Short Term Betfair Football Trading Modelling

8/13/2019 Short Term Betfair Football Trading Modelling

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Short Term Betfair Football Trading Modelling

www.betpractice.com 1

SHORT TERM BETFAIR FOOTBALL

TRADING MODELLING

By TimeGoal Software

1. General

A well known trading in Betfair Exchange

market is the back/lay arbitrage in Under 2.5

market at the first 10÷15min of a football

game. When the game starts and as there is

no goal, the odd of Under 2.5 market is

reducing as it shows in figure 1. This is the

case for placing a back bet before the game

and then placing a lay bet after 10÷15min of

the game. The question is which the probabilityis, for scoring a goal during the first 10min of a

game. Additionally, which are the best time

intervals during a football game for making a

short term trading?

TimeGoal online software can make such

calculations using previous historical goal data.

The user has the opportunity to select time

intervals of a game, so as to have probabilitiesfor the score status.

Figure 1: Betfair diagram of Odd fluctuation

during a game

It is assumed, that the reader is familiar with

software components and procedures. It is

very important to mention that probabilities are

based only in historical goal data, without any

reference in other game factors (players, red

cards etc) that may affect the result of the

game. Therefore, it is better to use the results

only as reference values, which need further

readjustment according to other factors

(players, red cards etc) as has been

mentioned above.

2. Trading Modeling

A trade modelling is going to be done

between teams PAOK and ARIS from GREEK

Superleague. The analysis will try to find theprobability for the score (0-0) to remain or to

change inside time intervals of 2min during the

first half time of the game.

The results of such a calculation are shown in

table 1. Data sampling of goals was selected

as «Home- Away» from season 2008-2011.

That means, the analysis include all matches

played from PAOK as «Ηome» andrespectively from ARIS as « Away». According

to the results the best Trading has to be done

between 4÷6min, 16÷18min and 25÷27min.

These time spacing’s during the game have

been shown the less probability (below 4%) for

the existing score (0-0) to change. At the other

hand, time intervals between 22÷24min and

34÷36min have been shown high probability

(above 10%) for score (0-0) to change.

Table 2 shows the same calculations

assuming different data sampling of goals

“Home & Away-Home & Away” that means the

analysis include all matches played as «home

& away» from PAOK and ARIS. Time

spacing’s between 4÷6min & 25÷27min shows

again small probability (below 4%) for the

existing score (0-0) to change.


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Table 1 : Trading Probabilities between Time Intervals by TimeGoal, Data Sampling Home-Away

To Remain

(0-0)

To change

(0-0)

1-3 0-0 95,40% 4,60% Home-Away 2008-2011

4-6 0-0 97,59% 2,41% Home-Away 2008-2011

7-9 0-0 93,83% 6,17% Home-Away 2008-2011

10-12 0-0 92,11% 7,89% Home-Away 2008-2011

13-15 0-0 91,43% 8,57% Home-Away 2008-2011

16-18 0-0 96,88% 3,12% Home-Away 2008-2011

19-21 0-0 91,94% 8,06% Home-Away 2008-2011

22-24 0-0 87,72% 12,28% Home-Away 2008-2011

25-27 0-0 96,00% 4,00% Home-Away 2008-2011

28-30 0-0 93,75% 6,25% Home-Away 2008-2011

31-33 0-0 93,33% 6,67% Home-Away 2008-2011

34-36 0-0 88,10% 11,90% Home-Away 2008-2011

37-39 0-0 94,59% 5,41% Home-Away 2008-2011

40-42 0-1 94,29% 5,71% Home-Away 2008-2012

43-45 0-2 90,91% 9,09% Home-Away 2008-2013

TIME

AREA SCORE

Possibility (%)Data

SamplingSeason

Table 2 : Trading Probabilities between Time Intervals by TimeGoal, Data Sampling Home & Away

for Team (1) and Home & Away for Team (2)

To Remain

(0-0)

To change

(0-0)

1-3 0-0 94,25% 5,75% HA-HA 2008-2011

4-6 0-0 96,95% 3,05% HA-HA 2008-2011

7-9 0-0 94,34% 5,66% HA-HA 2008-2011

10-12 0-0 92,00% 8,00% HA-HA 2008-2011

13-15 0-0 92,03% 7,97% HA-HA 2008-2011

16-18 0-0 95,28% 4,72% HA-HA 2008-2011

19-21 0-0 91,74% 8,26% HA-HA 2008-2011

22-24 0-0 90,09% 9,91% HA-HA 2008-2011

25-27 0-0 96,00% 4,00% HA-HA 2008-2011

28-30 0-0 95,83% 4,17% HA-HA 2008-2011

31-33 0-0 93,48% 6,52% HA-HA 2008-2011

34-36 0-0 91,86% 8,14% HA-HA 2008-2011

37-39 0-0 94,94% 5,06% HA-HA 2008-2011

40-42 0-1 94,67% 5,33% HA-HA 2008-2011

43-45 0-2 90,14% 9,86% HA-HA 2008-2011

TIME

AREA SCORE

Possibility (%)Data

SamplingSeason


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According to the results, it seems that the

safest back/lay trading must be placed

between 4÷6min & 25÷27min of the game. The

question is what kind of betting strategies has

to be followed, if there is a goal during these

trading periods (4÷6min & 25÷27min).

TimeGoal software has the possibility to model

such a case.

Making a trading from 2min to 4min the

possibility to have the first goal is 2.41% to

3.05%. When the first goal has been scored,

odd of Under 2.5 increased dramatically. After

a period of time during the game (usually 20-30min), when there is no other goal, odd of

Under 2.5 market reduce at a price similar with

the price offered, before the first goal scored.

A completed trading modeling has to take care

of having a goal scored during the trading

period. So, when a goal scored until 6min,

trading has to be continuing for at least the

next 20min, which means until 26min of the

game. The possibility to have another goal

(more than one) between 6min to 26min

calculated with probability equals to 36.36%,

as it shown in figure 2 and figure 3. Figure 4

shows the same trading modelling for making

a trading from 25min to 27min and then until

47 to reduce your money loss in case of a goal

scored during 25min to 27min.

Figure 2: TimeGoal menu assuming Scenario of 1goal until 6min and search probability until

26min.

Figure 3: Diagram of Betfair Trading Modeling by TimeGoal, Time Interval 4min to 6min.


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Figure 4: Diagram of Betfair Trading Modeling by TimeGoal, Time Interval 25min to 27min.

Documents

Short Term Betfair Football Trading Modelling