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Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury using the NOAA HYSPLIT Model Presentation at the NOAA Atmospheric Mercury Meeting November 14-15, 2006, Silver Spring MD Mark Cohen, Roland Draxler and Richard Artz NOAA Air Resources Laboratory 1315 East West Highway, R/ARL, Room 3316 Silver Spring, Maryland, 20910

Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

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Page 1: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury

using the NOAA HYSPLIT Model

Presentation at the NOAA Atmospheric Mercury Meeting

November 14-15, 2006, Silver Spring MD

Mark Cohen, Roland Draxler and Richard ArtzNOAA Air Resources Laboratory

1315 East West Highway, R/ARL, Room 3316

Silver Spring, Maryland, 20910

Page 2: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

methodology

2

Page 3: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Dry and wet deposition of the pollutants in the puff are estimated at each time step.

The puff’s mass, size, and location are continuously tracked…

Phase partitioning and chemical transformations of pollutants within the puff are estimated at each time step

= mass of pollutant(changes due to chemical transformations and deposition that occur at each time step)

Centerline of puff motion determined by wind direction and velocity

Initial puff location is at source, with mass depending on emissions rate

TIME (hours)0 1 2

deposition 1 deposition 2 deposition to receptor

lake

Lagrangian Puff Atmospheric Fate and Transport ModelNOAA HYSPLITMODEL

3

Page 4: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

4

Page 5: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

5

Page 6: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• In principle, we need do this for each source in the inventory

• But, since there are more than 100,000 sources in the U.S. and Canadian inventory, we need shortcuts…

• Shortcuts described in Cohen et al Environmental Research 95(3), 247-265, 2004

6

Page 7: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Cohen, M., Artz, R., Draxler, R., Miller, P., Poissant, L., Niemi, D., Ratte, D., Deslauriers, M., Duval, R., Laurin, R., Slotnick, J., Nettesheim, T., McDonald, J.“Modeling the Atmospheric Transport and Deposition of Mercury to the Great Lakes.” Environmental Research95(3), 247-265, 2004.

Note: Volume 95(3) is a Special Issue: "An Ecosystem Approach toHealth Effects of Mercury in the St. Lawrence Great Lakes", edited by David O. Carpenter.

7

Page 8: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• For each run, simulate fate and transport everywhere,but only keep track of impacts on each selected receptor(e.g., Great Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, etc.)

• Only run model for a limited number (~100) of hypothetical, individual unit-emissions sources throughout the domain

• Use spatial interpolation to estimate impacts from sources at locations not explicitly modeled

8

Page 9: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Spatial interpolation

RECEPTOR

Impacts fromSources 1-3are ExplicitlyModeled

2

1

3

Impact of source 4 estimated fromweighted average of impacts of nearbyexplicitly modeled sources

4

9

Page 10: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• Perform separate simulations at each location for emissions of pure Hg(0), Hg(II) and Hg(p)

[after emission, simulate transformations between Hg forms]

• Impact of emissions mixture taken as a linear combination of impacts of pure component runs on any given receptor

10

Page 11: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

“Chemical Interpolation”

Source

RECEPTOR

Impact of SourceEmitting30% Hg(0)50% Hg(II)20% Hg(p)

=

Impact of Source Emitting Pure Hg(0)0.3 x

Impact of Source Emitting Pure Hg(II)0.5 x

Impact of Source Emitting Pure Hg(p)0.2 x

++

11

Page 12: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

EmissionsInventories

MeteorologicalData

Scientific understanding ofphase partitioning,

atmospheric chemistry, and deposition processes

Ambient data for comprehensive model evaluation and improvement

What do atmospheric mercury models need?

12

Page 13: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• 1996, 1999 U.S. NEI• 1995, 2000 Canada

Previous Work

Emissions Inventories

13

Page 14: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• 1996, 1999 U.S. NEI• 1995, 2000 Canada

Previous Work

Emissions Inventories

• 2002 U.S. NEI• 2002 Canada• Global – 2000 (Pacyna-NILU)• Natural sources• Re-emitted anthropogenic

Current Objectives

14

Page 15: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• 1996, 1999 U.S. NEI• 1995, 2000 Canada

Previous Work

Emissions Inventories

• 2002 U.S. NEI• 2002 Canada• Global – 2000 (Pacyna-NILU)• Natural sources• Re-emitted anthropogenic

Current Objectives

• Speciation?• Short-term variations (e.g. hourly) [CEM’s?]• Longer-term variations (e.g., maintenance)?• Mobile sources• Harmonization of source-categories • Emissions inventories currently only become available

many years after the fact; how can we evaluate models using current monitoring data?

Challenges and Notes

15

Page 16: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• For U.S./Canadian modeling, 1996 data from NOAA Nested Grid Model (NGM), 180 kmPrevious Work

Meteorological Data

16

Page 17: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• For U.S./Canadian modeling, 1996 data from NOAA Nested Grid Model (NGM), 180 kmPrevious Work

Meteorological Data

• U.S. – NOAA EDAS 40 km, 3 hr• Global – NOAA GDAS 1o x 1o, 3 hrCurrent Objectives

17

Page 18: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• Forecast vs. Analysis• Data assimilation• Precipitation??• Difficult to archive NOAA analysis datasets• Need finer-resolution datasets, especially for

near-field analysis and model evaluation• We have conversion filters (e.g., for MM5), but

these data are not readily available• What is the best way to archive and share data?

Challenges and Notes

• For U.S./Canadian modeling, 1996 data from NOAA Nested Grid Model (NGM), 180 kmPrevious Work

Meteorological Data

• U.S. – NOAA EDAS 40 km, 3 hr• Global – NOAA GDAS 1o x 1o, 3 hrCurrent Objectives

18

Page 19: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• Typical chemical mechanism• Prescribed fields for reactive trace gases (e.g., O3,

OH, SO2) and other necessary constituents (e.g., soot) based on modeled, measured, and/or empirical relationships

Previous Work

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

19

Page 20: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

GAS PHASE REACTIONS

AQUEOUS PHASE REACTIONS

ReferenceUnitsRateReaction

Xiao et al. (1994); Bullock and Brehme (2002)

(sec)-1 (maximum)6.0E-7Hg+2 + h< → Hg0

eqlbrm: Seigneur et al. (1998)

rate: Bullock & Brehme (2002).

liters/gram;t = 1/hour

9.0E+2Hg(II) ↔ Hg(II) (soot)

Lin and Pehkonen(1998)(molar-sec)-12.0E+6Hg0 + OCl-1 → Hg+2

Lin and Pehkonen(1998)(molar-sec)-12.1E+6Hg0 + HOCl → Hg+2

Gardfeldt & Jonnson (2003)(molar-sec)-1~ 0Hg(II) + HO2• → Hg0

Van Loon et al. (2002)T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1

[T = temperature (K)]HgSO3 → Hg0

Lin and Pehkonen(1997)(molar-sec)-12.0E+9Hg0 + OH• → Hg+2

Munthe (1992)(molar-sec)-14.7E+7Hg0 + O3 → Hg+2

Sommar et al. (2001)cm3/molec-sec8.7E-14Hg0 +OH• → Hg(p)

Calhoun and Prestbo (2001)cm3/molec-sec4.0E-18Hg0 + Cl2 → HgCl2

Tokos et al. (1998) (upper limit based on experiments)

cm3/molec-sec8.5E-19Hg0 + H2O2 → Hg(p)

Hall and Bloom (1993)cm3/molec-sec1.0E-19Hg0 + HCl → HgCl2

Hall (1995)cm3/molec-sec3.0E-20Hg0 + O3 → Hg(p)

Atmospheric Chemical Reaction Scheme for Mercury

20

Page 21: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• Typical chemical mechanism• Prescribed fields for reactive trace gases (e.g., O3,

OH, SO2) and other necessary constituents (e.g., soot) based on modeled, measured, and/or empirical relationships

Previous Work

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

• Include new information on chemistry, e.g., bromine reactions, etc.

• Add SO2 and potentially other compounds into in-situ plume chemistry treatment

• Sensitivity analyses• Consider using gridded chemical output from

full-chemistry atmospheric model (e.g., CMAQ) • Option - run HYSPLIT in Eulerian mode for

chemistry; conduct one-atmosphere simulation

Current Objectives

21

Page 22: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• Typical chemical mechanism• Prescribed fields for reactive trace gases (e.g., O3,

OH, SO2) and other necessary constituents (e.g., soot) based on modeled, measured, and/or empirical relationships

Previous Work

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

• Include new information on chemistry, e.g., Br reactions, etc.• Add SO2 and potentially other compounds into in-situ plume

chemistry treatment• Sensitivity analyses• Consider using gridded chemical output from full-chemistry

atmospheric model (e.g., CMAQ) • Option - run HYSPLIT in Eulerian mode for chemistry;

conduct one-atmosphere simulation

Current Objectives

• What is RGM?• What is Hg(p)?• What is solubility of Hg(p)?• Fate of dissolved Hg(II) when droplet dries out?• What reactions don’t we know about yet?• What are rates of reactions?• Uncertainties in wet & dry deposition processes...

Challenges and Notes

22

Page 23: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• US: 1996 MDN measurements• Europe: 1999 speciated ambient concentrations in short-term

episodes, monthly wet deposition

Previous Work

Model Evaluation

23

Page 24: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

24

Total Gaseous Mercury (ng/m3) at Neuglobsow: June 26 – July 6, 1995

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 HYSPLITmeasurements

Page 25: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

25

Total Particulate Mercury (pg/m3) at Neuglobsow, Nov 1-14, 1999

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150HYSPLIT

measurements

Page 26: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

26

HYSPLIT Neuglobsow RGM

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

11/1

/99

11/2

/99

11/3

/99

11/4

/99

11/5

/99

11/6

/99

11/7

/99

11/8

/99

11/9

/99

11/1

0/99

11/1

1/99

11/1

2/99

11/1

3/99

11/1

4/99

Date

pg/m

3

ObsCalc

a

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

Reactive Gaseous Mercury at Neuglobsow, Nov 1-14, 1999

Page 27: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• US: 1996 MDN measurements• Europe: 1999 speciated ambient concentrations in short-term

episodes, monthly wet deposition

Previous Work

Model Evaluation

• Attempt to utilize all available speciated ambient concentrations and wet deposition data from U.S. and other regions

Current Objectives

27

Page 28: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

• US: 1996 MDN measurements• Europe: 1999 speciated ambient concentrations in short-term

episodes, monthly wet deposition

Previous Work

Model Evaluation

• Attempt to utilize all available speciated ambient concentrations and wet deposition data from U.S. and other regions

Current Objectives

• Comprehensive evaluation has not been possible due to large gapsin availability of monitoring and process-related data

• Need data for upper atmosphere as well as surface• Need data for both source-impacted and background sites• Use of recent monitoring data with EPA 2002 inventory?• Time-resolved monitoring data vs. non-time-resolved emissions?• Hard to diagnose differences between models & measurements• Can we find better ways to share data for model evaluation (and

other purposes)? To this end, discussion is beginning on national, cooperative, ambient Hg monitoring network

Challenges and Notes

28

Page 29: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

29

Hg from other sources: local, regional & more distant

emissions of Hg(0), Hg(II), Hg(p)

atmospheric depositionto the water

surface

Hg(0)

Hg(II) Hg(p)

atmosphericchemistry

inter-converts mercury forms

atmospheric deposition

to the watershed

Measurement of wet

depositionWET DEPOSITION complex – hard to diagnoseweekly – many eventsbackground – also need near-field

Measurement of ambient air

concentrations

AMBIENT AIR CONCENTRATIONS more fundamental – easier to diagnoseneed continuous – episodic source impactsneed speciation – at least RGM, Hg(p), Hg(0)need data at surface and above

Page 30: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

30

Hg from other sources: local, regional & more distant

atmospheric depositionto the water

surface

atmospheric deposition

to the watershed

Measurement of ambient air

concentrations

Measurement of wet

deposition

R e s o l u t i o n : 2 . 5 m i n D u r a t i o n : 1 1 D a y s

0

2

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

2 5 - A u g 2 6 - A u g 2 7 - A u g 2 8 - A u g 2 9 - A u g 3 0 - A u g 3 1 - A u g 0 1 - S e p 0 2 - S e p 0 3 - S e p 0 4 - S e p 0 5 - S e p

Hg

- (u

g/m

3 )

H g TH g 0H g 2

S e r i e s 3 3 0 0 C E M - C o n t i n u o u s S p e c i a t e d M e r c u r y D a t a

Page 31: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

R e s o lu t io n : 2 .5 m in D u ra t io n : 1 1 D a y s

0

2

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

2 5 -A u g 2 6 -A u g 2 7 -A u g 2 8 -A u g 2 9 -A u g 3 0 -A u g 3 1 -A u g 0 1 -S e p 0 2 -S e p 0 3 -S e p 0 4 -S e p 0 5 -S e p

Hg

- (u

g/m

3 )

H g TH g 0H g 2

S e r ie s 3 3 0 0 C E M - C o n tin u o u s S p e c ia te d M e r c u ry D a ta

Source: Tekran Instruments Corporation

31

Page 32: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Example of results: Rock Creek Watershed

32

Page 33: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Largest Model-Estimated U.S./Canada Anthropogenic Contributors to 1999 Mercury Deposition to the Rock Creek Watershed (large region)

33

Page 34: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Largest Model-Estimated U.S./Canada Anthropogenic Contributors to 1999 Mercury Deposition to the Rock Creek Watershed (close up)

34

Page 35: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Proportions of 1999 Model-Estimated AtmosphericDeposition to the Rock Creek Watershed from Different

Anthropogenic U.S./Canada Mercury Emissions Source Sectors

municipal waste incin17.2%

medical waste incin14.2%

other waste incin5.4%

metallurgical2.1%

cement/concrete0.7%

chemical/other manufacturing4.6%

oil combustion (non-mobile)3.1%

other coal combustion0.2%

coal-fired elec gen50.7%

all other fuel combustion1.8%

35

Page 36: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Top 25 Contributors to Hg Deposition to Rock Creek Watershed

Phoenix ServicesArlington - Pentagon

Potomac RiverChalk Point

MorgantownDickerson

Possum PointBrandon Shores RoxboroChesterfield Mt. Storm Homer City Keystone

Montgomery County Incin. StericycleJohn E AmosBaltimore RESCO BMWNC MontourHarrisburg WTEWestinghouse Savannah Riv.

Belews CreekJerritt CanyonShawvilleIndian River

MD VA

VA MD

MD MD VA MD NC VA WV PA PA MD MD WV MD NC PA PA SC NC NV PA DE

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Cumulative Fraction of Hg Deposition

0

5

10

15

20

25R

ank

coal-fired elec genother fuel combustionwaste incinerationmetallurgical

36

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Atmospheric Deposition Flux to the Rock Creek Watershedfrom Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions Sources in the U.S. and Canada

37

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38

Thanks!For more information on this research:

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ss/transport/cohen.html

38

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Page 40: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

ExtraSlides

Page 41: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Context

Page 42: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

42

Hg from other sources: local, regional & more distant

emissions of Hg(0), Hg(II), Hg(p)

atmospheric depositionto the water

surface

atmospheric deposition

to the watershed

Page 43: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

CLOUD DROPLET

cloud

PrimaryAnthropogenic

Emissions

Hg(II), ionic mercury, RGMElemental Mercury [Hg(0)]

Particulate Mercury [Hg(p)]

Re-emission of previously deposited anthropogenic

and natural mercury

Hg(II) reduced to Hg(0) by SO2 and sunlight

Hg(0) oxidized to dissolved Hg(II) species by O3, OH,

HOCl, OCl-

Adsorption/desorptionof Hg(II) to/from soot

Naturalemissions

Upper atmospherichalogen-mediatedheterogeneous oxidation?

Polar sunrise“mercury depletion events”

Br

Dry deposition

Wet deposition

Hg(p)

Vapor phase:

Hg(0) oxidized to RGM and Hg(p) by O3, H202, Cl2, OH, HCl

Atmospheric Mercury Fate Processes

43

Page 44: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

policy development requires:source-attribution (source-receptor info) estimated impacts of alternative future scenarios

estimation of source-attribution & future impactsrequires atmospheric models

atmospheric models require:knowledge of atmospheric chemistry & fateemissions dataambient data for “ground-truthing”

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methodology

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Emissions

Atm

osphericC

hemistry

Meteorology

Transport andD

ispersion

Wet and D

ryD

eposition

Atmospheric Mercury Model

Measurements at specific locations

Ambient concentrations and deposition

Model evaluation

Model resultsSource

attribution

Page 47: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Some Current Atmospheric Chemistry Challenges

Plume chemistry, e.g., rapid reduction of RGM to elemental mercury?

47

If significant reduction of RGM to Hg(0) is occurring in power-plant plumes, then much less local/regional deposition

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If significant reduction of RGM to Hg(0) is occurring in power-plant plumes, then much less local/regional deposition

No known chemical reaction is capable of causing significant reduction of RGM in plumes – e.g. measured rates of SO2reduction can’t explain some of the claimed reduction rates

Very hard to measureAircraftStatic Plume Dilution Chambers (SPDC)Ground-based measurements

48

RGM reduction in power-plant plumes?

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Most current state-of-the-science models do not include processes that lead to significant reduction in plumes

Recent measurement results show less reduction

Significant uncertainties – e.g., mass balance errors comparable to measured effects…

Current status – inconclusive… but weight of evidence suggest that while some reduction may be occurring, it may be only a relatively small amount

Recent measurements at Steubenville, OH appear to show strong local mercury deposition from coal-fired power plant emissions.

RGM reduction in power-plant plumes?

49

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Some Current Atmospheric Chemistry Challenges

Plume chemistry, e.g., rapid reduction of RGM to elemental mercury?Boundary conditions for regional models?

50

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Some Current Atmospheric Chemistry Challenges

Plume chemistry, e.g., rapid reduction of RGM to elemental mercury?Boundary conditions for regional models?

Oxidation of elemental mercury by O3 and OH• may be over-represented, leading to overestimation of the contribution of global sources to regional deposition

Calvert, J., and S. Lindberg (2005). Mechanisms of mercury removal by O3 and OH in the atmosphere. Atmospheric Environment 39: 3355-3367.

51

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Some Current Atmospheric Chemistry Challenges

Plume chemistry, e.g., rapid reduction of RGM to elemental mercury?Boundary conditions for regional models?

Oxidation of elemental mercury by O3 and OH• may be over-represented, leading to overestimation of the contribution of global sources to regional deposition

Calvert, J., and S. Lindberg (2005). Mechanisms of mercury removal by O3 and OH in the atmosphere. Atmospheric Environment 39: 3355-3367.

Atmospheric methyl-mercury: significance? sources? transport? chemistry? deposition?

e.g., Hall et al. (2005). Methyl and total mercury in precipitation in the Great Lakes region. Atmospheric Environment 39: 7557-7569.

52

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Some Current Atmospheric Chemistry Challenges

Plume chemistry, e.g., rapid reduction of RGM to elemental mercury?Boundary conditions for regional models?

Oxidation of elemental mercury by O3 and OH• may be over-represented, leading to overestimation of the contribution of global sources to regional deposition

Calvert, J., and S. Lindberg (2005). Mechanisms of mercury removal by O3 and OH in the atmosphere. Atmospheric Environment 39: 3355-3367.

Atmospheric methyl-mercury: significance? sources? transport? chemistry? deposition?

e.g., Hall et al. (2005). Methyl and total mercury in precipitation in the Great Lakes region. Atmospheric Environment 39: 7557-7569.

Source-Receptor answers influenced by above factors

53

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emissions

Page 55: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Geographic Distribution of Estimated Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions in the U.S. (1999) and Canada (2000)

Page 56: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Variations on time scales of minutes to hoursCEM’s needed – and not just on coal-fired power plantsCEM’s must be speciated or of little use in developing critical source-receptor informationClean Air Mercury Rule only requires ~weekly total-Hg measurements, for purposes of trading

We don’t have information about major eventse.g., maintenance or permanent closures, installation of new pollution control devices, process changesTherefore, difficult to interpret trends in ambient data

Temporal Problems with Emissions Inventories

Long delay before inventories released2002 inventory is being released this year in U.S.; till now, the latest available inventory was for 1999How can we use new measurement data?

Page 57: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Amortize over 4 yrs: ~$50,000/yr

~$50,000/yr to operate

Speciation Continuous Emissions Monitor (CEM):

~$200,000 to purchase/installCost of Electricity

0.10/kw-hr 0.10001/kw-hr

1000 MW x $0.10/kw-hr = $1,000,000,000 per year

Overall Budget of Power Plant

Total: ~$100,000/yr

$1000/yr $1000.10/yr

Page 58: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

illustrative model results

Page 59: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60 60 - 120 120 - 250distance range from source (km)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100hy

poth

etic

al 1

kg/

day

sour

cede

posi

tion

flux

(ug/

m2-

yr) f

or

Hg(II) emitHg(p) emit

Hg(0) emit

Logarithmic

Why are emissions speciation data - and potential plume transformations -- critical?

59NOTE: distance results averaged over all directions –Some directions will have higher fluxes, some will have lower

Page 60: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

source-receptor results

Page 61: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•
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Figure __. Hg Deposition From U.S.Coal-Fired Power Plants in 1999

Lake

Erie

Lake

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onLa

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Tah

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ound

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Dep

ositi

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Lake

Erie

Lake

Mic

higa

n

Lake

Sup

erio

r

Lake

Hur

on

Lake

Ont

ario

Lk C

ham

plai

n

Lake

Tah

oe

Puge

t Sou

nd

Mes

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Mob

ile B

ay

Mam

mot

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ave

NP

Sand

y H

ook

Long

Isla

nd S

ound

Adi

rond

ack

Park

Mas

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ay

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aine

Che

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ake

Bay

Che

s B

ay W

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-10

-5

0

5

10

(g/k

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year

)To

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ition

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0%

50%

100%

Cha

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Due

to C

lear

Ski

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202

0

1999 Coal-Fired Power Plant Impact Percent Change with Clear Skies in 2020

Hg Deposition from U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plants in 1999and Percent Change in Impact in 2020 with Clear Skies

Page 64: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Lake

Erie

Lake

Mic

higa

n

Lake

Sup

erio

r

Lake

Hur

on

Lake

Ont

ario

Lk C

ham

plai

n

Lake

Tah

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Puge

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nd

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a Ve

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Mob

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ay

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mot

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ave

NP

Sand

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ook

Long

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aine

Che

sape

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Bay

Che

s B

ay W

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-10

-5

0

5

10

(g/k

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year

)To

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ition

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-100%

-50%

0%

50%

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Cha

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Due

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QR

/Tra

ding

in 2

020

1999 Coal-Fired Power Plant Impact Percent Change with IAQR/Trading in 2020

Hg Deposition from U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plants in 1999and Percent Change in Impact in 2020 with IAQR/Trading Scenario

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Results forMammoth CaveNational Park

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Top 25 Contributors to Hg Deposition to Mammoth Cave National Park

Gallatin Johnsonville

LWD Kingston

Sumner County Incin. Paradise

Rockport Widows Creek Bowen GorgasJerritt Canyon Gaston Colbert Bull Run Miller Olin Corp.Env. Waste ReductionSt. Joseph's Hospital Gibson Scherer ColemanMonticello Clifty Creek Ghent Joppa

TN TN

KY TN

TN KY

IN AL GA AL NV AL AL TN AL TN TN FL IN GA KY TX IN KY IL

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Cumulative Fraction of Hg Deposition

0

5

10

15

20

25R

ank

coal-fired elec genother fuel combustionwaste incinerationmetallurgicalmanufacturing/other

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Atmospheric Deposition Flux to Mammoth Cave National Park from Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions Sources in the U.S. and Canada

Page 70: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Results forChesapeake Bay

Page 71: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•
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Phoenix ServicesBrandon Shores

Stericycle Inc. Morgantown

Chalk PointNASA Incinerator

H.A. WagnerNorfolk Navy Yard

Hampton/NASA Incin.Chesapeake Energy Ctr.Chesterfield Yorktown

INDIAN RIVER Roxboro

BALTIMORE RESCO Mt. Storm Homer City Keystone BMWNC

Possum Point Montour

Phoenix ServicesBelews CreekHarrisburg Incin.Harford Co. Incin.

MD MD

MD MD

MD VA MD VA VA VA VA VA DE NC MD WV PA PA NC VA PA MD NC PA MD

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Cumulative Fraction of Hg Deposition

0

5

10

15

20

25R

ank

coal-fired elec genother fuel combustionwaste incinerationmetallurgicalmanufacturing/other

Top 25 Contributors to 1999 Hg Deposition Directly to the Chesapeake Bay

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Atmospheric Deposition Flux to the Chesapeake Bay from Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions Sources in the U.S. and Canada

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Atmospheric Deposition Flux to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed from Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions Sources in the U.S. and Canada

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model evaluation

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EmissionsInventories

MeteorologicalData

Scientific understanding ofphase partitioning, atmospheric chemistry, and deposition processes

Ambient data for comprehensive model evaluation and improvement

What do atmospheric mercury models need?

77

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• Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) is great, but:• also need RGM, Hg(p), and Hg(0) concentrations• also need data above the surface (e.g., from aircraft)• also need source-impacted sites (not just background)

ambient data for model evaluation

• what is RGM? what is Hg(p)?• accurate info for known reactions? • do we know all significant reactions?• natural emissions, re-emissions?

scientific understanding

• precipitation not well characterizedmeteorological data

• need all sources• accurately divided into different Hg forms• U.S. 1996, 1999, 2003 / CAN 1995, 2000, 2005• temporal variations (e.g. shut downs)

emissions inventories

some challenges facing mercury modeling

78

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0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60 60 - 120 120 - 250distance range from source (km)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100hy

poth

etic

al 1

kg/

day

sour

cede

posi

tion

flux

(ug/

m2-

yr) f

or

Hg(II) emitHg(p) emit

Hg(0) emit

Logarithmic

Why is emissions speciation information critical?

79Hypothesized rapid reduction of Hg(II) in plumes? If true, then dramatic impact on modeling results…

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• Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) is great, but:• also need RGM, Hg(p), and Hg(0) concentrations• also need data above the surface (e.g., from aircraft)• also need source-impacted sites (not just background)

ambient data for model evaluation

• what is RGM? what is Hg(p)?• accurate info for known reactions? • do we know all significant reactions?• natural emissions, re-emissions?

scientific understanding

• precipitation not well characterizedmeteorological data

• need all sources• accurately divided into different Hg forms• U.S. 1996, 1999, 2003 / CAN 1995, 2000, 2005• temporal variations (e.g. shut downs)

emissions inventories

some challenges facing mercury modeling

80

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• Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) is great, but:• also need RGM, Hg(p), and Hg(0) concentrations• also need data above the surface (e.g., from aircraft)• also need source-impacted sites (not just background)

ambient data for model evaluation

• what is RGM? what is Hg(p)?• accurate info for known reactions? • do we know all significant reactions?• natural emissions, re-emissions?

scientific understanding

• precipitation not well characterizedmeteorological data

• need all sources• accurately divided into different Hg forms• U.S. 1996, 1999, 2003 / CAN 1995, 2000, 2005• temporal variations (e.g. shut downs)

emissions inventories

some challenges facing mercury modeling

81

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GAS PHASE REACTIONS

AQUEOUS PHASE REACTIONS

ReferenceUnitsRateReaction

Xiao et al. (1994); Bullock and Brehme (2002)

(sec)-1 (maximum)6.0E-7Hg+2 + h<→ Hg0

eqlbrm: Seigneur et al. (1998)

rate: Bullock & Brehme (2002).

liters/gram;t = 1/hour

9.0E+2Hg(II) ↔ Hg(II) (soot)

Lin and Pehkonen(1998)(molar-sec)-12.0E+6Hg0 + OCl-1 → Hg+2

Lin and Pehkonen(1998)(molar-sec)-12.1E+6Hg0 + HOCl → Hg+2

Gardfeldt & Jonnson (2003)(molar-sec)-1~ 0Hg(II) + HO2C→ Hg0

Van Loon et al. (2002)T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1

[T = temperature (K)]HgSO3 → Hg0

Lin and Pehkonen(1997)(molar-sec)-12.0E+9Hg0 + OHC→ Hg+2

Munthe (1992)(molar-sec)-14.7E+7Hg0 + O3 → Hg+2

Sommar et al. (2001)cm3/molec-sec8.7E-14Hg0 +OHC→ Hg(p)

Calhoun and Prestbo (2001)cm3/molec-sec4.0E-18Hg0 + Cl2 → HgCl2

Tokos et al. (1998) (upper limit based on experiments)

cm3/molec-sec8.5E-19Hg0 + H2O2 → Hg(p)

Hall and Bloom (1993)cm3/molec-sec1.0E-19Hg0 + HCl → HgCl2

Hall (1995)cm3/molec-sec3.0E-20Hg0 + O3 → Hg(p)

Atmospheric Chemical Reaction Scheme for Mercury

82

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• Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) is great, but:• also need RGM, Hg(p), and Hg(0) concentrations• also need data above the surface (e.g., from aircraft)• also need source-impacted sites (not just background)

ambient data for model evaluation

• what is RGM? what is Hg(p)?• accurate info for known reactions? • do we know all significant reactions?• natural emissions, re-emissions?

scientific understanding

• precipitation not well characterizedmeteorological data

• need all sources• accurately divided into different Hg forms• U.S. 1996, 1999, 2003 / CAN 1995, 2000, 2005• temporal variations (e.g. shut downs)

emissions inventories

some challenges facing mercury modeling

83

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Some Additional Measurement Issues (from a modeler’s perspective)

• Data availability• Simple vs. Complex Measurements

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Some Additional Measurement Issues (from a modeler’s perspective)

• Data availability• Simple vs. Complex Measurements

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Data availabilityA major impediment to evaluating and improving atmospheric Hg models has been the lack of speciated Hg air concentration data

There have been very few measurements to date, and these data are rarely made available in a practical way (timely, complete, etc.)

The data being collected at Piney Reservoir could be extremely helpful!

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Some Additional Measurement Issues (from a modeler’s perspective)

• Data availability• Simple vs. Complex Measurements

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wet depmonitor

Simple vs. Complex Measurements: 1. Wet deposition is a very complicated phenomena...

many ways to get the “wrong” answer –incorrect emissions, incorrect transport, incorrect chemistry, incorrect 3-D precipitation, incorrect wet-deposition algorithms, etc..

ambient air monitor

models need ambient air concentrations first, and then if they can get those right, they can try to do wet deposition...

??

?

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monitor at ground

level

Simple vs. Complex Measurements: 2. Potential complication with ground-level monitors...

(“fumigation”, “filtration”, etc.)...

monitor abovethe canopy

atmospheric phenomena are complex and not well understood;models need “simple” measurements for diagnostic evaluations;ground-level data for rapidly depositing substances (e.g., RGM) hard to interpretelevated platforms might be more useful (at present level of understanding)

?

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Simple vs. Complex measurements - 3. Urban areas:a. Emissions inventory poorly knownb. Meteorology very complex (flow around buildings)c. So, measurements in urban areas not particularly useful

for current large-scale model evaluations

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• Sampling near intense sources?• Must get the fine-scale met “perfect”

Ok, if one wants to develop hypotheses regardingwhether or not this is actually a source of the pollutant (and you can’t do a stack test for some reason!).

Sampling site?

Simple vs. Complex Measurements –4: extreme near-field measurements

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Complex vs. Simple Measurements –5: Need some source impacted measurements

• Major questions regarding plume chemistry and near-field impacts (are there “hot spots”?)

• Most monitoring sites are designed to be “regional background” sites (e.g., most Mercury Deposition Network sites).

• We need some source-impacted sites as well to help resolve near-field questions

• But not too close – maybe 20-30 km is ideal (?)

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EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

93

Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions Inventoryand Monitoring Sites for Phase II

(note: only showing largest emitting grid cells)

Mace Head, Ireland grassland shore Rorvik, Sweden

forested shore

Aspvreten, Sweden forested shore

Zingst, Germanysandy shore

Neuglobsow, Germany forested area

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EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

94

Neuglobsow

Zingst

AspvretenRorvik

Mace Head

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EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

95

Total Gaseous Mercury (ng/m3) at Neuglobsow: June 26 – July 6, 1995

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 MEASURED

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 MSCE

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 CMAQ

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 GRAHM

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 EMAP

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 DEHM

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 ADOM

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 HYSPLIT

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EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

96

Total Particulate Mercury (pg/m3) at Neuglobsow, Nov 1-14, 1999

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150MEASURED

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150CMAQ

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150GRAHM

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150EMAP

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150DEHM

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150ADOM

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150HYSPLIT

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150MSCE

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wet depmonitor

Simple vs. Complex Measurements: 1. Wet deposition is a very complicated phenomena...

many ways to get the “wrong” answer –incorrect emissions, incorrect transport, incorrect chemistry, incorrect 3-D precipitation, incorrect wet-deposition algorithms, etc..

ambient air monitor

models need ambient air concentrations first, and then if they can get those right, they can try to do wet deposition...

??

?

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speciated ambient concentration data is scarcefew measurement sites at ground levelvery few measurements aloft

collaboration between measurement and modeling community is key

measurers need modelers to help interpret datamodelers need measurements to evaluate models

therefore, atmospheric mercury models have not really been comprehensively evaluated yet

we don’t really know how good or bad they are

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model intercomparison

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0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

for 1

kg/

day

sour

ceug

/m2-

year

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: HYSPLIT (Nebraska)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

for 1

kg/

day

sour

ceug

/m2-

year

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Kansas City)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

for 1

kg/

day

sour

ceug

/m2-

year

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Tampa)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

for 1

kg/

day

sour

ceug

/m2-

year

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Phoenix)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000fo

r 1 k

g/da

y so

urce

ug/m

2-ye

ar

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Indianapolis)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

HYSPLIT 1996

ISC: 1990-1994

Different Time Periods and Locations, but Similar Results

100

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Erie Ontario Michigan Huron Superior0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Dep

ositi

on (u

g/m

2-ye

ar) HYSPLIT

CMAQ

Model-estimated U.S. utility atmospheric mercury deposition contribution to the Great Lakes: HYSPLIT-Hg (1996 meteorology, 1999 emissions) vs. CMAQ-HG (2001 meteorology, 2001 emissions).

101

Page 102: Simulating the Atmospheric Fate and Transport of Mercury ... · 2• →Hg0 T*e((31.971*T)-12595.0)/T) sec-1 Van Loon et al. (2002) [T = temperature (K)] HgSO3 →Hg0 Hg0 + OH•

Erie Ontario Michigan Huron Superior0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Dep

ositi

on (u

g/m

2-ye

ar) HYSPLIT

25% added to CMAQCMAQ

Model-estimated U.S. utility atmospheric mercury deposition contribution to the Great Lakes: HYSPLIT-Hg (1996 meteorology, 1999 emissions) vs. CMAQ-Hg (2001 meteorology, 2001 emissions).

This figure also shows an added component of the CMAQ-Hg estimates -- corresponding to 30% of the CMAQ-Hg results – in an attempt to adjust the CMAQ-Hg results to account for the deposition underprediction found in the CMAQ-Hg model evaluation.

102

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MANY THANKS TO:

Gary Foley, J. David Mobley, Elsie Sunderland, Chris Knightes (EPA); Panos Georgopolous and Sheng-Wei Wang (EOSHI Rutgers Univ); John McDonald (IJC): collaboration on multimedia Hg modeling

David Schmeltz, Gary Lear, John Schakenbach, Scott Hedges, Rey Forte (EPA): collaboration on Hg models and /measurements, including new EPA-NOAA Hg monitoring site at Beltsville, MD.

David Ruple, Mark Woodrey (Grand Bay NERR), Susan White , Gary Matlock, Russell Callender, Jawed Hameedi (NOAA), and Durwin Carter (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service): collaboration at NOAA Grand Bay NERR atmospheric monitoring site

Anne Pope and colleagues (EPA): U.S. mercury emissions inventory

David Niemi, Dominique Ratte, Marc Deslauriers (Environment Canada): Canadian mercury emissions inventory data

Mark Castro (Univ. Md, Frostburg), Fabien Laurier (Univ Md Ches Biol Lab), Rob Mason (Univ CT), Laurier Poissant (Envr Can): ambient Hg data for model evaluation

Roland Draxler, Glenn Rolph, Rick Artz (NOAA): HYSPLIT model and met data

Steve Brooks, Winston Luke, Paul Kelley (NOAA) : ambient Hg data