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SHIPPING FINANCE
PRESENTATION TO: NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENSNIKOS VERAROSDATE: 12/5/2003
INDUSTRY FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Highly cyclical industry Highly leveraged asset Timing critical for investment success Active second hand market for the
assets Average Return on Asset of 10% Average Return on Equity can be
significantly improved through financial leverage & good timing
VESSEL VALUES vs FREIGHT RATES
Panamax freight rates vs. vessel prices
020406080
100120140160
No
v 19
93
Apr
199
4
Sep
19
9
Feb
19
95
Jul 1
995
De
c 19
9
Ma
y 1
99
Oct
199
6
Ma
r 19
97
Aug
19
9
Jan
19
98
Jun
19
98
No
v 19
98
Apr
199
9
Sep
19
9
Feb
20
00
Jul 2
000
De
c 20
0
Ma
y 2
00
Oct
200
1
Ma
r 20
02
Freight rates Vessel price
Vessel values follow freight rates fluctuations with a time lag
DEMAND IN PRINCIPLE …
Shipping trade demand growth Long-run: related to World Economy Short-run: fluctuations trigger shipping cycle surges & dips
Relatively inelastic to changes in freight prices because:
1. Transportation cost is only a small portion of overall product cost
2. Transportation comes at the very end of the production process
DEMAND GROWTH
Qty
surge
dip
time
long-run growth
short-runfluctuations
SUPPLY IN PRINCIPLE …
Relatively elastic to freight price changes Usually operators overreact to changes
in demand
EXPECTED FLEET GROWTH (measured in deadweight tons)
Current fleet sizePlus: Vessels under construction Change in avgMinus: Vessels to be scrapped fleet age
SHIPPING CYCLES IN PRINCIPLE …
C
Decline
AFlat
AFlat
BUpturn
… SHIPPING CYCLES IN FIGURES
TIMING IS WHAT COUNTS
When to enter? When market is flat
When to exit? Quickly, when market conditions
improve
When investment timing proves wrong, we should hold until the storm passes
FINANCING OF SHIPPING
Bank mortgage loans is by far the main method of financing
Capital markets (equity & bond issues) have only marginal contributions
Bank Financing to Greek Shipping (USD mn)
16,715
18,912
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
18000
18500
19000
19500
2000 2001
Ocean going, 91%
Ferries, 9%
Source: XRTC
Bank Financing to Greek Shipping (USD mn)
Country ParticipationGreece 21%Germany 29%France 9%US 7%UK 19%Netherlands 8%Switzerland 4%Norway 3%Other 1%
Source: XRTC
Economics of Shipping Loan
Total Firm Value = Debt + Equity
Time Firm Debt Equity Leverage RoA RoE
0 100 80 20 80% - -
1a 130 80 50 62% 30% 150%
1b 90 80 10 89% -10% -50%
1c 75 80 ? ? -25% ?
Process of Granting a Shipping Loan
1. Submit proposal to the Bank2. The Bank offers Indication Letter3. Negotiate terms4. The Bank obtains Credit Approval and issues Commitment Letter5. Sign Commitment Letter6. Lawyers take charge and draft Loan Document7. Sign Loan Document8. Money Drawdown
VESSEL PARTICULARS RELEVANT TO FINANCING
Vessel Type Dwt Built Lwt Flag SS Due
Niki MT 60,000 1982 8,500 MALT Dec 03
Newbuilding Financing
Instalment payments to the yard Signing Keel laying Launching Delivery
Refund Guarantee Bank pre-delivery financing
Lease transactions
Concept of Depreciation Structures to benefit from depreciation
charges
Stock Exchange
Only Ferry companies so far in the Athens Stock Exchange Attica Enterprises, Minoan, Anek, Strintzis,
Nel, Dane Legal framework under review for ocean
going companies Major listings in New York include:
Tankers: Stelmar, TEN Bulkers: Angelikousis