Shane Cherry

Midge Simpson

Critical Infrastructure Protection / Resilience Simulator

May 29, 2009

Stuart Walsh: 208.526.4246Stuart.Walsh@inl.gov

Agenda

• CIPRsim Background and Genesis

• Technology Objectives

• Modeling and Simulation Framework

• Potential Applications

CIPRsim Genesis

• Build high fidelity model of cellular and power grid interdependencies

• Offer extensible critical infrastructure M&S framework

• Predict failure of key nodes and cascading events by scenario & geographic area

Initially Developed to Support Larger DoD Effort

Key CIPRsim Concepts

• Proven Standard Simulation Framework– Distributed Architecture Using IEEE 1516 protocols: High Level

Architecture (HLA)

• Federated Design, built for Extensibility, Scalability and Compatibility– Utilize Best Available Models Whenever Possible: Legacy and New– Physics Based Simulations– Compatible with existing COPs (iCAV, TRITON, Google Earth, etc.)

• Simultaneous Simulation Interactions– Real-Time and Faster than Real-Time Asynchronous Simulation

Communication– Cascading Events and Predictive Assessments

Basis for Federated Design Concept

• No Single Simulation Can Satisfy Needs of All Users– Users Differ in Interests and Requirements for Fidelity and Detail

• Simulation Developers Vary in Their Knowledge of Domains to be Simulated– No Single Set of Developers is Expert Across All Details Even in One

Domain

• No One Can Anticipate All the Uses of Simulation and All the Ways Simulations Could be Fully Combined

• Future Technology, Tools and Improved Models Must be Incorporated

Kuhl, Weatherly and Dahmann - 1999

Modeling, Simulation - Infrastructure Emulation

Power Grid Modeling

PC Tides

Disaster Models

Wireless Communication Modeling

DoD Sim Framework & Visualization

Data

Scene Generation

HSIP GoldFERCIndustry

• Real World AssessmentReal World Assessment

• Crisis Response PlanningCrisis Response Planning

• Course of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis

• Prepare and Train ForcesPrepare and Train Forces

• Manage CrisisManage Crisis

• Restore OperationsRestore Operations

Operational Utility

Restoration

AnalysisResponse

PlanningPreparation

Distributed – Federated - Simulation

Threat Event

Geographical Area Asset Data

OperationsCommand

Post

Threat Model

Wireless Model

RTDS andApplication

Server

Hazard Simulation and Visualization

HURRICANE WINDS

STORM SURGE AND FLOODING

EARTHQUAKE - PGA

Sim Sim time: time: 24 hrs24 hrs

WILDFIRE PROPOGATION

Cascading Effects and Infrastructure Status

ELECTRICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE

INFRASTRUCTURE COMPONENT IDENTIFICATION AND STATUS

“Play-by-Play” Simulation Results

Supported JFCOM Noble Resolve 08

• Generated Area of Interest Specific Models for Indiana to Support Noble Resolve Experiment

– Earthquake and After-Shock Models– Electrical Infrastructure Model– Wireless and Emergency Communications Model

• Utilize Unified Vector Data Set – HSIP Gold – As Primary Data Supporting Electrical and Communications Model Inputs

• WMS Feeds to iCAV, TRITON, KML to Google Earth

Compatibility

TRITON

DHS iCAV

Google EarthMAK Stealth

Extensibility• Multiple Hazard Models – Potential

Framework for an “All Hazards Environment” Utilizing “Models of Choice”

– Hurricane – U.S. Navy PC Tides 2.0– Earthquake – USGS Boone, Joyner, and Fumal

1997– Wildfire – U.S. Forest Service FARSITE– Cyber Threat Emulation– Manually Initiated Effects

• CI / KR Sectors and Components– Electric Power– Wireless Communications– Process Control Systems– Others coming…

Sim Sim time: 24 time: 24

hrshrs

Scalability

• INL Model Assets– Electrical Infrastructure

• Switchgear

• Breakers

• Transformers

• Tampa / St. Petersburg Model Assets– Electrical Infrastructure

• Substation

• “High” Voltage Transmission Lines

Potential Applications – FY09

• Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense – Homeland Defense and America’s Security Affairs (OASD-HD&ASA), Defense Critical Infrastructure Program (DCIP)– Enhance Electric Grid Simulation and Situational Awareness Capabilities

RTDS: High-Fidelity, ComponentLevel Simulations

Enhanced Predictive Grid State AnalysisRegional Level Power Simulations

Power System StatusData Feeds

Potential Applications – FY09

• Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense – Homeland Defense and America’s Security Affairs (OASD-HD&ASA), Defense Critical Infrastructure Program (DCIP)– Disaster Response: Improving Security of DoD Communications

Systems and Networks During Support to Civil Authorities

DoD Assets Connected toCivilian Infrastructure Networks

DoD Support to Civil Authorities

Introduced Vulnerabilitiesto DoD Networks

Potential Applications – FY09

• DHS National Cyber Security Division (NCSD), Control System Security Program (CSSP)– Simulate Cyber Vulnerability Exploits to Industrial Control

Systems and Resulting Cascading Effects on Critical Infrastructure Sectors

Virtual World Depiction

Cascading Effects: Real World Depiction

Cyber ThreatsInteractive Play

Hardware-in-the-Loop

Network, ControlSystem and

Infrastructure Models

Back Up Slides

Example fragility function

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Wind Speed (mph)

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f F

ail

ure • Failure of actual assets is stochastic

Standard methodology – fragility models

Data from a variety of sources

Damage Assessment