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1/14

P atts6t

Annua

Cru e

O

Summit

London,14May2013

OECD/IEA2013

OECD/IEA2013


2/14

A pivotal time in oil markets

7.0

mb/d Medium-Term Oil Market Balance

4.0

5.0

6.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

-1.0

0.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Implied OPEC Spare Capac ity World Demand Growth World Supply Capac ity Growth

OECD/IEA2013


3/14

Demand: rise of the non-OECD region

Global Oil Demand Growth7.5%

2.5%

5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

-5.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

OECD Non-OECD

OECD/IEA2013


4/14

Transport still drives oil use

but transport gas is around the corner

Global Road Trans ort Sector

60%

80%

100%

,

15 000

20%

40%10 000

1990 2000 2010 2015 2018

Gasoline Diesel Natural gas LPG Others

5 000

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

OECD Non-OECD

OECD/IEA2013


5/14

US & Iraq lead supply growth

mb/dGlobal Liquids Growth 2012-18

0.5

8.48

10

Crude US Light Tight Oil

NGLs Non-Conv

Biofuels Processing Gain

2.31.4

2.0

2.4

.

4

6

1.81.0

2.8..

0OPEC* Non-OPEC Total

* OPEC crude is ca acit additions

Global Refinery processing gains included in Non-OPEC

OECD/IEA2013


6/14

New trends in capital expenditures

,

w

500

600

80%

90%

100%

)

300

400

40%

50%

60%

70%

Billion

eof

Capex(% Total Capex (RHS)

Other

Oil Sands

Deepwater

Tight Oil

100

200

10%

20%

30%Shar

22%16%

7%

14%

-

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Source: IEAAnalysisofRystadEnergy. Oil depositsonly.

OECD/IEA2013


7/14

Non-OPEC supply: West Side story

mb/dNon-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change

0.6

1.0

.

-0.2

0.2

-1.0

-0.6

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

NAM LAM OECD EUR FSU China

Af rica PG & B iofuels Oth er Non-OPEC Total

OECD/IEA2013


8/14

OPEC capacity growth hits hurdlesGrowth now forecast at 1.75 mb/d, to 36.75 mb/d

Chan e in OPEC Crude Oil

0.60.81.01.2

Production Capacity

-0.4-0.20.00.2.

-0.8- .

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Iran IraqUAE Saudi Arabia

er o a

OECD/IEA2013


9/14

Mid. East leads OPEC capacity growthIraq, Saudi Arabia and UAE offset Iran decline

Incremental OPEC Crude

NigeriaUAE

AngolaIraq

ro uc on apac y -

QatarAlgeria

KuwaitVenezuela

ya

-1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6

IranSaudi Arabia

cua or

mb/d

OECD/IEA2013


10/14

Biofuels supplies grow to 2.4 mb/d

mb/d

1.5

2.0

.

0.5

1.0

.2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Rest of Global Biofuels OECD EUR Biofuels

OECD/IEA2013


11/14

Rise of the non-OECD refining titans

Global CDU capacity seen up by 9.5 mb/d; refining

capacity gets more sophisticated

Regional Share of CDU Expansions

China

45%

OtherAsia14%

LatinAmerica

MiddleEast22%

Other5%

OECD/IEA2013

China leads CDU additions


12/14

N. American refining: focus onupgrading & desulpherisation

0.5

mb/d North American Capacity Additions

0.30.4

0.0

0.1

.

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Crude Distillation Upgrading Desulphurisation

OECD/IEA2013Latin America still an import magnet


13/14

Crude trade contracts, flows shift

Crude Exports in 2018 and Growth in 2012-18 for Key Trade Routes*(million barrels per day)

xc u es n ra- eg ona ra e

OECD

0.3 (+0.1)

2.9(-1.4)

3.1

(-0.6) 3.9(-0.9)

0.3(-0.8)

China

1.3(-0.3)

1.4 (+0.7)OECDPacific

0.7(+0.3)

NorthAmeri ca

2.9

1.6 (0.3)

1.2 (+0.4)-0.3

1.5

1.7 (+0.8)

6.2

(+0.8)

Other Asia

(-1)

0.5(+0.4)

OECD/IEA2013

0.5Red number in brackets deno tes growth in period 2011-18 (+0)


14/14

N. American imports plunge

OriginofNorthAmericanCrudeImportsin2012and2018

1.1

0.3

2012

0.3

0.2

2018

millionbarrelsperday

2.7

1.5

1.7

1.2

Mid dle East L at in America Af rica Others Mid dle East L at in America Af rica Others

OECD/IEA2013

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