SIMULATION – key for Safe Energy Production

Centre for Energy ResearchCentre for Energy Research

Hungarian Academy of SciencesHungarian Academy of Sciences

SIMULATION – key forSIMULATION – key forSafe Energy ProductionSafe Energy Production

Janos Sebestyen JANOSYJanos Sebestyen JANOSYSenior ConsultantSenior Consultant

Technical and Scientific Support OrganizationTechnical and Scientific Support Organization

[email protected]@energia.mta.hu


Hungarian Academy of SciencesHungarian Academy of SciencesIndustrial Revolution = EnergyIndustrial Revolution = Energy

Energy = Steam engine = 90% even now! Energy = Steam engine = 90% even now! Engines: we got time to brainworkEngines: we got time to brainwork

EMS2012, Malta, 14 – 16 NovemberEMS2012, Malta, 14 – 16 November 22

Belt transmission

Power control: Speed control!



Factories




Our perspective is not very brightOur perspective is not very brightEnvironmental problems:Environmental problems:

Environmental problems – pollution, climate Environmental problems – pollution, climate change, exhaustion of the resources, etc. – change, exhaustion of the resources, etc. – some kind of “overspending”some kind of “overspending”

Economic problems:Economic problems:

Financial crisis, too much credits – all the Financial crisis, too much credits – all the same - overspending!same - overspending!

Something has to be changed – it’s going to Something has to be changed – it’s going to change anyway …change anyway …




Contents – three questionsContents – three questions - Do we really need so much energy – can we do - Do we really need so much energy – can we do with less?with less?

- Why not to switch to alternatives immediately – - Why not to switch to alternatives immediately – why we need fossils and nuclear power?why we need fossils and nuclear power?

- What is the problem with nuclear energy? Why - What is the problem with nuclear energy? Why accidents happen?accidents happen?

- Conclusions- Conclusions




Energy – key to technical development I.Energy – key to technical development I.

Hungary – less then middle developed in EUHungary – less then middle developed in EU

- Average electrical power per person – 425 W- Average electrical power per person – 425 W

- Average family in Hungary – 4 persons, 1700 W- Average family in Hungary – 4 persons, 1700 W

- A man’s capacity is - A man’s capacity is lessless than 100 W in 8 hours than 100 W in 8 hours-The 1700 W = 17 “slaves” in 3 shifts = 51 peopleThe 1700 W = 17 “slaves” in 3 shifts = 51 people(without logistics)(without logistics)- An average Hungarian family has 51 workers just An average Hungarian family has 51 workers just from electricity consumption of his country!from electricity consumption of his country!- Gas for cars, natural gas heating etc. etc.Gas for cars, natural gas heating etc. etc.




Energy – key to technical development II.Energy – key to technical development II.U.S.A., after WWII: Interstate Highway Program.Roads, cars, housing in suburbs. Lot of work!

Results:

Middle classlifestyle:

Work: ~60kmShop: ~20km

Theatre: ~120km




Energy – key to technical development III.Energy – key to technical development III.

Population in 1949: less than 2 billionsPopulation in 1949: less than 2 billionsPopulation in 2012: reached 7 billionsPopulation in 2012: reached 7 billions

Energy was abundant and cheap to the developed countries – Energy was abundant and cheap to the developed countries – the style and development directions they took is not the style and development directions they took is not affordable to anybody on the earth …affordable to anybody on the earth …

… … At least not as things are nowadays … even less with the At least not as things are nowadays … even less with the present economic crisis!present economic crisis!




Exponential growth – induced exponential growth in Exponential growth – induced exponential growth in energy (slower exp.) and food production (higher energy (slower exp.) and food production (higher exp.) !exp.) !

And everybody used to grow the same way. No big And everybody used to grow the same way. No big leap forward. leap forward.

Not sustainable too much longer … Not sustainable too much longer … That is probably a wrong direction …That is probably a wrong direction …

We do not see dramatic changes so far – that we are We do not see dramatic changes so far – that we are going to turn into any other (sustainable) direction!going to turn into any other (sustainable) direction!

Energy – key to technical development IV.Energy – key to technical development IV.




Energy Production, Consumption & EfficiencyEnergy Production, Consumption & EfficiencyStates

(toe: ton of oil eq.= 41.87 GJ)

Per capita consumption,

toe/person

GDP pro energy

consumption, k$/toe

GDP per citizen,

k$/person

Import, % of consumption Export, -% of

production U.S.A. 7.76 4.55 35.3 31 % Russia 4.46 0.51 2.27 - 46 %

Germany 4.21 5.56 23.4 62 % Hungary 2.61 2.08 5.43 61 % Poland 2.40 2.04 4.90 15 %

Malaysia 2.21 1.89 4.18 - 60 % China 1.22 1.06 1.29 7 %

Nigeria 0.70 0.52 0.364 - 60 % India 0.50 1.01 0.505 18 %

Sources: International Energy Agency Statistics, World Population Prospects Database - 2008Sources: International Energy Agency Statistics, World Population Prospects Database - 2008




Status of COStatus of CO2 2 - as it is now ...- as it is now ...Equilibrium in chemical processesEquilibrium in chemical processesBurningBurning ((heat generatedheat generated) ) →→ Conc.: Conc.: .028%.028%

C+OC+O2 2 ↔ CO↔ CO22

Conc.:Conc.: 20%20% ←← PhotosynthesisPhotosynthesis ((energy absorptionenergy absorption))

All carbon is "hidden" below earth surface ...All carbon is "hidden" below earth surface ... Efficiency of the photosynthesis: lessEfficiency of the photosynthesis: less than than 1%1%It is NOT an equilibrium - drifted fully to the left ...It is NOT an equilibrium - drifted fully to the left ...It could be the opposite side, tooIt could be the opposite side, too ... ... ?!? ?!?




The COThe CO2 2 problemproblem I.I.- Before Industry- Before Industry – 280 ppm (photosynthesis?) – 280 ppm (photosynthesis?) - Late 1950s- Late 1950s – 315 ppm, 113 %– 315 ppm, 113 %- In 2008- In 2008 – 380 ppm, 136 %– 380 ppm, 136 %- Growing by exponent … now 2 ppm/year- Growing by exponent … now 2 ppm/year-Threshold valueThreshold value – around 450 ppm, 161 %– around 450 ppm, 161 %

The expected growth is far higher than the growth The expected growth is far higher than the growth of the global industry, because:of the global industry, because:Big developing countriesBig developing countries: China, India – per : China, India – per capita producing capita producing far lessfar less than the U.S.A., but are than the U.S.A., but are growing growing more rapidlymore rapidly and have and have big populationsbig populations




The COThe CO2 2 problemproblem II.II.U.S.A. producing around a U.S.A. producing around a quarter of all CO2quarter of all CO2and keep and keep growing 20%growing 20% between 2000-2020 between 2000-2020

China: China: produces 80% of the cement & concrete of the produces 80% of the cement & concrete of the whole world (lot of energy needed for that)whole world (lot of energy needed for that) Coal-firing new power plants are connected to Coal-firing new power plants are connected to grid every week or so (lot of new carbon release)grid every week or so (lot of new carbon release)China, India: China, India: Nuclear power cannot catch-upNuclear power cannot catch-up to to the speed of the growth even if they would like …the speed of the growth even if they would like …











Renewables, alternatives I.Renewables, alternatives I. Renewables: directly and indirectly:Renewables: directly and indirectly: all produced by the all produced by the SUNSUN

Directly: Not producing CODirectly: Not producing CO22

- Solar panel (not feasable yet), solar boiler- Solar panel (not feasable yet), solar boiler

- Wind mill, wind turbine- Wind mill, wind turbine

- Water dams, water turbines- Water dams, water turbines

- Wave power (?), on coastlines- Wave power (?), on coastlines




Renewables, alternatives II.Renewables, alternatives II.

Renewables: directly and indirectly: Renewables: directly and indirectly: all power produced by the all power produced by the SUNSUN

Indirectly: Not producing COIndirectly: Not producing CO2 2 , too! , too!

- Biomass- Biomass

- Bio-ethanol, bio-diesel- Bio-ethanol, bio-diesel




Renewables, alternatives III.Renewables, alternatives III.

Alternatives:Alternatives:

Not producing CONot producing CO2 2 - either- either

- Fusion power (as ITER) – still far ahead - Fusion power (as ITER) – still far ahead

- Geothermal energy – questionable- Geothermal energy – questionable

(because not renewable!)(because not renewable!)

- Electrical cars: at least questionable …- Electrical cars: at least questionable …




More energy - let's use the sun ?!More energy - let's use the sun ?!

Source Data from

Production, billion of gallons

(cost, $/g)

Gallon of

gas, USD

Gallon of

ethanol, USD

Price of equiv.

ethanol, USD

Energy balance prod.

per cons.

Emission compared

by gas, less by:

Corn U.S.A. 4.86 (1.09$) 3.03 2.62 3.71 1.3 : 1 22% S. Cane Brasil 3.96 (0.87$) 4.91* 2.92 3.88 8 : 1 56%

Cellulose U.S.A. Developing 2...36 : 1 up to 91% Soybean** Germany 0.5 6.15 6.80 6.73 2.5 : 1 68% * - contains 25% ethanol anyway ** Bio-Diesel compared with traditional Diesel

Ethanol : Octane is 113Ethanol : Octane is 113 (better than gas) (better than gas)- but energy content: abt. 67% of the gas- but energy content: abt. 67% of the gas

Diesel: about the same as diesel from crude oilDiesel: about the same as diesel from crude oil

(Ford originally used ethanol, and(Ford originally used ethanol, and DieselDiesel oil from peanuts!)oil from peanuts!)These are questionable numbers:These are questionable numbers:




Food production problems I.Food production problems I.Terrain = const.

Terrain =

Wildlife habitats, national parks

ORAgriculture,that means

- Food production

- OR Bio-energy

production




Food production problems II.Food production problems II.- Population is growing exponentially- Population is growing exponentially- Food production has to grow (at least) - Food production has to grow (at least) exponentially, too …exponentially, too …- It could be done only by intensification - It could be done only by intensification (fertilizers, pesticides, machinery, etc.) (fertilizers, pesticides, machinery, etc.) resulting in much bigger yieldsresulting in much bigger yields- Soils not cultivated intensively are already - Soils not cultivated intensively are already limited. limited. Cutting rain forests even more?!Cutting rain forests even more?!

- “Bio” production: clearly a concurrent- “Bio” production: clearly a concurrent




Food Food prod.prod.prob-prob-lems lems III.III.

Sara-Sara-wakwak




Food production problems III.Food production problems III.- Changing habits: we eat more meat …- Changing habits: we eat more meat …- Hungary: even in the XIX. century: - Hungary: even in the XIX. century:

commons were eating meat only once, commons were eating meat only once, max. twice a week; now every day;max. twice a week; now every day;

- China: changing the same way:- China: changing the same way:- Developed countries: 20-25% of meat- Developed countries: 20-25% of meat- China: now 3-5% but growing fast- China: now 3-5% but growing fast- Eating meat means: 6 times more - Eating meat means: 6 times more

vegetation should be produced!!vegetation should be produced!!




Problems with the renewablesProblems with the renewables- Basically most of them are unpredictable, except water Basically most of them are unpredictable, except water

power (melting snow, storage)power (melting snow, storage)- Electrical energy cannot be stored, production should be Electrical energy cannot be stored, production should be

equal to consumption (water plants can mitigate the equal to consumption (water plants can mitigate the storage problem a little)storage problem a little)

- Without significant amount of water dams unpredictable Without significant amount of water dams unpredictable part should be less than 12-14%part should be less than 12-14%

- With significant amount of water power it can be up to With significant amount of water power it can be up to max. 20-24% of powermax. 20-24% of power

- In Hungary: nuclear power 40%, in France: ~70%In Hungary: nuclear power 40%, in France: ~70%- Anyway, we have to have backup – costs!Anyway, we have to have backup – costs!











Basic problems of NPPs I.Basic problems of NPPs I.Three significant incidents so far:Three significant incidents so far:1.1. Three Mile Island accident: poor Three Mile Island accident: poor

instrumentation, insufficient information, instrumentation, insufficient information, wrong operating philosophywrong operating philosophy

2.2. Chernobyl: known but unhandled design Chernobyl: known but unhandled design flaw, clear violation of the operational flaw, clear violation of the operational rulesrules

3.3. Fukushima: Inadequate preparation to Fukushima: Inadequate preparation to natural disaster, outdated old plantnatural disaster, outdated old plant




Basic problems of NPPs II.Basic problems of NPPs II."Remnant" heat is generated for long even after "Remnant" heat is generated for long even after the chain reaction is switched off ...the chain reaction is switched off ...

Fuel rods of Fuel rods of Ø9-Ø10 mm diameter, 2.5-4.5 m long, Ø9-Ø10 mm diameter, 2.5-4.5 m long, Zirconium cladding, inside UZirconium cladding, inside U22OO55 pellets, power pellets, power

density 70-90 kW/Liter (!) - even after shutdown density 70-90 kW/Liter (!) - even after shutdown several kW/Liter - if the fuel rods are not covered several kW/Liter - if the fuel rods are not covered by water, they melt down (electrical teapot effect)by water, they melt down (electrical teapot effect)

Practically Practically THE SAFETYTHE SAFETY means: keep the core means: keep the core under water and cooled under water and cooled ALL THE TIME!ALL THE TIME!




Basic problems of NPPs III.Basic problems of NPPs III.Fission means splitting UFission means splitting U235235 atoms by chain reaction, using atoms by chain reaction, using neutrons. 93-94% of heat comes from fission.neutrons. 93-94% of heat comes from fission.

All the fission products – parts of the former UAll the fission products – parts of the former U235235 atom – atom –can be found in the periodical table, they are all well can be found in the periodical table, they are all well known elements – like iodine, iron, lead, etc.known elements – like iodine, iron, lead, etc.

Parts of these element have excess energy, they are Parts of these element have excess energy, they are radioactive, they get rid of this energy by radiation and radioactive, they get rid of this energy by radiation and producing heat.producing heat.

This heat gives the 6-7% of energy, not coming directly This heat gives the 6-7% of energy, not coming directly from chain reaction, from fission itself. This heat cannot be from chain reaction, from fission itself. This heat cannot be eliminated, it produced by radioactive decay.eliminated, it produced by radioactive decay.




Heat after shutdown I.Heat after shutdown I.

Time after shutdown, hoursTime after shutdown, hours

%%




Heat after shutdown II.Heat after shutdown II.

Time after shutdown, secondsTime after shutdown, seconds

%%




The 6-loop VVER-440The 6-loop VVER-440




The FUKUSHIMA boiling water reactor unit I.The FUKUSHIMA boiling water reactor unit I.




The FUKUSHIMA boiling water reactor unit I.The FUKUSHIMA boiling water reactor unit I.




NPP design conceptsNPP design concepts1. NO (normal operation)1. NO (normal operation)2. AOO (anticipated operational occurrences) Turbine and 2. AOO (anticipated operational occurrences) Turbine and

pump trips, valve malfunctions, equipment failure pump trips, valve malfunctions, equipment failure etc. etc.etc. etc.

These should be handled without further damage to the These should be handled without further damage to the equipment. No release should happen.equipment. No release should happen.

3. DBA (design basis accident) e.g. LOCA, big cooling 3. DBA (design basis accident) e.g. LOCA, big cooling pipe break. The core should not melt – the proper pipe break. The core should not melt – the proper cooling should be provided even in this case.cooling should be provided even in this case.

4. BDBA (Beyond design basis accident) – everything 4. BDBA (Beyond design basis accident) – everything unthinkable. The core can melt, but significant unthinkable. The core can melt, but significant amount of radioactivity should not be released. amount of radioactivity should not be released.




What happened?What happened?Plant withstood the Magnitude 9 Earthquake Plant withstood the Magnitude 9 Earthquake – all units – all units tripped normally. The roads were destroyed, electrical tripped normally. The roads were destroyed, electrical power lines crushed, external power out, the units all power lines crushed, external power out, the units all stopped: internal power out as well. The diesel generators stopped: internal power out as well. The diesel generators started normally. The cooling went on normally.started normally. The cooling went on normally.After several hours later the tsunami arrivedAfter several hours later the tsunami arrived. The plant was . The plant was designed to withstand 8m tsunami, but it was 11m high. It designed to withstand 8m tsunami, but it was 11m high. It destroyed the infrastructure, including the cooling destroyed the infrastructure, including the cooling radiators of the diesels, and the fuel tanks. They stopped radiators of the diesels, and the fuel tanks. They stopped and the cooling of the fuel rods ceased.and the cooling of the fuel rods ceased.Being higher on the slope, the 5Being higher on the slope, the 5thth and 6 and 6thth unit withstood the unit withstood the tsunami, too, they are in good shape, they were restarted tsunami, too, they are in good shape, they were restarted already.already.




What happened after that?What happened after that?There was no cooling, no energy. The cores started to dry There was no cooling, no energy. The cores started to dry out and heat up. Even if it goes to melting, it is foreseen out and heat up. Even if it goes to melting, it is foreseen what would happen. The vessel is cooled, still sitting in what would happen. The vessel is cooled, still sitting in water, if it fails and melts through, there is the core catcher water, if it fails and melts through, there is the core catcher etc. The 3 layers of the containment will keep the decaying etc. The 3 layers of the containment will keep the decaying fission products inside. This process evolves for weeks, fission products inside. This process evolves for weeks, there is time recover the cooling somehow.there is time recover the cooling somehow.

Then the Zirconium reaction came, what was not regarded Then the Zirconium reaction came, what was not regarded as of basic importance 40 years ago.as of basic importance 40 years ago.

(The cladding of the fuel element is made of Zirconium.)(The cladding of the fuel element is made of Zirconium.)




The disastrous Zr reactionThe disastrous Zr reactionHere is it:Here is it:

Zr + 2 H2O ZrO2 + 2H2 + 5 MJ/kg-ZrTo start the reaction we need 1200C. We get it if there is no cooling in the core.The zirconium is burning, reducting the oxygen from water. That needs energy, but the remaining 5MJ energy is a lot for 1kg of Zirconium. An there is the produced hydrogen …











The consequencesThe consequences1.1. Shock tests to be performed to NPPs all overShock tests to be performed to NPPs all over2.2. If there are no energy reasonable replacements, we If there are no energy reasonable replacements, we

should do everything according to our best knowledgeshould do everything according to our best knowledge3.3. USA: new units are to be constructed in Texas, tax USA: new units are to be constructed in Texas, tax

shelter for the first 6 new unitsshelter for the first 6 new units4.4. Russia, Mexico, France, Finland, China are started Russia, Mexico, France, Finland, China are started

construction of new plants - over 30 reactors are construction of new plants - over 30 reactors are already under construction – Japan, Sweden are already under construction – Japan, Sweden are considering considering

5.5. Japan: stopped 53 of 54, very bad economic difficultiesJapan: stopped 53 of 54, very bad economic difficulties6.6. Germany and some others (?) are gradually stoppingGermany and some others (?) are gradually stopping




What should be done?What should be done?Generation IV: Inherent safety!Generation IV: Inherent safety!

Cooling should be maintained with natural Cooling should be maintained with natural circulation, without external energy or circulation, without external energy or human interaction.human interaction.

Properly cooled: no Zr reaction, but enough Properly cooled: no Zr reaction, but enough Hydrogen re-combiners should be installedHydrogen re-combiners should be installed

On the design desks already long before On the design desks already long before Fukushima happened.Fukushima happened.




An example:An example:

Upper water tank: startsUpper water tank: startscooling if temperature iscooling if temperature ishigh enoughhigh enoughNatural circulation:Natural circulation:- Air cooling- Air cooling- Internal cooling- Internal coolingReactor vessel is the Reactor vessel is the lowest point, all the water lowest point, all the water flows there flows there No external energy and No external energy and no human/automatic no human/automatic interaction is neededinteraction is needed




Core cooling:Core cooling:The tank The tank condenses the condenses the blow down, blow down, feeds the feeds the reactor vessel; reactor vessel; water is water is collected from collected from the floor and the floor and led to the core led to the core without without external external energy or energy or interactioninteraction




Simulation: everywhere, everything, alwaysSimulation: everywhere, everything, always

All or existing knowledge is concentrated now All or existing knowledge is concentrated now in simulation packages, simulation codes; in simulation packages, simulation codes;

The codes/packages are verified and validated The codes/packages are verified and validated carefully against well-designed experiments, carefully against well-designed experiments, recorded transients and accidents;recorded transients and accidents;

We are asking the questions and simulation We are asking the questions and simulation gives us answers;gives us answers;

The key point is: are we asking all the right The key point is: are we asking all the right questions? May be we forget to ask sometimes questions? May be we forget to ask sometimes something extraordinary? something extraordinary?




Thank you Thank you for your for your

attentionattention!!

Questions?Questions?

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SIMULATION – key for Safe Energy Production