Shark River Slough – Preliminary Water Quality Analysis...South Florida Natural Resources Center Problem • TP hovering at 90 th percentile - Long-Term Limit • Should center around

South Florida Natural Resources Center

Shark River Slough –Preliminary Water Quality

AnalysisTechnical Oversight Committee Meeting

May 31, 2011

Everglades Program TeamDonatto Surratt, EcologistEverglades National Park

1


Problem• TP hovering at 90th percentile - Long-Term

Limit• Should center around 50th percentile

25.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

Sep-

99

Sep-

00

Sep-

01

Sep-

02

Sep-

03

Sep-

04

Sep-

05

Sep-

06

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

FWM

TP

(ppb

)

50th Percentile

90th Percentile

Long-Term Limit In EffectDecember 31, 2006

12 month FWM TP

Total Phosphorus

Concentrations in the

Everglades Protection

Area

Refuge: Inflow = 95.0Interior = 10.7

WCA-2A: Inflow = 32.0Interior = 12.9

WCA-3A: Inflow = 35.3Interior = 8.3

Park: Inflow = 9.0Interior = 5.6

Water Years 2005-09FWM InflowsGM Interior TP concentrations(parts per billion)

Modified from 2011 SFER


Water Management Changes• 1970 – operated under minimum delivery schedule• 1984 – begin Experimental Program• 1985 – Rainfall plan (55% east; 45% west)• 1994 – ENR online• 1998 – STA-6 Section 1 online• 1999 – STA-5 Cells 1A, 1B, 2A, 2B online• 1999 – end Experimental Program• 1999 – Interim Structure and Operational Plan• 2000 – STA-1W and STA-2 online• 2001 – Interim Operation Plan• 2004 – STA-1E Central and Western Flow-way online• 2004 – STA-3/4 online 4


Methods• Rain gage

– 3AS• Stage gages

• WCA3A: 3A-3, 3A-4, 3A-28• ENP: NE1, NP201, P33,

P34, P36• Flow

• L29: S12A, S12B, S12C, S12D, S333

• Water quality sites• WCA3A: CA311, CA315,

CA318, S151• ENP: S12s, S333, NE1,

NP201, P33, P34, P35, P36

5


Methods

• POR: 1987 - 2010• Water quality parameters

– TP, Na:Ca• We focused this analysis on TP

because of Consent Decree considerations

• Na:Ca ratio used to assess changes in site impacts from canal water 6


Methods• Data Preparation

• Outliers Multi-parameter assessment• MDL ½ MDL

• Statistics and Tools• Change-point analysis (Change-Point Analyzer)

• Used stage, flow, water quality, all sites• Positive autocorrelation corrected through

aggregations• Remaining outliers corrected using ranking

• Descriptive statistics (XLSTAT)• Mann-Whitney (XLSTAT)• TP Loads (Excel)• TP Trends (XLSTAT)

7


Methods• TP Trends

• Natural-log transformed• Removed seasonality and dealt with

autocorrelation:• Regressed against: stage, stage rise, Julian

date• Residual analyzed for changes through time

for:• 1987-2010• 1994-2010• 2002-2010 8


1994 change-point

9

2002 change-point1996 change-point

Examples of Change-Points


Analytical Periods• 3 periods derived from change-point analysis• Relationships between those 3 periods and

water management operations• 1987-1993 (Iterations of Experimental Program)• 1994-2001 (Iterations of Experimental Program)• 2002-2010 (ISOP and IOP)

10


Rainfall

11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Rain

(inc

hes)

Period I1987-1993

Period II1994-2001

Period III2002-2010

Annual Flow

12

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

I II III

S12C

I II III0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000 S9

a b c a b c

Period Period

•In Period II, flow increased through S12A-C and decreased through S333

•In Period III, flows through S12A-B decreased because of seasonal closures resulting from ISOP and IOP operations

Flow

(acr

e-ft)


Stage

13

6

8

10

12

I II III

3Asa b b

Period

Stag

e(ft

-NG

VD

)

3As = Average of 3A-3, 3A-4, 3A-28


Canal Na:Ca Ratio

14

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5 S9

I II III0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5 S12C

I II III

•Na:Ca ratio in Northern Everglades generally greater than 0.6•Na:Ca ratio in unimpacted Park historically less than 0.34•Average Na:Ca at S12A declined below 0.34 in Period II (1994-2001)

Period Period

Na:

Ca

1

10

100S12C

I II III1

10

100 S9

I II III

Canal TP

15

Period Period

a a a a b b

•TP when structures were flowing declined after Period II at S12A-C•rainfall and stages in WCA3A were higher in Period II

•No declines in TP concentrations were observed in discharges to L29

TP (µ

g L-

1 )

FWM TP

16

I II III

1

10

100 S9

I II III

1

10

100 S12Ca a b a a a

•FWM TP declined after Period II at S12A-C•S333 remained similar to the previous periods

•No declines in FWM TP were observed in discharges to L29•FWM TP discharged to L29 increased in Period III

FWM

TP

(µg

L-1 )

Period Period


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 10 20 30 40 50

Perc

enti

le

FWM TP (µg L-1)

Period I Period II Period III

•Period I: 90% of the FWM TP above 8 ppb•Period II: 65% of the FWM TP above 8 ppb

•Period III: 70% of the FWM TP above 8 ppb

S12s + S333 FWM TP Concentrations

17

I II III0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 NP201

Slough Na:Ca

18

I II III0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 P34

Na:

Ca

•Slough sites were influenced by L29 canal water through all periods with average Na:Ca consistently greater than 0.6

•P34 is least impacted by canal influence with average Na:Ca below 0.34 in all periods

a b b a a a

Period Period

0.001

0.01

0.1

NP201

I II III

Slough TP

19

0.001

0.01

0.1

P34

I II III

a b a

TP (m

g L-

1 )

a b b

•TP concentrations in the slough generally declined in Period II•TP at sites closest to the canal increased again in Period III

•Spikes above 8 ppb among the slough sites occurred •Period I: 30 to 60% of sampling events•Period II: 15 to 55% of sampling events•Period III: 10 to 35% of sampling events

Period Period

S151 = -0.73 ppb yr-1

S12C = -0.14 ppb yr-1

S12D = -0.10 ppb yr-1

NE1 = -0.29 ppb yr-1

P34 = -0.11 ppb yr-1

P36 = -1.1 ppb yr-1

P35 = -0.37 ppb yr-1

TP change per year over entire POR

20

S151 = -0.37 ppb yr-1

NE1 = -0.29 ppb yr-1

TP change per year (1994-2010)

21

S151 = -0.07 ppb yr-1

S12C = -0.36 ppb yr-1

S12D = -0.36 ppb yr-1

NP201 = -0.11 ppb yr-1

NE1 = -0.18 ppb yr-1

TP change per year (2002-2010)

22

Annual TP Loads

23

I II III0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000 S9

I II III0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000 S12C

Period Period

TP L

oad

(kg)

•Loads delivered to L29 were greatest in Period II•There were no differences in loads to the Park among the 3 periods from the S12s and S333

a b a a a a

Soil TP 2007

24Top 10 cm of soil Data collected by University of Florida in 2007


Discussion

25

• TP concentrations delivered to both WCA3A and Park are higher than desired

• Higher rainfall and stage in WCA3A during Period II diluted TP concentrations delivered to the Park

• Water dilution of TP was evident in L29 by relatively lower Na:Ca in Period II


Discussion

26

• TP concentrations delivered to the Park during Period III were higher than in Period II– Rainfall in WCA3A during Period III was lower

than Period II– WCA3A stages were higher in Period III than

Period I – Decreasing WCA3A stage below a certain level

likely will result in elevated TP delivered to the Park


Possible Next Steps• Include other water quality parameters in the

analysis• Improve understanding of WCA3 dynamics and

influence on the Park• Track water and nutrient budgets

• Expand the hydrologic analysis• Improve understanding of rainfall influence on

water deliveries to the Park• Investigate ground water influence on surface

waters in the Park27


Recommended Monitoring

• Enhance monitoring to explicitly capture early signs of water quality changes• periphyton (composition and tissue TP)• soil TP, biogeochemical soil core (baseline)• water quality transects from each structure• vegetation monitoring

28

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

I II III

S12A

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

I II III

S12B

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

I II III

S12C

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

I II III

S12D

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

I II III

S333

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

I II III

S9

I II III0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000 S140

I II III0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000 S190

Annual Flow

Flow

(ac-

ft)Fl

ow (a

c-ft)a b a a b b

Reference Slide-12Period Period

Period

Flow

(ac-

ft)

a b c

a b b a b b

a b b

a b b

a b c

Canal SitesPeriod I: 1987-1993Period II: 1994-2001Period III: 2002-2010


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

I II III

3As

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

I II III

NE1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

I II III

NP201

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

I II III

P33

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

I II III

P34

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

I II III

P36

Sta

ge (f

t)S

tage

(ft)

Period Period Period

a b b a b b a b b

a b b a b b a b b

Period I: 1987-1993Period II: 1994-2001Period III: 2002-2010 Reference Slide-13

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8 S12A

I II III0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8 S12B

I II III0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8 S12C

I II III

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8 S9

I II III

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8 S333

I II III0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8 S151

I II III0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8 S12D

I II III

Na:

Ca

Na:

Ca

Na:

Ca

Period

Period Period


a b a ab a b ab a b

a a b a b a ab b a

a a a

Reference Slide-14

1

10

100S12A

I II III 1

10

100S12B

I II III 1

10

100S12C

I II III

1

10

100 S9

I II III

1

10

100S333

I II III 1

10

100S151

I II III1

10

100S12D

I II III

Period

Period Period

TP (µ

g L-

1 )TP

(µg

L-1 )

TP (µ

g L-

1 )a b b

a b ba b b

a b ba b b

a b c

a a b

Reference Slide-15


I II III

1

10

100 S12B

I II III

1

10

100 S12C

I II III

1

10

100 S12A

I II III

1

10

100 S12D

I II III

1

10

100 S9

I II III

1

10

100 S333

1

10

100S140

I II III 1

10

100S190

I II III

FWM

TP

(µg

L-1 )

Period Period

Period


FWM

TP

(µg

L-1 )

Reference Slide-16

FWM

TP

(µg

L-1 )

a b b

a b b

a b c

a a a

a b b

a b b

a a b

a b b

II III0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 CA311

I II III0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 NE1

I II III0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 P34

I II III0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 P36

I II III0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 P33

I II III0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 P35

I II III0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 NP201

II III0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 CA315

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2 CA315

III


Na:

Ca

Na:

Ca

Na:

Ca

a b b a b b a b b

a a a a b c a b b

a b a b

Reference Slide-18

0.001

0.01

0.1

CA311

IIIII0.001

0.01

0.1

CA315

II III

0.001

0.01

0.1

NE1

I II III 0.001

0.01

0.1

NP201

I II III 0.001

0.01

0.1

P33

I II III

0.001

0.01

0.1

P34

I II III 0.001

0.01

0.1

P35

I II III 0.001

0.01

0.1

P36

I II III

0.001

0.01

0.1

CA318

III


TP (µ

g L-

1 )TP

(µg

L-1 )

TP (µ

g L-

1 )

a a b a b a a b a

a b b a b b a b b

a a a a

Reference Slide-19

I II III0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000 S12A

I II III0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000 S12B

I II III0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000 S12C

I II III0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000 S12D

I II III0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000 S9

I II III0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000 S333

I II III0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000 S140

I II III0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000 S190

TP L

oad

(kg)

TP L

oad

(kg)

Period Period

Period


a a a a a a a a a

a a a a a a a b a

Reference Slide-23

TP L

oad

(kg)

Documents

Shark River Slough – Preliminary Water Quality Analysis...South Florida Natural Resources Center Problem • TP hovering at 90 th percentile - Long-Term Limit • Should center around