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Slide 1 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EFI (instructor led activity)Southern Africa
Slide 2 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EFI
Extremely Fantastic Intuition
Extreme Forecast IndexEFI is a measure of the difference between the ENS distribution and a model climate (M-climate) distribution.
Slide 3 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EFI
0 7 9 11 12 13…
12 0 9 7 13 11…Ordering
0
1
0
1
-10 -5 0 5 1510 20 25 -10 -5 0 5 1510 20 25
CDF PDF
Probability of not
exceedingThreshold
Density per
thresholdInterval
(normalised)
model climateeps forecast
parameter value parameter value
Slide 4 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Represented by pink lines below
More weight to extremes of M-climate
EFI = 78%
M-climateEPS
EFI takes no direct account of any EPS members beyond the M-climate extremes
-1 ≤ EFI ≤ 1
-100% ≤ EFI ≤ 100%
p
)(pFf
Slide 5 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
What can we say about CDFs of successive ENS runs?
M-climate
SuccessiveENS runs
rank
value Lateral variations in CDF position between successive runs are due
to the model/flow uncertainty
A steeper CDF implies higher confidence.
Slide 6 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EPSgrams – D+9
Slide 14 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
HRES & ENS
D+7 D+8
Slide 15 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
HRES & ENSD+7 D+8
Slide 16 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EPSgrams – D+7
Slide 17 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
ENS Probabilities T+168-192
>10mm >20mm
Slide 22 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EPSgrams – D+5
Slide 23 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
HRES & ENSD+6D+5
Slide 24 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
HRES & ENSD+5 D+6
Slide 25 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
ENS Probabilities T+120-144
>10mm >20mm
Slide 26 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EPSgrams – D+4
Slide 27 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
HRES & ENSD+5D+4
Slide 28 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
HRES & ENSD+4 D+5
Slide 29 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
ENS Probabilities T+96-120
>10mm >20mm
Slide 30 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EFI T+96-120
Precipitation Temperature
Slide 31 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EPSgrams – D+3
Slide 32 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
HRES & ENSD+4D+3
Slide 33 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
HRES & ENS D+4D+3
Slide 34 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
ENS Probabilities T+72-96
>10mm >20mm
Slide 35 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EFI T+72-92
Precipitation Temperature
Slide 36 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EPSgrams – D+2
Slide 37 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
HRES & ENSD+3D+2
Slide 38 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
ENS Probabilities T+48-72
>10mm >20mm
Slide 39 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EFI T+48-72
Precipitation Temperature
Slide 40 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EPSgrams – D+1
Slide 41 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
HRES & ENSD+2D+1
Slide 42 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
ENS Probabilities T+24-48
>10mm >20mm
Slide 43 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EFI T+24-48
Precipitation Temperature
Slide 44 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EPSgrams – D+0
Slide 45 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EFI T+00-24
Precipitation Temperature
Slide 46 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
EFI snow
96-120h 72-96h
48-72h 24-48h
Slide 47 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
M-Climate
Precipitation - Q98 Temperature – Q2
Snow – Q98
Slide 48 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Verification
Slide 49 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Observed Precipitation
25.07/06UTC-26.07/06UTC
Observed Precipitation
26.07/06UTC-27.07/06UTC
Durban
Slide 50 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Observations
Slide 51 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Observations
Slide 52 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Observations
Slide 53 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Observations
Slide 54 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Observations
Slide 55 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Snow
Slide 56 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Snow, Forecast
Slide 57 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Bethlehem Airport
Observed
Forecast
Slide 58 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Bethlehem Airport
Observed
Forecast
Slide 59 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF
Hogsback, 1543m above sea level
0°C
M-climate, snow
