Shipbuilding & Shipping Forecast to 2030

Shipbuilding & Shipping

Forecast to 2030

Selected Highlights, Spring 2018

www.clarksons.com

About the Shipbuilding & Shipping Forecast Club

March 2018

What are the aims?

• To provide market intelligence, forecasts, analysis, education and networking opportunities to companies selling and

marketing into the shipbuilding and shipping market to support their sales, marketing and strategic planning needs. The

key deliverables include a detailed market report presented at a six monthly seminar.

What is covered?

• Freight market review and outlook

• In depth newbuilding market analysis

• Newbuild contracting forecasts to 2027 by 66 segments; fleet growth forecasts to 2030

• Financing requirement forecasts to 2030

• Trade forecasts and regional trading patterns

• Ownership trends and forecasts

• Environmental & regulatory review including projections of Scrubbers & Alternative Fuels

Who should attend?

• Any entity selling and marketing into the shipbuilding and shipping market, be that yard space, marine equipment, class

or flag services, aftersales support, insurance or finance. Any company needing to understand the shipping and

shipbuilding markets, the latest major themes and trends and their outlook to 2030.

Next seminar 26th September 2018. See page 25 for more details on the Club.

If you are interested

in attending the

Shipbuilding and

Shipping Forecast

Club, please contact

Clarksons Research

(see page 31 for

details).

2

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Spring 2018 Seminar Highlights

Please note that these highlights are provided for

illustrative purposes only and some information has

been redacted.

www.clarksons.com

Key Takeaways 1. Market cycle: 2016 toughest earnings year since financial crisis for shipping but now some potential building

blocks for the future and improved sentiment. ClarkSea Index up 14% y-o-y in 2017 but still 10% below trend.

2. Trade still growing: Economic upswing supporting trade in short term and still growth potential in shipping

demand and an Asia trend? Strongest growth in trade since 2012 – 4.1% to 11.6bn tonnes in 2017. Trade

impacted by Chinese economy and policy: Belt & Road Initiative. But still 85% of trade by sea and still long

term growth potential but range of scenarios. What factors would produce a zero growth scenario – protectionist

policies?

3. Fleet growth slowing: But still 1.3bn GT and over 56% bigger than at financial crisis so larger market for

service sector. Orderbook now 10% of fleet, down from 50% in 2008.

4. Shipyard capacity: Shipyard ordering very weak in 2016 and still pressures for capacity reductions. More

investment in 2017 from a low base and still long term requirements.

5. Consolidation: Consolidation of owner base expected. Record levels of S&P in 2017.

6. Major change in financial landscape: US$1.2 trillion dollar asset base has significant financing requirements.

But major changes including regulation and banks exiting shipping. Interest rates starting to move also.

7. Environmental regulation: Regulation accelerating and creating demand for solutions but timing and

technology difficult.

8. Technology change: Technology and innovation opportunities with e-commerce, digitalisation, data, IT and

satellite communication to ships to support productivity and regulation but still many hurdles to overcome –

cyber risk, people, company size, data etc.

9. Shipping in 2030: 15.7bn tonnes and 1.8bn GT??

10. Surviving the Cycle & Planning for Recovery.

4 March 2018

Summary of Key Trends:

1. Market Cycle Position

2. Trade Growth Forecasts

3. Fleet Growth Forecasts

4. Shipyard Capacity

5. Ownership Consolidation

6. Financial Landscape

7. Environmental Regulation

8. Technology

9. Shipping in 2030

10. Survival & Recovery

www.clarksons.com

Shipping Since the Financial Crisis

US$’000/day

Note: OPEX Index basis Moore Stephens’ published statistics, weighted using ClarkSea assumptions.

Annual

Average ClarkSea Index

(US$/day)

OPEX Index

(US$/day)

2008 32,659 6,483

2009 11,331 6,289

2010 15,480 6,480

2011 12,314 6,504

2012 9,577 6,691

2013 10,263 6,543

2014 11,743 6,509

2015 14,410 6,395

2016 9,441 6,347

2017 10,767 6,391

2018* 10,721 6,379

The ClarkSea Index, 2008 - Present

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16th March 2018

US$11,066/day

Average since crisis

$11,794

2018* = year to date

Shipbuilding Forecast Club 5 March 2018

www.clarksons.com

-110% -90% -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%

ClarkSea Index

VLCC

Suezmax

Aframax

Clean Products (MR)

SS Chem Tanker 20k dwt

Capesize

Panamax

Handymax

Handy

Container 4,500 teu

Container 2,750 teu

Container 1,700 teu

PCC 6,500 ceu

Ro-Ro 3,500 lm

LPG

LNG

Offshore - Jackups

Offshore - Floaters

Offshore - PSV

Market Cycle Position: Average earnings for each ship type, compared to the average earnings since January 2009

Market Cycle Position: March 2018

Tanker markets weak

after difficult 2017

Containership rates

improving but still below

trend in some sizes, PCC

weak, Ro Ro firm

Offshore sector still weak

Bulkcarrier rates

improved and continued

investor interest

LPG weak, LNG

improving towards trend

ClarkSea Index below

trend but up y-o-y

Shipbuilding Forecast Club 6 March 2018

www.clarksons.com

Monthly Newbuild Contracts by Number

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No. Vessels

May 2009:

24 contracts

Feb 1999:

16 orders

2016: Only c.600 orders placed -

record low from “perfect storm” of all

major freight markets being weak,

over ordering in 2013 (private equity /

eco) and 2015 (Tier III), financing

conditions, yard pricing and very

weak sentiment. Oil price impacting

offshore.

Reported Shipbuilding Orders Per Month

March 2018 7

www.clarksons.com

Cruise - Major Brands (60,000+ GT ships)

Fleet Orderbook New Orders

Group Brand No. Berths No. Berths 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)

Carnival 25 65,944 4 18,554 2

16 44,210 2 7,120

12 35,524 4 18,400

11 19,818 1 2,650

9 21,744 3 15,000

Other 14 30,763 2 10,400 1

Royal Caribbean (includes joint venture

with TUI)

23 73,984 6 29,160 3

9 22,326 4 11,600 2

6 13,876 3 8,682

Other 2 4,482

Norwegian 15 42,810 6 21,600 4

2 2,502

MSC 14 39,965 8 41,732 4

Disney 4 8,508 3 7,500 1

Genting 1 1,964 2 10,000

1 1,070 1 800

2 6,728

All Other 3 5,422 3 8,400

Total 169 441,840 52 211,598 17

March 2018 8 Shipbuilding Forecast Club

More detailed

projections

provided as part

of Shipbuilding

Forecast Club

www.clarksons.com

Historical Shipbuilding Shares (GT)

USA

Japan

Korea

China

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Europe

Japan

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% Global Deliveries

US

9 March 2018

www.clarksons.com

Clarksons Newbuilding Price Index

March 2018

Guideline Newbuilding Prices*

VLCC: $86m

18.5k TEU boxship: $141.5m

174k m3 LNG unit: $180m

Capesize: $46m

*as of 16/03/2018

Shipbuilding Forecast Club 10

-30%

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% y-o-y Index

% Change(RHS)

www.clarksons.com

Vietnam: 29 orders of 0.7m CGT

• 24 x c.50,000 dwt MR tankers

• 4 x 80,000 dwt Kamsarmax bulkcarriers

U.A.E.: 4 orders

•4 x 103 GT crew vessels

USA: 6 orders

• 3 x 4,500 pax passenger ferries

• 2 x 2,525 TEU containerships

• 1 x 8,000 GT dredger

Singapore: 5 orders

• 2 x 7,500 cu.m. LNG carriers

• 2 x 5,987 GT dredger

• 1 x 100,000 GT FPSO

Australia: 4 orders

• 2 x 1,100 pax ferries

• 2 x 1,200 pax ferries

Bangladesh: 3 orders

• 3 x 500 cu.m. LPG carriers

India: 6 orders

• 6 x general cargo

Brazil: 4 orders

• 4 x 10,720 HP AHTS

Chile: 1 order

• 1 x 70 berth cruise ship

Indonesia: 1 order

• 1 x general cargo

Sri Lanka: 1 orders

• 1 x cable layer

Focus - Rest of the World Ordering

March 2018 11

Total ‘Other World’ Orders 2017 = 104 ships of 1.8m CGT

Shipbuilding Forecast Club

Taiwan: 2 orders

• 2 x 208,000 dwt

Newcastlemax bulkcarriers

Philippines: 37 orders

• 21 x c.82,000 dwt Kamsarmax bulkers

• 4 x c.64,000 dwt Handymax bulkers

• 2 x 79,500 cu.m. LPG carriers

• 4 x 114,000 dwt Aframax tankers

• 3 x 1,900 TEU feeder containerships

• 3 x ~600 pax ferries

www.clarksons.com

Capital Markets & Shipping

March 2018 12

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bonds ($bn)

Bonds

Follow-Ons

IPOs

Total Raised (RHS)

No

Source: Clarksons Research

• A total of $xbn was raised on the capital

markets in 2017. This is the first annual

increase in the amount of capital raised on

the capital markets since…

• $xm was raised through x IPOs (including

initial OTC listings), $xbn through x follow-

ons…

• Of the x shipping IPOs that were carried

out in 2017, x of them were completed so

on Oslo-OTC markets…

• New York (NYSE & NASDAQ) and Oslo

(including OTC) were the most active

stock exchanges in terms of amount of

capital raised over the course of 2017.

Collectively $xbn was raised by shipping

companies on these exchanges.


Detailed data on

capital market

activity, including

bonds, follow-ons

and IPOs, available

as part of

Shipbuilding

Forecast Club

www.clarksons.com

Projected Transaction Investment To 2027

13

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27

S&P

Newbuild

US$bn

March 2018


Forecasts of newbuild and

secondhand investment

provided as part of

Shipbuilding Forecast

Club.

% Share Investment

2018-2027

Newbuild x%

S&P x%

No of Transactions

p.a. 2018-2027

Newbuild x

S&P x

Total x

www.clarksons.com

China’s Belt & Road Initiative: Overview & Update

March 2018

Timeline

2013 Belt & Road initiative first proposed.

2015 Establishment of Silk Road Fund & BRICS

Development Bank.

2016

Establishment of Asian Infrastructure Bank. Belt &

Road Initiative included in China’s 13th Five Year

Plan.

2017

The ‘Belt & Road Forum’ was held in Beijing. Belt &

Road Initiative incorporated in CPC’s Constitution

and UN’s resolution.

Source: Xinhua

‘Belt & Road’ Overview

• The ‘Belt & Road’ is China’s long-term plan for increased economic co-

operation and large-scale infrastructure development across a range of

countries in Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

• A total of x countries are listed as part of the official ‘Belt & Road’ initiative,

spanning the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘Maritime Silk Road’.

Together with China, these countries account for x% of global seaborne trade…

• An estimated $xbn has been invested in B&R projects since the start of 2014…

Region No. of Countries Key Countries

SE Asia 11 Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos

East/Central Asia 6 Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan

South Asia 8 Pakistan, Bangladesh

West Asia 3 Armenia

Russia 1 Russia

East Europe 21 Belarus, Latvia

Middle East 14 Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE

North Africa 2 Egypt

14

Shipbuilding Forecast Club includes more

detailed statistics on Belt & Road projects

and infrastructure.

www.clarksons.com

Seaborne Trade: Long-Term Scenarios

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Base Scenario

Low Scenario

High Scenario

Long-Term Seaborne Trade Scenarios

mt

International Transport Forum Transport

Outlook 2017 (OECD/ITF): Sea freight transport

demand growth 2015-30 - 3.4% per annum


15 March 2018

Multiple trade

scenarios modelled

as part of

Shipbuilding

Forecast Club

www.clarksons.com

US Steel Import Tariffs

March 2018 Shipbuilding Forecast Club

Background:

• On 8th March, US President Donald Trump signed into law new tariffs of

25% on imports of steel, and 10% on imports of aluminium.

• The tariffs will apply to imports from all countries, with Canada and

Mexico exempt initially, and according to the US administration will be in

place for a ‘long period of time’.

• Other US trade partners may apply for exemptions in the future.

#1 Steel

importer

globally

US

Steel

Sector:

xmt Seaborne

imports in

2017

#4 Steel

producer in

2017

-x% Steel output

CAGR 2007-

2017

x% Steel imports

CAGR 2011-

2017

Potential Impacts on Seaborne Trade:

xmt Crude steel

production in

2017

EU

Brazil

South Korea

Russia Turkey

Japan

Mexico

Taiwan

South Africa

China

India

Vietnam

Australia

Ukraine Others

2017

xmt

US Seaborne Steel Products

Imports By Source, mt

Source: Clarksons

Research

Shipbuilding Forecast Club includes

further discussion of potential

implications of tariffs & trade friction

www.clarksons.com

Environmental Regulation Timeline


Date

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Baltic Sea ECA in effect

ECA – Emission Control Area North Sea ECA in effect Global NOx Tier I Limit

NOx

1.0% ECA SOx Limit SOx

EEDI for newbuildings formally adopted

Global NOx Tier II Limit

3.5% global SOx limit

North American ECA entered into force

EEDI – Energy Efficiency Design Index

EEDI & SEEMP Mandatory (Phase 0)

Ratification of BWMC

BWMC - Ballast Water Management Convention

US Caribbean ECA enters into force

BWMC applies to newbuilds & ships constructed before 8th

September 2017 if an IOPPC is completed on or after 8th

September 2014 and prior to 8th September 2017

Lower EEDI reference line (Phase 1)

0.1% ECA SOx limit

NOx Tier III ECA limit *

Lower EEDI reference line (Phase 2) 0.5% global SOx limit

Lower EEDI reference line (Phase 3)

Key

*At the MEPC 66 it was decided that, as of 1st September 2015, Tier III limits within

future ECAs will only apply to ships built after the date of adoption of the ECA, or a

later date as may be specified in the amendment designating the NOx Tier III ECA.

EU Monitoring, Reporting & Verification

MRV – Monitoring Reporting and Verification

17

MRV becomes mandatory in EU ports

EU MRV certification comes into force

North Sea & Baltic Sea NOx ECAs in effect

BWMC applies to all other ships constructed before 8th

September 2017

March 2018

www.clarksons.com

Global Fleet: Uptake of SOx Solutions So Far

Equipment Type SOx

Scrubbers ‘LNG Capable’

Fleet

% of Total Fleet

Orderbook

% of Total Orderbook

*Based on reported equipment. Data coverage is not comprehensive.

• With only a small proportion of the fleet spending over 50% of its time in SOx Emission Control Areas

(SECA) (see annex for a summary of vessel movements data), the uptake of SOx emission reduction

solutions has been relatively limited, only around x% of the current fleet would be compliant with a 0.1% limit

on the sulphur content of fuel.

March 2018 18

Scrubber

System Method

Open Loop

Closed Loop

Hybrid

More detailed data on

uptake of environmental

equipment available as

part of Shipbuilding

Forecast Club

www.clarksons.com

SOx Scrubber Equipped Fleet Development Scenarios

March 2018

- Analysis takes into account new deliveries into the fleet with scrubbers as well as retrofit demand.

- Some other forecasts are based on a refinery perspective; this model approaches from the point of view of scrubber demand and

potential yard capacity to install both scrubber units and BWMS.

- Uptick in retrofit demand expected after implementation of SOx 2020, followed by reduced demand from 2025.

0

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LOW CASE SCENARIO

BASE CASE SCENARIO

HIGH CASE SCENARIO

No. Ships

SHORT-TERM

SOx Scrubber Equipped Fleet Dev. Scenarios (End Year) PROVISIONAL

Slowing growth;

‘interim solution’,

competition with other

options, refinery

challenges, scrubber

technology issues

High/low cases basis

assumptions on refinery output,

scrubber costs, CO2 regulations

and technology developments

MEDIUM-TERM LONG-TERM

19

Increased demand,

but weighted towards

newbuild; retrofits

limited by weak

markets and BWMS

costs

More detailed data on uptake of environmental

equipment available as part of Shipbuilding

Forecast Club

www.clarksons.com

‘LNG Capable’ Fleet Development Scenarios

March 2018

High level demand scenarios for ‘LNG Capable’ ships take into account:

(i) price differential between the cost of traditional marine bunker fuels and LNG

(ii) the exposure of different ship types and sizes to designated ECAs prior to the introduction of the global sulphur cap

(iii) the level of general market acceptance (including designs to deal with reduced capacity, investment costs, CAPEX & returns)

20

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'LNG Capable' Fleet Development Scenarios, End Year

LOW CASE SCENARIO

BASE CASE SCENARIO

HIGH CASE SCENARIO

No. Ships

SHORT-TERM MEDIUM-TERM LONG-TERM

More detailed data on uptake of environmental

equipment available as part of Shipbuilding Forecast

Club

www.clarksons.com

Global LNG Bunkering Facilities


More detailed data on LNG

bunkering infrastructure

available as part of


www.clarksons.com

Contracting Forecast (Ship Nos)

• Number of contracts projected to remain subdued

in short-term, rising to x in 2023.

• Contracting only approaches the historical average

towards the end of the forecast period, and on

average across 2018-27 is down x% compared to

the 2001-17 average in terms of number of ships,

and x% in terms of GT.

• Average number of contracts 2020-27 equal to x

p.a.

• Overall contracting forecast 2018-26 at an average

of x vessels, up around x% (c.x units) p.a. from

Autumn 2017 forecast. Contracting in GT expected

to average xm GT p.a. in 2018-26, up x% from

previous forecast.

• Ordering trends up to x units of xm GT in 2027.

• Product mix changing in long-term.

Long-Term Contracting 2001-27

Sh

ip n

os

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Grand Total Contracting

Small Ships

Forecast

March 2018 22

Hist. avg.

Forecast broken

down by 66

shiptypes and

size sectors in

number, dwt, $.

Delivery and fleet

growth forecasts

are also available.

www.clarksons.com

World Fleet Growth Easing

-4%

-2%

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10%

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Fleet, end year

Fleet Growth % (RHS)

Million GT y-o-y % change

Fleet growth peaked

at c. 9% in 2010

Fleet has grown

by 50% since

financial crisis

March 2018 23

Forecast broken down by 66

shiptypes and size sectors in

number, dwt, $.

Delivery and fleet growth

forecasts are also available.

To change the photo, right-click

on the background and choose

“Format Background”. Click on

“Insert from File” and select the

grayscale JPG you want to use.

Under “Picture Colour”, make

Saturation 400% and choose

the dark blue from the Recolour

presets. You may have to

change the Brightness and

Contrast settings in Picture

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More Information About The Shipbuilding & Shipping Forecast to 2030

www.clarksons.com March 2018 25

• The Shipbuilding & Shipping Forecast Club provides a tailored shipbuilding research

service for those who need more in-depth knowledge, analysis and forecasts about

the shipbuilding industry.

Aims: • Market Intelligence

• Forecasts

• Analysis and Marketing

• Education

• Research

• Networking

Membership Includes: • Regular market intelligence

• Regular market forecasts and monitoring

• Bi-annual seminars including intelligence,

education and networking

• Ad hoc support and telephone hotline

Shipbuilding & Shipping Forecast Club Membership

www.clarksons.com

SFC Membership & Autumn 2018 Agenda

26

• Seminars twice a year

• Review of the newbuilding market

• Newbuilding Forecasts (2018-2027)

- Forecasts are generated for 66 ship

types and size-ranges

• Trends in key shipping segments

• Newbuilding broker expert panel

• Discussion and exchange of views

• Networking opportunities

March 2018

www.clarksons.com

Report Contents

27 March 2018

www.clarksons.com

Focus Sessions 2009-18

28

• Container Focus

• Development of Chinese

Shipbuilding

• Development of Chinese

Economy

• LNG Overview

• LNG Shipbuilding

• Offshore Focus

• Containerships with focus on

very large designs

• Cruise Industry

• New Entrants, Clusters and

Growth Companies

• Public Shipping Companies

• Small Ship Market

• Propulsion

• Container Recovery

• FPSO focus

• Rationale of 18,000 TEU

• Regulatory Agenda

• Naval, Superyacht and Fishing Market

• LNG Newbuild Order Potential

• Global Shipbuilding Capacity

• Smart Shipping

• Environmental + Regulatory Update

• The Future of Shipping

March 2018

www.clarksons.com

Shipbuilding Forecast Club Membership

29

Membership spans a variety of sectors including:

• Shipyards (7)

• Engine Manufacturers (10)

• Paint Suppliers (5)

• Classification Societies (5)

• Marine Equipment Suppliers (14)

• Government/Trade Associations (2)

• Financiers (11)

• Insurers (2)

March 2018

www.clarksons.com

Dashboard – World Fleet Register


Key newbuilding market

developments explored, with

supporting data from Clarksons

Research World Fleet Register

dashboards:

• Bulkcarrier Contracting

• Tanker Contracting

– Focus on VLCCs

• Containership Contracting

– Focus on ordering in the Post-

Panamax and Feeder sectors

• Gas Carrier Contracting

– LNG ordering in 2018 so far

A range of Clarksons Research

shipping dashboards are available

on the World Fleet Register.

www.clarksons.com

Contacts At Clarksons Research

31

For more information on pricing and membership to the Shipbuilding & Shipping

Forecast Club please contact us for more information. Information on Clarksons

Research’s offshore focus multi-client group available on request.

Stephen Gordon

Managing Director

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7334 3439

Email: [email protected]

Alex Springer

Shipbuilding and Fabrication Group

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7334 5488

Email: [email protected]

March 2018

www.clarksons.com 32 Shipbuilding Forecast Club

The next meeting of the Shipbuilding Forecast Club will be held on

Wednesday 26th September 2018. The next Offshore Forecast Club

meeting will be held on Thursday 27th September.

Please note that an Autumn 2018 update of the attached content is available

through membership of the Shipbuilding Forecast Club.

March 2018

www.clarksons.com

Disclaimer

March 2018

The material and the information (including, without limitation, any future rates and/or forward looking predictions) contained herein (together, the "Information") are provided

by Clarkson Research Services Limited ("Clarksons Research") for general guidance and not by way of recommendation. The Information is provided on "as is" and “as

available” basis. Clarksons Research and all its Group companies make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy,

reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the recipient's own risk and no responsibility is

accepted for any loss or damage howsoever arising. Please note that future rates and/or forward looking predictions are for i llustration purposes only and given without

guarantee; the ultimate outcome may be different.

This Information is not for reproduction or distribution without Clarksons Research’s prior written consent. Especially, the Information is not to be used in any document for the

purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved by Clarksons Research, its Group companies and/or its

licensors.

This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law.

CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LIMITED, COMMODITY QUAY, ST. KATHARINE DOCKS, LONDON, E1W 1BF

Documents

Shipbuilding & Shipping Forecast to 2030