Super-Regional Testbed to Improve Models of Environmental Processes on the U.S.

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts

Shelf Hypoxia Plans

John HardingNorthern Gulf Institute

SURA Planning Meeting 23-24 June 2010

Long Term Goal (5-10 yr)

Develop and transition to operations a coupled biogeochemical/ physical model to forecast the

real-time, synoptic scale development and evolution of physical and ecosystem processes in

the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Initial Focus (1-2 yr)

• Evaluate hydrodynamic impacts on current synoptic scale hypoxia modeling in the northern Gulf of Mexico

• Transition selected circulation components of this initial system as a baseline operational capability for application to: – real-time Coast Guard search and rescue operations – harmful algal bloom tracking – oil spill response applications

Motivation• Multi-Agency (federal & State) Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico

Watershed Nutrient Task Force action step: “Continue to reduce uncertainty about the relationship between nitrogen and phosphorus loads and the formation, extent, duration, and severity of the hypoxic zone, to best monitor progress toward, and inform adaptive management of the Coastal Zone.” (http://www.epa.gov/msbasin/actionitems.htm)

• A near real-time synoptic scale hypoxia forecast capability will allow the capture of the true temporal variability of formation, extent, duration and severity of the zone.

Frequency of Hypoxia 1985-2005(from N.N.Rabelais, LUMCON, 2006)

Fennel/ ROMS Model Grid, Bathymetry & Sample Salinity Snapshot for 28 Jul 93

Courtesy Dr. Rob Hetland, TAMU

What is impact of not having offshore forcing?

NRL Inter-American Seas Nowcast/ Forecast System(IASNFS) Real-Time Prediction

Courtesy Dr. Dong Shan Ko, NRL

Loop Current/Eddy Frontal Locationbased on satellite thermal image

IASNFS Real-Time PredictionSea Surface Salinity/Current

Courtesy Dr.Dong Shan Ko, NRL

• Deepwater Horizon Incident

• Envisat1 Image from CSTARS, May 21, 2010

• Courtesy Nan Walker, LSU Earth Scan Lab

Sub project 1: Assess hydrodynamic skill(nested vs. unnested hindcasts)

• Assess the skill at predicting currents, temperature and salinity (including stratification) of the Fennel/ ROMS shelf model – Not nested– Nested within the NOAA CSDL NGOM (POM)– Nested within the NRL IASNFS (NCOM) – Nested within the NRL/FSU GoM (HYCOM)

• Assess same for the NOAA CSDL nGOM (FVCOM) nested within the NOAA CSDL NGOM (POM)

• Allows a five way test bed for skill assessment between two different shelf models and three basin models using the same data and comparable evaluation techniques.

Sub-project 2a: Assess hypoxia skill(unnested vs. nested hindcasts)

• Assess the skill at predicting oxygen distributions of the coupled Fennel/ ROMS model – Not nested– Nested within the NOAA CSDL NGOM (POM)– Nested within the NRL IASNFS (NCOM) – Nested within the NRL/FSU GoM (HYCOM)

• Allows evaluation of the ecosystem model consistent with the hydrodynamic model evaluation

NRL Coastal Circulation Model coupled with EPA Ecosystem Model

(Nested in NRL IASNFS)

EPA Sampling Stations EPACOM Model Domain

Courtesy Dr. Dong Shan Ko, NRL

Sub-project 2b: Assess hypoxia skill(different hypoxia approaches)

• Assess the skill at predicting oxygen distributions of the coupled Fennel/ ROMS model and the coupled EPA GEM-Ko/ NCOM model both nested with the NRL IASNFS.

• Allows cross comparison of two hypoxia model approaches

GEM: Eldridge & Roelke (2010) Ecosystem Model, 3D modifications by Ko

NAVOCEANO AMSEAS–NCOM Domain and Bathymetry

Courtesy Dr. Frank Bub, NAVOCEANO

Sub-project 3: Evaluate and Transition NAVOCEANO AMSEAS

• Evaluate and transition (from pre-operations to operations) the 3 km AMSEAS (NCOM) nowcast/forecast system;

• Provides near-term operational capability relevant to both future operational hypoxia applications as well as:– real-time Coast Guard search and rescue operations – harmful algal bloom tracking – oil spill response applications *

• Begin transition of NGI Developmental OceanNOMADS to NOAA NCDDC OceanNOMADS – Planned NODC version of NCDC National Operational Model Archive and

Distribution System

Note: NAVOCEANO pre-operational AMSEAS and NRL R&D IASNFS among others are already being applied in NOAA ORR DHI forecasts

Project Leads

• John Harding, NGI – Shelf Hypoxia Modeling Team

• Rob Hetland, TAMU – Sub project 1: Assess hydrodynamic skill

(nested vs. unnested hindcasts)

• Katja Fennel, Dalhousie – Sub-project 2a: Assess hypoxia skill (unnested vs. nested hindcasts); – Sub-project 2b: Assess hypoxia skill (different hypoxia approaches)

• Jerry Wiggert, USM – Sub-project 3: Evaluate and Transition NAVOCEANO AMSEAS

Project Partners

• Frank Bub, NAVOCEANO *• Scott Cross, NOAA NCDDC *• Pat Fitzpatrick, MSU • Rick Greene, EPA NHEERL *• Courtney Harris, VIMS• Matt Howard, GCOOS• Dong Shan Ko, NRL

• John Lehrter, EPA NHEERL *• Alan Lewitus, NOAA CSCOR *• Bruce Lipphardt, U Del• Steve Morey, FSU• Rich Patchen, NOAA CSDL *• Eugene Wei, NOAA CSDL

* Unfunded Advisors