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SPATIAL SMALL AREA ESTIMATION FOR DETERMINATION OF UNDERDEVELOPED VILLAGES
IN THE PROVINCE OF YOGYAKARTA (DIY) IN 2011
Presented in
JIEB Best Paper Award 2012Cakra Kusuma Hotel Yogyakarta
November 24, 2012
Lilis Nurul HusnaSarpono
Background (1)
Poverty
pockets (areas) of poverty
poor households
poverty
alleviation
program
Background (2)
No districts classified as underdeveloped region(KPDT, 2012)
+
the poverty rate is the highest compared with other provinces in Java and Bali(BPS, 2012)
-
DIY 2011
DIY DKIBALI
BANTEN
JAW
A BARAT
JAW
A TIMUR
JAW
A TENGAH0
5
10
15
20 16.08
3.75 4.26.35
10.6514.23
15.76
Pove
rty
Rate
(%)
Poverty rate in the provinces in Java and Bali islands
Source: BPS
OBJECTIVE
Determining the underdeveloped villages
Basic Concept(1)What is poverty?
“Poverty is hunger. Poverty is lack of shelter. Poverty is being sickand not being able to go to school and not knowing to know how to read. Poverty is not having job, is fear for the future, living one day at a time. Poverty is losing a child to illness bring about by unclean water. Povety is powerlessness, lack of representation and freedom” (World Bank, 2000)
“the poor are people who have an average expenditure per capita per month under a line called the Line Poverty (GK)” (BPS, 2008)
Underdeveloped villages are villages whose condition is relatively worse from other villages (BPS, 2005).
What is underdeveloped villages??
Basic Concept (2)
the main indicator: expenditure
Basic Concept (3)
Importance of determining the underdeveloped villages
Determining underdeveloped villages
Detecting pockets of poverty
Reducing poverty rate
Basic Concept (4)
The factors suspected to be the cause of development of a village (BPS, 2005):
1. the natural factors/environmental, 2. institutional factors, 3. factors of facilities/infrastructure and access, and 4. the socio-economic factors.
Methodology (1)
National Economic and Social Survey
(Susenas)
the average per capita expenditure for
district level
How to get expenditure for
Village level ?
Methodology (2)
SMALL AREA ESTIMATION (World Bank, 2000)
Survey
Susenas 2011
Census
Podes 2011
GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION (GWR)
(adaptive spatial kernel bandwidth)
Methodology (3)Why use GWR?
Produce local parameter good for small area estimation
Including spatial aspect
Tobler’s First Law of Geography (1979) stated that, "everything is related toeverything else, but near things are more related than distant things”
Glasmeier (2002) states that poverty is essentially a problem of spatial (Brandon, 2006)
Methodology (4)
Dependent Variabel
• The average per capita household expenditure
Independent VariablesNature factor/environment
X1 Population densityInstitutional factor
X2 Government statusFactors of facilities/infrastructure and access
X3 Distance village office with the office of regentX4 number of education facilities per 100 populationX5 Number of medical facilities per 10 population
X6 Number of medical workers per 100 population
X7 Wartel existence
X8 Number of minimarket
Socio-economic FactorsX9 Precentage of family farmhouse
X10 Main income most residents
X11 Percentage of families who subscribe electric
X12 Precentage of families who live along the river
X13 Source of water used for drinking/cooking
X14 Existence of severe malnutritions
X15 Main fuel used most of the population
RESULT (1)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
Indonesia
DIY
Year
Pov
erty
Rat
e (%
)
Poverty Rate of DIY and Indonesia
RESULT (2)
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Kulon ProgoBantulGunung KidulSlemanKota YogyakartaProvinsi DIY
Year
Pove
rty
Rate
(%
)
Poverty Rate of DIY and Its districts
RESULT (3)
Global Moran I
Expenditure effected by
spatial aspect
No Criteria Value1 Global Moran's I 0,81132 E[I] -0,00233 p-value 0,001*)
4 Standart Deviation 0,02775 Mean -0,0036
RESULT (4)No Variable Min Median Max OLS1 X0 -7,25E+05 -4,55E+05 2,35E+06 -5,55E+05
2 X1 -1,51E+01 2,26E+00 2,53E+01 5,66E+003 X2 1,21E+05 3,44E+05 4,82E+05 3,08E+05
4 X3 -5,62E+04 -3,86E+03 2,53E+02 -2,92E+035 X4 -8,44E+05 -9,60E+04 1,33E+06 -4,76E+056 X5 -2,62E+05 -7,08E+04 3,00E+04 -2,04E+047 X6 -1,68E+06 -5,82E+04 3,07E+05 -1,28E+048 X7 -7,44E+04 -8,79E+03 1,36E+05 -4,10E+049 X8 7,66E+03 1,86E+04 2,96E+04 1,83E+04
10 X9 -5,08E+03 1,63E+03 2,92E+03 1,00E+0311 X10 -6,21E+04 1,52E+05 2,26E+05 1,68E+0512 X11 2,50E+03 3,45E+03 4,72E+03 3,76E+0313 X12 -1,08E+04 -1,92E+03 7,73E+03 -6,85E+0314 X13 -9,02E+04 -1,51E+04 6,63E+04 5,93E+0315 X14 -1,54E+05 -3,52E+03 1,33E+05 2,73E+0416 X15 -7,06E+05 1,24E+05 1,94E+05 1,35E+05
GWR Coefficient
RESULT (5)
Source of Variation SS Df MS F-stat P-value
OLS Residuals 1.39E+13 16
GWR Improvement 6.69E+12 65.086 1.03E+11
GWR Residuals 7.18E+12 157.914 4.54E+10 2.2633 1.44E-08
ANOVA
No. Criteria GWR OLS1 AIC 6495,562* 6599,752
2 R2 0,744872* 0,5751
3 204200,9* 231327,7
4 SSR 7,17E+12* 1,19E+13
* = best model
GWR VS OLS
No. District Sub-District Village1 Kulon Progo Temon Temon Kulon2 Kulon Progo Kalibawang Banjarharjo3 Kulon Progo Samigaluh Kebonharjo4 Kulon Progo Samigaluh Purwoharjo5 Kulon Progo Samigaluh Sidoharjo6 Kulon Progo Samigaluh Ngargosari7 Gunung Kidul Tanjungsari Kemadang8 Gunung Kidul Girisubo Tileng9 Gunung Kidul Girisubo Jerukwudel
10 Gunung Kidul Wonosari Wunung11 Gunung Kidul Playen Ngleri12 Gunung Kidul Gemdamg Sari Mertelu13 Gunung Kidul Nglipar Pilangrejo
From 438 villages in DIY there are 13 villages belonging to the underdeveloped villages.
RESULT (6)
List of Underdeveloped Villages
Characteristics of underdeveloped villages
RESULT (7)
LISA CLUSTERING MAP
A. Cluster
1. Nature factor/environment 2. Institutional factor
RESULT (8)
B. Villages Potensial
3. Factors of facilities/infrastructure and access
RESULT (9)
4. Socio-economic Factors
RESULT (10)
Conclusions and Recommendations
Although in Medium Term Development Plan (RPJM) 2010-2014 no district in DIY is classified as underdeveloped district, but in the smaller scope, there are 13 villages was still classified as underdeveloped village. They can be a reference in determining the pro-poor development priorities and deliver direct assistance programs, such as fuel subsidies.
Most of underdeveloped villages are lack in number of population, telecommunication facilities, minimarket, and medical worker. Most of society in underdeveloped villages are farmers. They use firewood to cook. They also get water to drink and cook from ground, river, or rain. These aspects have to get serious attention from the government.