Shifting Ground: Changing Attitudes to Immigration in the Long Term

1

S H I F T I N G

G R O U N D REPORT #1

CHANGING ATTITUDES TO IMMIGRATION

IN THE LONG TERM AND DURING

ELECTION CAMPAIGNS

[Job number] | [version] | [confidentiality status]

This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for Market Research, ISO 20252:2012, and with the Ipsos MORI Terms and Conditions which can be found at http://www.ipsos-mori.com/terms. © Ipsos MORI 2015.






0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Jan

-84

Se

p-8

4

May-8

5

Jan

-86

Se

p-8

6

May-8

7

Jan

-88

Se

p-8

8

May-8

9

Jan

-90

Se

p-9

0

May-9

1

Jan

-92

Se

p-9

2

May-9

3

Jan

-94

Se

p-9

4

May-9

5

Jan

-96

Se

p-9

6

May-9

7

Jan

-98

Se

p-9

8

May-9

9

Jan

-00

Se

p-0

0

May-0

1

Jan

-02

Se

p-0

2

May-0

3

Jan

-04

Se

p-0

4

May-0

5

Jan

-06

Se

p-0

6

May-0

7

Jan

-08

Se

p-0

8

May-0

9

Jan

-10

Se

p-1

0

May-1

1

Jan

-12

Se

p-1

2

May-1

3

Jan

-14

Se

p-1

4

Newsstories

Netmigration

Issuesindex

Source: LexisNexis; ONS; Ipsos MORI

News stories/Net migration (x10)

Issues Index (%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pre-war

Baby boomers

Generation X

Generation Y

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today?

RACE RELATIONS/IMMIGRATION


7% 8%

62%

37%

20%

28%

11%27%

Apr-11 Feb-15

Too much About the right amount Too little Don't know

Source: YouGov, April 2011; Ipsos MORI, Mar 2014, Dec

2014, Feb 2015

Generally speaking, do you think that the issue of immigration has been discussed in Britain too much, too little or about the right amount over the last few years/months?

By party (Feb 2015)

4%

7%

6%

2%

8%

41%

28%

17%

74%

37%

37%

28%

28%

21%

28%

18%

38%

48%

4%

27%

Conservatives

Labour

Lib Dems

UKIP

Total


R² = 0.7767

.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 22.00 24.00 26.00

Plaid Cymru

GreensLiberal Democrats

SNP

Labour

Total

Conservatives

UKIP

On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very positive”) MEAN

What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are

immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN

Source: Ipsos MORI polling; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British

adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)


R² = 0.7424

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.00 25.00

Total

What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are

immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN

On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very positive”) MEAN


adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

Pre-war

Gen X

Baby-boomers

Gen Y


Race relations

/ immigration

Read the Daily Mail

Owner-occupier

Vote Conservative

Read the Daily Express

Read the Sun

Work full-time

More likely to see as important

issue to Britain

Social classes AB

Read the Guardian

Satisfied with gov

1.81

1.65

1.65

1.32

1.29

1.16

0.63

Less likely to see as important

issue to Britain

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2004

0.68

0.58

7% of variation explained by the model

Race relations

/ immigration

Vote UKIP

Read the Sun

Vote Conservative

Read Daily Mail

White ethnic group

Aged 65+

More likely to see as important issue to Britain

Read the Guardian

Degree/post-grad

Vote Labour

Scotland

Aged 18-24

Greater London

Vote Green

4.75

1.69

1.67

1.61

1.44

1.41

0.55

0.56

0.63

0.68

0.68

0.52

0.74

Less likely to see as important issue to Britain

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2014

17% of variation explained by the model


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

* Up until Sept 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants

2001 General

Election

2005General

Election

2010 General

Election

2015 General

Election

Border controls relaxed for “A8” EU

Countries Border controls relaxed for

Romanians and Bulgarians

Highest concern

ever recorded (56%)

1% 3% 4% 1% 5%

55%58%

63%

42%

54%

33%28%

29%

32%

29%

11% 11%5%

25%

12%

Conservatives Labour Lib Dems UKIP Total

Changed a lot Changed a little Stayed the same Don't know

Thinking back to the last general election in 2010, since then would you say your views on immigration have changed a lot, a little, or stayed the same?

18%

30%

33%

62%

36%

56%

50%

57%

34%

50%

18%

14%

8%

3%

10%

7%

4%

4%

2%

2%

1%

2%

Lib Dems

Labour

Conservatives

UKIP

Total

Much more worried A little more worried

A little less worried Much less worried

Don't know

And would you say you have become more or less worried about immigration since 2010?

Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574

British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

Base: those who say their views have changed a lot or a little,

930 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)



Before: Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

After: Thinking about the General Election, which single issue was most important to you in helping you

decide which party to vote for?

33

34

31

31

38

41

31

48

60

41

2

2

3

3

5

7

8

9

15

25

Housing

Care for older and disabled people

Education/ schools

Taxation

Europe/ EU

Asylum and immigration

Poverty/Inequality

Benefits

Healthcare/ NHS/ hospitals

Managing the economy/ economic situation

After the election (week 7) Before the election (week 6)

Base of British adult community members 18-75 surveyed online:

Week 6 – 1,085, Week 7 – 1,042

Source: BBC Ipsos MORI Election Uncut

Community

N.B. Only 10 most frequently cited

issues shown.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/election2015/electionuncut.aspx

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/election2015/electionuncut.aspx


2001

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Jan

-93

Jun

-93

No

v-9

3

Ap

r-9

4

Se

p-9

4

Fe

b-95

Jul-

95

De

c-9

5

May

-96

Oct

-96

Mar

-97

Au

g-9

7

Jan

-98

Jun

-98

No

v-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

Se

p-9

9

Fe

b-00

Jul-

00

De

c-0

0

May

-01

Oct

-01

Mar

-02

Au

g-0

2

Jan

-03

Jun

-03

No

v-0

3

Ap

r-0

4

Se

p-0

4

Fe

b-05

Jul-

05

De

c-0

5

May

-06

Oct

-06

Mar

-07

Au

g-0

7

Jan

-08

Jun

-08

No

v-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Fe

b-10

Jul-

10

De

c-1

0

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Au

g-1

2

Jan

-13

Jun

-13

No

v-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Fe

b-15

News stories (000s) Net migration (0,000s) Issues index (%)

1997 2005 2015

New

s st

orie

s/N

et m

igra

tion

(x10

)

Issu

es I

ndex

(%

)

Denotes General Election

Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97GE

Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01

Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05

GE

GE


2010

GE


N/A

GE

Source: Based on LexisNexis annual data published in

the Daily Mirror April 2015,ONS; Ipsos MORI

34%

32%

18%

8%

8%

No change 1 point change 2 point change

3 point change 4 point+ change

On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very positive”)

Source: Ipsos MORI polling; nationally representative sample of 2,698

British adults 16+ (Feb – Jun 2015)

44%

37%

20%

February

47%

36%

17%

June

Neutral

Negative

Positive

Neutral

Negative

Positive

On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain? (0-4 negative; 5 indecisive; 6-10 positive)


adults 16+ (Feb – Jun 2015)

5%6%

19%

22%

44%

5%

Increased a lot Increased a little Remain the same Reduced a little Reduced a lot Don't know

February 2015 June 2015

5%5%

20%

22%

45%

4%

Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased a lot, increased a

little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot?

Source: Ipsos MORI polling; nationally representative sample of 2,698

British adults 16+ (Feb – Jun 2015)

67%

20%

10%

February

66%

19%

11%

June

Increased

Reduced

Remain the

same

Increased

Reduced

Remain the

same

Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased a lot, increased a little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot?


adults 16+ (Feb – Jun 2015)

0

50

100

150

200

250

30 Mar - 5 Apr 6 Apr - 12 Apr 13 Apr - 19 Apr 20 Apr - 26 Apr 27 Apr - 3 May 4 May - 7 May

Source: Kerry Moore, Cardiff Uni (2015)

Nexis UK search of national newspaper headlines, lead paragraphs and indexing using search terms:

immigration/migration/asylum/refugee

47

36

36

22

18

15

13

13

12

11

Source: Media Analysis http://electionunspun.net/ ; Issues Index Base

982 British adults 18+, 10th – 20th April 2015

Issues Index: What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Election Unspun: media content analysis by the Media Standards Trust

1419

563

495

386

353

350

264

229

220

201

NHS

Unemployment

Education/Schools

Low pay/minimum

wages/fair pay

Defence/Foreign

Affairs/Terrorism

Housing

Poverty/inequality

Pensions/Social

Security/Benefits

Economy

Health/NHS

Education

Immigration

Welfare

Defence/

Foreign policy

EU

Housing

Crime/Justice

Environment

Issues Index April 2015Media analysis

Number of mentions, 13-19 April 2015 % think each is an issue, 10-20 April 2015

Immigration/

immigrants

Economy

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the current government is dealing with immigration?

Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of British

adults 16+ (Feb-Oct 2015)

14% 12%

67%

62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Oct-

06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

Oct-

07

Ja

n-0

8

Ap

r-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Oct-

08

Ja

n-0

9

Ap

r-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Oct-

09

Ja

n-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ju

l-1

0

Oct-

10

Ja

n-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Oct-

11

Ja

n-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Oct-

12

Ja

n-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-1

3

Oct-

13

Ja

n-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Oct-

14

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oct-

15

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ap

ril 26-2

7,

2015

Marc

h 2

9-3

0, 2

015

Marc

h 1

-2, 201

5

Febru

ary

1-2

, 2015

Jan

uary

4-5

, 2015

Novem

ber

23-2

4, 2014

Octo

ber

26-2

7, 20

14

Se

pte

mber

28-2

9, 20

14

Au

gust 31-S

epte

mber

1, 20

14

Au

gust 3-4

, 2014

July

6-7

, 2014

Jun

e 8

-9, 2014

May 1

1-1

2, 2014

Ap

ril 13-1

4,

2014

Marc

h 1

6-1

7, 2

014

Febru

ary

16

-17, 2014

Jan

uary

19-2

0, 20

14

Decem

ber

8-9

, 201

3

Novem

ber

3-4

, 201

3

Octo

ber

6-7

, 2013

Se

pte

mber

8-9

, 2013

Au

gust 11-1

2, 2013

July

14-1

5, 2013

Jun

e 1

6-1

7, 2013

Ap

ril 28-2

9,

2013

Ap

ril 14-1

5,

2013

Marc

h 1

0-1

1, 2

013

Febru

ary

10

-11, 2013

Jan

uary

13-1

4, 20

13

Decem

ber

2-3

, 201

2

Novem

ber

4-5

, 201

2

Octo

ber

7-8

, 2012

Au

gust 19-2

0, 2012

July

22-2

3, 2012

Jun

e 2

4-2

5, 2012

May 2

7-2

8, 2012

Ap

ril 29-3

0,

2012

Marc

h 1

1-1

2, 2

012

Febru

ary

12

-13, 2012

Decem

ber

18-1

9, 2011

Novem

ber

20-2

1, 2011

Octo

ber

9-1

0, 201

1

Se

pte

mber

11-1

2, 20

11

Au

gust 14-1

5, 2011

July

17-1

8, 2011

Jun

e 1

9-2

0, 2011

May 2

2-2

3, 2011

Ap

ril 10-1

1,

2011

Marc

h 1

3-1

4, 2

011

Febru

ary

13

-14, 2011

Jan

uary

16-1

7, 20

11

Decem

ber

5-6

, 201

0

Novem

ber

7-8

, 201

0

Octo

ber

10-1

1, 20

10

Se

pte

mber

12-1

3, 20

10

Au

gust 8-9

, 2010

July

11-1

2, 2010

Jun

e 6

-7, 2010

May 1

6-1

7, 2010

May 2

-3, 2010

Ap

ril 18-1

9,

2010

Ap

ril 4-5

, 20

10

Marc

h 2

1-2

2, 2

010

Marc

h 7

-8, 201

0

Febru

ary

21

-22, 2010

Con Lab Lib Dem Other

Source: YouGov

12% 8%13% 16%

1%

2%2%

3%2%

15%17%

18% 18%

3%

57%66%

55% 55%

49%

15%8% 11% 10%

46%

Total Conservatives Labour Lib Dem UKIP

Completely To some extent Not very much Not at all Don't know

To what extent does [party’s] position on immigration reflect your own views ?


British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

10% 7% 10% 13% 12%

4%3%

6% 3% 4%

45%61%

32%37%

50%

41%

28%

52%47%

35%

Total Conservatives Labour Lib Dem UKIP

I am not very clear about …policies on immigration

I don't think…policies are strong enough to control immigration in the way I want

I think…policies on immigration are too tough

Don't know


British adults 16+ (Mar-Apr 2015)

On the topic of immigration, you said that the policies of [PARTY] do not completely reflect your

views. Why did you say that?

Base: all who say the party they intend to vote for does not completely

reflect their views on immigration

Ipsos MORI

3 Thomas More Square

London E1W 1YW

t: +44 (0)20 7347 3000

f: +44 (0)20 7347 3800

Bobby Duffy

Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute

[email protected]

Kully Kaur-Ballagan


[email protected]

Glenn Gottfried


[email protected]

Documents

Shifting Ground: Changing Attitudes to Immigration in the Long Term