Shaping the FutureOHT 1.1 MODULE 1: REDEFINING THE PRESENT

Shaping the FutureShaping the Future OHT 1.OHT 1.11

MODULE 1:MODULE 1:

REDEFINING THEREDEFINING THEPRESENTPRESENT


TERMINAL OBJECTIVETERMINAL OBJECTIVE

The students will be able to The students will be able to employ creative approaches to employ creative approaches to identify problems having an identify problems having an impact on organizational impact on organizational effectiveness.effectiveness.


ENABLING OBJECTIVESENABLING OBJECTIVES

The students will:The students will:

• Use an environmental scanning process to Use an environmental scanning process to identify existing or potential organizational identify existing or potential organizational problems.problems.

• Analyze the effect of paradigms on creative Analyze the effect of paradigms on creative problem identification.problem identification.

• Identify specific fire service paradigm shifts Identify specific fire service paradigm shifts which would improve future organizational which would improve future organizational effectiveness.effectiveness.


World

U.S.State

Community

Fire Officer

Fire Dept.


What are the causes/sources of What are the causes/sources of ambiguity in today'sambiguity in today's

public sector organizations? public sector organizations?


"Future sense involves the paradoxical "Future sense involves the paradoxical attitude of not completely attitude of not completely understanding today's chaos, not understanding today's chaos, not knowing what the future will be, and knowing what the future will be, and yet believing we can be a part of yet believing we can be a part of creating the kind of future we desire." creating the kind of future we desire."

(Gelatt, 1993)(Gelatt, 1993)


EXPANDING YOUR EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVEPERSPECTIVE

CertaintyCertaintyandand

ControlControl

FlexibilityFlexibilityandand

AdaptabilityAdaptability

VS.VS.


EXPANDING YOUR EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)PERSPECTIVE (cont'd)

LimitedLimitedPerspectivePerspective

TheThe"Big Picture""Big Picture"



InternalInternalFocusFocus

ExternalExternalFocusFocus

VS.VS.



Looking Looking for the for the Right Right

AnswerAnswer

VS.VS.

Asking Asking the the

Right Right QuestionQuestion

??!!



EliminatingEliminatingor Avoidingor Avoiding

ConflictConflict

AcceptingAcceptingConflict asConflict as

HealthyHealthy

VS.VS.



Being Being Uncomfortable Uncomfortable

with with AmbiguityAmbiguity

FindingFindingMeaning andMeaning andPattern AmidPattern Amid

the Clutterthe Clutter

VS.VS.


ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING

Monitoring and tracking Monitoring and tracking what's happeningwhat's happening

• Current and futureCurrent and future

• Internal and externalInternal and external


"Change itself has changed. It has "Change itself has changed. It has been so rapid, so complex, so been so rapid, so complex, so turbulent, and so unpredictable turbulent, and so unpredictable that it is now called 'white-water that it is now called 'white-water change'." change'."



BASIC SYSTEMS THEORYBASIC SYSTEMS THEORY

TRANSFORMATIOTRANSFORMATIONN

Environm

entEnvironment

PPooll iicciieess MMiissss iioonn SSttrruu ccttuu rree

LLeeaadd eerrsshh iipp

PPrroocceedduu rreess PPrreepp aarraatt iioonn

INPUTINPUTPeoplePeopleInformationInformationMoneyMoneyMaterialsMaterialsPolicyPolicy

OUTPUTOUTPUTServicesServicesProductsProductsPersonPersonChangesChanges

FEEDBACKFEEDBACK

EnvironmentEnvironment


PURPOSES OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING

• Understand/Manage the presentUnderstand/Manage the present

• Predict the futurePredict the future

• Develop strategiesDevelop strategies


"In our normal thought processes, most "In our normal thought processes, most of us are problem-solvers. We gather of us are problem-solvers. We gather and analyze facts and data to reach an and analyze facts and data to reach an answer or a solution...answer or a solution...

"As environmental scanners, however, "As environmental scanners, however, we start from a known position and use we start from a known position and use facts and data to develop facts and data to develop questions, questions, not not answers, and answers, and problems, problems, not solutions..."not solutions..."

(Stoffels, 1982)(Stoffels, 1982)


EXTERNAL ISSUES AND TRENDS

• Information and technologyInformation and technology

• Economic and financialEconomic and financial

• Governmental/PoliticalGovernmental/Political

• Human resourceHuman resource

• Service deliveryService delivery


INTERNAL ISSUES AND TRENDS

• Changing employee valuesChanging employee values

• Organizational culture shiftsOrganizational culture shifts

• Responsiveness/Effectiveness of the Responsiveness/Effectiveness of the organizational structureorganizational structure

• Relevance/Clarity/Acceptance of the Relevance/Clarity/Acceptance of the mission/philosophymission/philosophy


"SWOT" ANALYSIS"SWOT" ANALYSIS

• SStrengthstrengths

• WWeaknesseseaknesses

• OOpportunitiespportunities

• TThreatshreats


FORMING AND SHIFTING PARADIGMS

A paradigm isA paradigm is

• A point of viewA point of view

• A frame of referenceA frame of reference

• A set of rulesA set of rules


PARADIGM PARADIGM DISADVANTAGESDISADVANTAGES

• "Blind spots""Blind spots"

• Paradigm paralysisParadigm paralysis


SHIFTING YOUR PARADIGMSHIFTING YOUR PARADIGM

FlexpertiseFlexpertise

• Continually adapt, innovate, and Continually adapt, innovate, and changechange

• Unfreezing and refreezing Unfreezing and refreezing paradigmsparadigms


"Making up one's mind, an essential "Making up one's mind, an essential skill of the past, may now be no skill of the past, may now be no more important than a new essential more important than a new essential skill of the future--learning how to skill of the future--learning how to change one's mind." change one's mind."



SETTLERS VS PIONEERS

Accept Accept status quostatus quo

Resist changeResist change

Low risk-takersLow risk-takers

Rely on "the Rely on "the numbers"numbers"

Want it to be "safe"Want it to be "safe"

Challenge Challenge status quostatus quo

Seek out changeSeek out change

High risk-takersHigh risk-takers

Rely on intuitionRely on intuition

Make it "safe" for Make it "safe" for settlerssettlers

Challenge Challenge status quostatus quo

Seek out changeSeek out change

High risk-takersHigh risk-takers

Rely on intuitionRely on intuition

Make it "safe" for Make it "safe" for settlerssettlers


REFRAMING

• Changing the lensChanging the lens

• Altering our perspectiveAltering our perspective

• Using a different vantage pointUsing a different vantage point

• RefocusingRefocusing


SUMMARYSUMMARY

• Environmental scanningEnvironmental scanning

• ParadigmsParadigms

• Adapt, innovate, and changeAdapt, innovate, and change

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Shaping the FutureOHT 1.1 MODULE 1: REDEFINING THE PRESENT