Slides IEF Lecture GJ Lankhorst 220109

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    Gertjan LankhorstCEO

    GasTerra B.V.

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    Demand for natural gas on the differentcontinents - 2007

    Source: IEA Natural gas information 2008

    Caloric value 40 MJ/m

    817

    129

    572

    520

    487

    97

    34

    370

    21

    -17

    260-168

    83

    -110

    -56

    -14

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    Demand for natural gas in Europe

    Source: Global Insight, European gas supply & demand service 2008

    Development Demand and EU production

    EU-31

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

    Bcm(

    40,0

    MJ/m)

    Primary gas demand Indigenous production (incl. Norway) Import

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    GasTerra and the Groningen Fieldthe birth of a European Gas Market

    Dutch State Royal Dutch Shell ExxonMobil

    GasTerraGroningen Field

    Dutch Small Fields

    Imports

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    Natural gas production per country - 2007

    Source: IEA Natural gas information 2008

    Caloric value 40 MJ/m

    Natural gas production (Bcm)

    1.073

    68

    70

    76

    76

    90

    91

    107

    183

    546

    651

    - 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200

    Other

    China

    Indonesia

    United Kingdom

    The Netherlands

    Algeria

    Norway

    Iran

    Canada

    United States

    Russia

    Bcm

    Natural gas production

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    European sales by company in 2006 (bcm)

    Source: Cedigaz, The players on the European market 2008 edition

    Caloric value 40 MJ/m

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    Sources: GTS and NationalGrid

    Traded volumes on NBP and TTF(average volumes per month)

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    jan-

    96

    jan-

    97

    jan-

    98

    jan-

    99

    jan-

    00

    jan-

    01

    jan-

    02

    jan-

    03

    jan-

    04

    jan-

    05

    jan-

    06

    jan-

    07

    jan-

    08

    TradedNBPvolum

    e(BCM)

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    TradedTTFvolum

    e(BCM)

    NBP

    TTF

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    Supply and demand of natural gas in Europe

    Verwacht overschot / tekort op Europese Gasbalans

    -120

    -100

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    [bcm-

    35,1

    7]

    Mid-Case High Supply Case Low Supply Case

    Supply/demand gap Europe

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    Forward spotprices and oil linked prices

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    2009 Q2 2009 Q4 2010 Q2 2010 Q4 2011 Q2 2011 Q4 2012 Q2 2012 Q4

    EUR/MWh

    Oil indexed gas price

    Spotprices (TTF forward prices)

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    Spotprices versus oil indexed prices(average prices per month)

    Source: Argus month ahead bid/offer averages and BAFA

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08

    EUR/MWh

    Oil indexed gas price

    Spotprices (TTF month ahead)

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    BBL - connecting markets

    enabling GasTerra to conclude a longterm contract with Centrica

    Gas-to-gas

    Gas-to-oil

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    Source: Argus bid/offer averages

    NBP and TTF year ahead(average prices per month)

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08

    EUR/MWh

    NBP

    TTF

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    Gas Infrastructure Projects