Skip Laitner, EPA and Jonathan Koomey, LBNL [email protected], 202/564-9833

Environmental Energy TechnologiesNEMSinternettalk001022.ppt

Re-estimating the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 Forecast Using Updated Assumptions about the

Internet Economy

Skip Laitner, EPA and Jonathan Koomey, [email protected], 202/564-9833

[email protected], 510/486-5974, http://enduse.lbl.gov/

Talk is on the web at

http://enduse.lbl.gov/shareddata/NEMSinternettalk001022.ppt

Presented at the Earth Technologies Forum

Washington DC

October 30, 2000


Background Issue: AEO 2000 forecast may not

incorporate some important recent trends.

Question: What effect would incorporating such trends have on energy use and carbon emissions in 2010?

Tool: Use LBNL’s version of the National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS), which we’ve worked with since 1995.


Comparison of U.S. Energy Projections:A Difference in Technology Assumptions

60

80

100

120

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Energy Use (Quads) Historical Consumption

Low-Energy Future ProjectionBased Upon 1980 DOE Analysis

EPA/LBNL Scenario

AEO 2000 Forecast

Typical ForecastsPre-1980

Source: EPA estimates and 1980 DOE Policy Analysis


Recent Trends in U.S. Energy Intensity

10

12

14

16

18

20

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

Thousand Btus/$GDP


The Information and CommunicationTechnologies Diffusion Curve

Where the economyseems to be right now

Where most modelsseem to focus


Methodology Method: Adjust AEO forecast to account for possible

effects of new trends and programs. Postulate changes relative to the AEO 2000 in the following areas:

— Paper and cement production (down in 2010 by 7 Mt and 6 Mt, respectively)

— Vehicle miles traveled (down about 4% in 2010)— Commercial floor area (down 10% by 2006).— Combined heat and power (up 20 GW by 2010)— Structural change (shift towards IT)— Voluntary programs more fully incorporated


Comparison of historical cement, paper and steel production trends to the AEO 2000 scenario

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Cement-AEOPaper-AEOSteel-AEOCementPaperSteel

AEO-2000Historical

Data Sources: LBNL (historical trends), EIA (1999).


Results for 2010 AEO 2000 Forecast = 1787 Million Metric Tons Carbon (MtC) Downward shifts from the new economy might equal 76 MtC

— Reduced Paper and Cement Consumption = 6 MtC— Reduced Transportation Consumption = 15 MtC— Reduced Commercial Building Space = 16 MtC— Increased CHP/DES/Gasification Systems = 8 MtC— Structural change in the Economy = 31 MtC

Voluntary programs may add as much as 40 MtC additional savings.

Incorporating all these effects (including take-back) might reduce carbon emissions by about 100 MtC in 2010, or about 6% below AEO 2000 levels.


More Questions than Answers

Would a better definition and measurement of the ICT-sectors either weaken or improve the supposed benefits?

How will competition and innovation within the ICT-sectors affect productivity gains throughout the nation’s economy? How will they impact other inflationary pressures? Will we see managed but positive deconstruction or wild and woolly creative destruction?

Are there other tradeoffs not anticipated by the transition to an information-age economy, including changes in distributional benefits, consumer or producer surpluses, the increased reliance on imported or critical materials, or other environmental and economic impacts?

Will the resources devoted to ICT-infrastructure improvements reduce the opportunities for improvement in other sectors of the economy?

Can we make this positive vision of the future come to pass?


Conclusions Potential effects explored in this analysis are

large enough to matter.

Large uncertainties remain in analyzed effects, particularly in those related to systemic effects of E-commerce on resource use.

Other effects not included here— Reduced building construction— Outsourcing of energy services— Changes in other materials use

Documents

Skip Laitner, EPA and Jonathan Koomey, LBNL [email protected], 202/564-9833