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Simulating future sustainable city: Case study with Tokyo, Japan Hajime SEYA [email protected] Assistant Professor, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University National Workshop on Sustainable Urban and industry Development in Mongolia Ulaanbaatar, 20-21 August 2014 Ulaanbaatar Hotel, Ulaanbaatar

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Simulating future sustainable city: Case study with Tokyo, Japan

Hajime SEYA

[email protected]

Assistant Professor,

Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation,

Hiroshima University

National Workshop on

Sustainable Urban and industry Development in Mongolia

Ulaanbaatar, 20-21 August 2014 Ulaanbaatar Hotel, Ulaanbaatar

Today, I would like to show you

some future urban-land use scenarios of Tokyo

with considering tradeoffs & co-benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies,

And discuss the possible implications for the urban planning in the UB city.

Before showing future scenarios of the Tokyo,

Let’s take a look at past urban growth of the Tokyo metropolitan area.

2

1914

1975

Urban expansion and agricultural contraction of paddy & crop lands.

1888

1946

Urbanization in the Tokyo metropolitan area

Built-up area Industry area settlement Airport paddy crop land forest other water

1888 to 1975 (Estimated from the GSI Regional Planning Atlas)

Tokyo Yokohama

Urbanization in the Tokyo metropolitan area

4

Around 1890, Tokyo (Just after it had renamed from Edo)

1889, Yokohama (Japan was opened from Yokohama)

1917, Nihonbashi, Tokyo (After westernization)

Tokyo station was completed in 1914

Urbanization in the Tokyo metropolitan area

5

The traffic jam in 1960s (MLIT) http://www.mlit.go.jp/crd/tosiko/zpt/pdf/zenkokupt_gaiyouban_english.pdf

1981, Tama New Town

Dwellings were sold at the same time to

people for similar age groups. Biased age composition: “Old new town”

UN city planned satellite cities

Buyandalai et al.(2013) urban

development issues and challenges

Period of high economic growth

(1960s~1970s)

MLIT “Japan’s sustainable transportation strategy”

Careful design is needed

Depopulation and aging in Japan (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, MLIT)

6

USA

UK

UK

USA

JAPAN

JAPAN

MLIT “Japan’s sustainable transportation strategy”

Trend of population (1950=1) Trend of Ratio of elderly people

(65>=)

Population density

in1990

Data: Population census

Tokyo

depopulation

in the suburban areas

Data: Population census

Population density

in 2005

Land use change in the Tokyo metropolitan area in the past 40 years

Correlation between urban land cover change and cropland land cover change (1972~2011)

Urban expansion in the Tokyo metropolitan area 1972 to 2011

(Classification of Landsat imagery

using the subspace method)

1997 1972

2001 2011

9

Bagan and Yamagata, 2014

10 Buyandalai et al.(2013) urban

development issues and challenges

In Mongolia

Development of train networks in Tokyo

11

(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, MLIT)

MLIT “Japan’s sustainable transportation strategy”

2000s 1950s

Train stations & land prices

12 Changes in de-trended land prices Tsutsumi and Seya (2008) PIRS.

Tsukuba express line Started operation in 2005.

Officially assessed land prices

Are published once in a year.

Spatial interpolation

Land use transport interaction

• Wegener (2004): OVERVIEW OF LAND-USE TRANSPORT MODELS. 13

spatially explicit Land-use model

Indirect utility

(Zonal attractiveness)

Location choice

Floor space

demand Floor space supply

Land market

Income

Rent

House hold

Developer

Land supply

Landlord

Land demand

Floor market

We have modeled economic behaviors of

household, landlord and housing developer.

PV supply-/energy demand

Energy model

Profit maximization

Profit maximization

Utility maximization

Commuting

cost

15

Sustainable urban form in the future

Past

Current

MLIT “Japan’s sustainable transportation strategy”

(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, MLIT)

Future

Compact

Dispersion

Business as usual: BAU

?

About half of Japanese

City master plan mentions

Compact city ideas in UB city

16

New city center/sub center to decentralize urban

centralization, Ulaanbaatar city

Sources: Ulaanbaatar city Master Plan 2030, 2012

JICA

One of the merits of compact urban form

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Priva

te T

rans

port

Ene

rgy

Use

per

Cap

ita(

MJ)

Urban Density(person/ha)

Sacramento

Los Angeles

Chicago

Toronto

Frankfurt

Brussels

Singapore

Tokyo

Bangkok Seoul Hong

KongLondon

Newman & Kenworthy

Sustainability and cities:

overcoming automobile

dependence, 1999.

Cities in USA

Cities in Asia

Cities in Europe

and Japan

18

Land-use scenario in Tokyo for 2050

Dispersion scenario (BAU)

Compact scenario

- Subsidized by 1200$ /y if moving to near urban centers (Toyama city example) (Zones within 500 meter from city centers)

Black: city centers

Sky blue: subsidized zones

Current urban area

Total number of each

7 types of households

are statistically projected

Consider the

de-population & aging

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Floor / Land (dispersion) Floor / Land (compact)

Fraction of land for forest (dispersion) Fraction of land for forest (compact)

Vacant-lands are re-vegetated Vacant-lands are re-vegetated

Compact city - BAU

Results: Difference in nighttime surface temperature

Surface temp increases/decreases associated with the changes in urban area and AH.

Compact city → - 0.1˚C throughout Tokyo metropolitan area

Vacant areas are re-vegetated

Green area expansion may be

useful policy to reduce cooling demand

In summer season (in case of Tokyo).

Various assessment criteria is needed.

(e.g., ecosystem service)

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• Demand exceeds PV-supply around the train stations and the center of Tokyo, while PV-supply may exceed demand for all other zones in total (can be calculated hour to hour)

• For the introduction of large PV plants, low-rent land in suburban regions, with high demand potential should be detected.

• Implication[1]: Spatially detailed evaluation of demand and PV-supply potential and data accumulation for that is needed.

Spatial distribution of electricity supply from PV as the ratio to demand in August

(left: BAU, right: compact city)

・ PV panels are installed to the rooftops of all detached houses. (unrealistic under the current technology, but estimation itself may be useful)

22

The Munich Re 2002 (Reinsurance company)

1. Tokyo/Yokohama 710 2. San Francisco 167 3. Los Angeles 100 4. Osaka/Kobe/Kyoto 92 5. ……

Natural hazard risk index

23

Japanese hazard map (inundation depth) national land numerical information download service

24

Future urban scenario in Tokyo for 2050

Dispersion scenario (BAU)

Compact scenario

Cobenefit scenario + adaptation perspective

- Subsidized by 1200$ /y if moving to near urban centers (Zones within 500 m from city centers)

Black: city centers

Sky blue: subsidized zones

Current urban area

Total number of each

7 types of households

are statistically projected

© MLIT

- Subsidized if moving to near city centers, if whose flood risk is not too high

(< 5m)

25

Compact - Dispersion Combined - Dispersion

Differences in

population

projection

Expected economic risk reduction: –23.2B$

Number

Implications [2]

• The projected mitigation of expected flood loss due to the combined scenarios is –23.2B$. This result suggests that just a careful selection of subsidized area may lead to fairly big differences in expected loss.

• Currently, many Japanese urban master plan mentions the importance of compact city as a future vision of the cities.

• Lacks of the co-benefit view points (especially with natural disaster risk).

26

Considering technological change

• Land-use scenarios: – BAU: dispersed city – Mitigation: Compact city – Adaptation: Flood disaster prevention – Mitigation + Adaptation

• Technological innovation scenarios: Introduction of photovoltaic (PV) panels and Electric vehicles (EVs)

27

© Nissan Motor Co., Ltd.

Do nothing Mitigation (compact)

+ Adaptation (land use regulation by 50% in high flooding risk zones)

Land-use scenarios

BAU :Dispersed city

Mitigation ( Mit. ) : Compact city

+ Climate change adaptation : + Flood risk prevention ( Ad. + )

BAU Mit.

Mit. Ad.

・ Cars are replaced by EVs ・ PV panels are installed to the rooftops of all detached houses

We do not discuss technological aspects in this study.

©MLIT

©MLIT

Photovoltaic (PV) panels

Electric vehicles (EVs) Assumptions

Estimates CO2 emissions.

CO2 emission rate of EVs

Transportation Mode

CO2 Emissions (gCO2/km)

Based on estimated CO2 emission factor for 2050b)

Gasoline car1) 136.1

EV (Lief)2) 74.4

EV (i-MiEV)3) 66.0

1) Fuel consumption: 17.0km/L (MLIT, 2012) 2) AC power consumption rate: 124Wh/km (Nissan, 2012) 3) AC power consumption rate: 110Wh/km (Mitsubishi, 2012) (JC08 mode) a) Source: The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan (2012) b) Estimated in this study

Compared with gasoline cars, EVs could make CO2 emissions half. CO2 emissions cannot reduced so much if thermal power will be used in 2050.

28

Depends on the supply mix

Total CO2 emission under different scenarios for the year 2050

68

78

88

98

108

118

128

138

148

Pre

sen

t

BA

U-0

BA

U-1

00

BA

U-5

0

BA

U-3

0

BA

U-2

0

Mit

.-0

Mit

.-1

00

Mit

.-5

0

Mit

.-3

0

Mit

.-2

0

Mit

.+A

d.-

0

Mit

.+A

d.-

10

0

Mit

.+A

d.-

50

Mit

.+A

d.-

30

Mit

.+A

d.-

20C

O2

em

issi

on

(M

tCO

2/y

ear

)

Indirect emission Direct emission

Dispersed city (BAU)

with PVs & EVs

• (1) Without introduction of PVs & EVs

: Mitigation and adaptation could create synergy effect.

• (2) With introduction of PVs & EVs

: Mitigation and adaptation could be trade-off.

(Decrease of Detached house → Decrease of PVs)

Mitigation (compact) Adaptation (land use regulation)

with PVs & EVs

with PVs & EVs

EVs

100% 50

100%

50% PVs

30 20

Direct emission

Indirect emission

29

• When we discuss the urban planning, thinking about possible co-benefits and trade offs, which is sometimes ignored, is important.

• Examples that we showed are:

– [1] Greening & nighttime temperature decrease;

– [2] Compact city & Flood risk reduction;

– [3] Compact city & Land use regulation & PV/EV.

• It can be quantified by using urban models.

• Effective data accumulation strategies for useful quantity urban analyses is fairly important.

30

Recommendation

References • Hasi Bagan, Yoshiki Yamagata (2014) Land-cover change analysis in 50 global cities by using a

combination of Landsat data and analysis of grid cells. Environmental Research Letters, in print.

• Morito Tsutsumi and Hajime Seya (2008) Measuring the impact of large-scale transportation project on land price using spatial statistical models, Papers in Regional Science, 87 (3), 385–401.

• Yoshiki Yamagata, Hajime Seya and Kumiko Nakamichi (2013) Creation of future urban environmental scenarios using a geographically explicit land-use model: a case study of Tokyo, Annals of GIS, 19 (3), 153–168.

• Yoshiki Yamagata and Hajime Seya (2013) Simulating a future smart city: An integrated land use-energy model, Applied Energy, 112, 1466–1474.

• Kumiko Nakamichi, Yoshiki Yamagata and Hajime Seya (2013) CO2 emissions evaluation considering introduction of EVs and PVs under Land-use scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation–Focusing on the change of emission factor after the Tohoku earthquake–, Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 10, 1025–1044.

• Yoshiki Yamagata and Hajime Seya (2013) Spatial electricity sharing system for making city more resilient against X-Events, Innovation and Supply Chain Management, 7 (3), 75–82.

• Yoshiki Yamagata and Hajime Seya (2014) Proposal for a local electricity-sharing system: A case study of Yokohama city, Japan, IET Intelligent Transport Systems, in print.

• Sachiho A. Adachi, Fujio Kimura, Hiroyuki Kusaka, Michael G. Duda, Yoshiki Yamagata, Hajime Seya, Kumiko Nakamichi, Toshinori Aoyagi (2014) Moderation of summertime heat-island phenomena via modification of the urban form in the Tokyo metropolitan area, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, in print.

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The Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Tokyo

Nagoya

Osaka

Japan

0 500km

Tokyo metropolitan area Hiroshima

33

Simulating the effects of land use

regulation

i

iAVii

pLL

1

Available area of land

0,, biaii ppp

• Land supply by landlord

• Land use regulation resulting in:

b: before, a: after

Simulate the effects on location choice

Land rent

Supply

function

Demand

function

Area

AV

biL ,

AV

aiL ,

i

aip ,

bip ,

biL ,aiL ,

Potential electricity generation from PV panels

34

KKptpcShHhkWhE A )(/ )(

)(hH A : denotes total (solar) irradiance (kWh/m2/h)

: array conversion efficiency (=10%)

S : installation area (m2)

(land area × building to land ratio ×

possible area of installation on the roof (=0.3) × 1/cos30o)

pc : running efficiency of power conditioner (=.945)

Kpt : temperature correction coefficient (=.9221~1)

K : Other performance ratio(=.89)

From our land-use model

We calculate the value of the electric supply by PVs (kWh).

Assumed parameters are as follows;

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