Single Electricity Market Update

Liam Ryan

SEMO

Participants in the SEM• Registered Capacity in the Market: 9899 MW

– Thermal plant 8191 MM– Wind 1186MW – Pumped Storage 292 MW – Hydro 216 MW– Biomass 14 MW

– 50 Participants have registered in SEM– 8 new Participants have joined the SEM in 2009

• 42 Participants have registered Generator Units

Financial SummaryNovember 07 to September 08

11 mthsEUR m

October 08 to August 0911 mthsEUR m

% Change

Energy Payments

                         € 2,626                          €1,831 -30%

Constraints                             €116                              €93 -19.8%

Capacity                             €442                             €553 25%

                          €3,183                          €2,477 -22%

Avg. Daily SMP 2008 v 2009

Ex-Post Initial Market - 2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Trading Periods

Sy

stem

Lo

ad

(M

W)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Sy

stem

Ma

rgin

a P

rice

(€

/MW

h)

System Load

SMP

• Year to date Demand Reduction

SMP to Gas Prices 2008/2009

€0.00

€20.00

€40.00

€60.00

€80.00

€100.00

€120.0001/0

1/2

008

01/0

2/2

008

01/0

3/2

008

01/0

4/2

008

01/0

5/2

008

01/0

6/2

008

01/0

7/2

008

01/0

8/2

008

01/0

9/2

008

01/1

0/2

008

01/1

1/2

008

01/1

2/2

008

01/0

1/2

009

01/0

2/2

009

01/0

3/2

009

01/0

4/2

009

01/0

5/2

009

01/0

6/2

009

01/0

7/2

009

01/0

8/2

009

01/0

9/2

009

Trading Month

Mo

nth

ly V

olu

me

Weig

hte

d A

vera

ge

SM

P (

€)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mo

nth

ly A

vera

ge

Gas P

rice (

£)

Volume Weighted Average SMP (€) Average Gas Price (£)

Mon

thly

Vol

. Wei

ghte

d A

vera

ge S

MP

(€/

MW

h)

Mon

thly

Ave

rage

Gas

Pri

ce (

pen

ce p

er T

her

m)

Month

WIND – Metered Quantity v Installed Capacity

33% Load factor

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

01/0

1/2

00

802/0

1/2

00

803/0

1/2

00

804/0

1/2

00

805/0

1/2

00

806/0

1/2

00

807/0

1/2

00

808/0

1/2

00

809/0

1/2

00

810/0

1/2

00

811/0

1/2

00

812/0

1/2

00

813/0

1/2

00

814/0

1/2

00

815/0

1/2

00

816/0

1/2

00

817/0

1/2

00

818/0

1/2

00

819/0

1/2

00

820/0

1/2

00

821/0

1/2

00

822/0

1/2

00

823/0

1/2

00

824/0

1/2

00

825/0

1/2

00

826/0

1/2

00

827/0

1/2

00

828/0

1/2

00

829/0

1/2

00

830/0

1/2

00

831/0

1/2

00

801/0

2/2

00

802/0

2/2

00

803/0

2/2

00

804/0

2/2

00

805/0

2/2

00

806/0

2/2

00

807/0

2/2

00

808/0

2/2

00

809/0

2/2

00

810/0

2/2

00

811/0

2/2

00

812/0

2/2

00

813/0

2/2

00

814/0

2/2

00

815/0

2/2

00

816/0

2/2

00

817/0

2/2

00

818/0

2/2

00

819/0

2/2

00

820/0

2/2

00

821/0

2/2

00

822/0

2/2

00

823/0

2/2

00

824/0

2/2

00

825/0

2/2

00

826/0

2/2

00

827/0

2/2

00

828/0

2/2

00

829/0

2/2

00

801/0

3/2

00

802/0

3/2

00

803/0

3/2

00

804/0

3/2

00

805/0

3/2

00

806/0

3/2

00

807/0

3/2

00

808/0

3/2

00

809/0

3/2

00

810/0

3/2

00

811/0

3/2

00

812/0

3/2

00

813/0

3/2

00

814/0

3/2

00

815/0

3/2

00

816/0

3/2

00

817/0

3/2

00

818/0

3/2

00

819/0

3/2

00

820/0

3/2

00

821/0

3/2

00

822/0

3/2

00

823/0

3/2

00

824/0

3/2

00

825/0

3/2

00

826/0

3/2

00

827/0

3/2

00

828/0

3/2

00

829/0

3/2

00

830/0

3/2

00

831/0

3/2

00

801/0

4/2

00

802/0

4/2

00

803/0

4/2

00

804/0

4/2

00

805/0

4/2

00

806/0

4/2

00

807/0

4/2

00

808/0

4/2

00

809/0

4/2

00

810/0

4/2

00

811/0

4/2

00

812/0

4/2

00

813/0

4/2

00

814/0

4/2

00

815/0

4/2

00

816/0

4/2

00

817/0

4/2

00

818/0

4/2

00

819/0

4/2

00

820/0

4/2

00

821/0

4/2

00

822/0

4/2

00

823/0

4/2

00

824/0

4/2

00

825/0

4/2

00

826/0

4/2

00

827/0

4/2

00

828/0

4/2

00

829/0

4/2

00

830/0

4/2

00

801/0

5/2

00

802/0

5/2

00

803/0

5/2

00

804/0

5/2

00

805/0

5/2

00

806/0

5/2

00

807/0

5/2

00

808/0

5/2

00

809/0

5/2

00

810/0

5/2

00

811/0

5/2

00

812/0

5/2

00

813/0

5/2

00

814/0

5/2

00

815/0

5/2

00

816/0

5/2

00

817/0

5/2

00

818/0

5/2

00

819/0

5/2

00

820/0

5/2

00

821/0

5/2

00

822/0

5/2

00

823/0

5/2

00

824/0

5/2

00

825/0

5/2

00

826/0

5/2

00

827/0

5/2

00

828/0

5/2

00

829/0

5/2

00

830/0

5/2

00

831/0

5/2

00

801/0

6/2

00

802/0

6/2

00

803/0

6/2

00

804/0

6/2

00

805/0

6/2

00

806/0

6/2

00

807/0

6/2

00

808/0

6/2

00

809/0

6/2

00

810/0

6/2

00

811/0

6/2

00

812/0

6/2

00

813/0

6/2

00

814/0

6/2

00

815/0

6/2

00

816/0

6/2

00

817/0

6/2

00

818/0

6/2

00

819/0

6/2

00

820/0

6/2

00

821/0

6/2

00

822/0

6/2

00

823/0

6/2

00

824/0

6/2

00

825/0

6/2

00

826/0

6/2

00

827/0

6/2

00

828/0

6/2

00

829/0

6/2

00

830/0

6/2

00

801/0

7/2

00

802/0

7/2

00

803/0

7/2

00

804/0

7/2

00

805/0

7/2

00

806/0

7/2

00

807/0

7/2

00

808/0

7/2

00

809/0

7/2

00

810/0

7/2

00

811/0

7/2

00

812/0

7/2

00

813/0

7/2

00

814/0

7/2

00

815/0

7/2

00

816/0

7/2

00

817/0

7/2

00

818/0

7/2

00

819/0

7/2

00

820/0

7/2

00

821/0

7/2

00

822/0

7/2

00

823/0

7/2

00

824/0

7/2

00

825/0

7/2

00

826/0

7/2

00

827/0

7/2

00

828/0

7/2

00

829/0

7/2

00

830/0

7/2

00

831/0

7/2

00

801/0

8/2

00

802/0

8/2

00

803/0

8/2

00

804/0

8/2

00

805/0

8/2

00

806/0

8/2

00

807/0

8/2

00

808/0

8/2

00

809/0

8/2

00

810/0

8/2

00

811/0

8/2

00

812/0

8/2

00

813/0

8/2

00

814/0

8/2

00

815/0

8/2

00

816/0

8/2

00

817/0

8/2

00

818/0

8/2

00

819/0

8/2

00

820/0

8/2

00

821/0

8/2

00

822/0

8/2

00

823/0

8/2

00

824/0

8/2

00

825/0

8/2

00

826/0

8/2

00

827/0

8/2

00

828/0

8/2

00

829/0

8/2

00

830/0

8/2

00

831/0

8/2

00

801/0

9/2

00

802/0

9/2

00

803/0

9/2

00

804/0

9/2

00

805/0

9/2

00

806/0

9/2

00

807/0

9/2

00

808/0

9/2

00

809/0

9/2

00

810/0

9/2

00

811/0

9/2

00

812/0

9/2

00

813/0

9/2

00

814/0

9/2

00

815/0

9/2

00

816/0

9/2

00

817/0

9/2

00

818/0

9/2

00

819/0

9/2

00

820/0

9/2

00

821/0

9/2

00

822/0

9/2

00

823/0

9/2

00

824/0

9/2

00

825/0

9/2

00

826/0

9/2

00

827/0

9/2

00

828/0

9/2

00

829/0

9/2

00

830/0

9/2

00

801/1

0/2

00

802/1

0/2

00

803/1

0/2

00

804/1

0/2

00

805/1

0/2

00

806/1

0/2

00

807/1

0/2

00

808/1

0/2

00

809/1

0/2

00

810/1

0/2

00

811/1

0/2

00

812/1

0/2

00

813/1

0/2

00

814/1

0/2

00

815/1

0/2

00

816/1

0/2

00

817/1

0/2

00

818/1

0/2

00

819/1

0/2

00

820/1

0/2

00

821/1

0/2

00

822/1

0/2

00

823/1

0/2

00

824/1

0/2

00

825/1

0/2

00

826/1

0/2

00

827/1

0/2

00

828/1

0/2

00

829/1

0/2

00

830/1

0/2

00

831/1

0/2

00

801/1

1/2

00

802/1

1/2

00

803/1

1/2

00

804/1

1/2

00

805/1

1/2

00

806/1

1/2

00

807/1

1/2

00

808/1

1/2

00

809/1

1/2

00

810/1

1/2

00

811/1

1/2

00

812/1

1/2

00

813/1

1/2

00

814/1

1/2

00

815/1

1/2

00

816/1

1/2

00

817/1

1/2

00

818/1

1/2

00

819/1

1/2

00

820/1

1/2

00

821/1

1/2

00

822/1

1/2

00

823/1

1/2

00

824/1

1/2

00

825/1

1/2

00

826/1

1/2

00

827/1

1/2

00

828/1

1/2

00

829/1

1/2

00

830/1

1/2

00

801/1

2/2

00

802/1

2/2

00

803/1

2/2

00

804/1

2/2

00

805/1

2/2

00

806/1

2/2

00

807/1

2/2

00

808/1

2/2

00

809/1

2/2

00

810/1

2/2

00

811/1

2/2

00

812/1

2/2

00

813/1

2/2

00

814/1

2/2

00

815/1

2/2

00

816/1

2/2

00

817/1

2/2

00

818/1

2/2

00

819/1

2/2

00

820/1

2/2

00

821/1

2/2

00

822/1

2/2

00

823/1

2/2

00

824/1

2/2

00

825/1

2/2

00

826/1

2/2

00

827/1

2/2

00

828/1

2/2

00

829/1

2/2

00

830/1

2/2

00

831/1

2/2

00

801/0

1/2

00

902/0

1/2

00

903/0

1/2

00

904/0

1/2

00

905/0

1/2

00

906/0

1/2

00

907/0

1/2

00

908/0

1/2

00

909/0

1/2

00

910/0

1/2

00

911/0

1/2

00

912/0

1/2

00

913/0

1/2

00

914/0

1/2

00

915/0

1/2

00

916/0

1/2

00

917/0

1/2

00

918/0

1/2

00

919/0

1/2

00

920/0

1/2

00

921/0

1/2

00

922/0

1/2

00

923/0

1/2

00

924/0

1/2

00

925/0

1/2

00

926/0

1/2

00

927/0

1/2

00

928/0

1/2

00

929/0

1/2

00

930/0

1/2

00

931/0

1/2

00

901/0

2/2

00

902/0

2/2

00

903/0

2/2

00

904/0

2/2

00

905/0

2/2

00

906/0

2/2

00

907/0

2/2

00

908/0

2/2

00

909/0

2/2

00

910/0

2/2

00

911/0

2/2

00

912/0

2/2

00

913/0

2/2

00

914/0

2/2

00

915/0

2/2

00

916/0

2/2

00

917/0

2/2

00

918/0

2/2

00

919/0

2/2

00

920/0

2/2

00

921/0

2/2

00

922/0

2/2

00

923/0

2/2

00

924/0

2/2

00

925/0

2/2

00

926/0

2/2

00

927/0

2/2

00

928/0

2/2

00

901/0

3/2

00

902/0

3/2

00

903/0

3/2

00

904/0

3/2

00

905/0

3/2

00

906/0

3/2

00

907/0

3/2

00

908/0

3/2

00

909/0

3/2

00

910/0

3/2

00

911/0

3/2

00

912/0

3/2

00

913/0

3/2

00

914/0

3/2

00

915/0

3/2

00

916/0

3/2

00

917/0

3/2

00

918/0

3/2

00

919/0

3/2

00

920/0

3/2

00

921/0

3/2

00

922/0

3/2

00

923/0

3/2

00

924/0

3/2

00

925/0

3/2

00

926/0

3/2

00

927/0

3/2

00

928/0

3/2

00

929/0

3/2

00

930/0

3/2

00

931/0

3/2

00

901/0

4/2

00

902/0

4/2

00

903/0

4/2

00

904/0

4/2

00

905/0

4/2

00

906/0

4/2

00

907/0

4/2

00

908/0

4/2

00

909/0

4/2

00

910/0

4/2

00

911/0

4/2

00

912/0

4/2

00

913/0

4/2

00

914/0

4/2

00

915/0

4/2

00

916/0

4/2

00

917/0

4/2

00

918/0

4/2

00

919/0

4/2

00

920/0

4/2

00

921/0

4/2

00

922/0

4/2

00

923/0

4/2

00

924/0

4/2

00

925/0

4/2

00

926/0

4/2

00

927/0

4/2

00

928/0

4/2

00

929/0

4/2

00

930/0

4/2

00

901/0

5/2

00

902/0

5/2

00

903/0

5/2

00

904/0

5/2

00

905/0

5/2

00

906/0

5/2

00

907/0

5/2

00

908/0

5/2

00

909/0

5/2

00

910/0

5/2

00

911/0

5/2

00

912/0

5/2

00

913/0

5/2

00

914/0

5/2

00

915/0

5/2

00

916/0

5/2

00

917/0

5/2

00

918/0

5/2

00

919/0

5/2

00

920/0

5/2

00

921/0

5/2

00

922/0

5/2

00

923/0

5/2

00

924/0

5/2

00

925/0

5/2

00

926/0

5/2

00

927/0

5/2

00

928/0

5/2

00

929/0

5/2

00

930/0

5/2

00

931/0

5/2

00

901/0

6/2

00

902/0

6/2

00

903/0

6/2

00

904/0

6/2

00

905/0

6/2

00

906/0

6/2

00

907/0

6/2

00

908/0

6/2

00

909/0

6/2

00

910/0

6/2

00

911/0

6/2

00

912/0

6/2

00

913/0

6/2

00

914/0

6/2

00

915/0

6/2

00

916/0

6/2

00

917/0

6/2

00

918/0

6/2

00

919/0

6/2

00

920/0

6/2

00

921/0

6/2

00

922/0

6/2

00

923/0

6/2

00

924/0

6/2

00

925/0

6/2

00

926/0

6/2

00

927/0

6/2

00

928/0

6/2

00

929/0

6/2

00

930/0

6/2

00

9

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2008 2009

Installed Capacity

MSQ

FUEL_TYPE WIND

Sum of Quantity (MW)

Year Month SettleDate

Variable

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2008 2009

MW

h

Total

Interconnector Flows

€80.

63

€84.

18

€167

.98

97.1

1

€91.

24

€136

.86

€80.

04

-€75

.73

€74.

57

-€100

-€50

€0

€50

€100

€150

€200B

io

Co

al

Dis

tl

Gas

Hyd

ro Oil

Pea

t

Pu

mp

Win

d

Fuel Type

SM

P (

€/M

Wh

)

SMP Paid 2008

Average System Marginal Priceby Type in SEM

€80.

63

€84.

18

€167

.98

€97.

11

€91.

24

€136

.86

€80.

04

-€75

.73

€74.

57

€47.

27

€52.

62

€98.

47

€59.

57

€61.

45

€53.

23

€46.

16

-€66

.98

€42.

98

-€100

-€50

€0

€50

€100

€150

€200B

io

Co

al

Dis

tl

Ga

s

Hy

dro Oil

Pe

at

Pu

mp

Win

d

Fuel Type

SM

P (

€/M

Wh

)

SMP Paid 2008

SMP Paid 2009

Average System Marginal Priceby Type in SEM

Production Cost as % of Revenue

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

2008 2009

Year

Pro

du

ctio

n C

ost

as

% o

f R

even

ue

BIOCoalGASHydroOilWind

Average Capacity Priceby Type in SEM

€9.3

5

€7.6

0

€8.4

3

€7.4

7

€6.4

5

€3.0

0

€8.1

8

€8.3

1

€6.3

1

€8.4

1€9.8

3

€9.4

8

€9.4

0

€9.3

0

€14.4

6

€7.8

1

€8.7

6

€9.5

6

€15.3

6

€8.0

6

€-

€2.00

€4.00

€6.00

€8.00

€10.00

€12.00

€14.00

€16.00

€18.00

Type

€ p

er

MW

Pe

r H

ou

r

Average Capacity Price - 2008

Average Capacity Price - 2009

Challenges• Interconnection

– greater levels of interconnection to the island of Ireland from neighbouring power systems

– Evolution of market rules with respect to the integration of interconnection capacity is essential

• Renewable

– Further renewable penetration

– the development of complementary technologies

Conclusions• Market operated successfully for the last two year

• The SMP reduced over the two year period

• Fuel cost are still a significant percentage of SEM costs

• Flow on the interconnector driven by price arbitrage

• Capacity Payment increased as a percentage of SEM

• Developments will be challenging but achievable

Further Details

Thank You

Questions Welcome

For further details on the Single Electricity Market please see:

www.sem-o.com