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06 – 13 February 2009

Reporting Period: 061559hrs – 131559hrs Feb 09

WARNING: This document is originator controlled and intended for the recipient’s eyesonly. The document is not to be forwarded or reproduced without the originator’s authority

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INTRODUCTION 1

This aim of this study to provide weekly snapshots of activity, key dates, threats and significantincidents that impact on the security-operating environment. This document will develop overtime to highlight how trends develop in the various categories of activity.

KEY DATES 2009

DATE EVENT IMPACT

09 Feb 09

Dateline given byPENGASSAN to embark onan industrial action and shutdown crude oil exports from

RVS.

The union is asking the FGN to improve the securitysituation in the oil rich region or face a withdrawal ofmembers from all upstream facilities. This threat comes inthe wake of the killing of an 11-year-old girl and kidnap ofher 8-year-old brother, children of an SPDC employee, byunidentified gunmen. Previous threats by PENGASSANover insecurity were withdrawn after negotiations with theFGN and representatives of oil companies. Such anindustrial action would impact crude oil delivery and couldworsen the economy, as the implementation of the 2009 isdependent on crude oil prices on the international market.

09 Feb – 27April 09

Shell Trial Date in the UnitedStates.

Shell has been taken to court over accusations of complicityin the death of Ken Saro-Wiwa. Although there is nointelligence to suggest this will trigger hostile activity, theactions and movement of his supporters and Ogoni groups,in particular MOSOP will be monitored closely at this time.

11 Feb 09DPR staff threaten industrial

action.

FGN’s engagement of the services of a foreign firm, CobaltServices Nigeria Ltd. to take over the duties played by theDPR has incited the regulatory body and the workersthreaten to shut all crude oil terminals on 11 Feb 09 if theFGN fails to disengage the services of Cobalt. It remains tobe seen if the FGN will acquiesce to these demands. DPRas a regulatory body determines the quantity of crude thatcan be loaded at the country’s terminals. A stop workaction by them would impact highly on the ability ofcompanies to dispense their product effectively.

1A glossary of abbreviations and distribution list are attached at the end of this summary

SINC SIGNIFICANT INCIDENT SUMMARY 040Security Information Network Centre (SINC)

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13 Feb 09 Henry Okah Next Trial Date

Okah’s legal team are asking that the trial of the militantwarlord be moved from Jos, Plateau State to a Court inBayelsa. They base this argument on the fact that majorityof the offences with which Okah is charged occurred in theNiger Delta region, and none occurred in the North wherehe is standing trial. The trial judge has adjourned the caseto enable a review of the request. The state of health ofOkah remains a controversial subject as his team oflawyers argues that he should be allowed to seek medicalattention abroad, whilst the prosecution believes he is fit tostand trial. Any downturn in Okah’s health is likely to impacton operations of oil and gas companies in the Delta as themilitants will seek to carryout attacks to influence hisrelease.

14 Feb 09Dateline given to oil

companies by Ateke Tom tovacate the Niger Delta.

The Niger Delta Vigilante (NDV) and the Patriotic Force(PF) led by Ateke Tom have threatened to cripple oilexploration activities in the Niger Delta region and hasissued a 14 Feb 09 deadline to oil majors operating inNigeria to vacate the region. This threat comes 3 days afterMEND calls off its’ 21 Sep 08 unilaterally declared ceasefire after a week in which a series of attacks were carriedout on oil and gas installations and facilities. Companiesmentioned in the threat issued online by TamunokuroEbitari, spokesman for Ateke include Shell, Agip, Intels,NLNG and ALSCON. Likely targets include isolatedinstallations, pipelines and facilities guarded by GSF. It isassessed if either the GSF or the FGN are unable tointervene and dissuade Ateke from this threat, he willactualize it and the impact on the oil and gas industry islikely to be high as they constitute the primary target of thethreat.

28 Feb 09

Dead line given to SPDC,DTS and FGN by Urhoboindigenes of Ughievwen

Kingdom in Ughelli South LGAto address the allegedmariginalization of the

Kingdom.

The community threaten that if the relevant authorities donot address the alleged marginalization of the Kindom interms of infrastructural development in the 32 towns andvillages that make up the Kndongm they will take their owndestiny into their hands. Ughievwen Kingdom is a hostcommunity to the Utorogun Gas plant. The actualization fothis threat would impact on the supply of gas to major partsof the Country.

09 Mar, 10 and13 Apr 09

Birth of the ProphetMohammed – Maolu Nabiyyi(To be confirmed nearer thedate by FGN), Good Friday

and Easter Monday

These are both Moslem and Christian national holidays tomark the birth of the Prophet Mohammed and the datewhen the Jesus Christ was crucified. It affords nationalsthe opportunity to visit with friends and the long stretch ofholiday may result in a lot of travelling. It is likely to bemarred by petty criminal activities as characterised theChristmas period.

01 May 09 Workers DayThis day is characterised by workers rallies and the tradeunions are likely to make policy statements. It is usuallymarked in a non violent manner.

29 May 09 Democracy Day

This is the yearly anniversary of the successful transitionfrom military rule to civilian rule. This year will be the 10

th

year anniversary and it is assessed that it will be markedwith significant events.

THREAT MATRIX

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This matrix captures all threats, both extant and new. New threats or extant threats that havebeen identified or reported during the reporting period are highlighted in red.

Date Threat Details SINC Comment

12 Feb 09 The Isoko National Youth Movement (INYM) decriesan alleged marginalization of the Isoko ethnicnationality in DTS in both Federal and StateGovernment appointments. The National Presidentof the organisation, Zion Hitler Onaemor has calledon the relevant authorities to redress these wrongspromptly or face untoward responses from the youthranging from acts such as kidnaps to burning downoil installations. He alluded to the 1998 incident inwhich oil flow stations operated by SPDC inOlomoro–Oleh, Oroni (Igbide) Uzere, Ogini andOtor-Owhe were shut down by INYM from 16 Dec1998 to 19 Jan 1999.

It is assessed that the youth group has themotivation to follow through on this threat. Theallusion to the 1998 incident and mentioningthat the youth have the ability to resort tokidnapping and arson is indicative of the slantof the actions to be expected if the threat isactualized. The positions being demanded forinclude federal appointments in the range ofministerial seats, special advisers, specialassistants, inclusions in the hierarchy of theNDDC, DESOPADEC and other public orgovernmental bodies.

11 Feb 09 Media reports disclose the operational details ofplanned evacuation of expatriate personnel fromSPDC field locations in the Niger Delta in adefensive response to Ateke Tom’s threat to unleashOperation Zero Exploration on oil installations in theNiger Delta with effect from 14 Feb 09. Asupposedly reliable source within SPDC’s WesternOperations in Warri is reported to have told mediacorrespondents that the workers serving in the openfields, especially those at the offshore and swamplocations, would be evacuated latest by 13 Feb 09.

Timings and details of movement of personnelshould be kept out of the media, as thepotential exists for adversarial elements toexploit the information when planning attacks.Information security was poor in this case.

11 Feb 09 Henry Okah’s legal team led by Femi Falana haveasked the FGN to direct the Minister of Health toensure Henry Okah is taken abroad for medicaltreatment as a result of a disease that they claim hehas contracted in prison. They allege that there isno medical facility in Nigeria with the capability todiagnose or treat the ailment.

This call is seen as a desperate attempt by thedefence team to ensure their client is releasedfrom prison custody. It is unclear if he willactually be prevailed upon to return to theCountry to continue standing trial for theoffences he is charged with if he is given achance to go abroad for medical attention. It isassessed that the likely of FGN releasing himremain slim, however the possibility of therebeing a breakdown in law and order if healthdegenerates further remains assessed as high.

11 Feb 09 MEND alleges that the Italian Government throughits Foreign Minster, Franco Frattini has made anunsolicited offer of two attack boats to the Nigerianmilitary. MEND further allege that the FGN iswaging an unjust war against the people of the NigerDelta and the offer by the Italian Government at atime when groups such as the Coventry Cathedraland others are working towards the path of dialogue,peace and reconciliation, Italy and Britain areproposing to equip and enable the FGN to keep onwith hostilities is unacceptable. MEND has issued athreat against AGIP and all Italian companiesoperating in the Delta. Media reports indicate thatthe Italian Government is preparing to enter into anMOU with FGN on defense cooperation to cover theareas of training, peacekeeping and arms supply.Specifically, Frattini revealed that the ItalianGovernment is prepared to train policemen posted totroubled areas, invest in agriculture, provide newsecurity technology and also provide a patrol teamfor the ND Region.

Italian companies have in the past refurbishedNAF aircraft. MEND has accused the ItalianGovernment of using the offer of two attackboats as a lever to obtain further suppliescontracts from the FGN. The uproargenerated by offers of military assistance fromthe British Prime Minister in 2008 have resultedin the continued hostage status of 2 Britishcitizens abducted on 09 Sep 08 in an attack ona Hydrodive vessel. It is assessed that MENDhas both the capability and the motivation tocarry out the threat as issued. The possibilityof targeting soft targets is assessed as highand the propensity to hold onto hostages to useas bargaining chips remains assessed as high.

11 Feb 09 The House of Representatives mandates the EFCC The threat of hydrocarbons leaking from the

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& NNPC to evacuate laden vessels impounded bythe JTF as the continued detention of these vesselsin the Nations ports and waterways constitutes anenvironmental hazard as well as a security risk.

impounded vessels due to corrosion and therisk of a fire outbreak in the event of exhangeof fire in the course of any JTF offensive ordefensive operation are assessed as high. Theresultant impact on SPDC facilities is howeverassessed as medium, except in locationswhere such vessels are moored close to SPDCassets in which event the risk is assessed ashigh.

11 Feb 09 MEND rejects directive by IYC to all militants toclose up camp and cease hostilities forthwith.Describes IYC as merely one of several ethnicgroups whilst it (MEND) is a conglomerate of severalethnic groups. Alluding to a supposed superiorstatus, MEND’s spokesman, Jomo Gbomo says theIYC lacks the powers to issue such a directive andappears to be deluded in thinking that a non-combative stance can achieve the necessarychanges in the FGN’s stance. MEND has vowedthat they will build more camps and continue towage armed war against the FGN until Henry Okahis released and “true federalism enthroned”.

The ability of community leaders or ethnicpressure groups such as IYC to curtail theexcesses of criminal and militant groups in theRegion appears to have significantly beencorroded. The traditional communal values,which could have served to curb the incessantcriminal activities, and are vital to an effectivepolicing and enforcement of law and order inthe Region are assessed to be absentpresently. It is assessed that the proliferationof militant camps will continue unabated bycommunal influence.

11 Feb 09 Urhobo youths have recommended that an inlandsecurity committee be set up to guard against areoccurrence of the 07 Feb 09 militant attack onUtorogu Gas Plant.

It is assessed that this drive is meant tocompliment the work of the DTS WaterwaysSecurity Committee. Media reports haveconsistently accused the DTS Government ofmanning the security apparatus with formermilitants and youth activist. Some complaintshave been lodged against this group who havebeen accused of deliberately generating crisisin the State to secure Government’s continuedpatronage. It is assessed that the primarymotivation for the call at this time may bepecuniary. The ability of the group to beaccepted by all parties in the State remainsassessed as medium as the factionalism in thevarious militant camps from which themembers of the committee are drawn will affecttheir ability to be impartial. Other States thathave tried to operate local policing such asAnambra State with the Bakassi Boys saga of1999 through to 2002 and Lagos State withOdua Peoples’ Congress (OPC), which is stillongoing, have not had a huge success rate, asthe propensity for such groups to be hijackedby politicians or criminals remains high.

10 Feb A group of GSF personnel on board 2 Mantra and 2Defender boats deployed to secure 24 bargesseized from petroleum product thieves located on aminor creek in the Chanomi Creek area are attackedby gunmen on board 3 boats. GSF successfullyrepel the attackers. Several hours later, this GSFteam engaged in exchange of fire with friendlyforces deployed from Warri as reinforcement. TwoNaval personnel wounded in the incident.

SINC source revealed that contrary to themedia release that the 24 barges wereintercepted while the JTF Commander, Brig.Gen Rimtip was on patrol of some fieldlocations, the barges had been seized over aperiod and were being held by the GSF in thearea with fire cover from a JTF team from CNLEscravos base. Unconfirmed informationindicates that the 3 speedboats were fromTompolo’s Okerenkoko camp, and theattempted attack may be connected to theseizure of 2 barges by the JTF earlier sameday. It is assessed that the holding areachosen by the GSF may have appearedconfrontational by virtue of its proximity toCamp 5. The heightened state of alertnessengendered by the 3-boat attack and a lack of

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SINC Inforep 182 dated 11 Feb 09 refers.

adequate communication is assessed to be thedriver behind the exchange of friendly fire. It isassessed that in the event the barges arebrought into Forcados Terminal for evacuation,their presence will possibly trigger anescalation of the threat to the facility.Immediate evacuation and removal/destructionof the emptied barges would mitigate thisthreat.

09 and 10Feb 09

A small cargo vessel of about 150 tons has beenobserved in threatening activities with an actualattack recorded on a marine vessel at the BrassTerminal Area offshore Pennington. On 09 Feb, MVAfrica observe the vessel with a speedboat onboardthe aft deck attempt to overtake by increasing herspeed to about 7 knots. On 10 Feb 09, MV Aramiswas attacked by a speedboat. A vessel was noticedin the background during the attack andsubsequently, the same vessel called MV Aramis onVHF Channel 16 pretending to offer assistance andtried to overtake the MV Aramis with speeds ofabout 11knots.

It is assessed that the marine vessel is amother ship for pirates operating in theBrass/Pennington area. Its’ presence explainsthe ability of the militants to move furtheroffshore to carryout attacks. The propensity forvessels to be deceived by the mother vessels’offer of help after an attempted attack isassessed to be medium though. The likelihoodof more frequent attacks being launched furtheroffshore is assessed to be high.

09 Feb 09 The Total Zonal Branch of PENGASSAN wentahead with a three day warning strike over the stateof insecurity in the Niger Delta. However, theNational arm of PENGASSAN has entered intonegotiations with FGN and has called for a hold onthe industrial actions. The unions have now agreedto give the FGN a three week period within which tothe issued raised will be looked at.

It is assessed that the action of the Totalbranch of the union is indicative of the dividebetween the National and Zonal branches. Thelarge number of Total personnel who havebeen victims of abductions recently particularlyaggrieves the Total branch and may beresponsible for the three-day industrial action.It is assessed that a successful industrial actionfrom the National body may not be carried outas earlier scheduled, however the potential oflocal branches toeing the lines of Total branchis likely. The impact on the industry isassessed to be relatively low if the nationalchapter does not join in the industrial action.However, if at the end of the three week periodof deferment given, FGN is seen not to beactively pursuing a viable solution to theinsecurity in the Region, the likely of an all outaction by the unions is assessed to be high.The impact of such an industrial action onexploration and production activities isassessed to be high.

09 Feb 09 Governor Amaechi discloses that the RVSHA isconsidering a Bill that will make the crime ofkidnapping a capital offence punishable with thedeath sentence. Revealed that the withdrawal ofarmed GSF checkpoints from the road was basedon the erroneous impression that the hold up beinggenerated could be mitigated by removal ofcheckpoints and the decision was made based on aseeming reduction in incidents of kidnaps at the endof 2008.

The Nigerian Bar Association has cautionedGovernor Amaechi against making kidnappinga capital offence and portends that rather thandeter the abductors, it would rather harden theirhearts and make the crime much more prone toviolence. It is assessed that the stance of theNBA may be tenable as the incidents of armedrobbery in the country increased and got moreviolent despite the enactment of more stringentlaws particularly execution by fireing squad.The attendant likely of abductees being at riskof losing their lives is assessed to be high if thecriminals throw all caution to the wind in theface of a death sentence being the inevitableconsequences of their actions.

09 Feb 09 MOSOP says they are poised to resist attempts bythe FGN to re-negotiate the re-entry of SPDC to oilfacilities in Ogoni land. Decries the alleged newaccord between the FGN and Shell, which it says is

It is assessed that though MOSOP’s threat isqualified as non-violent, the propensity forcommunal agitations to turn violent is high.The resultant damage to reputation is assessed

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based on compromise, which casts doubts on FGN’ssincerity in resolving the Ogoni crisis amicably.

as high.

07 Feb 09 At about 0415 hours, a group of approximately 40-armed youth attacked the Utorogu FLB and GasPlant. Property were vandalised, but the JTFsuccessfully repelled the attack. Six of the invaderswere killed and several arrests have been made.MEND claimed that the invasion was carried out byits fighters and warned that many more attackswould still be carried out. MEND taunted that thelocation was chosen to dispel the alleged myth beingclaimed by the DTS Governor that there is peaceand security in the State and is a message to oilcompanies that all the pipelines recently repaired inthe Western Delta will soon be damaged.

It is assessed that MEND is claiming the attackas part of its threatened HurricaneObama/Operation Delete/Operation ZeroExploration, but may not have been the actualmastermind behind the planning or the attack.Indicators tend to support the attack was acommunity affair.

03 Feb 09 JTF has warned Ateke Tom of deadly repercussionsif he actualises his threat to commence attacks onoil companies and facilities with effect from 14 Feb09. JTF seeks to assure oil companies and law-abiding citizens that there is “no cause for securityalarm”, adding that its troops were on stand by torepel any attack.

The GSF seek to assure that the militants areno match for the task force’s troops, however, itis assessed that the collateral damageoccasioned in the Sep 08 attacks by militantson oil facilities and installation if repeated couldimpact negatively on oil exploration andproduction activities in the region.

03 Feb 09 Ateke Tom, leader of the Niger Delta Vigilante (NDV)and the Patriotic Force has threatened to cripple oilexploration activities in the Niger Delta Region. Heissued a 14 Feb 09 deadline to oil majors andmultinationals operating in Nigeria to vacate theRegion. The militant warlord speaking throughTamunokuro Ebitari said the operation to be knownas ‘Operation Zero Exploration’ is a direct result ofthe alleged 03 Jan JTF attack on Ateke’s camp, andwill target Shell, Agip, Intels, NLNG and ALSCON,which are accused of supporting and aiding themilitary to carry out the attacks on militant camps inthe region. He accused the FGN of failing to adopt adialogue approach to resolving the ND crisis,

Ateke’s statement is indicative of intent totarget facilities and not personnel of oilcompanies. Further reporting claims that Atekecaptured a JTF gunboat in the incident.Though JTF has denied such, it is assessedthat if true, the gunboat could be used as aTrojan horse to gain close proximity to targetsby the militants. It is assessed that the choiceof 14 Feb 09 is a deliberate attempt atlaunching this attack on a significant date. In2008, Ateke launched a series of attacks inPHC on 01 Jan 08, new year’s day. The JTFhas denied launching an attack on Ateke’scamp. They claim rather to have been on acrew change when they were ambushed bymilitants who fired at them from thesurrounding mangrove forest. JTF claims thesoldiers responded in self defence and mayhave injured/killed some militants in theprocess. On 30 Jan 09, MEND called off its’ceasefire, claiming JTF undertook a massiveaerial and waterborne attack on several campsand the camp of Ateke, who is a signatory tothe MEND unilateral ceasefire of 21 Sep 09,was the most heavily impacted. Despite JTF’sdenials, a SINC source insists that there wereplans underway by the GSF to carryout raidsand in the usual fashion of such plans beingleaked to the militant camps, Ateke may havebeen aware of a planned attack and launchedthe ambush. It is assessed that JTF may bemanaging information hence the denials of theattack being planned and of a gunboat beingseized by Ateke.

02 Feb 09 A coalition of militants comprising elements fromRueben Wilson and Boylof’s camps have concludedplans to attack the NAOC location at Ogboninbiribetween 03 – 08 Feb 09. Commander Pius (FNU)from Egbema – Angalabiri, Southern Ijaw LGA hasbeen designated as leader of the team. Piusreportedly boasted that during the planned attack,

Boylof is the MEND commander in BYS andhas gained a formidable reputation followingthe 19 Jun 08 attack on Bonga field. He isbelieved to command a large number ofmilitants who have access to well maintainedand powerful arms and equipment. Though notmuch is known of Reuben Wilson, SINC

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the militants would subdue all JTF personnelstationed at the location.

SINC EWRep 118 dated 03 Feb 09 refers.

records indict that he may be the militantknown as Pastor Rueben who has beenimplicated in several attacks. It is assessedthat this threat forms a part of MEND’sthreatened “Hurricane Obama/OperationDelete/Operation Zero Exploration”. Thepotential of the parties mentioned to carry outthe threat is assessed as high. The collateraldamage to SPDC facilities from anactualization of this threat is assessed as lowas there are no SPDC assests in the immediatevicinity, however, the impact of the entirecampaign on SPDC facilities is assessed ashigh as the operations are targeted at all oilcompanies and multinational organizationswhich engage the services of GSF to protecttheir facilities.

01 Feb 09 Sunny Opuambe, the leader of the Bush Boy militantgroup is assassinated at a drinking spot alongAbuloma in PHC. The Bush Boys is a factionalwarring youth group in the Wakirike Kingdom of RVSthat has held sway in Okirika. The group is theyouth wing of the Tobonuju, a group that waschased out of Okirika by Ateke Tom’s Niger DeltaVigilante Group (NDVG). Further on 04 Feb, Agili(FNU) another militant who had been a member ofBush Boys but cross carpeted to Ateke Tom’s campwas also assassinated. Earlier on 30 Jan 09,Theophilus Tador aka G1, the leader of theGreenlanders is shot dead by JTF when a Navalgunboat encounters a group of militants on aspeedboat on the New Calabar River in an incidentwhich Ateke Tom claims was an attack on his camp.

Some time in 2006, there had been rival cultwars between the Greenlanders (Ateke’sgroup) and the Bush Boys. Bush Boys laiddown their arms when it was obvious that thefirepower of the Ateke camp was superior andboth groups entered into a peace accord.Sunny Opuama has been reputed to be aGovernment agent as he related well with RVSGovernment. There had been contest for theposition of Niger Delta Youth Leader and acredible SINC source reports that Sunny wasslated to be inaugurated as the Youth Leaderon 05 Feb 09. He was assassinated 4 daysearlier. Source reports that Ateke has beeninterested in the role of Youth Leader and sawSunny as both a threat to his operations byvirtue of the Government relations and as toosmall to hold the title. On the other hand,source revealed that Agili was not assassinatedby Bush Boys, but rather by the Greenlanders(Ateke’s Boys). This is allegedly becauseAteke feels that Agili’s loyalties to the BushBoys may be a factor to reackon with followingthe murder of Sunny. Though Agili constantlyswore he had left the Bush Boys behind, Atekeis reported to have remained uncomfortablewith his presence in the camp. Both of theseassassinations on the behest of Ateke Tom areassessed to be a fallout from the 30 Jan 09JTF operation in which the leader of theGreenlanders, Tador was killed. It is assessedthat Ateke’s order of a hit on Sunny and Agilimay be predicated on his suspicions that theJTF were given details of his camp location byeither of the two. The potential of a full scalecult war escalating out of these killings remainsassessed as high. The fallout of such a crisis itis assessed would impact negatively on themovement of personnel to and from work asevidenced by the cult wars that ravaged PHC inAug 2007. it is assessed that the driver behindthese crisis remains a supremacy battle forcontrol of Okirika by the rival cult/militantgroups.

30 Jan 09 Commander Ogunbos, militant leader who has beenengaged in a supremacy war with Commander

It is assessed that though the relocation wasstampeded to avoid a planned attack from

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Africa, has relocated from his Diebu Creek camp toEtebu Creek in Ogbia LGA. In the course of therelocation, one of his speed boats reportedly collidedwith a commercial boat leaving one pax dead.

Africa’s camp, the possibility of Africa going upto Etebu Creek to carryout any planned attackremains high. In the event that such a reprisalattack is carried out, it is assessed that thecollateral damage to any SPDC facility is lowas the facility nearest to Etebu Creek is KoloCreek and it is a considerable distance away.

03 Jan 09 Reports indicate that Chief James Jephthah hasbeen cultivating the cooperation of Charles Kurobo,a militant who has threatened to disrupt the pipe-laying project being undertaken by Saipem in Apoi.The chief has allegedly sent a cash sum ofN300,000.00 and some food items to Kurobo’s campand has also hired a speedboat from Kurobo for thesum of N300,000.00 monthly rentals. The youth ofthe community have however risen up in protest toKurobo benefiting in such a manner. They havealso threatened to disrupt the pipelaying workthemselves if Dhief’s contract with Kurobo is notterminated.

It is assessed that the situation has thepotential of degenerating into a crisis that couldimpact negatively on the Saipem pipe layingproject, as the community youth have thepotential to disrupt the project. The monetaryconsiderations being given by Chief to Kurobomay appear large to the youth who themselvesare not on the receiving end of such largesse.

30 Jan 09 MEND calls off its unilaterally declared cease-fireclaiming that the Nigerian armed forces carried outan unprovoked attack on Ateke Tom’s camp at1130hrs date. MEND alleges that though there wasa massive aerial and marine assault, the militantssuccessfully repelled the military. They allege thatthis attack is an indication that the FGN hasconsistently taken advantage of the ceasefire tomake military inroads by arresting and killingmilitants instead of pursuing a genuine peace andreconciliation agenda. Consequently, MEND warnsthat the oil industry should brace itself for HurricaneObama, ‘a sweeping assault starting from Riversstate that will change the face of oil and gas exportsfrom Nigeria’ The JTF have denied attacking anycamp and allege that the only incident that involveda JTF/Militant encounter was an attack on JTFstationed at Cawthorne Channel. SINC Sourcesindicated that the clash occurred as a result ofmilitant suspicions that routine JTF roulement oftroops in field locations was actually an attempt tobuild up forces for an attack on Ateke’s camps in theAlakiri-Dawes Island axis. It is reported that themilitants ambushed troops who were moving torelieve colleagues at a field location. Latestinformation reveals that Ateke Tom’s group hassuccessfully seized a JTF gunboat.

This is not the first time in the last couple ofweeks the MEND has called off the ceasefire.However, it is assessed that this may be agenuine call as there have been repeatedthreats that if any camp of any militant warlordis attacked by the JTF, there will be reprisalattacks. It is assessed that there will be easein the manner of coalitions that will be formedby the various factions of militants to fight aperceived common enemy. There have beenreports of mass trainings of youth in militantcamps in Ondo and other areas. It is assessedthat the sightings of Victor Ben Ebikabowei inFarah’s camp in Buguma on 18 Jan 09 and thesighting on 30 Jan 09 in Cawthorne Channelaxis are both indicative of the alignments thatmay emerge in this new militant offensive. It isassessed that there may in fact have been noJTF attack on Ateke’s camp. Source reportindicates that the JTF/Militant encounter atCawthorne channel was with boys from theAteke camp. This may have been viewed bythe militants as an ideal opportunity to engagein reprisal attacks for which they have beenstrategizing and preparing for some time now.It is assessed that the Militants may havegauged the strength of the military and decidedthat they will only gain strength henceforth,hence the urgency to mount a new campaign.

30 Jan 09 Victor Ben Ebikabowei aka Boylof is sighted in theCawthorne Channel area.

It is assessed that the threat posed byrealignments in the militant strata is beingplayed out by these frequent sightings of theacclaimed leader of the BYS faction of MENDin the volatile and JTF patrolled region of RVS.Indicators are that a major MEND/Militantattack is in the offing and the major targets areassessed to be oil and gas industry facilities,workers particularly expatriate, and GSF unitsin isolated locations.

24 Jan 09 Media reports reveal that MEND has threatenedGSF with ‘Operation Delete’. They threaten to erasenames of soldiers from the armed forces register by

It is assessed that soldiers deployed to isolatedoil and gas installations in the creeks maycome under attack in line with this MEND

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killing them off in random covert attacks. threat. The creeks have been identified as thenatural habitat of the militants. It is assessedthat the advantage lies with the militants asthey know the terrain and can launch predawnattacks at moments of least resistance.

23 Jan 09 MOSOP warns that the attempt by SPDC to cleanup polluted sites at Kegbara Dere in Ogoniland maylead to fresh crisis in the area. They allege thatSPDC officials, contractors and heavily armedsecurity operatives stormed a spill site on 20 Jan 09and this is provocative, as the FGN has directed thateffective 31 December 08, SPDC operations in thearea cease.

It is assessed that MOSOP is attempting to stirup sentiments as they have alleged severallythat SPDC has failed to clean up spill, evenwhen such attempts to clean up are made andrebuffed by the community. The media war islikely to continue.

21 Jan 09 The Urhobo Volunteer Force (UVF), a previouslyunknown militant group has emerged. They warnUrhobo politicians and elders to change their allegeddubious ways of selling out or face the wrath of thegroup.

Age long rivalries in DTS particularly and in theND in general are assessed as the principaldrivers behind this new group’s birth. TheItsekiris and Ijaws have already establishedmilitant groups that have held sway in theregion. The adoption of militancy amongst thevarious groups in the Delta may increasehostilities among the tribes as the gangs seekto protect their interest. It is assessed thatother tribes such as the Isoko, the Kwale andthe Ika-Igbos may not be far behind in theemerging trend.

21 Jan 09 There is a threat of escalating tensions betweencommunities in Zarama. Akumoni community havethreatened to attack the Ayamabele and Kabalacommunities on 21 Jan 09.

The reason for this community disruptionremains unclear, however efforts are reportedlyunderway to resolve the issues. Thecommunities are located in the vicinity of theZarama Community, one of the three maincommunity clusters hosting the Gbaran UbieIntegrated Oil and Gas Project (GUIOGP).Though SPDC is not directly threatened, it isassessed that operations at the project sitecould be disrupted by a sever community clashin the region.

18 Jan 09 Victor Ben Ebikabowei (aka Boylof) was sighted at acamp run by Farah Dagogo in Buguma, RVS. Up to10 militant speedboats were also seen near themouth of the New Calabar River.

These boats are assessed to be thosepreviously reported as having transited fromBoylof’s camp at Ezetu. It is assessed thatthese sightings may be indicative of the questby the militant groups in the Region to engagein renewed and coordinated campaign whichcould be linked to the threatened OperationHurricane Obama with a commencementdateline of 20 Jan 09 or soon thereafter. Thepresence of a key BYS based militant elementin RVS is assessed to be indicative of asignificant shift in the relationship dynamicsbetween the key militant leaders in the Region.It is assessed that Boylof may be meeting withother militants possibly to plan the actualisationof the reprisal attacks which MEND threatenedas revenge for the recent killing and arrest ofcore MEND commanders in RVS.

17 Jan 09 Media reports indicate that rival factions of criminalgangs masquerading as political youth groups inNembe community have been embroiled in a bitterconflict over local government council elections andoil money is alleged to be at the root of the crisis.Over 13 people have been killed in the crisis in thelast six months as the struggle to highjack the petro-dollars the council gets from oil companies rages.The State Governor, Timipre Sylva who described

Observers believe a jostle for relevance afterthe tenure of the female caretaker chairmenmay have led to the fresh outbreak of violencein the LGA. The tensions however are datedas far back as 2002. Militant warlord AbrahamAwokegha aka Okitikata has been engaged inan ongoing supremacy turf battle with militantsloyal to Victor Ben Ebikabowei (Boylof). It isassessed that although Okitikata is unlikely to

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the situation as ‘a show of shame’ has intervenedand set up a peace forum headed by the traditionalruler of the Nembe, HRH Amanayabo Ralph Iwowariafter the crisis degenerated over the New Year. TheState Government has also appointed femalecaretaker committee chairmen for all the councilsand has postponed the elections indefinitely. Thepeace forum took a two week adjournment to allowthe feuding factions prepare memoranda on thecrisis, and reconvened on 21 Jan 09.

SINC InfoReps Ser 088 and 089 both dated 07Apr 08 refer.

be able to square up to Boylof on an equallevel, the possibilities of other militant leadersconniving with Okitikata against Boylof cannotbe ruled out. Such an alliance it is assessedwill lead to reprisal attacks. It is assessed thatthough the conflict in Nembe is not directed atSPDC, inter militant or political or communalfighting in the region has the potential ofimpacting negatively on operations.

16, 17 & 18Jan 09

JTF elements attack and destroy militant campslocated at Ajakaja, Udungama and Okukpor inAndoni LGA (SG BC 026) of RVS. JTF said theattacks were based on intelligence reports whichindicated that one of the militant leaders in the area,George Adumu, an ally of Soboma George involvedin kidnappings, sea piracy, armed robbery and otherhostile acts was in the area. At the time Adumu’scamp was raided, JTF claims it was deserted, andreports indicate that the militants may have had foreknowledge of the operation and had fled to Okukpor.MEND claims that the JTF attack was based onfaulty intelligence in search of two British hostagesstill held in captivity by MEND as political prisonersand alleges that numerous civilians were killed.According to MEND, the hostages have now beenseparated and moved further into the swamps toprevent a successful rescue operation.

SINC Inforep 175 dated 18 Jan 09, EWReps 141,142 & 143 refer.

MEND’s statement is indicative of the robustanti-government and anti-JTF propagandacampaign expected to continue as the militantbody seeks a means to retaliate against theGSF operations that have resulted in the deathof 3 militant commanders and the arrest of 2others in the last month. It is assessed thatmilitants may resume targeting of strategic oilfacilities and key Government installations inline with the threat traffic recently. It is unlikelyhowever that the JTF will cease theiroperations as the recent change in seniormilitary appointments is also indicative of thehigher echelons’ intentions to maintain a robuststance against militancy. The accuracy ofrecent information available to JTF is indicativeof the willingness of communities to cooperatewith the GSF through provision of high gradeintelligence with the aim of eradicating themenace of criminality which is now impactingnegatively not only oil and gas companies, butalso on the communities.

17 Jan 09 Navy declares fresh war on militants. Acquires 4Mantra, 7 Seaward defence boats and 2 AugustaHelicopters to boost operations in the Niger Delta.The 4 Mantra class seaward defence boats are 17metres in length, can run 50 knots and carry a crewof up to 13 heavily armed combat personnel. Thesewill be deployed in the region covering Bonny toEscravos, while the other seven seaward defenceboats are deployed to PHC to cover RVS, BYS andLagos.

It is assessed that recent efforts by men of theNavy to curtail illegal bunkering, kidnapping,piracy and hostage taking in the ND Region willbe enhanced by the newly acquired anddeployed equipment.

13 & 14 Jan09

The JTF in a raid at Bakana, arrest TubotamunoAngolia (aka Boy Titi, Boy Chiki, Point One), anotorious militant aligned to Farah Dagogo’s militantgroup. He was shot dead by the JTF when he triedto escape their lawful custody. In addition, on 14Jan, JTF arrested Barikpoa Nwinam (aka Ecomog orLekara Baridon), a protégée of and close ally ofAteke Tom. He was arrested in the company ofCliffor Kpamana, an employee of ReynoldConstruction Company (RCC) and Dadum Abanefrom Kaani community. MEND responded to thefresh onslaught on the militants by calling off the selfdeclared cease fire of Sept 08. MEND has vowed tolaunch an attack on operatives of the JTF, statingthat every soldier in uniform inside the ND Region isa fair target in reprisal attacks.

It is assessed that MEND’s threats are likely tobe executed by smaller criminal elementsaffiliated to it. JTF intelligence reports haveconfirmed that MEND intends to to attack oiland gas installations, engage in kidnapping ofoil workers and some key government andsecurity officials in the ND by way of reprisals.The JTF’s response to the threat includesadopting precautionary measures by deployingadditional troups in the coastal areas of the NDis assessed as a good move as the presenceof more GSF may be serve as a deterrent sosome of the criminal elements. It is assessedthat this recent upsurge in raids by JTF whichhas resulted in arrests of several prominentmilitants makes the likelyhood of further militantoffensives more imminent.

13 Jan 09 A reliable source disclosed that tension is high It is assessed that the JTF may be planning to

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among militants loyal to Government Ekpomoupolo(Tompolo) over rumours of a planned JTF offensiveto destroy Camp 5 in Okerenkoko area ofGbaramatu Kingdom, Warri South West LHA, DTS.MEND in BYS led by Boylof have indicated areadiness to engage JTF if any form of aggression isdisplayed towards Tompolo. Militants accuseGoodluck Jonathan, Vice President of failing toinform them of the plans and declared that anyattack on Camp 5 will foreclose all forms ofnegotiations and understanding in the ND region.

destroy as many camps as possible in anattempt to flush out the militants and Camp 5may be one of the earmarked camps. Camp 5is assessed to be a main militant strongholdacting as more of an HQ location. However,this is not the first time the militants are allegingsuch a plan. It is assessed that militants areadequately equiped with manpower and armsto carry out their threats of defensive/reprisalattacks. Reports indicate that Tompolo hadearlier decentralized his weapons, ammunitionand manpower to neighbouring camps andother safe hideouts away from Camp 5. It isassessed that in the event of an attack onCamp 5 by JTF, the damage to Tompolo maybe limited, however, the reprisal attacks maystretch the ability of JTF severely.

12 Jan 09 MEND has released pictures of two British nationalsabducted from the Hydro Dive vessel on 09 Sep 08.The two, Messrs. Robin Barry Hughes and MatthewHohn Maguire are being held by MEND to arm twistthe FGN to release MEND’s presumed leader, HenryOkah who is standing secret trial for gun-runningand treason. MEND warns that their policy onkidnapping high value oil workers from WesternEurope and North America remains unchanged andwill continue to form an integral part of the pressurestrategy for 2009.

MEND has been holding these two hostages asleverage and now warns that if anythinghappens to Henry Okah who is reported inmedia to be gravely ill from a kidney condition,the fate of the two hostages may beunpleasant. It is assessed that the trend ofholding unto kidnapped victims as hostagesmay be adopted more randomly by MEND todrive home it’s message to the FGN and theinternational community. The attendant risk tothe health of captives is huge as being kept inthe unsanitary conditions that prevail in themilitant camps could have an adverse effect onthe health and mental stability of the hostages.It is assessed that British citizens would standmost at risk of this trend of hostage taking notfor pecuniary reward but to serve as bargainingchips. The willingness of FGN to dialogue withthe militants is assessed as remote, with a riskof prolonged captivity for the hostages.

10 Jan 09 Militants made an attempt to attack the CLP atBonny. Four speedboats filled with several heavilyarmed men took part in the attack. The NigerianNaval Personnel successfully repelled the attack.Though gunfire was exchanged, no casualties wererecorded.

Bonny remains a strategic target for militantshoping to disrupt oil & gas operations in theNiger Delta. The convergence of key militantsin Adoni/Opobo axis close to Bonny lately is alikely pointer to this renewed determination bymilitants to target Bonny in a concerted effort tocripple the oil and gas sector as part of theirwar against the JTF. Presently, the key playersin the axis are reported to be Ateke Tom,Soboma George and Benard (FNU). Anothernewly emerging militantis Busta Rhymes, whorecently broke away from Farah is alsoreported to be behind a series of recent pirateattacks in the axis. Investigations are ongoingto determine the relationship between BustaRhymes and Benard, as speculations are rifethat they are one and the same man. Benardis known to be in alliance with Ateke Tom andSoboma. The Okoloma Ikpangi, is anothermilitant group that plays a dominant role in thisparticular axis. This group is reported to alsohave ties with all the charactersaforementioned. Unconfirmed informationindicates that Ateke Tom and Soboma Georgeappear to be directing affairs in the whole areaat the moment.

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10 Jan 09 The Urhobo people of Ughievwen Kingdom inUghelli South LGA of DTS have given SPDC, theFederal Government and DTS up to 28 Feb 09 toaddress the alleged marginalization of the Kingdomin terms of infrastructural development in the 32towns and villages that make up the Kingdom. Theyhave threatened to take their destiny into their ownhands if their issues are not resolved in their favour.Ughievwen Kingdom is a host community to theUtorogun Gas plant that supplies gas to major partsof the Country.

It is assessed that this threat is coming basedon the knowledge the community has of theimportance of the Utorogu Gas Plant to theNation. The possibility of rogue elementshijacking the situation to perpetrate acts ofcriminality cannot be ruled out.

09 Jan 09 The JTF have claimed that they have still not beenfully paid for the provision of security services for theBNAG well testing exercise during the end of 2008.

It is likely that the JTF will be unlikely toundertake any other security serviceengagements during 2009, until completepayment has been made. The potential forvulnerabilities to emerge as result of a poorlypaid and unmotivated JTF is extremely Highand the refusal to provide security whereurgently required could expose SPDC’s assetssignificantly. It is assessed that militants,criminals and aggrieved community membersare currently seeking to identify gaps in thesecurity posture in order to achieve their ownpersonal agendas.

08 Jan 09 The following threat warning (as received) was sentto Corporate Security.

(1) Give ur policemen @ ur company gate bombdetectors to check cars coming into ur companybecause a car is planned to explode in ur company.

(2) And some of my boys that escort people to oneof your pipe @ Rukpokwu last nite said fire willcatch there soon.

This warning is unedited and from a highlydependable source. Every car entering any ofthe SPDC locations in PH from tomorrow is tobe scanned and checked. The alert level is tobe raised and car parks to be swept and patrolsintensified. In the absence of corroboration, thisthreat is assessed to be credible andprecautionary measures should be strictlyenforced. The previous VBIED attack againstthe RA also received a short notice warning. Asingle, reliable SINC source reported in late2008 that foreign (white) trainers were then inBayelsa state to deliver training in theconstruction, deployment and initiation ofImprovised Explosive Devices (SINC EWRep100 dated 18 November refers). The trainingwas reportedly being delivered to Ateke Tomand Sogboma George groups as well as to agroup led by one Bernard (NFDK) at Ateke'sOpuama Camp.

29 Dec 08On December 29, a letter was received from threecommunities namely the Iwhrekan, Otujeremi andOtor –Udu communities (SG – AK-036) under theumbrella of Federation of Host Communitiesdemanding for an indigenous contractor to handlethe catering and the house keeping job at UtoroguFLB. They have threatened to shutdown the gasplant if their request is not granted by 31 Dec 2008.

Security operatives have been placed on highalert to forestall any shutdown while the CROhas scheduled a meeting for Monday, January05, 2009 with the community executives.

28 Dec 08 SINC sources reported that at approximately2025hrs on 28 Dec 2008, a notorious militantleader, by the name of Sobomabo JACKREE a.k.a.Egberipapa was arrested in Buguma Asari ToruLGA of Rivers State by JTF troops of Sector 5, aspart of Operation Flush Out 3. He was arrested inthe presence of some notable Buguma Chiefsduring a purported peace meeting, which heattended with Alhaji Asari Dokubo. Egberipapa wasnot injured.

Egberipapa is a known crude oil andcondensate thief, charged with runningoperations along the Soku-Abonema axis. Inaddition, he masterminded and led thekidnapping of Chief Lulu Briggs wife at herresidence on 06 Feb 2008. This incident willundoubtedly provoke high-level political talksand manoeuvrings in an attempt to work out apossible solution to the situation. There hasbeen a serious and widespread reaction across

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SINC EW Report – 109, dated 30 Dec refers.militant networks, in response to Egberipapa’sarrest. On 30 Dec 08, MEND furtherannounced that it will conduct an “ all out war”against was it describes a display ofgovernment insincerity over its promises toresolve the issues that have led to the NigerDelta crisis peacefully. On 31 Dec 08, credibleSPDC sources that militants have threatened a‘massive’ attack against oil and gasinstallations in the Niger Delta within the nexttwo weeks in retaliation against the arrest. Thisthreat is deemed credible and centres on theallegation that the NFG have failed to keeptheir promise following the end of the MENDceasefire, which ended on 21 Dec 08.Members of the pipelines department have alsoreceived threatening sms’ messages from anunknown number, warning of a likely intentionto cause destruction to SPDC assets. Thesituation requires close monitoring.

20 Dec 08 Six militants associated with the Soboma Georgearrived Lagos on route to the Republic of Togo topurchase arms and ammunition.

Large scale bank robberies, especially thoseaccessible by water, have been reported oflate. Banks opening after the Christmas periodare assessed to be vulnerable. Theproliferation of arms, ammunition and traininghas been widely reported to be undertaken bya number of key militant leaders, includingBoyloaf and Government Ekpemupolo. Thistype of activity could indicate a precursor tofuture militant activity and caution is thereforeadvised.

18 Dec 08 Reporting indicates that the relationship betweenAteke and Soboma George has become tensefollowing last weeks’ arrest of three females and aboat driver from Ateke Toms’ camp by operatives ofthe JTF. Ateke has claimed that the only personwho had and could have given out information of themovement of the ladies was Soboma. Ateke hasvowed to deal decisively with Soboma.

Credible SINC sources indicate that there islikely to be a clash between Ateke and Sobomain the near future. It is assessed from availableinformation that Soboma has made enemies ofthe key and influential militant leaders.Soboma and Farah are currently atloggerheads, which has forced Soboma tocarve allegiance to Ateke. This recent impassemay lead to a new wave of cult wars, as newterritories may need to be delineated bySoboma’s supporters.

13 Dec 08 MEND has demanded conditions for talks with theFGN on disarmament as recommended by the NigerDelta Technical Committee (NTDC). The crux of thedemands are that Henry Okah must be released tolead the negotiations. Reiterates that MEND willonly cooperate if United Nations mediators areinvolved in the negotiations. Vows to resists allattempts at dismantling militant camps in the regioneven if the JTF is made to withdraw from the region.They are rejecting all suggestions that the FGNshould rehabilitate the militants insisting rather thatthe JTF needs the rehabilitation and militants shouldbe employed by Govt to assist in developing a coastand creek guard force.

It is assessed that the statements of MEND areindicative of a resolve to enter into negotiationswith numerous preconditions that may hamperthe ability of both the FGN and the Militants toreach an amicable decision.

10 Dec 08 Tompolo has commenced the training of between400 -1000 newly recruited supporters at ArugboCamp in Ondo State. This training is reportedly inpreparation to resume attacks on oil and gasinstallations in the early part of 2009. 13commanders in Tompolo’s camp are conducting thetraining under the leadership of Mosco Jonny of

It is assessed that the militants are activelypreparing for a possible resumption of attacksin the new year. The use of a training groundoutside DTS is assessed to be an attempt toavoid the tight control the JTF has imposed onDTS. There is significant support frompetroleum product thieves for the training and

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Camp 5, Tebela (FNU) of Iroko Camp, Ebi Ikoro ofOwongbene Camp, Jacob Odili & Commander Biboaka Shoot at Sight of Arugbo Camp. Lt.-Col. RabeAbubakar, said that the training was being funded byoil thieves, who are angered by the military'sstepped up campaign to stop oil bunkering. He saidthe new recruits were being trained "in long rangeshooting, handling of various sophisticated weaponsand the use of explosives.”

planned hostilities. Tompolo wieldstremendous influence over DTS militantactivities as well as the trade in stolenpetroleum products. The hard line stanceadopted by the JTF is not favourable to hisactivities and from all indications; he ispreparing to take decisive and violent actionagainst the JTF. Community inhabitants havedenied these allegations and have demandedproof of such activity. Failure to provide thiscould result in tensions and anti-militarytensions.

03 Dec 08 Intelligence reports at the disposal of GSAcorroborated by confessional statements made by agroup of militants recently arrested in the regionindicate that militants have started rebuilding campsdestroyed by the JTF, recruiting new gang membersand acquiring more weapons for a renewedcampaign against GSF and Oil & Gas companies inthe Delta. Defence Headquarters has ordered thatJTF Commanders in the Delta should tightensecurity.

It is assessed that the majority of threats issuedhave been by aggrieved oil thieves and theirmilitant collaborators due to JTF continuedclampdown on their activities.

26 Nov 08 Ateke Tom has been observed in activities thatindicate continuation of guerrilla-style attacks andother disruptive activities. He has been engaged inrecruitment of new fighters from DTS & BYS,purchase of arms and military uniforms and constantsurveillance on Naval Gunboat movements. Thegroup has further purchased Toyota Hilux jeeps toaid movement within PHC with the intent ofappearing to be escort teams for expat movementas a cover. Possible routes for the militantmovement include Ndoki, Abuloma, Abonema,Eagle Island waterfronts, Saipem Yard, NAFCONGas station, Ikpokiri, Iwofe & Njemanze watersides.He has threatened to attack key and vulnerableplaces within PHC starting from 08 Dec 08.

The upward swing in militant attacks on GSFwhich are aimed at mopping up weapons, andthe number of incidents in which arms andammunition have been seized by GSFindicates plans by militants to engagein/continue to perpetuate disruptive activities. Itis assessed that Ateke Tom has the capabilityand willingness to engage in acts oflawlessness which could impact negativelyboth on SPDC personnel and facilities. The 31Dec 07 series of attacks on Presidential HotelPHC and Borokiri Police Station are indicatorsof the level of damage Ateke can inflict.

24 Nov 08 Inter communal crisis looms in DTS as the Urhobosand Itsekiris are at loggerheads over allegationslevelled by Itsekiris from Obontie community againstUrhobos from Ugbukurusu and Ikersan communitiesthat the latter are conducting kidnappings andmilitancy. Obontie community is said to haveprotested to the JTF who engineered the signing ofan MOU. But this MOU was allegedly breached in2006 when armed men from the Urhobocommunities invaded Obontie with sophisticatedweapons, burning and carting away food items. TheObontie community has issued a two-weekultimatum to the aggressors to produce a Mr.Ejueyitsi Eyito who was allegedly kidnapped andshot dead on 12 Jan 07

Between 1999 and 2001, there was intensivecommunity unrest in DTS involving severaltribes. The issues in contention centred rounddelineation of the boundaries of the Warri LGA.The hostilities of the period impacted negativelyon SPDC operations in the area, as there wasan absolute break down of law and order. It isassessed that if this problem is allowed todegenerate further, SPDC personnel andfacilities stand at risk of collateral damage.

20 Nov 08 JTF reportedly attacked Boylof’s camp at Ezetu.(NFD) Militants claim to have shot a helicopter anddamaged it. (Remains TBC). Boylof is reported tohave survived the attack. Separate reports indicateBoylof’s juju priest was shot dead by JTF. Whilst intransit to bury the priest on 21 Nov 08, there was ashoot out between JTF and Boylof’s gang at Lobia,Southern Ijaw, BYS.

Whilst there has been no specific threatreporting to confirm, these two incidents, it ishighly likely they will have angered Boylof andit is assessed that reprisal attacks may takeplace. It is assessed that these attacks will bepredominantly targeted against the JTF,although the scale of any reprisals has not yetbeen determined.

18 Nov 08 SINC sources have disclosed that Victor BenEbikabowei (aka Boylof) and Commander AfricaUkparasia have concluded plans to significantly

The primary driver behind this intent isfinancial. Illegal bunkering is also assessed tobe responsible for the majority of inter-militant

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increase their operations in theft of crude oil frommajor oil wells and pipelines in BYS. This may havebeen triggered by increasing pressure from theirloyalists who have complained that their monthlysalary from the BYS Govt is too irregular andinsufficient to sustain them. The likely target areas,which may witness an increase in illegal bunkeringactivities, are assessed to be EA Field, NAOCClough Creek Flow Station in Southern Ijaw LGAand SPDC Agge Flow Station in Ekeremor LGA.Arrangements are said to be underway forbarges/vessels to be used to evacuate the productsout of the country for sale.

SINC EW REP 099, dated 18 Nov 08 refers.

conflicts, driven by the need for territorialcontrol and local dominance in order to secureaccess to assets offering lucrative opportunitiesfrom large-scale theft. Two large-scale crudeoil theft operations were recently disrupted bythe JTF this year. Most recently on 16 Nov 08,MT Akuada was impounded by the JTF. Onboard were 22 Filipinos assessed to have beenworking in collaboration with GovernmentEkpemumpolo. Although it is unlikely that theJTF will be able or is indeed motivated toeradicate oil theft and illegal bunkeringcompletely, it is assessed that efforts will bestepped up to counter the threat posed bycrude oil thieves. This may lead to a backlashagainst the GSF.

11 Nov 08 Boylof threatens renewed attacks against Oil andGas Assets and the JTF in the Niger Delta.

On 10 November 08, media reporting indicated thatthe Movement for the Emancipation of the NigerDelta (MEND) warned that it might launch “anotheroil war” code-named “Hurricane Obama” with theaim to target the oil industry in an unprecedentedmanner, if the JTF carries out an alleged plan toattack two of its major camps located in Bayelsaand Delta states (NFDK).

SINC EW REPS 087, 093, 094, 095 & 096 refer.

On 11 Nov 08, it was announced that the LGAprimaries were to be postponed until furthernotice following a body of threat traffic,indicating that as a result of the precarioussecurity situation in BYS State currentlyunfolding, the elections are likely to be targetedby Boylof. Boylof has threatened to target theJTF and the oil and gas industry if any militaryoperations are mounted against him.Vulnerable areas are currently assessed to beEA Field, Facilities at Tunu, Opukushi,Benisede, Brass Creek, Ogbotobo, Nun Riverand Diebu Creek.

25 Sep 2008Arising from the alleged incessant JTF attack onmilitants in the Niger Delta, representatives of somereconciled militant leaders including those of AsariDokubo, Farah Dagogo, Ateke Tom, Boylof, Africa,Young Shall Grow, John Togo, met in Benin, EdoState on 24 Sep 08. The initial aim of the meetingwas to set up a Joint Emergency Response Squad(ERS) that could be called up at short notice tochallenge/confront the JTF, whenever an attack islaunched on any camp or community. Indicationsare that the reconciled militant leaders consideredsetting up a Joint ERS (that will be made up oftried/tested foot soldiers) as an effective operationalstrategy to strengthen their war with the JTF.

In order to curb and threat, it is reported thatBoylof requested Chief E.K Clark to confirmNFG's position as a result of recentinvestigations. Clark was quoted to havecounselled the militant leaders against furtherhostilities in the region. He allegedly assuredthem of fruitful negotiation with the Presidencyand enjoined the various camps to sustain thecease-fire. He warned that any attack on oilinstallations/facilities might compel FG to readthe riot act. Upon Clark's advice, the meetingresolved among others to:

- Suspend the ESR plan.- Sustained the cease-fire.- Advise militants to exercise wisdom andcaution in their activities.

Should Government fail to keep faith withterms of the negotiation after three months,there are likely to be renewed hostilities.

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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The following series of graphs provide statistical analysis of incident rates and trends in the variousoperational areas. The analysis is strictly caveated by the fact that it is based solely on the number ofincidents and data available to SINC at the time. The graphics and analysis are as accurate as possible,but should not be considered as completely authoritative.

Executive Summary:

Militant Attack on Utorogu FLB and Gas Plant Activities of NUPENG & PENGASSAN East Overview West Overview

Short Term Assessment:

1. Militant Attack on Utorogu FLB and Gas Plant. On 07 Feb 09, the Utorogu FLB and GasPlant was attacked by approximately 40 armed youth. They succeeded in gaining access to the controlroom at the Gas Plant where a letter written by Ughievwen Youth Bodies Fighters to the Chairman,Ughelli South LGA was later discovered. The JTF on site successfully repelled the attack and nodamage was occasioned on the FLB or Gas Plant. MEND subsequently claimed that the attack waspart of its’ threatened program and advised that more such attacks would be carried out. It is assessedthat the attack may actually have been carried out not by MEND fighters as claimed but by aggrievedmember of a community. This attack prompted the Urhobo Youths under the aegis of UrhoboDevelopment and Monitoring Group and some members of the Delta State Waterways SecurityCommittee (DSWSC) to meet with DTS. They recommended the setting up of an Inland Security outfitto compliment the efforts of the DSWSC. It is assessed that the public outcry generated by the attackand the commitment shown by the community to safeguarding the facility may avert future communityyouth attacks. However, the claim by MEND introduces an element of militancy that cannot bediscountenanced.

2. Activities of NUPENG and PENGASSAN. The industrial action threatened by the twomain oil industry trade unions was deferred by three weeks after the unions entered into negotiationswith FGN representatives. However, the Total Zonal Branch of PENGASSAN still went ahead with athree day warning strike which commenced on 09 Feb 09. It is assessed that there was some form ofcommunication breakdown between the National body and the Total Branch. This breakdown could beattributed to the aggrieved state of the Total personnel who have been hard hit by the recent upsurge inkidnaps. It is likely that the three-week postponement will be characterised by series of negotiations,however the ability of the FGN to meet up with all the demands of the unions is assessed to be low. Itis assessed that the three-week ultimatum may end with some form of industrial action being taken ifthe threatened MEND Hurricane Obama/Operation Delete/Operation Zero Exploration is actualised.

EAST

3. Overview. The State Government responded to the heightened insecurity in PHC byrefocusing GSF attention on the City Centre and away from the creeks and waterways. Flash points,criminal escape routes, and crime prone areas such as Iwofe, Ada George and Abacha roads havenow been placed under surveillance by GSF. Further, the State House of Assembly is presentlyconsidering a bill, which seeks to make the offence of kidnap punishable by death sentence asopposed to the maximum 10-year jail sentence applicable prior. Despite these efforts, incidents ofcriminality such as kidnappings remained high. It is assessed that the gains of the new measure maynot be felt immediately, however their efficacy can better be judged at the end of the week in view.

WEST

4. Overview. The response to the Utorogu attack remains the focal point of security in theWest Re-entry project. Minor criminal activities such as armed robbery and community agitations

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continued through the period. The stance of the DTS Government remains that militant activity will becurbed by use of GSF, and militants have been asked to steer clear of the state. It is assessed that theefforts underway by the DTS Government to engage Urhobo youth and members of the DSWSC mayprove to deter further communal based disruptions.

The Weekly Significant Incident Trend Graphs are below:

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Significant Incident Graphs

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Kidnapping Update:

Reverend Doctor Mike Ifijeh, the General Overseer of Covenant Faith Assembly, located off Ada GeorgeRoad, is kidnapped from his residence at Okocha Road, Mbguoshimini, Rumuolumene at about 1035hrs.A ransom demand of N8m is made.

11 Feb 09: Mrs. Grace Kinah, mother of an SPDC staff is abducted at B-Dere..

Releases:

No known releases.

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Glossary of Abbreviations:

AO Area of OperationsBAMOSD Bakassi Movement for Self-DeterminationCOMA Coalition for Militant ActionCOOL Committee Of Organisational LeadersCR Community RelationsEFCC Economic and Financial Crimes CommissionERT Emergency Response TeamFEHN Foundation for Ethnic Harmony in NigeriaFNDIC Federated Niger Delta Ijaw CommunitiesFNU Forename unknownGAND Grand Alliance for the Niger DeltaGPH Greater Port HarcourtGSF Government Security ForcesGW Greater WarriIVF Iduwini Volunteer ForceIYC Ijaw Youth CouncilJRC Joint Revolutionary Council (Umbrella Organisation for a number of militant groups)JTF Joint Task ForceKIA Killed in actionLGA Local Government AreaLN Local National (Nigerian)LTO Licence to OperateMASSOB Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of BiafraMEND Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (Militant Group)MONDP Movement of the Niger Delta PeopleMOPOL Mobile PoliceMoU Memorandum of UnderstandingMOSOP Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni PeopleMOWC Maritime Organisation of West and Central AfricaNARTO National Association of Road Transport OrganisationsNDDC Niger Delta Development CommissionNDPVF Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force (Militant Group)NDV Niger Delta Vigilantes (Militant Group)NGO Non-Government OrganisationNNPC Nigerian National Petroleum CompanyNPA Nigerian Ports AuthorityNPF Nigerian Police ForceNFDK No further Details KnownNSTR Nothing Significant to ReportOCG Organised Crime GroupOGI Oil and Gas IndustryOOLA Ogoni Oilfields Landlords AssociationOPC O’odua Peoples CongressOYC Ogoni Youth CouncilOS Open SourcePDP People’s Democratic PartyPENCODEF Pennington Community Development Front Police Mobile Force (an arm of the Nigerian

Police Force designed as an intervention force)RTA Road Traffic AccidentSAFA Small Arms Fire AttackSCAPO South Cameroon People’s OrganisationSNU Surname UnknownSSG Secretary to the State GovernmentSSPA South-South People’s AssemblySSS State Security ServiceTBC To be confirmedUI UnidentifiedWEF With Effect FromWIA Wounded in actionWNDVF Western Niger Delta Volunteer Force