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SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
SISMOS SIN FRONTERAS:
Dos Países, Una Respuesta
Jorge F. Meneses Principal Geotechnical Engineer, RMA Group, Inc.
Commissioner, California Seismic Safety Commission
President, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) San Diego Chapter
EERI Board of Directors Member
2a Reunion Regional Noroeste
Tijuana, Baja California
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
This project is an update of the 1990 Earthquake Scenario
developed for the San Diego-Tijuana Region by the
California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines
and Geology.
ORGANIZATION
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
• Working Group 1: Earthquake Hazards
• Working Group 2: Impact to Built Environment
• Working Group 3: Social and Economic Impact
Working Groups
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Working Group 1 – Earthquake Hazards
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
1. Historical Earthquake
2. Scenario Earthquake
3. Earthquake Shaking
4. Earthquake Secondary
Hazards
Working Group 1 - Earthquake Hazards
San Diego, CA
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
1. HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE – 155 years ago
The Day of Terror - San Diego’s 1862 Earthquake
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
2. SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE
The Fault – Rose Canyon Fault
10:20am on Oct 20, 20XX – M6.9
– Crustal Strike-Slip (Right Lateral)
– Surface Rupture (South)
• Offshore-LJ-OT-SD-Silver Strand
• Length 69km (43 miles)
• Slip 2m max (6.6ft Horiz)
• Unilateral Rupture
• Directivity Towards Tijuana
– Epicenter
• Location N33.01 W117.32
• Depth 7.7km (4.8 miles)
– Recurrence Interval 1,000 years
• 2mm/yr Slip Rate (0.08 inches)
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Direct Surface Rupture
2010 Mexico -100 miles from San Diego
M7.2
1992 Landers CA M7.3
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Failure Rupture
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Liquefaction
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Liquefaction
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Direct Surface Rupture and Slip Distribution
Public Fault Map Rupture & Slip http://www.sandiegogeologists.org/Faults_map.html
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
SCENARIO SHAKEMAP – Intensity
Updates Implemented for this ShakeMap:
Directivity towards TJ.
Vs30: Avg Seismic Shear Velocity Surface to 30Meters: new
Tijuana Vs30 & new Wills 2015 CA Vs30.
Next Generation Ground Motion Attenuation Model NGAW2.
Warmer Colors
correlate to areas of
greater damage.
This M6.9
Earthquake creates
significant damage!
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
4. EARTHQUAKE SECONDARY HAZARDS
• Liquefaction/Groundwater
• Seismic Landslides
• Submarine Landslide (off-shore) Tsunami
• Flooding: Rodriquez Dam – Tijuana?
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Liquefaction for HAZUS
2018 Liquefaction Susceptibility Data (Modified from USGS 2008 data by San Diego Scenario Hazards Team)
2018 Depth to Groundwater Data (Modified from USGS 2008 data by San Diego Scenario Hazards Team)
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Groundwater for HAZUS
2018 Liquefaction Susceptibility Data (Modified from USGS 2008 data by San Diego Scenario Hazards Team)
2018 Depth to Groundwater Data (Modified from USGS 2008 data by San Diego Scenario Hazards Team)
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Seismic Slope Displacement Map
Kleinfelder GIS – PGA 2% 50 year for San Diego County
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Submarine Landslide Tsunami Location
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Flooding: Rodriguez Dam Failure Tijuana?
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Working Group 2 – Impact to Built Environment
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Schools with Moderate or Greater Damage
Plus major lifeline disruptions along coast (ground failure)
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Hospitals with Moderate or Greater Damage
Plus major lifeline disruptions along coast (ground failure)
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
City Owned & Leased Facilities: --- key facilities concentrated around fault.
Potentially
extensive loss of
City services &
government
functions.
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Consider Added Impacts from Lifeline losses due to Ground Failures
• Water & Waste Water • Rupture of major pipelines serving Coastal communities
• Bridges • Structural vulnerability despite seismic retrofits (Coronado, Mission Valley)
• Roadways & Rail lines • Closures along I-5 corridor, Amtrak, Coaster & Light-rail
• Lifelines: Pipelines & Transmission Systems • Natural gas, fuel pipeline ruptures
• Electric power & electronic communication systems disruptions
• Ports, Airports, Transportation Stations • Months disruption to SDIA and port facilities
• Border Crossings • Major disruptions due to liquefaction - bridges, access roads
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Water Service Disruptions
Loss of Water
Service
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Wastewater Service Disruptions
No Water
Service
= No Sewer
Service
No access
To Pt. Loma.
Sewer empties
into River & Bay
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Highways & Rail Lines – Potential Disruptions
Fault rupture line
Strikes through
Highways and colored
Rail lines
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Natural Gas & Petroleum Pipeline Ruptures
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
• The surface fault ruptures and liquefaction ground
failures are expected to have major socio-economic
impacts, not captured in the Hazus model.
• These impact are a key subject for consideration in
today’s workshop.
– What are the added impacts of these disruptions?
– (water, sewer, natural gas, petroleum, SDG&E)
– What are the recovery times?
– How many people & services for how long?
Lifeline Infrastructure Disruptions: --- Major Socio-Economic Impacts
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
• Inventory
– San Diego Population: 3,095,313 (2010 Census)
– 696 thousand buildings
– $379 billion in building replacement value
– $18 billion in transportation & utility lifelines
• Preliminary Loss Estimates (8-29-2018):
– Hospitals: 2,820 of 6,574 beds lost on day one
– Schools: 514 of 993 schools lose >50% functionality
– Police & fire: 40% to 50% lose >50% functionality
– Housing: 23,273 seek temporary shelter
– Fatalities: 784 Injuries: 12,800
– Economic losses: $37 Billion, plus lifeline effects
WG2 Hazus Summary – US only
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
A magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred 17km (10.6 miles) NNE of Ridgecrest,
California at a depth of 17 km (10.6 miles). The earthquake was felt as far
north as San Jose and as far south as Mexico.
This earthquake follows a magnitude 6.4 Thursday that we can now define
as a foreshock. The energy released from a magnitude 7.1 earthquake is 11
times stronger than from a magnitude 6.4 earthquake.
Magnitude 7.1 RIDGECREST, CALIFORNIA Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 03:19:52 UTC
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
USGS PAGER
Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
Image courtesy of the US Geological Survey
The color coded contour lines outline regions of MMI intensity.
The total population exposure to a given MMI value is obtained by summing the
population between the contour lines. The estimated population exposure to each
MMI Intensity is shown in the table.
The USGS PAGER map shows the population
exposed to different Modified Mercalli Intensity
(MMI) levels.
30,000 people were exposed to severe shaking
from this earthquake.
Magnitude 7.1 RIDGECREST, CALIFORNIA Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 03:19:52 UTC
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Ridgecrest and Trona actually received less intense shaking from the M7.1 eq than much
of the San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys did in the 1994 M6.7 Northridge eq
Why no much damage?
SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Why no much damage?
LOW EXPOSURE
• Small population (Ridgecrest: 28,000; Trona: 2,000)
• Mostly 1- and 2-story buildings from 80’s
• Mostly light weight wooden structures
• Mo much infrastructure (bridges, high retaining walls, etc.)