Shadow Government Statistics - ShadowStats Flash Commentary, … · Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, ... Payroll Survey Birth-Death Revisions

Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 1

ShadowStats Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439

May 2020 Employment and Unemployment, Recession, FOMC

June 9, 2020

____________

May 2020 Payroll Gain and Unemployment Drop Were Not Credible

Extreme Pandemic-Shutdown Disruptions to Labor Market Conditions, and

Surveying of Same, Heavily Distorted Bureau of Labor Statistics Reporting

Headline Employment and Economic Bottom Bouncing

Likely Are Still a Month or Two Away

Second-Quarter 2020 Real Gross Domestic Product Remains on Track for

Its Deepest Ever Annualized Contraction, Order of Magnitude 50% (-50%)

Third- and Fourth-Quarter GDP Could See Some Bottom Bouncing,

Depending on the Magnitude and Success of Reopening Efforts

Recession Began Fourth-Quarter 2019, per the National Bureau of Economic Research,

Recovery - Regaining the Pre-Recession Peak - Could Take Years, per ShadowStats

FOMC June 10 Press Conference: Fed Funds Likely Will Hold at 0.00% to 0.25%;

Economic Forecasts Probably Will Not Be Overly Optimistic

____________

Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, 2020


____________________

Contents – Flash Commentary (Issue No. 1439)

Overview 3

In May, Another 4.9 Million Unemployed Were Misclassified as “Employed” 3 May Headline Labor Details Were Not Credible, Heavily Disrupted by the Pandemic 3 FOMC Headline Economic Review Looms on Wednesday (June 10th) 3 NBER Declared a Recession in Place 4q2019 (Quarterly), February 2020 (Monthly) 3 New- and Continuing Claims for Unemployment Show the Economy Still In Downturn 3

May 2020 Household and Payroll Employment Surveys5

Headline May U.3 of 13.3% Really Was 16.4% per the Bureau of Labor Statistics 5 2q2020 Household Employment on Track for Annualized 54.5% (-54.5%) Contraction 5 2q2020 Payroll Employment on Track for Annualized Decline of 43.6% (-43.6%) 5 May Payrolls Gained 2.5 Million (1.8 Million Net of Revisions) 5 April Payroll Employment Plunged by a Downwardly Revised 20.7 Million 5 May Labor Statistics Were Heavily Disrupted and Scrambled by the Pandemic Shutdown 5

Graph 1: Headline Monthly Unemployment Rate 1948 to May 2020 ....................................................................................... 6

Graph 2: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Through Week-Ended May 30, 2020 ................................................... 7

Graph 3: Year-to-Year Change in Initial Claims Through Week-Ended May 30, 2020 ............................................................ 7

Table I: Headline, “Corrected” and New-Claims Based Unemployment Estimates ................................................................. 8

Graph 4: Headline Erroneous March, April and May 2020 U.3, U.6 and ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment .................. 9

Graph 5: BLS- and ShadowStats-Corrected March, April and May U.3, U.6 and ShadowStats Alternate .............................. 9

Graph 6: Headline U.3 Unemployment Rate, Inverted Scale (1994 to May 2020) ................................................................. 10

Graph 7: ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate, Inverted Scale (1994 to May 2020) ................................................... 11

Graph 8: Civilian Employment-Population Ratio (1994 to May 2020) ................................................................................... 11

Graph 9: Participation Rate (1994 to May 2020) ................................................................................................................... 12

May Payroll Employment Rebounded 2.5 Million, Down Year-to-Year by 11.8% (-11.8%) 12 Downwardly Revised April Plunge of 20.7 (20.7) Million Was Worst Ever 12 Payroll Survey Birth-Death Revisions Showed Weaker Near-Term Growth 12

Graph 13: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 1939 to May 2020 .................................................................................. 13

Graph 14: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 1939 to May 2020, Year-to-Year Change .............................................. 13

Graph 15: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 2000 to May 2020 .................................................................................. 14

Graph 16: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 2000 to May 2020, Year-to-Year Change .............................................. 14

Graph 17: Birth-Death Model Net Revisions (Lower, Lighter Blue Line) ............................................................................... 15

Graph 18: Birth-Death Model Net Revisions (Lower, Lighter Orange Line) .......................................................................... 15

____________________



Overview

In May, Another 4.9 Million Unemployed Were Misclassified as “Employed”

May Headline Labor Details Were Not Credible, Heavily Disrupted by the Pandemic

FOMC Headline Economic Review Looms on Wednesday (June 10th)

NBER Declared a Recession in Place 4q2019 (Quarterly), February 2020 (Monthly)

New- and Continuing-Claims for Unemployment Show the Economy Still In Downturn

Formal Recession in Hand Faces a Long Road to Recovery. The National Bureau of Economic

Research (NBER) pronounced yesterday, June 8th, that the U.S. economy began its latest recession off a

Fourth-Quarter 2019 peak, timed to a monthly peak of February 2020 (see NBER Recession Statement).

This was an unusual move, where the current economic collapse was triggered by the Coronavirus

Pandemic shutdown of U.S. business and social functioning, an extraordinary extraneous event, not

affected by regular drivers of domestic economic activity. The NBER’s decision was made public one

day in advance of today’s opening of the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee’s

(FOMC) two-day June 2020 meeting.

Where the NBER is the defining authority on timing the U.S. Business Cycle, please note that all graphs

in this Commentary that show recession bars now have a new bar on the far right-hand side of the plot.

That recession bar will end when the new “Recession” hits its “Trough,” which could be in the next

quarter or two. The problem will be the “Recovery,” defined by when the economy recovers its “Pre-

Recession Peak,” again Fourth-Quarter 2019 and February 2020 in the current circumstance. Given the

severe structural damage already done to domestic economic and systemic stability by the Pandemic

Shutdown, full recovery likely will take a number of years, perhaps much longer than the protracted 14-

quarter, 3½ year “Recovery” from the Great Recession (see Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue

No. 1438 and Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437).

Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Still on Track for Massive 50% (-50%) Annualized Contraction. Despite

the unexpected bottom-bouncing in the May 2020 headline labor statistics, based on two months of

reporting, Second-Quarter 2020 Employment, reflecting the BLS-corrected estimates, is on track for a

Second-Quarter 2020 annualized quarterly contraction of 54.5% (-54.5%), which is fully consistent with a

Second-Quarter 2020 annualized Real GDP contraction of about 50% (-50%).

FOMC Not Likely to Alter Rates, in Context of Ongoing Economic Collapse. Tomorrow’s (June

10th) FOMC Statement and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Press Conference, likely will indicate

https://www.nber.org/cycles/june2020.html

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/csbe1438.pdf





unchanged Fed interest rate policy, with the targeted Federal Funds Rate holding at its current 0.00% to

0.25% range, amidst the continued provision of unlimited systemic liquidity—growth in the Money

Supply. The Fed’s economic outlook likely will be bleaker and more cautionary than the Administration

would like to hear.

Despite Some Limited Headline Bottom-Bouncing, Collapsed May Labor Numbers and Economic

Conditions Continued Amidst Explosive, Record Money Supply Growth. Also discussed in Special

Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. 1438, unrestricted money supply growth, in the context of the

Pandemic-induced economic collapse, raises the risk of domestic hyperinflation. With May 2020 Money

Supply showing continued, explosive record annual growth, that circumstance will be reviewed in

pending Flash Update No. 1440, a day or two subsequent to forthcoming FOMC announcements.

The balance of today’s Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 reviews the headline May 2020

Unemployment and Payroll Employment reporting, beginning on Page 5. Unstable reporting of current

Labor Market conditions primarily reflects Pandemic disruptions of and distortions to the employment/

unemployment surveying. Independent of BLS Surveying and based on actual filings, New Claims for

Unemployment Insurance show the economy still in a downturn, albeit one that could be nearing a trough

in activity.

____________________

For the Benefit of Subscribers, New Circumstances, Including Breaking News, Are Highlighted in

the Daily Update. Rapidly shifting headlines, reporting details, intervening events, unusual developments

and schedule changes—all are covered in the Daily Update section of the ShadowStats Home Page. For

example, any unusual developments out of tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting will be highlighted, with an initial

assessment in the Daily Update, within an hour or so of release, as will have been case (within three

hours) of the morning’s release of the May 2020 CPI.

For recent economic and the latest market and systemic assessments, see Special Commentary, Issue No.

1429 (FOMC Panic), Special Commentary, Issue No. 1430 (Systemic Solvency), Flash Commentary,

Issue No. 1433 (Retail Sales Benchmarking), Flash Commentary No. 1434 (1q2000 GDP), Flash

Commentary No. 1436 (Cass Freight Index®), Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437

(Economic Update) and Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. 1438 (Hyperinflation Risks).

Your questions and comments always are welcomed. Please call or e-mail me any time. Leave a

message if your call goes to Voicemail. I shall be back to you.

John Williams (707) 763-5786, [email protected]



http://www.shadowstats.com/


http://www.shadowstats.com/article/cssc1429.pdf



http://www.shadowstats.com/article/csfu1433.pdf



http://www.shadowstats.com/article/cflash1436.pdf

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/cflash1436.pdf



mailto:[email protected]



May 2020 Household and Payroll Employment Surveys

Headline May U.3 of 13.3% Really Was 16.4% per the Bureau of Labor Statistics

2q2020 Household Employment on Track for Annualized 54.5% (-54.5%) Contraction

2q2020 Payroll Employment on Track for Annualized Decline of 43.6% (-43.6%)

May Payrolls Gained 2.5 Million (1.8 Million Net of Revisions)

April Payroll Employment Plunged by a Downwardly Revised 20.7 Million

May Labor Statistics Were Heavily Disrupted and Scrambled by the Pandemic Shutdown

The Unexpected Happy Jobs Gain and Unemployment Decline in May 2020 Likely Were Due to

Seriously Flawed, Pandemic-Savaged Household and Payroll Surveying. Today’s Flash

Commentary, Issue No. 1439 focuses on the May labor data as reported Friday, June 5th, by the Bureau

of Labor Statistics (BLS). Following economic crashes in April, the headline drop in the May

unemployment rate and bounce in May payroll employment broadly were unexpected, running counter to

other numbers and otherwise were not credible. Some questions raised by the Administration’s political

opposition as to possible political manipulation are understandable, but are not realistic. I am directly and

personally familiar with several instances of various direct political manipulations of headline government

data, but I have never known a manipulator to publish up front that (April) 7.5 million or (May) 4.9

million unemployed people were misclassified as “employed” in an unemployment report.

Data credibility issues here are tied to Pandemic-related BLS surveying instabilities and reporting quality.

The flawed headline numbers likely are within the bounds of not being statistically meaningful, but even

that metric is not realistically assessable in these uncharted waters. Consider some of the issues that

disrupted the headline reporting of the May 2020 Payroll and/or the Household Surveys discussed in the

BLS’s Impact of the Coronavirus-Pandemic on The Employment Situation for May 2020.

Massive Pandemic-Driven Disruptions to BLS Household and Payroll Surveying Have Left the

Headline Employment and Payroll Data Not Credible. Distortions in or Changes Made to May:

Unusually low/declining Survey response levels in both Series (companies that have gone out of

business may not answer their phones).

Collection of data was down by 10% to 20% in the month for Construction, for example, where

related jobs surged by 446,000 in the month?

May Household Surveying was down by 15.1%, (-15.1%), deepening from 12.6% (-12.6%) in

April and 9.5% (-9.5%) in May. The bad news is declining along with the level of the surveying?

No BLS surveying visits as previously, only by phone or computer.

Revised Methodologies (Payroll Survey Birth-Death Model was revised negatively).

Related downside revisions to Payroll Reporting.

Revised Seasonal Adjustments (Payroll Survey).

https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-may-2020.pdf



Counting 4.9 million May “unemployed” as “employed” was the third consecutive month of the

BLS misclassifying a large number of “unemployed,” see Table I and Graphs 1, 4 to 9. Neither

the BLS nor the Census Bureau is able to straighten this out.

Headline details run meaningfully counter to New and Continuing Claims for Unemployment,

despite definitional conflicts, similarly running at variance with private surveys and reporting.

Although Not Particularly Credible, Headline May 2020 Payrolls, and Employment and

Unemployment Both Improved, Now Minimally Off the Historic Levels of Pandemic Deterioration.

In the context of heavily disrupted economic and social and surveying conditions, the May Payroll Survey

showed May Jobs “bottom-bouncing,” jumping by 2.5 million, following a negatively revised record

plunge of 20.7 (-20.7) million jobs [previously 20.5 (-20.5) million] in April.

The Household Survey headline U.3 Unemployment Rate narrowed to 13.26% in May, from 14.71% in

April. In context of 4.9 million May Unemployed being misclassified as “Employed,” versus 7.5 million

so “misclassified” in April, actual May U.3 was about 16.4%, down from 19.5% in April, per the BLS.

Official headline May U.6 was 21.19%, down from 22.78% in April, with the parallel headline

ShadowStats Alternate Measure at 34.0%, down 35.4%, on top of the headline U.3.

Graph 1: Headline Monthly Unemployment Rate 1948 to May 2020

Corrected for the misclassified workers, plus marginally attached workers (including discouraged workers

who have been discouraged for less than a year, and those working part-time because they cannot find a

full-time job), U.6 unemployment was about 24.2% in May, down from 27.5% in April, with the May

ShadowStats Alternate at 36.5%, down from 39.3% in April. Since BLS will use only the official

headline rates going forward, ignoring the misclassifications, official rates and numbers will continue to

be used with the Graph and Table on the Alternate Data Tab - Inflation on the www.ShadowStats.com

website.

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0%

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1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018

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loyed

Headline U.S. Unemployment and Corrected May 2020 1948 to May 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]

Official Recession

Current Headline Series (1992 to May 2020)

BLS Corrected Estimate for May 2020 U.3

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts




Initial Claims for unemployment continue to surge at a slowing pace, as do the ongoing claims. While

this indicates the economy still is declining, the economy likely will bottom out in the next month or so.

Graph 2: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance through Week-Ended May 30, 2020

Graph 3: Year-to-Year Change in Initial Claims through Week-Ended May 30, 2020

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Initial Claims for Unemployment Thousands of New Claims, Weekly to May 30, 2020

Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, U.S. Department of Labor]

-300%

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Initial Claims for Unemployment Year-to-Year Percent Change, Weekly to May 30, 2020

Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Department of Labor]



Table I shows three sets of headline U.3 unemployment rate estimates. The first line shows the headline

U.3 unemployment reporting. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has noted in its monthly press

releases covering March, April and May 2020 data, that a large number of unemployed people were

misclassified in headline reporting as “employed.”

Per the BLS, understatement of the unemployed was 1.5 million in March, 7.5 million in April and 4.9

million in May. The BLS’s corrected U-3 estimates are shown in the second row of numbers.

The third row of numbers shows the ShadowStats forecasts of U.3, based on analysis of weekly New and

Continuing Claims for Unemployment Insurance, which were closer to the BLS-Corrected U.3 than the

BLS Headline Reporting. The May ShadowStats U.3 forecast was well above either headline estimate.

Table I: Headline, “Corrected” and New-Claims Based Unemployment Estimates

[Graphs 4 and 5 follow on the next page.]

Measure Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20

Actual

Headline U.3 3.5% 4.4% 14.7% 13.3%

BLS-Corrected U.3 3.5% 5.3% 19.5% 16.4%

Claims-Based Forecast 3.5% 5.0% 21.0% 27.8%

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, ShadowStats.com

Month

Headline Unemployment Rate vs. BLS "Corrected"

Versus ShadowsTats Forecast Based on New Claims

Measure Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20

Actual

Headline U.3 3.5% 4.4% 14.7% 13.3%

BLS-Corrected U.3 3.5% 5.3% 19.5% 16.4%

Claims-Based Forecast 3.5% 5.0% 21.0% 27.8%

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, ShadowStats.com

Month

Headline Unemployment Rate vs. BLS "Corrected"

Versus ShadowsTats Forecast Based on New Claims



Graph 4: Headline Erroneous March, April and May 2020 U.3, U.6 and ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment

Graph 5: BLS- and ShadowStats-Corrected March, April and May U.3, U.6 and ShadowStats Alternate

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1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

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Headline U.S. Unemployment Rates U.3 and U.6 versus the ShadowStats Alternate

1994 to May 2020, Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, Bureau of Labor Statistics]

Official Recession

ShadowStats Alternate

U.6 Unemployment Rate


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1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

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BLS-Corrected Headline U.S. Unemployment Rates U.3 and U.6 versus the ShadowStats Alternate

1994 to May 2020, Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, Bureau of Labor Statistics]

Official Recession

ShadowStats Alternate





Shadows Alternate Unemployment Rate Still Explains Labor-Market Stresses in the Employment-

Population Ratio and Participation Rate Better Than the Headline U.3. The recent (February)

historically low U.3 unemployment at 3.2% (see Graph 6), consistent with a heavily hyped economic

“boom,” never was consistent with high levels of employment stress and a headline ShadowStats

Alternate Unemployment over 20%, which were signaling an Economy remaining in serious trouble, pre-

Pandemic, never having recovered fully from the Great Recession.

As the Pandemic crisis pummeled recent economic activity, headline ShadowStats Alternate

Unemployment still has continued to reflect the pattern of mounting labor-market stresses more

consistently than the heavily gimmicked headline U.3 unemployment. Such can be seen, by comparing

Graph 7 of the inverted-scale ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate against Graph 8 of the

Employment-Population Ratio and Graph 9 of the Participation Rate. Again, such is in contrast to Graph

6 of the inverted-scale headline U.3 Unemployment Rate. The suggested underlying reality here remains

that the headline economic boom into early 2020 never fully realized an economic recovery subsequent to

the Great Recession.

Graph 6: Headline U.3 Unemployment Rate, Inverted Scale (1994 to May 2020)

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9

100.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

22.0%

1994

1995

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2020

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U.3 Unemployment Rate (Inverted Scale) To May 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]



Graph 7: ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate, Inverted Scale (1994 to May 2020)

Graph 8: Civilian Employment-Population Ratio (1994 to May 2020)

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105%

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25%

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ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Rate (Inverted Scale) Long-Term Discouraged/Displaced Workers Included (BLS Excluded Since 1994)

To May 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]

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45%

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Civilian Employment-Population Ratio To May 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]



Graph 9: Participation Rate (1994 to May 2020)

May Payroll Employment Rebounded 2.5 Million, Down Year-to-Year by 11.8% (-11.8%)

Downwardly Revised April Plunge of 20.7 (20.7) Million Was Worst Ever

Payroll Survey Birth-Death Revisions Showed Weaker Near-Term Growth

In Context of Negative Payroll-Survey Birth-Death Model Revisions, Pandemic-Induced April

Payroll Plunge of 20.7 (-20.7) Million was Followed by a 2.5 Million Bounce in May. The

downwardly revised April 2020, steepest-ever decline in Payroll Employment activity, was followed by a

2.5 Million jobs bounce, as plotted here in Graphs 13 to 18. While the May bounce was too small to be

visible in the full historical Graphs 13 and 14, it does show in Graphs 15 and 16, and Graphs 17 and 18.

Graphs 17 and 18 also plot the net revisions to the Birth-Death Model, where benchmarked lines are the

lower and lighter colored ones.

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1994

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Participation Rate [Labor Force as a Percent of Population] To May 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]



Graph 13: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 1939 to May 2020

Graph 14: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 1939 to May 2020, Year-to-Year Change

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1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

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Nonfarm Payrolls

Seasonally-Adjusted Jobs 1939 to May 2020 [ShadowStats, BLS]

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1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year-

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Nonfarm Payrolls Unadjusted Year-to-Year Percent Change 1940 to May 2020 [ShadowStats, BLS]



Graph 15: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 2000 to May 2020

Graph 16: Headline Nonfarm Payroll Employment 2000 to May 2020, Year-to-Year Change

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Nonfarm Payrolls Seasonally-Adjusted Jobs 2000 to May 2020 [ShadowStats, BLS]

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Nonfarm Payrolls Year-to-Year Percent Change 2000 to May 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]



Graph 17: Birth-Death Model Net Revisions (Lower, Lighter Blue Line)

Graph 18: Birth-Death Model Net Revisions (Lower, Lighter Orange Line)

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Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May

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Nonfarm Payrolls Revision Seasonally-Adjusted Jobs 2000 to May 2020 [ShadowStats, BLS]

-14%

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0%

2%

Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May

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Nonfarm Payrolls Year-to-Year Percent Change 2000 to May 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, BLS]

Documents

Shadow Government Statistics - ShadowStats Flash Commentary, … · Shadow Government Statistics — Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1439 — June 9, ... Payroll Survey Birth-Death Revisions