Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
International Economic Outlook: Shifting International Trade Routes
Larry Boorstein, Project Manager, AECOM
Prepared for Shifting International Trade
Routes, January 29-30, 2015, Tampa,
presented by AAPA in cooperation with the
U.S. Maritime Administration hosted by the
Port of Tampa Bay
.January 29, 2015
World merchandise trade
February 2, 2015
Source: World Trade
Organization, Secretariat for Trade,
September 2014
Page 2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P
World merchandise tradeAnnual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year
World real GDP at market exchange rates
February 2, 2015
Source: World Trade
Organization, Secretariat for Trade,
September 2014
Page 3
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P
World real GDP at market exchange ratesAnnual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year
Rest of world
Asia
North America
South and CentralAmerica
Europe
World merchandise imports
February 2, 2015
Source: Source: World Trade
Organization, Secretariat for Trade,
September 2014
Page 4
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P
World Merchandise ImportsAnnual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year
South and CentralAmerica
Asia
North America
Europe
Rest of world
World merchandise exports
February 2, 2015
Source: Source: World Trade
Organization, Secretariat for Trade,
September 2014
Page 5
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P
World Merchandise Exports Annual Percent Growth Rate vs. Year
Asia
Rest of world
South and CentralAmerica
Europe
North America
Real GDP growth
February 2, 2015
Source: World Bank Global
Economic Prospects, January
2015
Page 6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f
Real GDP, percent change from previous year except interest rates vs. year
India
China
Indonesia
Brazil
South Africa
United States
United Kingdom
Euro Area
Japan
Russia
Real GDP growth, OECD and BRICS
February 2, 2015
Source: World Bank Global
Economic Prospects, January
2015
Page 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f
World real GDP, percent change from previous year: OECD and BRICS vs. year
OECD real GDP BRICS real GDP
World real GDP and world trade volume growth
February 2, 2015
Source: World Bank Global
Economic Prospects, January
2015Page 8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f
World real GDP and World trade volume annual percentage growth rate vs. year
World real GDP (2010 PPP weights) World trade volume Ratio trade growth to GDP growth
GDP at current prices by country
February 2, 2015Source: IMF World Economic
Outlook, October 2014 through
Knoema
Page 9
GDP based on PPP valuation
February 2, 2015
Source: IMF World Economic
Outlook, October 2014 through
Knoema
Page 10
Growth in real GDP
February 2, 2015
Source: IMF, World Economic
Outlook, October 2014 Page 11
Growth in real GDP
February 2, 2015
Source: IMF, World Economic
Outlook, October 2014 Page 12
Growth in real GDP
February 2, 2015Source: IMF, World Economic
Outlook, October 2014 Page 13
Growth in real GDP
February 2, 2015
Source: IMF, World Economic
Outlook, October 2014 Page 14
Growth in real GDP
February 2, 2015
Source: IMF, World Economic
Outlook, October 2014 Page 15
Growth in real GDP
February 2, 2015Source: IMF, World Economic
Outlook, October 2014Page 16
World GDP in current USD
February 2, 2015Source: World Bank, January
2015Page 17
0
1E+13
2E+13
3E+13
4E+13
5E+13
6E+13
7E+13
8E+13
GDP by G-7, BRICS and Other World, 1960-2013 (USD)
Other World
BRICS
G-7
G-7 GDP in current USD
February 2, 2015Source: World Bank, January
2015Page 18
0
5E+12
1E+13
1.5E+13
2E+13
2.5E+13
3E+13
3.5E+13
4E+13
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
20
12
GDP by G-7 Countries and Year, 1960-2013 (USD)
Canada
Italy
United Kingdom
France
Germany
Japan
United States
BRICS GDP in current USD
February 2, 2015Source: World Bank, January
2015Page 19
0
2E+12
4E+12
6E+12
8E+12
1E+13
1.2E+13
1.4E+13
1.6E+13
1.8E+13
2E+13
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
20
12
GDP by BRICS Countries and Year, 1960-2013 (USD)
South Asia
India
Russian Federation
Brazil
China
EU, US, China and Japan GDP in current USD
February 2, 2015Source: World Bank, January
2015Page 20
0
5E+12
1E+13
1.5E+13
2E+13
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
20
12
GDP EU, US, China and Japan, 1960-2013 (USD)
European Union
United States
China
Japan
Share of World GDP, 2003
February 2, 2015Source: World Bank, January
2015Page 21
G-7, 63.7%BRICS, 10.4%
Other World, 25.8%
Share of World GDP by G-7 and BRICS, 2003
Share of World GDP, 2013
February 2, 2015Source: World Bank, January
2015Page 22
G-7, 46.1%
BRICS, 23.6%
Other World, 30.3%
Share of World GDP by G-7 and BRICS, 2013
Country Shares of World GDP, 2003
February 2, 2015Source: World Bank, January
2015Page 23
United States
China
European Union
Japan
BrazilRussian Federation
IndiaCanada
Australia
Rest of World
SHARE OF WORLD GDP, 2003
Country Shares of World GDP, 2013
February 2, 2015Source: World Bank, January
2015Page 24
United States
China
European Union
Japan
Brazil
Russian Federation
India
Canada
Australia
Rest of World
SHARE OF WORLD GDP, 2013
GDP by Country, 2003-2013
February 2, 2015Source: World Bank, January
2015Page 25
0 1E+13 2E+13
United States
China
European Union
Japan
Brazil
Russian Federation
India
Canada
Australia
Rest of World
GDP by Country and Area, 2003-2013
2013 2003
United States merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 26
United States merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 27
United States services trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014
Page 28
China merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 29
China merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 30
Canada merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 31
Canada merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 32
Mexico merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 33
Mexico merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 34
Germany merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 35
Germany merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 36
France merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 37
France merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 38
United Kingdom merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 39
United Kingdom merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 40
Italy merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 41
Italy merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 42
Japan merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 43
Japan merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 44
Brazil merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 45
Brazil merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014
Page 46
Russian Federation, merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 47
Russian Federation merchandise trade by region
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 48
India merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 49
India merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 50
South Africa merchandise trade, 2000-2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 51
South Africa merchandise trade by region, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 52
Saudi Arabia merchandise trade, 2000-2012
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 53
Saudi Arabia merchandise trade by region, 2012
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 54
Exports of manufactured goods, fuel and mining and
agricultural products (USD billions)
February 2, 2015
Source: World Trade
Organization, International Trade
Statistics, 2014
Page 55
Exports of manufactured goods, fuel and mining, and
agricultural products (USD billions)
February 2, 2015Presentation Title Page 56
Leading merchandise traders, exports vs. imports, 2013
(USD billions)
February 2, 2015
Source: World Trade
Organization, International Trade
Statistics, 2014
Page 57
World surface transportation routes
February 2, 2015Source: Trader2Trader Page 58
Panama Canal Expansion Project
February 2, 2015Presentation Title Page 59
U.S. intermodal and interstate highway corridors
February 2, 2015Source: Maritime Administration Page 60
Routes from Northeast Asia to Major North American
destinations
February 2, 2015
Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff,
Panama Canal Expansion Study,
2012
Page 61
Nicaragua Canal
February 2, 2015
Source: HKND Group and ERM,
Nicaragua Canal Project
Description, December 2014
Page 62
Nicaragua Canal dimensions
February 2, 2015
Source: HKND Group and ERM,
Nicaragua Canal Project
Description, December 2014
Page 63
Nicaragua Canal target vessels
February 2, 2015
Source: HKND Group and ERM,
Nicaragua Canal Project
Description, December 2014Page 64
Panama and Nicaragua canal design vessels and largest
containerships
February 2, 2015_ Page 65
Canal design vessels vs. largest containerships
Design vessels
Panama Nicaragua APM CSCL MSC
Canal Canal McKinney Globe Oscar
Maersk
TEU 12,000 25,000 18,340 19,100 19,224
Length m 366 500 400 400 395.4
Width m 49 72 59 58.6 59
Draft m 15.2 18 16 16 16
Containership fleet
February 2, 2015Source: Clarkson Page 66
100-999 teu 1000-2999 teu 3000+ teu 3000-7999 teu 8000-11999 teu 12000+ teu
Feeder Hdy/Sub-P Panamax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax
2013 685.7 3399.1 3764 3667.9 3541.8 2057.5
2014 659.3 3355.8 3617.9 3812.3 4089.9 2676.1
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Containership fleet by teu capacity, 2013-2014('000 teu)
Containership orderbook
February 2, 2015Source: Clarkson Page 67
100-999 teu 1000-2999 teu 3000+ teu 3000-7999 teu 8000-11999 teu 12000+ teu
Feeder Hdy/SubP Panamax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax
2013 7.7 255.8 34.9 478.9 1558.5 1673.5
2014 3.6 311.7 13 224.8 1175.3 1551.2
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Containership orderbook by teu capacity, 2013-2014('000 teu)
APM McKinney Maersk Triple E 18,340 TEU ship –
400 m long x 59 m wide x 16 m draft
February 2, 2015_ Page 68
CSCL Globe 19,100 TEU ship -
400 m long x 58.6 m wide x 16 m draft
February 2, 2015_ Page 69
MSC Oscar 19,224 TEU containership -
395.4 m long x 59 m wide x 16 m draft
February 2, 2015_ Page 70
Suez Canal
February 2, 2015Source: World Shipping Council Page 71
Suez Canal expansion project
February 2, 2015Source: Reuters, theloadstar.co.uk
through Al ArabiyaPage 72
New Suez Canal project
February 2, 2015Source: Suez Canal Authority Page 73
Northern Sea Route vs. Southern Sea Route via Suez
February 2, 2015_ Page 74
Arctic ice, 1980-2012
(million sq. km)
February 2, 2015
Source: National Snow and Ice
Data Center in Council on Foreign
Relations, The Thawing Arctic
Page 75
Northern Sea Route from China to Europe and
Northwest Passage from China to U.S. East Coast
February 2, 2015Source: Chinese Arctic and
Antarctic AdministrationPage 76
Trans-Siberian railway
February 2, 2015Source: TransSiberian Info Page 77
China to Europe via Kazakhstan railway
February 2, 2015_ Page 78
Block Train Service China - Europe
February 2, 2015Source: China Daily, 2013-10-30 Page 79
Bering Straits rail tunnel
February 2, 2015Source: InterBering LLC Page 80
Crude oil prices, 2005-2015
February 2, 2015Source: NASDAQ.com, January
26,2015Page 81
Expansion of Cuba trade
February 2, 2015Source: crowley.com; reuters.com Page 82
Thank you.
Larry Boorstein
Cell +1-703-625-8414
AECOM Technical Services, Inc.
2101 Wilson Blvd 8th Fl
Arlington VA 22201-3044
January 29, 2015
