Shifting Media Spending - WikiLeaks Media... · % of US GDP 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% 5.3% 5.9% 5.7% 6.2% 6.4% Source: VSS Communications Industry Forecast 2009 ($ billions) 3 Breakdown of overall

Shifting Media SpendingShifting Media Spending

Nick VeronisManaging Director

2

Long-term growth in Media

$93$166

$267$350

$518

$671

$885

$1,060

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

12.3% 10.0% 5.6% 8.2% 5.3% 5.6% 3.6%

35 Year Media CAGR: 7.2%

Total Media Spending (1978-2013)

35 Year Nominal GDP CAGR: 5.8%

5 Yr CAGR%

% of US GDP 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% 5.3% 5.9% 5.7% 6.2% 6.4%

Source: VSS Communications Industry Forecast 2009

($ billions)

3

Breakdown of overall Media spending

Advertising• Newspapers

• Broadcast television & radio

• Cable & satellite television

• Yellow pages

• Internet advertising & search

Institutional End-User• Business Information

Services

• Education

• Internet & Wireless Data Access

• Cable Network License Fees

Marketing Services• Direct marketing

• B2B promotion

• Consumer promotion

• Branded entertainment

• Outsourced custom publishing

Consumer End-User• Cable & Satellite

Television

• Home Video

• Consumer Books

• Internet Access (Residential)

• Entertainment


Advertising $209.8Bn

Institutional End-User $241.1Bn

Consumer End-User $215.1Bn

Marketing Services $216.6Bn

18% of Advertising

18% of Marketing Services

40% of Consumer End-User

% Digital Spend within

Category

4

Advertising: Key trends

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$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Advertising Spending (Ranked by ’08-’13 CAGR%)

2008-2013 Compound Annual Growth Rate

2008

Spe

ndi

ng

($ b

illio

ns)

0%


33.0% 10.6% 4.9% -1.9% -2.0% -3.5% -3.6% -5.4% -8.9%

5

Online ad spending significantly lags shift in consumer behavior

Sources: VSS CIF 2009, TVB, Nielsen Media Research Custom Survey 2008; TNS Media Intelligence, 2008 and Ball State University

2 7

2 3 7

9 8 9 9

2 017

$ 2 4

$ 4 4

$ 7 7

$ 18$ 2 2

$ 10

5 0

10 0

15 0

2 0 0

2 5 0

M agaz i ne Newspaper T el evi si on Radi o I nt er net M obi l e$ 0

$ 2 0

$ 4 0

$ 6 0

$ 8 0

Ti me ( mi n/ da y ) 2 0 0 8 Ad S pe nd ( $ bn)

Media Consumption vs. Ad Spend - 2008

Min

ute

s pe

r D

ay

6

Print Yellow Pages Directory spending

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Print Yellow Pages Advertising Spending


($ billions)

7

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Retail Classified National

Print Daily Newspaper Advertising Spending($ billions)

42% ($20Bn) of ad spending on Daily Newspapers has evaporated since 2005


$44.9$47.4

$42.2

$27.4

$21.4 $19.3

8

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

2003 2008 2013

Local Online Advertising spending

50.7% 9.8%

39.6%

Pure-Play Local Search

Print Publishers' Internet

Yellow Pages

15.2%

Traditional Media Online

Platforms

10.0%

30.6%


($ billions)

$2.1

$9.8

$17.5

Local Online Advertising Spend

5 Year CAGRs

9

Internet & Mobile Media platform spending

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Pure-Play Digital Media

Traditional Media

33%67% 40%

60%

45%

55%

Pure-Play and Traditional Media Internet & Mobile Advertising and Content


($ billions)

10

Online Search, Video & Social Media will drive Internet ad spend…


$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Search and Lead Gen Online Video & Rich Media Other

Internet Advertising by Category

$9.3

$17.1

$29.4

$36.5

$44.2

$55.4

($ billions)

11

3G (Mobile Web) Subscribers

159

182

208

233

255

280 284298

312323

331

1 3 614

2746

58

80

110

142

169

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Overall Mobile Subscribers

The emergence of the mobile web


Total U.S Mobile Phone Subscribers(millions)

12

Mobile advertising and content poised to scale rapidly


$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Mobile Advertising Mobile Content

Mobile Advertising and Content Spending

$0.2$1.3

$3.5

$5.0

$7.7

$14.9($ billions)

13

$32.9 billion

$54.3 billion

$37.0 billion

Landscape shift

$153.8 billion

$174.5 billion

$9.0 billion

$17.4 billion

*Market Cap as of 10/21/09

$3.2 billion

To purchase your subscription to

VSS CIF Digital 2.0

or for more information on the

VSS Communications Industry

Forecast (VSS CIF), please visit

www.vss.com/forecast09

or contact VSS at 212-381-8556.

Documents

Shifting Media Spending - WikiLeaks Media... · % of US GDP 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% 5.3% 5.9% 5.7% 6.2% 6.4% Source: VSS Communications Industry Forecast 2009 ($ billions) 3 Breakdown of overall