Upload
himanshushrivastava
View
219
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
1/18
" #$%&'( )*$+( ,-
Churn Analysis
" .*/'$01,$-2 /3 45(6717(
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
2/18
!"#$%&'(#)%"
8912: 3-* ;-6 +- ,$&> 12+ >,61,(7$(> ,- 6(+*0$2709*62A &'(1>( 09(0: -*, -*6 /'-7F 9,,&FGG
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
3/18
+"&,$-#."&)"/ ."& 0.1('1.#)"/ 02'$"
J(;-6( ,12+ $,Q ;6-% 1 9$79'(5(' 1'' ,9( $(6 ,- 121'3@( 12++(5('-& >,61,(7$(> ,- 6(+*0( $,?
M6-% 1 9$79 '(5('A 09*62 $> ,9( %(1>*6( -; 9-< %123 0*>,-%(6> '(15( -5(6 1 >(,,$%( &(6$-+? D,E> *>(+ ,- %(1>*6( 9-< %*09 6(5(2*( 3-* '-->( ,96-*79 0*>,-%(60120(''1,$-2>? D,E> 1'>- *>(+ ,- %(1>*6( ,9( 2*%/(6 -; *>(6> -6 100-*2,> ,91, 0(1>(*>$27 3-*6 &6-+*0,> -6 >(65$0(>? D2 ($,9(6 01>(A 09*62 6(&6(>(2,> ,9( 1,,6$,$-2 61,( -;3-*6 0*>,-%(6 /1>(?
M-6 >*/>06$&,$-2 /1>(+ /*>$2(>>(> 09*62 $> 1 06$,$01' %(,6$0 1> (5(63 0*>,-%(6 3-*'-->( $> '->, 6(R-00*66$27 6(5(2*(?
"> ,9( (C1%&'( $''*>,61,(>A 1 '->, 0*>,-%(6 012 915( 1 9*7( $%&10, -2 3-*6 /-,,-%'$2(? 89$> $> $2(>>(> 915( 100-*2, %1217(6> 12+ 0*>,-%(6 >*00(>>%1217(6> ( K-/ $> ,- +- (5(63,9$27 ,9(3 012 ,- 6(+*0( 09*62? 8- ;*''3*2+(6>,12+ ,9( $%&10, 1 0*>,-%(6 >*00(>> ,(1% 91>A 3-* 2((+ ,- 01'0*'1,( '$;(,$%(
51'*( SP8TU?
.'(1>( 2-,( ,9( 1/-5( (C1%&'( $> 1 >$%&'$;$(+ P8T 01'0*'1,$-2? M((' ;6(( ,- )--7'(V01'0*'1,( '$;(,$%( 51'*(W 12+ 3-*E'' '(162 9-< ,- $20'*+( ,9$27> '$:( =->, -;=*>,-%(6 "0X*$>$,$-2 S=H="U 12+ =->, -; )--+> #-'+ S=H)#U 1> ;$2+ >-%(5(63 0-%&'$01,(+ ,- 01'0*'1,( P8T? 891, /($27 >1$+A 2- %1,,(6 9-< 3-*01'0*'1,( $,A 1 6(+*0,$-2 $2 09*62 ,$'' (X*1,( ,- %1>>$5( $206(1>(> $2 P8T?
!"#$%&!=-%&123 "B) 91> YZZZ 0*>,-%(6> &13$27 [YAZZZG%-2,9A 7$5$27 ,9(% 1 %-2,9'36(-00*66$27 6(5(2*( S\OOU -; [YAZZZAZZZ 12+ 122*1' 6(5(2*(> -; [Y]AZZZAZZZ?D; ,9(3 915( 1 09*62 61,( -; YZ^A ,91, %(12> ,9(3 '->( YZZ 0*>,-%(6>A -6[YZZAZZZ \OO 1 '->> -; [YA]ZZAZZZ ;-6 ,9( 3(16?
!"#$%&!=-%&123 "B) >(''> 1 &6-+*0, ,91, 0->,> [YAZZZG%-2,9 12+ 91> 1 %-2,9'3 09*6261,( -; I ? 89( P8T -; ,9$> &6-+*0, $>F[YAZZZGZ?ZI _ []ZAZZZ
=-%&123 "B) ,9(2 9$6(> 1 0*>,-%(6 >*00(>> %1217(6 09*62 ,- `^A$206(1>$27 ,9( P8T ,-F[YAZZZGZ?Z` _ []IAZZZ
D; ,9(3 915( 12 $2>,1'' /1>( -; YAZZZ 0*>,-%(6>A ,9( 6(+*0,$-2 $2 09*62 (+ P8T ;6-% ,9($6 0*>,-%(6>?
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
4/18
b-< ,91, 3-* *2+(6>,12+ 12+ 9-< $, 012 $%&10, 3-*6 /-,,-% '$2(A'(,E> '--: 1, 9-< ,- 01'0*'1,( 09*62? 89(6( 16( ,?
Y? !"#$%&'( !*"(+81:( 1'' ,9( 0*>,-%(6> 3-* '-->( +*6$27 1 ,$%( ;61%(A >*09 1> 1 %-2,9A 12++$5$+( $, /3 ,9( ,-,1' 2*%/(6 -; 0*>,-%(6> 3-* 91+ 1, ,9( /(7$22$27 -; ,9(
%-2,9? c-* +- 2-, $20'*+( 123 2(< >1'(> ;6-% ,91, %-2,9?
D; 3-*6 -6712$@1,$-2 &6(;(6>A 3-* 012 *>( ,91, >1%( %(,9-+ -2 1 +$;;(6(2,,$%( ;61%( >*09 1> X*16,(6'3 -6 122*1''3?
]? ,'-'+"' !*"(+81:( 1'' 3-*6 %-2,9'3 6(-00*66$27 6(5(2*( S\OOU 1, ,9( /(7$22$27 -; ,9(%-2,9 12+ +$5$+( $, /3 ,9( %-2,9'3 6(-00*66$27 6(5(2*( 3-* '->, ,91, %-2,9%$2*> 123 *&761+(> -6 1++$,$-21' 6(5(2*( ;6-% (C$>,$27 0*>,-%(6 S2(, 2(1'(> $2 ,9( %-2,9 +-2E, 0-*2,U? 89( 6(1>-2 3-* >*/,610, 1++$,$-21' 6(5(2*(;6-% (C$>,$27 0*>,-%(6> $> /(01*>( 3-* , 12+ 1++$,$-21' 6(5(2*( $> 10,*1''3 6(5(2*( 3-* 71$2(+?
"> /(;-6( 3-* 012 09-->( 1 +$;;(6(2, ,$%( ;61%(A >*09 1> X*16,(6'3 -6 122*1'?d*>, 6(%(%/(6 ,91, $; 3-* +-A 3-*E'' 2((+ ,- '--: 1, X*16,(6'3 -6 122*1'6(-00*66$27 6(5(2*(A 2-, %-2,9'3?
D,E> $%&-6,12, ,- 2-,( ,91, 0*>,-%(6 09*62 12+ 6(5(2*( 09*62 16(2E, 1' ,9(
!"#$%&!=-%&123 "B) 91+ IZZ 0*>,-%(6> 1, ,9( /(7$22$27 -; ,9( %-2,9 12+ -2'3 `IZ0*>,-%(6> 1, ,9( (2+ -; ,9( %-2,9? 89($6 09*62 61,( 3-* 10,*1''3 71$2(+ 6(5(2*( ,91,%-2,9f
!"#$%&!
=-%&123 "B) 91> ] &6-+*0, '$2(>F?F IZZZ 0*>,-%(6>A [IZZG%-2,9 &(6 0*>,-%(6 _ []AIZZAZZZ \OO@('&>"&F YZZZ 0*>,-%(6>A [Y]IZG%-2,9 &(6 0*>,-%(6 _ [YA]IZAZZZ \OO89$> 7$5(> ,9(% 1 ,-,1' -; eAZZZ 0*>,-%(6> 12+ [gAhIZAZZZ \OOD2 1 %-2,9A YiZ J1>$0 0*>,-%(6> 12+ ]Z &6(%$*% 0*>,-%(6> 09*62
!"#$%&'( !*"(+SYiZ j ]ZUGeAZZZ _ ]ZZGeAZZZ _ g?gg^,'-'+"' !*"(+SSYiZ a [IZZU j S]Z a [Y]IZUUG[gAhIZAZZZ _S[kZAZZZ j []IAZZZUG[gAhIZAZZZ _ [YYIAZZZG[gAhIZAZZZ _ g?Zh^
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
5/18
>1%(?89( &6-/'(% -6 ,9( &6$0(+$;;(6(20( /(,$-2A $,E> 5(63$%&-6,12, ,- 0'(16'3 0-%%*2$01,( (?
D,E> 1'>- $%&-6,12, ,- 2-,( ,91, 3-* %13 2((+ ,- *>( /-,9 01'0*'1,$-2> 1> 3-* %1217(
3-*6 0*>,-%(6 >*00(>> ,(1%? O(5(2*( 09*62 $> 1 76(1, *2+(6>,12+ ,9( ;$2120$1' 9(1',9 -; 3-*6 0*>,-%(6 /1>(?=*>,-%(6 09*62 $> $%&-6,12, ;-6 >,1;;$27 6(1>-2> 1> 12 (%&'-3(( 012 -2'3 %1217(>- %123 100-*2,> 1, -2( ,$%(?
D2 ,9( (C1%&'(> 1/-5( -5(6+$;;(6(2, ,$%( ;61%(>A ,9(6( $> 1 06$,$01' 015(1, 3-* 2((+ ,- *2+(6>,12+?
D2 ,9( %-2,9'3 01'0*'1,$-2A ,9(6( $> 12 *2+(6'3$27 1>>*%&,$-2 ,91, 2- 0*>,-%(6 01209*62 $2 ,9( ;$6>, %-2,9? 89( 6(1>-2 $> ,91, 3-* &13 ;-6 ,9( %-2,9 *&;6-2,? #- 21&>9-, 1, ,9( /(7$22$27 -; ,9( %-2,9 12+ ,9(2 +$5$+( ,91, /3 ,9( ,-,1'2*%/(6 -; 09*62(+ 0*>,-%(6> ;6-% ,91, %-2,9A 3-* +-2E, 915( ,- 1'(> 09*62$27 $2 ,91, ,$%( &(6$-+?
">>*%$27 ,9( >1%( %-+('A $; ,91, ,9(6( -%( 2(< >1'(> ;6-% ,9( ;$6>, %-2,9 $2 ,9(X*16,(6 ,91, 0-*'+ 09*62 $2 ,9( >(0-2+ -6 ,9$6+ %-2,9 -; ,9( X*16,(6? D; ,9->(09*62> 16( 100$+(2,1''3 $20'*+(+ $2 ,9( 01'0*'1,$-2A ,9(2 ,1,( 09*62?
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
6/18
8- 7(, 16-*2+ ,9$> &6-/'(%A 3-* 915( ,- (C0'*+( 1'' 09*62> ;6-% 2(< >1'(>? D; 3-* +-,91,A 3-* 7(, ,9( 09*62 61,( -; =-9-6, "A ,1'' /1>( 1, ,9( /(7$22$27-; ,9( X*16,(6? 89$> %(,9-+ 7$5(> 3-* ,9( ,6*( 09*62 61,(A ,91, >-%( -; 3-* %13 12+ ,9($6 09*62>+*6$27 ,9( X*16,(6 ,--? d*>, %1:( >*6( 3-* (C&'1$2 ,9$> ,- 3-*6 -&(61,$-2> ,(1%A -6 6(&-6,$27 ;-6 3-*A >- ,9(3 :2-< (C10,'3 ,-%(6> 1,,9( (2+ S6(;(6 ,- ,9$> 1> =-9-6, "UQ YZZ 2(< >1'(> S6(;(6 ,- ,9$> 1> =-9-6, JU?A%+$* BF
H; ,9( kIZ 0*>,-%(6> $2 =-9-6, "A 12-,9(6 IZ 09*62A '(15$27 kZZQ -; ,9( YZZ $2 =-9-6,JA I 09*62A '(15$27 kIQ 12-,9(6 YZZ 2(< >1'(> ,9$> %-2,9 S01'' ,9$> =-9-6, =UA%+$* ;FH; ,9( kZZ 0*>,-%(6> >,$'' $2 =-9-6, "A 12-,9(6 IZ 09*62A '(15$27 iIZQ -; ,9( kI0*>,-%(6> $2 =-9-6, JA I %-6( 09*62A '(15$27 kZQ -; ,9( YZZ 0*>,-%(6> $2 =-9-6, =A I09*62A '(15$27 kI?
89( >*%%163 $>F=-9-6, " l /(7$2> \-2,9 Y ,-%(6>Q (2+> \-2,9 g \-2,9 ] ,-%(6>Q (2+> \-2,9 g ,-%(6>=-9-6, = l J(7$2> \-2,9 g ,-%(6>Q (2+> \-2,9 g ,-%(6>
D; ,-%(6> -2'3 91> iIZ0*>,-%(6> 6(%1$2$27A 7$5$27 1 0*>,-%(6 09*62 61,( -; YIZGYZZZ _ YI^B*6$27 ,91, >1%( ,$%( ;61%(A ,9(6( 1'(>A -;
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
7/18
H2( '1>, ;*2+1%(2,1' 1>&(0, -; 09*62 $> ,91, $, ,-%(6>,17( $2 ,9($6 '$;(030'(? D,E> 5(63 ,3&$01' ,- ;$2+ 0*>,-%(6> */>06$&,$-2 0-%&16(+ ,- 1 ;(< %-2,9> $2? 89$> 01291&&(2 ;-6 1 516$(,3 -; 6(1>-2> >*09 1> &--6 (C&(0,1,$-2 >(,,$27 +*6$27 >1'(>A>*++(2 >9$;, $2 &6$-6$,$(>A &--6 -2/-16+$27 &6-761%A &--6 >*&&-6,A (,0? ">0*>,-%(6> %1,*6(A ,9($6 09*62 61,( ,1/$'$@(? J(01*>( -; ,9$>A $, 012 /(
$%&-6,12, ,- 01'0*'1,( 09*62 ;-6 2(,-%(6> >(&161,( ;6-% -'+(6 0*>,-%(6>A >-3-* +-2E, -5(6(>,$%1,( ,9( >,(1+3 09*62 61,( 12+ *2+(6(>,$%1,( (16'3 >,17( 09*6261,(>?
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
8/18
3".145)"/ 02'$"
b-< ,91, 3-* 915( 1 >-'$+ *2+(6>,12+$27 -; 09*62A ,9( 2(C, >,(& $> ,- '(162 9-< ,-121'3@( $,? 89(6( 16( ] 6(1>-2>F
Y? J(;-6( 3-* ,63 ,- $%&6-5( 3-*6 09*62 61,(A 3-* 2((+ ,- $+(2,$;3 &6-/'(%16(1> >- 3-* 012 ;-0*> 12+ &6$-6$,$@(
]? H20( 3-* $%&'(%(2, &6-761%>A 3-* 2((+ ,- :2-< $; ,9(3E6( , 0-%%-2 %(,9-+>A 0-9-6, 6(&-6,>A 09*62 /3 0*>,-%(6 17(A 12+ 09*62 /30*>,-%(6 /(915$-6?
!%*%($ ,'C%($#
" 0-9-6, 6(&-6, 121'3@(> 516$-*> 0-9-6,> -; 3-*6 0*>,-%(6 /1>( 12+ ,9($6 09*62 61,(-5(6 ,$%(? " 0-9-6, -; 0*>,-%(6> $> ,9( >(7%(2, -; 0*>,-%(6> (+ $2 10(6,1$2 ,$%( ;61%(? " 0-%%-2 0-9-6, *>(+ (+ ,91, %-2,9?
89(6( 16( , ,- *>$27 0-9-6, 6(&-6,>? 89( ;$6>, $> ,91, $, &6-+*0(> 10'(12 2*%/(6A 2-, $2;'*(20(+ /3 2(< 0*>,-%(6 10X*$>$,$-2? M-6 (C1%&'(F
D2 ,9( (C1%&'( 09*62 ;('' ;6-% I^ ,- g?e^? o93 +$+ ,9$> 91&&(2 ,9-*79p D> $,
/(01*>( 2( $, /(01*>( ,9(-'+(6 0*>,-%(6> 915( %1,*6(+ 12+ >,-&&(+ 09*62$27p D> $, >-%(,9$27 ('>(p o$,90-9-6, 6(&-6,$27A $,E> %*09 (1>$(6 ,- *2+(6>,12+ 0-%$27 ;6-%?
89( >(0-2+ /(2(;$, ,- 0-9-6, 6(&-6,$27 $> ,91, $, (21/'(> 3-* ,- $+(2,$;3 &1,,(62> $23-*6 0*>,-%(6 /1>(?
!"#$%&!
=-%&123 "B) 01'0*'1,(> ,9($6 09*62 61,( -5(6 g %-2,9>?A%+$* 6
YZZZ (C$>,$27 0*>,-%(6>Q IZ 09*62Q YZZ 2(< 0*>,-%(6>IZGYZZZ _ I^ 09*62A%+$* BYZIZ 0*>,-%(6> SYZZZ ;6-% %-2,9 Y l IZ 09*62(+ j YZZ 2(,-%(6> SYZIZ l `Z j YZZUQ `Z 09*62Q YZZ 2(< 0*>,-%(6>`ZGYYYZ _ g?e^ 09*62
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
9/18
89( 0916, 1/-5( $> 1 >1%&'( 0-9-6, 6(&-6,? 89( ,91, 0*>,-%(6> - $,E> $%&->>$/'( ,- 09*62UA iY^ -; ,9(% 0-%&'(,('3 3(''-
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
10/18
D,E> 1'>- $%&-6,12, ,- 2-,( 3-* 012 ;$2+ -,9(6 &1,,(62> ,9$> 0-*'+ $2+$01,( ,91, 3-*6 %16:(,$27 ,(1% +$+ 1 76(1, K-/ 7(,,$27 9$79(6 X*1'$,3'(1+>A -6 %13/( 3-*6 >1'(> ,(1% +$+ 1 /(,,(6 K-/ >(,,$27 (C&(0,1,$-2>A -6 3-*60*>,-%(6 ,(1% 715( ,9->( 0*>,-%(6> %-6( 1,,(2,$-2A (,0? o9$'( ,9$> 6(&-6, 012E, ,(''3-* (C10,'3 ( 0-9-6,> +$+ /(,,(6A ,96-*79 $25(>,$27 0-%%-2 106->>
,9->( ,A 3-* %$79, '(162 >-%(,9$27 >*6&6$>$27 ,91, (( $> ,91, 1;,(6 1 0(6,1$2 ,$%( ;61%( 6(,(2,$-261,(> ;'1,,(2 -*, ;-6 (5(63-2(? 89$> $> 1 &6(,,3 0'(16 $2+$01,-6 ,91, 3-*6 0*>,-%(6>, ,91, ,$%( ;61%( 16( %1,*6( 12+ ,(2+ 2-, ,- 09*62F
"> 3-* 012 >((A /-,9 $2 '--:$27 1, ,9( 2*%/(6> 12+ ,96-*79 ,9( 9(1,%1&A 09*62 1;,(6%-2,9 ` $> &6(,,3 '-
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
11/18
D2 ,9( 1/-5( 0916, /(, 3-* &6-/1/'3 2-,$0(+A,9$> &1,,(62 $> %*09 (1>$(6 ,- >(( $2 1 761&9 1> -&&->(+ ,- ,9( 0916,> &6(>(2,(+1/-5(? T$( 5(63 (;;(0,$5(A /*, $, 012 /( +$;;$0*', ,- 121'3@( 1 /*209 -;0-9-6,> 1> 3-*E'' 915( 1 6*22$27 6(&-6, ,91, $27'( &17(? 89(6(;-6(A 3-*012 1'>- >,10: ,9( '$2(>F
b- %1,,(6 ( ,- +$>&'13 1 0-9-6, 6(&-6,A $, $> 1 5(63 &-,-%(6 /1>(? D, 2-, -2'3 %1:(> $, 5(63 (1>3 ,- $2,(6&6(, ,9(
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
12/18
+1,1A /*, $, 1'>- 7$5(> 3-* 5(63 0'(16 12+ 100*61,( $2>$79, $2,- ,9( &(6;-6%120( -;3-*6 0*>,-%(6 /1>(?
02'$" 64 0'-#%7,$ 3/,
"2-,9(6 &-&*'16 ,91, 106->> 1'' 3-*6 0*>,-%(6>A 3-* 915( 1 09*62 61,( -;qe^ +*6$27 ,9($6 ;$6>, %-2,9 -; >(65$0(A 1&&6-C$%1,('3 YZ^ $2 ,9($6 >(0-2+A 12+ /3,9( I,9%-2,9 09*62 >,1/$'$@(> 1, 16-*2+ ]^ -6 '--2> ;-6 121'3@$27 09*62 ,9$> ,- $+(2,$;3 &1,,(62> 106->>1'' 0*>,-%(6>A /3 17(A 6(716+'(>> -; 0-9-6,>? 89( /(2(;$, ,- +-$27 ,9$> $> ,91, $2 10-9-6, 6(&-6,A ,9( %-6( 0-9-6,> 3-* ,610:A ,9( 916+(6 $, $> ,- 121'3@(? D; 3-*E5( /((2$2 /*>$2(>> ;-6 3(16>A 3-* 0-*'+ 915( YZZE> -; 0-9-6,>A >- $%17$2( >,10:$27 ,91, %123'$2(> -6 0916,>f o9(2 3-* 76-*& 0*>,-%(6> ,-7(,9(6 $2 ,9$> 3-* *2+(6>,12+ ,9( 09*62 61,( 1> 3-*60*>,-%(6> 17(? c-* 012 ,9(2 *>( ,9$> +1,1 ,- ,63 12+ 6(>-'5( ,9( &6-/'(%? M-6(C1%&'(A $2 ,9( 0916, 1/-5(A 09*62 $> 9$79 ;-6 ,9( ;$6>, Y]Z +13>A >- 3-* 012 ,63 ,-;-0*> -2 $%&6-5$27 3-*6 -2/-16+$27 &6-0(>>A -6 0'(12$27 *& +-0*%(2,1,$-2A -6,61$2$27 3-*6 -2/-16+$27 (C&(6,> %-6(A 12+ >- -2? D; 3-* ,610: ,9( 6(1>-2 -%(-2( 09*62>A 3-* 012 1'>- '--: 1, ,91, +1,1 K*>, ;-6 0*>,-%(6> ,91, 09*62(+ $2,9( ;$6>, ;(< %-2,9> ,- ,63 12+ *2+(6>,12+ $2A >13 e 12+ Y] %-2,9>? 89$>&6$%16$'3 91&&(2> $; 3-* 915( >(%$R122*1' 12+ 122*1' 0-2,610,> ,91, 16( *& ;-66(2(- 2-,$0( 09*62 >&$:$27 1, -,9(6 ,$%( ;61%(>A $2 (3-*E'' 2((+ ,- $25(>,$71,( ;*6,9(6? J*, 1, '(1>, 3-* +$>0-5(6(+ ,9(6( 1 &6-/'(%>- 2-< 3-* 012 1++6(>> $,?
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
13/18
"2-,9(6 /(2(;$, ,- 06(1,$27 0916,> '$:( ,9$> $> 3-* 012 (1>$'3 %(1>*6( ,9( $%&10, -;3-*6 09*62 6(+*0,$-2 >,61,(7$(>? "'' 3-* 2((+ ,- +- $> 0-%&16( 1'' 0*>,-%(6> /(;-6(1 0*,R-;; +1,( ,- 1'' 0*>,-%(6> &->, 1 0*,R-;; +1,(A 12+ >(( /(,,(6? 8-$''*>,61,( ,9$>A '(,E> 0-2,$2*( &*''$27 ,9( ,96(1+ $2 ,9( (C1%&'( 0916, 1/-5(A 9$79 $2 ,9( ;$6>, ` %-2,9>? P(,E> >(( $,( ;-6 2(< 0*>,-%(6> -2 YGYG]ZY]F
o( (+ /(;-6(YGYG]ZY] S ,9( +1,( ,9( 2(< +-0*%(2,1,$-2 >$,( ,9( 09*62 61,( -; 1'' 0*>,-%(6> (+ ,9( 2($,(? "> 3-* 012 >((A %-2,9> Y 12+ ] >9- ,91, 3-*6 $%&6-5(++-0*%(2,1,$-2 91> 9('&(+ &6(5(2, >-%( 09*62 $2 ,9( ;$6>, ;(< %-2,9>A /*, 2-, 1''?#(($27 +1,1 '$:( ,9$> ( 7-$27 -2 $2 %-2,9> Y 12+ ]A>*09 1> +$;;$0*',3 +*6$27 >(,R*&A ,91, $> 01*>$27 09*62? c-* 012 ,9(2 +$7 +((&(6 12+$25(>,$71,( ;*6,9(6?
"2-,9(6 ,9$27 -; 2-,( -2 ,9( 0916, $> ,91, ,9( /'*( /16> >,-& 1;,(6 h %-2,9>? 89(6(1>-2 $> f "2-,9(6 $%&-6,12, $%&'$01,$-2 -; ,9$> $> ,91, 3-*6 >1%&'(>$@(> ;-6 ,9( /'*( '$2(>A (>&(0$1''3 $2 %-2,9> e 12+ hA 16( 7-$27 ,- /( 5(63 >%1''A 1>3-*E6( /1>$01''3 '--:$27 1, 1 >$27'( %-2,9 -6 ,$@(> ;-6 (109 /16 $2 ,9( 0916, >- &(-&'( 6(1+$27 $, 16( %1+(
1- 2((+ ,-121'3@( 09*62 /3 0*>,-%(6 /(915$-6? o91, ,9$> %(12> $> 3-* 2((+ ,- '--: 1,0*>,-%(6> ( 1 0(6,1$2 ;(1,*6( -6 0-%&'(,( 1 0(6,1$2 10,$-2 12+ +(,(6%$2( $,E>$%&10, -2 09*62? 89(6( 16( %123 /(2(;$,> ,- &(6;-6%$27 ,9$> :$2+ -; 121'3>$>F
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
14/18
.6-+*0, %13 +(0$+( ,- ;-0*> -2 +(5('-&$27 12+ $%&6-5$27 ;(1,*6(> ,91,6(,1$2 0*>,-%(6>
"',(621,$5('3A 3-*6 &6-+*0, ,(1% %13 +$7 $2,- 915( 19$79 09*62 61,( ,- +(,(6%$2( $; ,9(3 012 ;$C ,9( $>>*(
c-*6 0*>,-%(6 ,(1% 0-*'+ ,91, 6(,1$2 0*>,-%(6> c-* 012 *>( ,9$> +1,1 ,- +(5('-& 1 0*>,-%(6 (2717(%(2, >0-6(
89( 6(&-6,> 3-* 2((+ ,- 06(1,( 16( >$%&'(? 89( ,$%( 0-2>*%$27 &16, $> +(&(2+(2,-2 9-< 7612*'16 3-* 7(,? M-6 (C1%&'(A $; 3-* ,610: K*>, 100(>>$27 12 1&& 12+ $,E>$%&10, -2 09*62A 3-* $2 12 1&&A -6 0-%/$21,$-2> -; /*,,-2 0'$0:>A12+ >- -2? 81': (( $; ,9(3 16( 1/'( ,- 7(, ,9$> +1,1 ;-63-* -6 $; 3-* 2((+ ,- *>( >-;,$72(+ ,- ,610: *>(6 /(915$-6? D; 3-* 16( 1/'( ,-7(, ,91, 7612*'16A $, $> ,12+$27 -;
'(1+ ,- 6(,(2,$-2 12+ 09*62?
H20( 3-* +(0$+( /*$'+$27 3-*6 6(&-6,> ,- >(( 09*62? M-6 (C1%&'(F
89( 0916, $> (109 '$2( 6(&6(>(2,> 0*>,-%(6> >(+ 1 ;(1,*6(Sr -6 c $2 ,9$> 01>(U -6 0-%&'(,(+ >-%( 10,$-2 $2 ,9( ;(1,*6( S;-6 (C1%&'( 0'$0:$27 1
/*,,-2U +*6$27 ,9( %-2,9 $2 X*(>,$-2A 12+ 13 -; ,9( 0*>,-%(6> >(+ M(1,*6( r $2 \1609 -;]ZY]A ,9($6 09*62 61,( ,91, %-2,9 `^? 8- 06(1,( 1 0916, '$:( ,9$>A D 6(0-%%(2+3-* *>( (C0(' 1> $,E> (1>3 ,- >(7%(2, 3-*6 0*>,-%(6> $2,- >(7%(2,> /1>(+ -2 ,9($6/(915$-6 12+ ,9(2 *>$27 ,9( 0*>,-%(6 09*62 ;-6%*'1 &6(>(2,(+ (16'$(6 $2 ,9$> 7*$+(A3-* 012 01'0*'1,( ,9( 09*62 61,( ;-6 ,9->( >(7%(2,> -5(6 ,$%(?
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
15/18
o9(2 3-* '--: 1, ,9( 0916, 1/-5(A g 10,$5$,$(> K*%& -*, 1> 915$27 0-2>$>,(2,'3 '-2E, 1' 6('1,( ,-01*>1,$-2F
8- %1:( >*6( 3-* +-2E, ;1'' $2,- ,9( >1%( ,61& 1> ,9( +-0,-6> $2 ,9( (C1%&'( 1/-5(A( 10,$-2> ,6*'3 01*>( 1 6(+*0,$-2 $209*62 -6 2-,? 89( ;$6>, >,(& ,- +-$27 >- $> 0-%&16$27 ,9( 09*62 61,(> 1/-5( ,-%(6> ( ,9->( ;(1,*6(>A 12+ F
D2 ,9( 0916, 1/-5(A 3-* 012 (1>$'3 >(( ,91, 0*>,-%(6> (+ /*,,-2 Y -2 ;(1,*6( rSJYrU 12+ /*,,-2 ] -2 ;(1,*6( c SJ]cU 91+ 5(63 '-< 09*62 61,(>A ,-%(6> ( ,91,/*,,-2 1'>- 91+ 1 '-< 09*62 61,(? 89$> %(12> /*,,-2 g -2 ;(1,*6( c +-(>2E, 6(1''3$%&10, 09*62A 9-(1>( S=LBU? 89$> '(1+ +-0,-6> ,- /('$(5( ,91, LO8 &6-,(0,(+ 171$2>,=LB? P1,(6 6(>(1609 ;-*2+ ,9$> 2E, ,9( 01>( 1, 1'' /(01*>( -0$-R(0-2-%$0 76-*&> 12+ ,9(6(;-6( 91+ /(,,(6+$(,> 12+ (C(60$>( 91/$,>A ,*+3 9(6(F9,,&FGG(2?1,$-2U?
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
16/18
09*62 -5(6 ,9( 2(C, ;(< %-2,9>A -6 K*>, $2 ,9( %-2,9 ,9( /*,,-2 *>(+? M-6(C1%&'(A %13/( ,9->( /*,,-2> 16( >(,R*& 6('1,(+ 12+ 0*>,-%(6> *& -5(6,9( 2(C, ;(< %-2,9>? H6 %13/( ,9(>( /*,,-2> 16( 616('3 *>(+A >- (( ,91, 09*62 ;-6 0*>,-%(6> ( J*,,-2 Y$2 M(1,*6( r 915( 1 5(63 '-< 09*62 61,( $2 ,9( %-2,9 ,9(3 *>( ,9( ;(1,*6( S%-2,9 ZUA12+ ,9(3 0-2,$2*( ,- 915( 1 '-< 09*62 61,( -5(6 ,9( 2(C, g %-2,9>? o9(6(1>0*>,-%(6> ( J*,,-2 ] $2 M(1,*6( c 915( 1 '-< 09*62 61,( $2 %-2,9 ZA /*, $,>9--,> *& 1;,(6 ,91,? 89(>( 16( &6(,,3 7--+ $2+$01,-6> ,91, 7(,,$27 0*>,-%(6> ,- *>(JYr >9-*'+ +(06(1>( 09*62A 7(,,$27 0*>,-%(6> ,- *>( J]c ,? 8-
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
17/18
t>$27 ,9( 6(&-6,> 12+ &6-0(>>(> 1/-5( >9-*'+ 1''-< 3-* ,- +(,(6%$2(A $%&'( *>(6 /(915$-6A '$:( 0'$0:$27 1 /*,,-2 -6 100(>>$27 1 ;(1,*6(A 3-* >9-*'+0-2>$+(6 121'3@$27F
D@E#l o91, :$2+ -; :(3 &(6;-6%120( $2+$01,-6> 012 3-* *>(p M-6 (C1%&'(A $;
3-*E6( 1 6(06*$,$27 &'1,;-6%A 3-* >9-*'+ ;$7*6( -*, $; 915$27 YZ -&(26(X*$>$,$-2> $2 ,9( >3>,(% %(12> '-$,$-2>Q $; 3-*E6( 1/'-77$27 &'1,;-6% 3-* >9-*'+ '--: 121'3@( ;6(X*(203 -; /'-7 &->,> -6 ,-,1'/'-7 &->,> ;-6 ,9( '$;( -; 1 0*>,-%(6Q 12+ >- -2?
@=$$'(+# l -; *>17( 012 6(+*0( 09*62p M-6 (C1%&'(A +- &(-&'(( M(1,*6( Y 12+ M(1,*6( ] 915( 1 '-< 09*62 61,(p o91, 1/-*,0*>,-%(6> , IZ 10,$-2> $2 1 %-2,9 -6 100(>> `j;(1,*6(> $2 1 %-2,9p o91, 1/-*, 0*>,-%(6> *&&-6, %-6( ,912-20( $2 ,9( Y>,%-2,9p H6 %-6( ,912 YZ ,$%(> ,-,1'p
F&CG%H'' 12+G-6 -2/-16+$27&6-0(>>A 3-* >9-*'+ +(,(6%$2( 09*62 /3 (%&'-3((? c-* >9-*'+ 1'>- +$>0-5(6,9( $%&10, -2 09*62 /3 516$-*> /(915$-6>A >*09 1> ,$%( /(,, &-$2, -; 0-2,10, ,-%(6A -6 '(27,9 -; ,$%( /(,A -6 >*/K(0, %1,,(6 0-5(6(+ -2 01''>A (,0?
o9$'( ,9->( 16( (C1%&'(>A 2-< ,91, 3-* :2-< 9-< ,- >'$0( 12+ +$0( 09*62 +1,1A K*>,>,16, (C&'-6$27 12+ >((
8/10/2019 Simple Guide to Churn Analysis
18/18
:)".1 ;2%'/2#-
";,(6 0-%&'(,$27 3-*6 121'3>$>A 9-&(;*''3 3-*E'' :2-< ,$%( ,- >,16, &6-%-,$27 ,9( *>(6 /(915$-6 12+ (%&'-3(( /(915$-6,91, ( $2R0-2,(C, %(>>17$27 ,- /(,,(6 &6-%-,(0*>,-%(6 /(915$-6 ,91, 6(+*0(> 09*62? \13/( 3-* 012 $20(2, 3-*6 0*>,-%(6 ,(1%,- &6-%-,( 0(6,1$2 ;(1,*6(> 12+ 1&&'$01,$-2> ,91, $(6 ,- *>(? c-*6%16:(,$27 ,(1% 0-*'+ 06(1,( 0-''1,(61' ,- &6-%-,( ,9->( ;(1,*6(>A 12+ >- -2? b-&->>$/$'$,$(> ,- 6(+*0$27 $,?
b- %1,,(6 ,61,(7$(> 3-* 09-->(A $,E> $%&-6,12, ,- %(1>*6( ,9($6 $%&10,? #-A 1>3-* 6-'' -*, 3-*6 &'12A %1:( >*6( 3-* 915( 6(&-6,> 6(1+3 ,- 7- ,91, ,-%(6> ,91, *>( 10(6,1$2 ;(1,*6( 12+ 9-< $, 76- -5(6 ,$%(? "2-,9(6 -&,$-2A 12+ -*6 ;15-6$,( 1,45(6717(A $> ,- +(5('-& 1 0*>,-%(6 (2717(%(2, >0-6( ,91, 6-''> *& 1'' ,9( ;(1,*6(>12+ /(915$-6 3-* $27'( 2*%/(6? 89$> $27 %-6( (R/--:> -2 09*62A 0*>,-%(6 (2717(%(2,A 12+ +1,1 121'3>$>?