beja Armed groups based in the east (e.g. Free Lions, Beja

Congress)Congress) ▪ ▪ Armed groups based in the south (e.g. ‘White Army’, Armed groups based in the south (e.g. ‘White Army’,

rump-SSDF,rump-SSDF, pastoralist pastoralist

groups)groups)


Non-Sudanese Armed Non-Sudanese Armed Forces and Armed Groups Forces and Armed Groups Based in SudanBased in SudanState Forces/Forces Comprised of State State Forces/Forces Comprised of State ForcesForces

▪ ▪ The African Union/United Nations Hybrid Operation in The African Union/United Nations Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) Darfur (UNAMID)

▪ ▪ The United Nations Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS)The United Nations Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS)

▪ ▪ The Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF)The Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF)

Non-State GroupsNon-State Groups ▪ ▪ Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA)Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA)

▪ ▪ Chadian RebelsChadian Rebels

▪ ▪ AmbororoAmbororoGeneva, 29 September 2009Geneva, 29 September 2009

Source: HSBA IB6 April

2007

Arms Holdings: an Arms Holdings: an overviewoverview


Types of Small Arms and Types of Small Arms and Light Weapons in Light Weapons in Circulation (highlights)Circulation (highlights)

Small ArmsSmall Arms ▪ ▪ Assault rifles (including both 7.62 x 39/7.62 x 51 mm Assault rifles (including both 7.62 x 39/7.62 x 51 mm

varieties)varieties) ▪ ▪ Light and medium machine gunsLight and medium machine guns

Light WeaponsLight Weapons ▪ ▪ Heavy machine gunsHeavy machine guns ▪ ▪ Recoilless riflesRecoilless rifles ▪ ▪ MortarsMortars ▪ ▪ Rocket-propelled grenade launchersRocket-propelled grenade launchers ▪ ▪ Man-portable Air-Defence Systems (MANPADS)Man-portable Air-Defence Systems (MANPADS)

Light Vehicle-Based Artillery SystemsLight Vehicle-Based Artillery Systems ▪ ▪ Multiple-launch rocket systemsMultiple-launch rocket systems


Arms Proliferation: the Arms Proliferation: the causescauses

PlannedPlanned ▪ ▪ Local productionLocal production ▪ ▪ State-to-state transfersState-to-state transfers ▪ ▪ State-to-non-state transfers (“Proxy State-to-non-state transfers (“Proxy

Wars”)Wars”) ▪▪ Disarmament/Arms recovery Disarmament/Arms recovery

initiativesinitiatives ▪ ▪ ““Ant trade”Ant trade”

UnplannedUnplanned ▪ ▪ CorruptionCorruption ▪ ▪ Seizure (state security forces, Seizure (state security forces,

pastoralist and pastoralist and armed groups, and peacekeeping armed groups, and peacekeeping

forces)forces) ▪ ▪ Disarmament/Arms recovery Disarmament/Arms recovery

initiativesinitiatives


Arms Proliferation:Arms Proliferation:local production (mostly local production (mostly unverified)unverified)

The Military Industrial The Military Industrial Corporation (MIC)Corporation (MIC)

▪ ▪ Alshagara Industrial Complex (est. 1959)Alshagara Industrial Complex (est. 1959) ▪ ▪ Yarmouk Industrial Complex (est. 1994)Yarmouk Industrial Complex (est. 1994) ▪ ▪ Alzargaa Engineering Complex (est. 1999)Alzargaa Engineering Complex (est. 1999) ▪ ▪ Elshaheed Ibrahim Shamseldeen Complex Elshaheed Ibrahim Shamseldeen Complex

(est. 2002)(est. 2002) ▪▪ Safaat Aviation Complex (est. 2005)Safaat Aviation Complex (est. 2005)

source: MICsource: MIC

Other Facilities MentionedOther Facilities Mentioned ▪ ▪ GIAD Industrial ComplexGIAD Industrial Complex ▪ ▪ Sudan Technical CenterSudan Technical Center

Foreign Assistance/MachineryForeign Assistance/Machinery ▪ ▪ Pakistan (technical know-how)Pakistan (technical know-how) (direct)(direct) ▪ ▪ Germany and Russia (machine tools)Germany and Russia (machine tools)

(indirect)(indirect)


Arms Proliferation:Arms Proliferation:state-to-state transfers (to state-to-state transfers (to Khartoum)Khartoum)

Based on customs data (2001-2006) Based on customs data (2001-2006) according to Khartoumaccording to Khartoum**

▪ ▪ China (mostly military firearms)China (mostly military firearms) USD 35.0 million*USD 35.0 million* ▪ ▪ Iran (mostly military firearms)Iran (mostly military firearms) USD 17.2 USD 17.2

millionmillion ▪ ▪ Egypt (mostly pistols and revolvers [p&r])Egypt (mostly pistols and revolvers [p&r]) USD 0.8 USD 0.8

millionmillion ▪ ▪ United Arab Emirates (mostly shotguns)United Arab Emirates (mostly shotguns) USD 0.3 millionUSD 0.3 million ▪ ▪ Italy (mostly shotgun cartridges)Italy (mostly shotgun cartridges) USD 0.3 millionUSD 0.3 million ▪▪ Saudi Arabia (mostly pistols and revolvers)Saudi Arabia (mostly pistols and revolvers) USD 0.2 USD 0.2

millionmillion ▪ ▪ UK (mostly p&r parts/accessories [p/a])UK (mostly p&r parts/accessories [p/a]) USD 0.2 millionUSD 0.2 million ▪ ▪ Russian Federation (mostly military firearms)Russian Federation (mostly military firearms) USD 0.2 USD 0.2

millionmillion ▪ ▪ Germany (mostly shotgun and rifle p/a)Germany (mostly shotgun and rifle p/a) USD 0.2 millionUSD 0.2 million ▪ ▪ Turkey (mostly shotguns)Turkey (mostly shotguns) USD 0.1 millionUSD 0.1 million ▪ ▪ Kuwait (mostly p&r parts/accessories)Kuwait (mostly p&r parts/accessories) USD 0.1 USD 0.1

millionmillion

(Note: USD, 100,000 (Note: USD, 100,000 minimum) minimum)


Arms Proliferation:Arms Proliferation:state-to-non-state transfers state-to-non-state transfers (recipients)(recipients)

Recorded and SuspectedRecorded and Suspected

▪ ▪ Chad (Darfur rebel groups)Chad (Darfur rebel groups) ▪ ▪ Eritrea (Darfur rebel groups)Eritrea (Darfur rebel groups) ▪ ▪ Ethiopia (SPLA)Ethiopia (SPLA) ▪ ▪ Libya (Darfur rebel groups)Libya (Darfur rebel groups) ▪ ▪ Sudan (“Janjaweed”, SSDF, Sudan (“Janjaweed”, SSDF,

LRA)LRA) ▪ ▪ Uganda (SPLA)Uganda (SPLA) ▪ ▪ Ukraine/Kenya (SPLA)Ukraine/Kenya (SPLA)


Arms Proliferation: non-Arms Proliferation: non-state-to-state-to-non-state transfers non-state transfers (recipients)(recipients)Recorded and Suspected …Recorded and Suspected …

… … by Design …by Design …

▪ ▪ SPLA (SLA, Eastern Front)SPLA (SLA, Eastern Front) ▪ ▪ Chadian civilians (SLA)Chadian civilians (SLA)

… … and Involuntarilyand Involuntarily

▪ ▪ SLA (JEM)SLA (JEM) ▪ ▪ JEM (SLA)JEM (SLA) ▪ ▪ FUC (SLA – via N’Djamena)FUC (SLA – via N’Djamena) ▪ ▪ Chadian civilians (SLA)Chadian civilians (SLA)


Arms Proliferation:Arms Proliferation:corruption and seizurecorruption and seizure

▪ ▪ Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) ▪ ▪ GoS-supported armed groupsGoS-supported armed groups ▪ ▪ Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA)Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) ▪ ▪ UPDFUPDF ▪ ▪ AU PeacekeepersAU Peacekeepers ▪▪ UN PeacekeepersUN Peacekeepers ▪ ▪ Pastoralist groupsPastoralist groups ▪ ▪ CiviliansCivilians


Seizure and Loss of State Seizure and Loss of State Stockpiles:Stockpiles:the results in picturesthe results in pictures

Photos CourtesyMine Advisory Group


Arms Proliferation: Arms Proliferation: disarmamentdisarmamentand arms recovery and arms recovery initiativesinitiativesSPLA disarmament effort in SPLA disarmament effort in

Jonglei (2005-06)Jonglei (2005-06) ▪ ▪ 3,000+ weapons collected by SPLA3,000+ weapons collected by SPLA (1,600 people killed)(1,600 people killed) ▪ ▪ 2,000+ weapons collected with UN 2,000+ weapons collected with UN

supportsupport (0 people killed)(0 people killed)

SPLA disarmament initiative SPLA disarmament initiative in 2008in 2008

▪ ▪ perhaps 20,000+ weapons collected perhaps 20,000+ weapons collected (sporadic reports of violence, some (sporadic reports of violence, some

fatalities)fatalities)

No weapons reportedly No weapons reportedly destroyeddestroyed

Geneva, 29 September 2009Geneva, 29 September 2009Geneva, 29 September 2009Geneva, 29 September 2009

What can be done?What can be done?

■ ■ Strengthen the Expert Panel on Sudan (res. Strengthen the Expert Panel on Sudan (res. 1591)1591)

■ ■ Expand the mandate and increase resources of Expand the mandate and increase resources of UN missionsUN missions

■■ Reform and professionalize the SPLAReform and professionalize the SPLA

■■ Provide guidance and oversight for all civilian Provide guidance and oversight for all civilian arms recoveryarms recovery initiativesinitiatives

■■ Support stockpile management, surplus Support stockpile management, surplus destruction and securitydestruction and security sector reform in neighboring countriessector reform in neighboring countries


QuestionsQuestions??

www.smallarmssurvey.org/Sudanwww.smallarmssurvey.org/Sudan

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small arms survey 2008: risk and resilience