Share Tips Expert Commodity Report 29032011

8/6/2019 Share Tips Expert Commodity Report 29032011

1/8

Daily Commodity Market Update as on Tuesday, March 29, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

GOLD 20806 20806 20645 20728 -0.49

SILVER 55416 55544 54635 55426 -0.09

GOLD 1421.4 1422.8 1415.95 1418 -0.22

SILVER 37.14 37.22 36.82 36.9 -0.65

PLATINUM 1740.49 1746 1730 1736.5 -0.42

Bullion prices inched lower weighed down by a firmer

dollar, but violent unrest in the Middle East as well as an

unfolding nuclear crisis in Japan lent support.SPOT $

MCX


CRUDE 4731 4740 4677 4719 -0.49

N.GAS 203.7 205.8 201.7 205 0.83

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices fell on Libya's rebels successes against

forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi, the stronger dollar and

continued concern about demand from Japan. Natural gas

ended positive as forecasters predicted that the chill felt

across much of the northern tier of the U.S. would extend

MCX

CRUDE 105.43 105.76 103.6 103.98 -1.37532


-

. .

into April, lifting gas demand.

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

MCX

. . . . - .

ZINC 105.75 105.75 103.7 104.45 -1.68

NICKEL 1212.1 1212.1 1174.4 1177.5 -3.33

LEAD 120.5 120.5 119.05 119.75 -1.25

ALUMINIUM 116.55 116.85 115.7 116.15 -0.9

COPPER 9519.75 9542.75 9471.25 9538.75 -0.17 625

ZINC 2340 2355 2331 2350.5 0.38 -625

Base metals ended down as a stronger dollar and weak

investor sentiment drives a selloff across the markets.

LME STOCKLM E

COPPER

ZINC

439900

734650. .

NICKEL 26100 2625 26020 26350 0.56 -168

LEAD 2628 2631 2618.25 2628 0 -175

ALUMINIUM 2625 2631 2610.75 2611.25 -0.23 3150

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX

19015.24 5701.3 2303.1 1310.19 8296.52 12197.88 9383.81 2991.18 2059.88 23121.01 76.19

NICKEL

LEAD

ALUMINIUM

124086

283800

4606100

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

0.38 0.25 -0.57 -0.27 -0.3 -0.19 -0.84 0.24 0.19 0.23 0.08

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2/8

OPEN

20806

HIGH

LOW

20645

-0.49

20806

% CNG

VOLUME

CLOSE

20728

FUTUR

E

-101

7660

RE CNG

28068

OI

INTRADAY LEVELS

X

GOLD

Gold dipped in the line of expectation slumping to a six-day low as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar

P.P. 20726

SUP 1 RES 1

20647 20808

SUP 2 RES 2

20565 20887

SUP 3 RES 3

20486 20969

MC

. , .ounce, the lowest price since March 18.The U.S. dollar was boosted by hawkish comments from

regional Fed officials. The Fed should hike interest rates from the current range near zero to 2.5%

within a year under a plan Plosser unveiled Friday. Plosser's comments were followed by St. Louis

Fed President, who said on Saturday that lengthening the 'extended period' of low rates could

encourage a liquidity trap. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is

currently indicating 48.8, where as 50DMA is at 20692.92 and gold is trading above the same and

getting support at 20647 and below could see a test of 20565 level, And resistance is now likely to

be seen at 20808, a move above could see prices testing 20887.

55416

HIGH

55544

54635

OPEN

LOW

UR

E

OI

15102

81462

-0.09

VOLUME

RE CNG

55426

% CNG

VERFU

P.P. 55202

SUP 1 RES 1

54859 55768

SUP 2 RES 2

INTRADAY LEVELS

Silver dip on weak global trend lower off take silver opened flat at 55416 and dipped till 54635 on

tracking pressure from base metal and crude oil breaking 55000 level mark but latter recovered and

test the fresh high of 55544 and finally closed at 55426 tracking weakening global trend. Reduced

offtake in the spot market at existing high levels also dampened the trading sentiment in futures.

Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 70.92, where

-52

MCXS

I

54293 56111

SUP 3 RES 3

53950 56677

Page No. 2

as 50DMA is at 50254.28 and silver is trading above the same and getting support at 54859 and

below could see a test of 54293 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 55768, a move

above could see prices testing 56111.

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3/8

4731

HIGH

OPEN

4719

% CNG

-0.49

VOLUME

4740

LOW

4677CLOSE

FUTURE

14699

RE CNG

-23

INTRADAY LEVELSCrude oil extended losses slumping to the lowest price in four days after rebel forces in Libya

126846

OI

CRUDE

P.P. 4712

SUP 1 RES 1

4684 4747

SUP 2 RES 2

4649 4775

SUP 3 RES 3

4621 4810

captured key oil towns over the weekend, easing fears over a prolonged disruption to supplies.

According to media reports out of Libya, rebel forces have regained control over the major oil ports

of Brega and Ras Lanuf in eastern Libya, fuelling hopes of a quick resolution to the countrys ongoing

civil war. Libya is Africas biggest holder of crude oil reserves and produces roughly 1.6 million

barrels of crude a day. According to the US EIA, countries in North Africa and the Middle East were

responsible for 36% of global oil output and held 61% of proved reserves in 2010. Now crude is

getting support at 4684 and below could see a test of 4649 level, and resistance is now likely to be

seen at 4747, a move above could see prices testing 4775.

MC

HIGH

438.5LOW

431.1TUR

EOPEN

438.5

RE CNG

% CNG

-1.5

VOLUME

87278

OI

19556

432.6

PPERFU

P.P. 434.1

SUP 1 RES 1

429.6 437.0

SUP 2 RES 2

-6.5

INTRADAY LEVELSCopper yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -1.5% down at 432.6 on renewed

worries about Japan's crisis, weak demand from top consumer China and rising stocks persuaded

investors to retreat from assets perceived to be risky. China's apparent demand for refined copper

slumped 12.5 percent in February, data showed last week. Selling was also triggered by news that

the operator of Japan's crippled nuclear plant had given out mistaken radiation readings. The

radiation is evidently much higher than first thought, which is raising fears that the regions aroundMCXC

O

426.7 441.5

SUP 3 RES 3

422.2 444.4

the nuclear power plant will be contaminated for years and could therefore be uninhabitable. For

today's session market is looking to take support at 429.6, a break below could see a test of 426.7

and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 437, a move above could see prices testing

441.5.

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4/8

105.75

HIGH

OPEN

104.45

% CNG

-1.68

VOLUME

105.75

LOW

103.7CLOSE

UTUR

E

6307

RE CNG

-1.75

INTRADAY LEVELSZinc yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -1.68% down at 104.45 as market

20405

OI

X

ZINC

P.P. 104.6

SUP 1 RES 1

103.5 105.6

SUP 2 RES 2

102.6 106.7

SUP 3 RES 3

101.5 107.6

p ayers were concerne a e e era eserve s quan a ve eas ng mone ary po cy w

come to an end in June, and were also worried about the ultra-high nuclear radiation level

near the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Meanwhile, the housing markets and banking

system in Spain were disappointing, triggering investor concerns that Spain will likely suffer

Portuguese-style debt crisis. Those negative factors caused panic sell-offs by investors. For

today's session market is looking to take support at 103.5, a break below could see a test of

102.6 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 105.6, a move above could see

prices testing 106.7.

MC

HIGH

1212.1LOW

1174.4UR

EOPEN

1212.1

RE CNG

% CNG

-3.33

VOLUME

40823

OI

7130

1177.5

KELFU

P.P. 1188

SUP 1 RES 1

1164 1202

SUP 2 RES 2

-39.2

INTRADAY LEVELSNickel yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -3.33% down at 1177.5 tracking LME

nickel futures for delivery in three months opened at USD 27,050/mt and closed at USD 26,203/mt,

down by USD 871/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 27,050/mt and the lowest

price at USD 26,175/mt. LME base metal prices largely ended with losses over night, as market

sentiment was dampened due to investors' concern that China's weakening demand and buying as

well as growing inventories will curb investment demand. The second round of quantitative easingMCXN

I

1150 1226

SUP 3 RES 3

1126 1239

monetary policy from the US will last until June, and the US Federal Reserves indicated possible

interest rate hike. For today's session market is looking to take support at 1163.9, a break below

could see a test of 1150.3 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1201.6, a move above

could see prices testing 1225.7.



5/8

OPEN

116.55

HIGHR

% CNG

-0.9

VOLUME

116.85

LOW

115.7CLOSE

116.15

UMFU

T

3171

OI

1573

RE CNG

Aluminium yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.9% down at 116.15 as news hit

-1.05

INTRADAY LEVELSLUMINI

P.P. 116.2

SUP 1 RES 1

115.6 116.8

SUP 2 RES 2

115.1 117.4

SUP 3 RES 3

114.5 117.9

n e mar e a e e era eserve w ncrease enc mar n eres ra e recen y n or er ocurb inflationary pressure, helping support US dollar index. Later, the President of European Central

Bank said it will likely raise interest rate in April, causing the euro to rebound. LME aluminum prices

opened at USD 2,640/mt last night, and the stronger US dollar index dragged down LME base metals

prices, with LME aluminum prices even falling to a low of USD 2,612.3/mt and breaking through the

5-day moving average. LME aluminum prices finally closed at USD 2,617/mt, down USD 24/mt or

0.91% compared with the previous trading day. For today's session market is looking to take

support at 115.6, a break below could see a test of 115.1 and where as resistance is now likely to be

seen at 116.8, a move above could see prices testing 117.4.

MCX

LOW

TURE

OPEN

203.7

HIGH

205.8

201.7

6243

RE CNG

OI

VOLUME

19325

0.83

205

.GAS

F % CNG

P.P. 204.2

SUP 1 RES 1

202.5 206.6

SUP 2 RES 2

Natural gas yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.83% up at 205 as forecasters

predicted that the chill felt across much of the northern tier of the U.S. would extend into April,

lifting gas demand. Earlier in the day, natural gas futures rose to USD4.557, the highest price since

February 3, amid indications of increased demand after forecasts for colder than average

temperatures in the U.S. next week. However, the rally prompted some investors to sell their

position on profit taking and lock in gains on speculation that the market's recent rally had

1.7

INTRADAY LEVELS

CXNA

200.1 208.3

SUP 3 RES 3

198.4 210.7

accounted for the boost to heating needs. Stocks were 12 billion cubic feet lower than last year at

this time and 34 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 1.578 trillion cubic feet. For today's

session market is looking to take support at 202.5, a break below could see a test of 200.1 and

where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 206.6, a move above could see prices testing 208.3.

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6/8

DAILY SPR EAD IN SILVER - MCXDAILY SPR EAD IN GOLD - MCX

ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE AUG MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT

APRIL 20728 291 619 MAY 55426 632 1317

JUNE 21019 328 JULY 56058 685AUG 21347 SEPT 56743

Spread between Gold APR & JUN contracts yesterday

ended at 291, we have seen yesterday that the gold

market had traded with a negative node and settled -

0.49% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 263

- 291.

Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday

ended at 632, we have seen yesterday that the silver


0.09% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of

632 - 745.

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY JUNE MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE

APRIL 4719 54 97 APRIL 432.6 5.7

MAY 4773 43 JUNE 438.3

JUNE 4816

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

Sprea etween cru e MAR & APR contracts yester ay

ended at 54, we have seen yesterday that the crude


0.49% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 54

58.

DAILY SPR EAD IN ZINC - MCX

Sprea etween copper APR & JUN contracts yester ay

ended at 5.7, we have seen yesterday that the copper


1.5% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 3.5

5.8.

DAILY SPR EAD IN NI CKEL - MCXARKET

MONTH MONTH

MARCH 104.45 1.25 MARCH 1177.5 10.8

APRIL 105.7 APRIL 1188.3

Spread between zinc MAR & APR contracts yesterday

ended at 1.25, we have seen yesterday that the zincmarket had traded with a negative node and settled -

1.68% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 -

1.35.

Spread between nickel MAR & APR contracts yesterday

ended at 10.80, we have seen yesterday that the nickelmarket had traded with a negative node and settled -

3.33% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of

7.90 - 11.2.PREAD

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY

APRIL 205 5 APRIL 1116.3 -152.3

MAY 210 MAY 964

S read between natural as APR & MAY contracts S read between menthol oil APR & MAY contracts

DAILY SPREAD I N MENTHOL - MCXDAILY SPREAD IN N AT. GAS - MCX

yesterday ended at 5.00, we have seen yesterday that the

natural gas market had traded with a positive node and

settled 0.83% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of4.7 - 5.3.

yesterday ended at -152.30, we have seen yesterday that

the menthol oil market had traded with a range bound

node and settled 0% flat. Spread yesterday traded in therange of -153.4 to -138.5.



7/8

DAY TIME CURRENCY Fo re cast P re viou s

1:10am USD 0 0

DATA

FOMC Member Evans SpeaksL

11:30am EUR 5.9 6

All Day EUR 0.004 0.005

12:15pm EUR 0.006 -0.0056:30pm USD -0.031 -0.024

7:30pm USD 64.9 70.4

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0

0

0

Tue

German Prelim CPI m/ m

French Consumer Spending m/ mS&P/ CS Composite-20 HPI y/ y

CB Consumer Confidence

GfK German Consumer Climate

ONOMI

C

DATA

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

Wheat crop arrival in Punjab and Haryana is set to get delayed by 7-10 days from the wheat procurement season

starting April 1, as the crop is still not fully matured due to extended cold conditions, along with few spell of rain last

month. Harvesting of wheat crop is expected to start from April 10 in Punjab as crop is still not fully ripened across

EC 0

0

0

0

E

the state. Therefore, there will be a delay in crop arrival in mandis," Punjab Agriculture Department Joint Director

Gurdial Singh told PTI here. Similarly, the neighbouring state Haryana will also see delay in wheat arrival due to

unripened crop. "The wheat arrival in mandis will delay by at least 7 to 10 days in the state," Haryana Agriculture

Department Additional Director B S Duggal said. Extended low temperature, along with rain lashing the northern

region, especially in February, has caused delay in the ripening of the crop, officials said. Wheat arrival, though in

small quantity, normally starts from April 1 with farmers commencing harvesting in few pockets of both Punjab and

Haryana. Experts after visiting major wheat-growing areas of the states pointed out the colour of wheat was still

green and it had not turned 'golden-yellow', which was a sign of maturity. However, farm experts asserted the

prolonged cold conditions in north would help in raising the yield of the wheat crop. On the back of favourable

CA

N

Uwea er con ons, o un a an aryana are eye ng w ea ou pu o a onnes n a season, up y

per cent over last year's production.

Within days of the union government lifting the ban on sugar exports, mills in Uttar Pradesh are getting into purchase

deals with factories in Maharashtra, which produce sugar at lowest cost and are closer to sea ports, to ship the

sweetener. Falling domestic sugar prices amidst a surplus production and mounting arrears to farmers have pushed

mills to lobby with the government to allow shipments. Uttar Pradesh being a landlocked state, sugar producers have

to bear the cost of trans ortin the consi nments to orts. While awaitin their ex ort uota these mills are ettin

WSYO

. ,

in touch with producers in Maharashtra to buy sugar there and ship it right across the ports. Though the central

government has permitted exports of 5 lakh tonne, it has not released a formal notification yet. The January 2011

notification had given two options to factories: They could either export sugar from their own production or source it

from some other factory to minimise the transportation cost. If the January 2011 provisions continue, Uttar Pradesh

mills are most likely to purchase sugar from Maharashtra. The state is the lowest-cost sugar producer in the country

and the country's main port, JNPT, is closer to its mills. Sources said a top private sugar manufacturer has blocked

export licences of Uttar Pradesh mills for export of 27,000 tonne sugar.

N

India's overnight indexed swaps (OIS) were lower on Monday, helped by the lower-than-expected government

borrowing in the first half of the fiscal year starting April, but tight cash conditions kept the upward pressure on the

short-end. The benchmark five-year swap rate was at 7.94 percent, three basis points lower on the day after easing

to 7.93 percent, its lowest since March 17. The one-year swap rate was at 7.44 percent, down 1 basis point on the

day after easing to 7.42 percent, its lowest since March 18. The government said it would borrow 60 percent of its


full 2011/12 year borrowing target of 4.17 trillion rupees by end-September.


8/8

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recipients. Any alteration, transmission, photocopied distribution in part or in whole or reproduction of any form of the

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Share Tips Expert Commodity Report 29032011