Shaping the Economic Development Strategy Local Economic Assessment – The Evidence Housing Services Forum - March 2011 Ephraidge Rinomhota Snr Economic

Shaping the Economic Development Strategy

Local Economic Assessment – The Evidence

Housing Services Forum - March 2011

Ephraidge RinomhotaSnr Economic Research Officer

Economic Development

Local Economic Assessment Evidence - Housing Services Forum

What Will Be Covered

• The Local Economic Assessment • Industry Structure• Economic Performance• The Labour Market • Employment Land • Housing, Jobs and Growth• Infrastructure • Future Growth Prospects• Summary


Local Economic Assessment

Legal duty from April 2010

A comprehensive & robust diagnosis:

– Understanding local economic conditions & impact on residents & business

– Identify strengths, weaknesses, challenges/threats & opportunities – Identify the local economic geography & linkages to wider

economy – Local constraints to economic growth & employment & risks to

delivering sustainable economic growth.

NB. The need for Local Economic Assessments was endorsed by the Coalition Government.


MK Economy- Key Statistics

• Population – 240,985 (2010) and 305,000 in 2033• Households – 101,363 (2010)• Working Age Population (16 – 64/5 yrs) 159,300• Number of Businesses – 10,971 (2008)• Employment – employees – 142,620• Employment – employees – 137,240 (2009)• Employment – self-employed – 11,300 (7.5%) (2009)• Employment Rate – 72.5% (June 2010)• Economic Activity Rate – 80.4% (June 2010)• GVA - An economy worth £6.9 billion (2008) • Unemployment (claimants) – 5,874 (January 2011)• Unemployment Rate (claimants) – 3.7% (January 2011) • Young people in leaning – 6,500 (83.6% of the cohort) in January

2011


MK Economic Functional Area - The South East Midlands


Strategic Location of Milton Keynes


MK Population 2008 - 2026

Projected Population Growth, MK, 2009-2026

220000230000240000250000260000270000280000290000300000310000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

Source: MKC & ONS


Population by Age Group, MK and England, 2009

Population Distribution, MK and England, 2009

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

Aged under 1 year

Aged 1 - 4 years

Aged 5 - 9 years

Aged 10 - 14 years

Aged 15 - 19 years

Aged 20 - 24 years

Aged 25 - 29 years

Aged 30 - 34 years

Aged 35 - 39 years

Aged 40 - 44 years

Aged 45 - 49 years

Aged 50 - 54 years

Aged 55 - 59 years

Aged 60 - 64 years

Aged 65 - 69 years

Aged 70 - 74 years

Aged 75 - 79 years

Aged 80 - 84 years

Aged 85 and overEngland

Milton Keynes

Source: NOMIS


Industry Structure, MK

Employment Trends by Sector, MK, 1998-2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

%

Agriculture & Fishing

Energy & Water

Manufacturing

Construction

Distribution, Hotels &Restaurants Transport &Communications Banking, Finance &InsurancePublic Admin, Educ &Health Other services

Source: NOMI


Knowledge-Based Economy

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Reading Milton Keynes Brighton andHove

Southampton AylesburyVale

Basingstokeand Deane

Employees

Business Units

Source: ONS


Employment By Size Band, MK 2008

Employment by Sizeband, MK, 2008

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.0

Agr

icul

ture

and

fishi

ng

Ene

rgy

and

wat

er

Man

ufac

turin

g

Con

stru

ctio

n

Dis

trib

utio

n,ho

tels

and

rest

aura

nts

Tra

nspo

rt a

ndco

mm

unic

atio

ns

Ban

king

, fin

ance

and

insu

ranc

e

Pub

licad

min

istr

atio

n,ed

ucat

ion

&

Oth

er s

ervi

ces

%

1-10 employees 11-49 employees 50-199 employees 200 or more employees

Source: NOMIS


GVA – MK and the South East Midlands Area

Gross Value Added, 2007

012345678

Cor

by

Dav

entr

y

Ket

terin

g

Sou

thN

orth

ampt

onsh

ire

Bed

ford

Che

rwel

l

Dac

orum

Ayl

esbu

ry V

ale

Luto

n

Nor

tham

pton

Cen

tral

Bed

ford

shire

Milt

on K

eyne

s

£ bi

llion

Source: NOMIS


Occupational Structure, MK, SE and England

Resident Occupational Structure, 2009-2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Managers and

Senior

Professional Associate Prof

& Tech

Administrative

and

Secretarial

Skilled Trades Personal

Service

Sales and

Customer

Service

Process, Plant

and Machine

Elementary

%

Milton Keynes

EnglandSouth East

Source: NOMIS


Skills of the Residents, MK , South East & England, 2009

NVQ4 NVQ3 NVQ2 NVQ1Other

QualificationNoQualification

2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009

MiltonKeynes 29.7 33.7 46.4 50.3 64.3 66.6 81.7 81.7 8.2 9 10 9.3

South East 31.5 32.6 50.8 52.6 68.9 69 83.4 83 7.7 7.8 8.9 9.1

England 28.7 29.9 49.3 48.9 65.4 65 78.9 79 8.8 9 12.3 12.3

Source: NOMIS


Commuting Patterns, MK, 2001 and 2008

MK 2001 MK 2008

In

38,000

Out

22,000

In

53,000

Out

18,000

Net In – 16,000 Net In – 35,000Source: ONS


Unemployment rate, (Claimant Count) MK, SE, & UK 2000 to 2011

Source: NOMIS

0.0

0.5

1.01.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.54.0

4.5

5.0Jan-0

1

Jan-0

2

Jan-0

3

Jan-0

4

Jan-0

5

Jan-0

6

Jan-0

7

Jan-0

8

Jan-0

9

Jan-1

0

Jan-1

1

Date

%

UKMKSE


Unemployment & Job Vacancies , MK, January 09 to January 2011

Unemployment and Job Vacancies, MK January 09 to January 2011

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Nu

mb

er

Job Vacancies

Unemployment

Source: NOMIS


Employment Land By Use Type

Source: MKC


Population, Households and Employment, MK, 2008 - 2009

Population, Dwellings and Employment Level, MK, 1998-2009

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Nu

mb

er

EmploymentLevelDwellings

Population

Working AgePopulation

Source: NOMIS & MKC


Housing Completions

Net and Affordable Housing Devolpment Completions, MK, 1991-2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1991

- 1

992

1992

- 1

993

1993

- 1

994

1994

- 1

995

1995

- 1

996

1996

- 1

997

1997

- 1

998

1998

- 1

999

1999

- 2

000

2000

- 2

001

2001

- 2

002

2002

- 2

003

2003

- 2

004

2004

- 2

005

2005

- 2

006

2006

- 2

007

2007

- 2

008

2008

- 2

009

2009

- 2

010

Num

ber

of C

ompl

etio

ns NetCompletions

AffordableCompletions

Source: MKC


Infrastructure – Transport

Source: MKSM Transport Report


Projected GVA Growth 2010 to 2030

Projected Percentage Change in Total GVA, MK, South East & UK, 2010-2030

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

% C

hang

e UK

South East

Milton Keynes

Source: CE


Summary

• Local Economic Assessment

• The MK Economy – The Evidence

• The SWOT Analysis

• Areas for Intervention

Thank You.

[email protected]

Housing Services Forum

Milton Keynes Economic Development Strategy

Pam Gosal

Head of Economic Development

3 March 2011

Local Economic Assessment

Legal duty from April 2010

A comprehensive & robust diagnosis:

Understanding local economic conditions & impact on residents & business

Identify strengths, weaknesses, challenges/threats & opportunities

Identify the local economic geography & linkages to wider economy

Local constraints to economic growth & employment & risks to delivering sustainable economic growth


Local Economic Assessment - conclusions

• Diverse and competitive knowledge based economy• Economic regeneration• Skills and learning• Business support• Marketing MK• Infrastructure


MK ED Strategy extensive consultation

Setting PrioritiesSetting PrioritiesMKELP Board

MKELP Advisory Committee

TOG

MKC DMTs

Economic Development and Enterprise Select Committee

Internal MKC Staff

CLT

LEA Public consultation

Economic Development StrategyEconomic Development Strategy21th February – 11th March 2011 – Organisational Consultation

In agreement with partners sign off in April 2011


MK ED Strategy Consultation – partnership approach

• Local context – what is the current position in MK, economic trends and issues

• Long Term Economic Vision – where do we want to be in 2034

• National Context – how MK fits into governments national agendas

• Key Priorities – what are our key priorities and how they fit into the LTEV and other key documents

• Measuring Economic Performance – what are we going to measure so that we can see that the work we are doing is helping the economic situation in MK

• Action Plans – what are the objectives that will address the each priority and who is doing what to deliver these objectives and what are the gaps


MK ED Strategy Key Priorities

Diverse and competitive knowledge based economy. Create an environment that will foster business and employment growth within a diverse, more knowledge based and competitive economy by encouraging innovation, enterprise and skills improvement. (Supports LTEV Pillars 1,2 & 3; Foundation 1)

Economic regeneration. Improve access to training and job opportunities, especially for those with no or low skill levels, to provide greater opportunities for individuals to obtain sustainable employment. (Supports LTEV Foundation 1 & Underpinning 2)

Skills and learning. Improve the overall skills and qualifications profile of the resident population through education and training provision, to ensure that the skills of the resident population are able to meet the needs of employers, especially in relation to higher level skills and the development of the University Centre Milton Keynes. (Supports LTEV Pillars 2, & 3; Foundations 1& 2)

Business support. Encourage business growth through focused interventions such as support for innovation, start-ups and ensuring an appropriate range of commercial space is available. (Supports LTEV Pillar 1 & 3; Foundations 1 & 2)

Articulating a compelling MK Offer. Promote Milton Keynes as a premier location for inward investment and as a visitor destination. (Supports LTEV Pillars 1,2 & 3; Foundations 2 & 4; & Underpinning 1)

Enabling infrastructure. Create, maintain and improve the appropriate infrastructure for growth, especially in relation to transport and digital infrastructure. (Supports LTEV Pillars 1,2 & 3; Foundations 2 & 3)

Documents

Shaping the Economic Development Strategy Local Economic Assessment – The Evidence Housing Services Forum - March 2011 Ephraidge Rinomhota Snr Economic