Should We Legalize

Marijuana?

Should We Legalize

Marijuana?

Prashant FoneskaAna Kostioukova

Dominic Lo

Prashant FoneskaAna Kostioukova

Dominic Lo

Debate Over LegalizationDebate Over Legalization“After generations of defending capital punishment and marijuana possession laws on moral, ethical and religious grounds, after years of declaring that the death penalty acted as a deterrent against violent crime and that pot smokers were more dangerous to society than, say, alcohol consumers, all of a sudden thanks to our economic crisis more and more mainstream powerbrokers are considering dramatic changes to our criminal justice system.” -CBSNews, Feb 25, 2009 by Andrew Cohen

“After generations of defending capital punishment and marijuana possession laws on moral, ethical and religious grounds, after years of declaring that the death penalty acted as a deterrent against violent crime and that pot smokers were more dangerous to society than, say, alcohol consumers, all of a sudden thanks to our economic crisis more and more mainstream powerbrokers are considering dramatic changes to our criminal justice system.” -CBSNews, Feb 25, 2009 by Andrew Cohen

$68 billion per year on corrections, 1/3 nonviolent drug crimes.

$150 billion on policing and courts, and 47.5% of all drug arrests are marijuana-related.

Potential for thousands of new jobs in agriculture, packaging, marketing and advertising.

$68 billion per year on corrections, 1/3 nonviolent drug crimes.

$150 billion on policing and courts, and 47.5% of all drug arrests are marijuana-related.

Potential for thousands of new jobs in agriculture, packaging, marketing and advertising.

Marijuana in California Marijuana in California Currently only legal for

medical use Marijuana Control,

Regulation, and Education Act (AB 390) could legalize Marijuana for people under 21

Largest cash crop in California, with annual revenues approaching $14 billion.

A 10% “pot tax” would yield $1.4 billion in California alone.

Currently only legal for medical use

Marijuana Control, Regulation, and Education Act (AB 390) could legalize Marijuana for people under 21

Largest cash crop in California, with annual revenues approaching $14 billion.

A 10% “pot tax” would yield $1.4 billion in California alone.

Does a link between marijuana use and crime/unemployment exist?

What is marijuana’s impact versus substitutes, alcohol and other illicit

drugs?

Does a link between marijuana use and crime/unemployment exist?

What is marijuana’s impact versus substitutes, alcohol and other illicit

drugs? Factors we

considered: Population Density Median income Education Median age Population age 18 -24 Children in low

income families Marijuana use Alcohol use Other Illicit drug use

Factors we considered:

Population Density Median income Education Median age Population age 18 -24 Children in low

income families Marijuana use Alcohol use Other Illicit drug use

15 California Regions Included in the Analysis

15 California Regions Included in the Analysis

PredictionsPredictionsType of Variables Expected Sign for

CrimeExpected Sign for Unemployment

Population per square mile (2005 estimate)

+ +

Median Family Income – –% High School

Graduates – –

Median Age – +% population age 18-24

+ +

Children ( age 0-17) in low income families

+ +

Marijuana + +Alcohol + +Other Illicit Drugs + +

Crime RegressionCrime RegressionCoefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 4798.39725 1996.93817 2.40287

Pop./sq mi (2005 estimates)*

0.02348 0.04218 0.55670

Median Family Income

-0.016595 0.01026 -1.61707

% of HS Graduates 2000 Census

-10.31613 15.06715 -0.68467

Median Age -33.49329 29.31520 -1.14252

% Population 18-24 -56.77881 35.50606 -1.59913

Children 0-17 in Low Income Families

-1063.10066 1385.77276 -0.76715

Marijuana Use (Past Month)

-902.18498 4231.57732 -0.21320

Alcohol Use (Past Month)

344.06654 2218.29846 0.15510

Illicit Drug Use 12087.98125 24232.66805 0.49882

Crime FindingsCrime Findings 1% increase in Marijuana use leads

to 9 less felonies per 100,000 people

1% increase in Alcohol use leads to 3-4 more felonies per 100,000 people

1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to 120 more felonies per 100,000 people.

1% increase in Marijuana use leads to 9 less felonies per 100,000 people

1% increase in Alcohol use leads to 3-4 more felonies per 100,000 people

1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to 120 more felonies per 100,000 people.

Crime RegressionCrime Regression

SUMMARY OUTPUT FELONY (per 100,000)

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.5911135R Square 0.3494152Adjusted R Square 0.2274305Standard Error 369.31737Observations 58

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 9 3516240.441 390693.4 2.864419 0.008695677Residual 48 6546975.249 136395.3Total 57 10063215.69

Unemployment RegressionUnemployment RegressionCoefficients Standard

Errort Stat

Intercept 0.13457 0.07516 1.79033

Pop./sq mi (2005 estimates)*

2.12572E-06 1.58781E-06 1.33877

Median Family Income -3.51997E-07 3.86263E-07 -0.91128

% of HS Graduates 2000 Census

-0.00246 0.00057 -4.33176

Median Age 0.00158 0.00111 1.43563

% Population 18-24 -0.00029 0.00134 -0.22113

Children 0-17 in Low Income Families

0.00212 0.05216 0.04059

Marijuana Use (Past Month)

-0.06984 0.15927 -0.43848

Alcohol Use (Past Month)

0.09322 0.08349 1.11642

Illicit Drug Use 0.97717 0.91210 1.07134

Unemployment FindingsUnemployment Findings 1% increase in Marijuana use leads

to .07% decrease in unemployment

1% increase in Alcohol use leads to .09% increase in unemployment

1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to .97% increase in unemployment

1% increase in Marijuana use leads to .07% decrease in unemployment

1% increase in Alcohol use leads to .09% increase in unemployment

1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to .97% increase in unemployment

Unemployment Regression

Unemployment Regression

SUMMARY OUTPUT UNEMPLOYMENT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.8271888R Square 0.6842412Adjusted R Square 0.6250365Standard Error 0.0139009Observations 58

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 9 0.020099327 0.002233 11.5572 2.16981E-09Residual 48 0.009275294 0.000193Total 57 0.029374621

ConclusionConclusion According to our model marijuana does

not increase serious crime or unemployment rates.

Alcohol and especially other illicit drugs (hard drugs) pose a much worse problem

Marijuana slightly decreases serious crime and unemployment rates

Our findings show that marijuana use does not pose a threat to society and supports the case for the legalization of marijuana

According to our model marijuana does not increase serious crime or unemployment rates.

Alcohol and especially other illicit drugs (hard drugs) pose a much worse problem

Marijuana slightly decreases serious crime and unemployment rates

Our findings show that marijuana use does not pose a threat to society and supports the case for the legalization of marijuana

Descriptive StatisticsDescriptive StatisticsPopulati

on%

Unemp.Pop./sq

miMed. Inc

% HS Grad

Med. Age % 18-24

0-17 Low Mj. Use Alc. Use Illicit Use

Mean 656025.2069

0.062758621

498.5517241

53158.7069

78.73965517

36.11551724

9.143103448

0.444482759

0.082775862

0.524944828

0.041625862

Std. Error 194799.6796

0.002980813

169.8759577

2236.353696

1.053364212

0.608041503

0.325114453

0.015614403

0.002683146

0.005951243

0.000512821

Median 180979 0.057 98.5 50525.5

80.9 35.4 9.2 0.43 0.0823 0.5323 0.0421

Mode #N/A 0.08 2 48489 82.3 36.4 10.3 0.43 0.1143 0.5323 0.046

Std. Dev. 1483550.161

0.022701194

1293.73675

17031.56233

8.022182834

4.630706123

2.475997908

0.118915751

0.020434227

0.045323319

0.003905532

S. Variance

2.20092E+12

0.000515344

1673754.778

290074115.5

64.35541742

21.4434392

6.130565638

0.014140956

0.000417558

0.002054203

1.52532E-05

Kurtosis 32.93717297

3.581056355

29.59782899

1.344590518

-0.51438

2955

-1.0314828

06

2.073173024

-0.557338

498

-1.0606293

47

0.036769299

-0.283866

649

Skewness 5.270688787

1.465061916

5.053458472

1.010867219

-0.62281

6024

0.375424346

0.776584806

-0.030547

283

0.488204307

-0.75261005

6

-0.641289

2

Range 10362628

0.12 8712 81799 32.2 15.6 13.5 0.49 0.0619 0.1717 0.0145

Minimum 1222 0.034 2 30356 59 29 4.8 0.16 0.0524 0.4274 0.0315

Maximum 10363850

0.154 8714 112155 91.2 44.6 18.3 0.65 0.1143 0.5991 0.046

Sum 38049462

3.64 28916 3083205

4566.9 2094.7 530.3 25.78 4.801 30.4468 2.4143

Count 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58

Sources of DataSources of DataBackground:

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1889021,00.html (Time Magazine, CNN News) http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/02/25/opinion/courtwatch/main4828659.shtml (CBS News)

http://www.oas.samhsa.gov/ (Office of Applied Studies: National Study on Drug Use and Health)

Independent Variables: http://www.csac.countries.org/ (California State Association of

Counties) http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=1008 (California

Employment Development Department) http://publications.childrennow.org/ (Children Now)

http://censtats.census.gov/cgi-bin/usac/usacomp.pl(US Census) http://ca.rand.org/stats/ (Rand California Statistics)

Background: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1889021,00.html (Time Magazine, CNN News) http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/02/25/opinion/courtwatch/main4828659.shtml (CBS News)

http://www.oas.samhsa.gov/ (Office of Applied Studies: National Study on Drug Use and Health)

Independent Variables: http://www.csac.countries.org/ (California State Association of

Counties) http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=1008 (California

Employment Development Department) http://publications.childrennow.org/ (Children Now)

http://censtats.census.gov/cgi-bin/usac/usacomp.pl(US Census) http://ca.rand.org/stats/ (Rand California Statistics)