SLIDE 1

Dan RickmanRegents Professor of Economics andOklahoma Gas and Electric Services Chair in Regional Economic Analysis

Oklahoma State Universityhttp://economy.okstate.edu/

Oklahoma Economic Outlook 2016

SLIDE 2

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth (%):IHS Global Insight Forecast

2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q40.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

U.S. Real GDP-Pess U.S. Real GDP-Base

SLIDE 3

Oil Prices (IHS Global Insight, Inc.): West Texas Intermediate Oil ($/bbl)

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q430

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

40.450.1

53.156.8

WTI-Pess WTI-Base

SLIDE 4

Natural Gas Prices (IHS Global Insight, Inc.): Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmBtu)

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q42.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

PNGHH-Pess

SLIDE 5October 2014-2015 BLS Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates (%)

North Dakota

West Virginia

Louisiana

Oklahoma

Wyoming

New Mexico

Illinois

Alaska

Mississippi

Kansas

Vermont

Pennsylvania

MinnesotaMontana Maine

DelawareMissouri

New Hampshire

District of Columbia

Alabama

Nebraska

Rhode Island

Virginia

New Jersey

Iowa

Ohio

Connecticut

Arkansas

Kentucky

Texas

Tennessee

New YorkWisconsinSouth Dakota

Michigan

Hawaii

Maryland

Indiana

Colorado

North Carolina

Georgia

Arizona

Massachusetts

Oregon

South Carolina

California

Washington

Florida

NevadaUtah

Idaho

-3.00 to 0.900.90 to 1.441.44 to 2.172.17 to 4.79

0.1

0.4

0.2

-2.0

-1.8

0.8

U.S. = 1.9

SLIDE 6

Oklahoma Rotary Rig Count (Baker Hughes)

2000

Q1

2000

Q3

2001

Q1

2001

Q3

2002

Q1

2002

Q3

2003

Q1

2003

Q3

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

2007

Q3

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

2009

Q1

2009

Q3

2010

Q1

2010

Q3

2011

Q1

2011

Q3

2012

Q1

2012

Q3

2013

Q1

2013

Q3

2014

Q1

2014

Q3

2015

Q1

2015

Q350

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

7881

Oklahoma Rig Count

SLIDE 7

Oklahoma Energy Production: Deseasonalized (2000:1=1)

2005M012005M112006M092007M072008M052009M032010M012010M112011M092012M072013M052014M032015M010.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

Natural Gas Oil

SLIDE 8

U.S. and Oklahoma Mining Employment (Annualized %Change)

2000

Q2

2001

Q1

2001

Q4

2002

Q3

2003

Q2

2004

Q1

2004

Q4

2005

Q3

2006

Q2

2007

Q1

2007

Q4

2008

Q3

2009

Q2

2010

Q1

2010

Q4

2011

Q3

2012

Q2

2013

Q1

2013

Q4

2014

Q3

2015

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2017

Q3

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

US Mining OK Mining

SLIDE 9

US and Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates (Deseasonalized Annualized % change)

2008

Q1

2008

Q4

2009

Q3

2010

Q2

2011

Q1

2011

Q4

2012

Q3

2013

Q2

2014

Q1

2014

Q4

2015

Q3

2016

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2018

Q3

2019

Q2

2020

Q1

2020

Q4

2021

Q3

2022

Q2

2023

Q1

2023

Q4

2024

Q3

2025

Q2

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

US Nonfarm Emp OK Nonfarm Emp

SLIDE 10

Pessimistic Scenario: Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q41,650

1,660

1,670

1,680

1,690

1,700

1,710

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

1.00%

0.22%

0.76%

0.94%

Difference OK Nonfarm Emp-Pess OK Nonfarm Emp-Base

SLIDE 11

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