Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
1
SFAF of SFAF of AprilApril 25 200525 2005
2
April 2004 – April 2005
� Continued income improvement in 2004, 2005 and 2006
� Reserves: consolidated 2P reserves stable (+2%) pendingthe 3D seismic survey in Congo
� Significant improvement in production valuation methodsin Congo
� Search for a critical size and diversification accelerated by external growth
� First dividend due in 2005
2
3
Consolidated financial statements Recorded Economic* Economic* Recorded
Sales 45.3 50.3 138.6 132.4
Operating income 10.3 14.3 60.5 57.7
Net income 24.3 24.3 58.6 47.4
in € millions 31/12/2003 31/12/2004
> The improvement in operating income (+320%) and
net income (+140%) augur well for a further strong
performance for 2005 and 2006
2004 income: 140% improvement net economic income
* Retaining pro rata the contribution of the interests in Pebercan in Cuba treated for accounting purposes using the equity method and including
the gain on the disposal of shares recorded for accounting purposes as corporate income
� Consolidated financial statements
4
Oil financial statements Recorded Economic* Economic* Recorded
Oil sales 31.1 41.6 133.5 111.6
Oil operating income 14.6 19.6 76.3 72.4
Economic operating margin 46.9% 47% 57.1% 64.9%
Oil net income 10.2 15.5 57.9 53.3
Net margin 32.8% 37.2% 43.3% 47.8%
in € millions 31/12/2003 31/12/2004
2004 oil income combines growth with profitability
> Profitability improving strongly:
. Operating margin: +21%
. Net margin: +16.3%
* including Caroil and share in Pebercan
� Oil financial statements
3
5
The simultaneous build-up of the Congo, Gabon and Cuba assets makes possible further, strong growth for 2005 and 2006
Congo, Gabon, Cuba: a profit-generating oil mix
� Tax contracts: the operator's margin is not reduced by the high price perbarrel (eg: Congo: selling price USD 50/net margin USD 22)
� Quality of assets: light oil in Congo and Gabon
� Low costs:- operating costs USD 4/b in Congo and USD 3.5/b in Cuba
- acceleration continues by amortizing fixed costs on increasingproduction
� Valuation conditions improve strongly in Congo: - new Total contract on transit and trading generating total earnings
of USD 4 to 5/b (8 to 9 currently on Djeno)
- 25% additional value per barrel in the ground after fiscal effect and discounting
- freedom to sell M’Boundi crude direct
6
In € millions
Sales 138.6 375 505
Cash flow 55.8 175 240
Net income* 58.6 150* 195*
2004 2005
> Growth target: +155% in 2005 and 30% in 2006
> 2006 net income includes the effect of a potential hedge of € 29 million
(15 000 b/d at USD 50) which, with Brent at USD 38, would ensure a net
income of the order of € 88 million
Simultaneous build-up and the features of the Congo, Gabon and Cuba assets make possible further strong growth for 2005 and 2006
2006
* Excluding exceptional items
Assumptions:
• selling price USD 41 in 2005 and USD 37.7 in 2006
• €/USD parity: 1.25
• M’Boundi North starts production in 2006
� 2005 and 2006 objectives
4
7
2006:> barrel price +32% = +11% consolidated net income
> barrel price -15% = -11% (hedge effect)
Barrel volatility: attractive sensitivity on the up side and controlled on the down side
in € millions 2005 2006
Brent USD 32 128 190
Brent USD 41/38 150 195
Brent USD 50 167 222
* Excluding the impact of IFRS standards on the accounting treatment of the hedge and excluding
exceptional items
Hedging effect and desaturation of cost recovery (Congo and Cuba) compared with the scenario of
Base Brent USD 38
� Consolidated net income*
8
2005-2010: the Maurel & Prom balance sheet and cash flow allow it to
finance its investments while retaining a buying capacity of some
€ 600 million and an annual exploration effort of € 20 million
Sources 2005-2010
. Total organic net cash flow 900
. Acquisitions net cash flow 220
. Original cash including OCEANES 400
. Borrowing capacity on acquisition 200
Total 1 720
Utilizations
. Acquisitions 380
. Exploration* 100
. Debt repayment including unconverted OCEANES 900
. Dividend (≈30% proforma net income excluding acquisition) 300
Total 1 680
Net balance 40
* 10 wells per year without income
> Net gearing: 18% at December 31 2004 and 4% end 2005(excluding OCEANES and excluding acquisitions)
� Source and utilization of funds 2005-2010 (in € millions)
Price per barrel assumption: Brent USD 38
5
9
Assessed reserves at 25/04/05: virtual stability of 2P reserves(+2%) in the absence of drilling outside initial M’Boundi(42 km²) and before delivery of 3D semismic survey (230 km²)
> High cash flow visibility: Maurel & Prom has 15 years of production at 52 000 b/d in terms of 2P and an ability to
double its reserves in terms of 3P
Possible reserves≈ 300 Mb
The 2P reserves are virtually stable in Congo before delivery of the 3D seismic survey and the North South wells, and the consolidated 2P
reserves are up 2% including Cuba and Gabon
Congo Gabon Cuba
Reserves (2P) ≈ 283 Mb
88.2%
2.3%
9.5%
* Maurel & Prom
estimate/evaluation
in progress in Congo
Congo Vietnam Gabon Sicile Cuba
4.4%6.6%*
1.5%
10%
77%
(Proforma items at April 1 2005)
� Total 3P reserves = 583 million barrels
10
Organic growth which is based on three main avenues of
development and exploration
� Congo:
- Acceleration of the M’Boundi development
- Exploration: five prospects to be drilled in 2005
� Cuba:
- Production expected to double in two years
- Strong exploration potential after the success of Santa Cruz
� Gabon:
- Development begins in second half 2005
� Tanzania, Sicily, Senegal:
- Four exploration wells programmed
> 2005-2006 production target: 40 000 b/d by end 2005 and 50 000 b/d by end 2006 (excluding external growth, exploration success and before the impact of Congo
injection)
6
11Congo 2005: production expected to double
Development
� 35 000 to 40 000 b/d by end 2005 with25 new wells inside the original 50 km²
� New16" Djeno terminal pipeline operational before year end (capacity:
130 000 b/d)
� Water injection test well (before launch
in 2006)
� Five permanent drilling rigs from Juneonwards
� Maurel & Prom 2005 investments:USD 106 million
> Peak production with natural depletion: 45 000 b/d in 2006> Peak production after injection: 70 000 b/d in 2009
Depth chart at the roof of the Vandji
reservoir based on the initial 3D
seismic survey done by CGG (in 2002)
12Congo 2005: obtaining the means for a new discovery
Delineation/exploration
Grand M’Boundi
• June - July: one M’Boundi deep
south well in new 3D
• Summer: delivery of new 3D
seismic survey: 250 km² around
M’Boundi
• September to December: three
wells within the 230 km² to
increase the final size of
M’Boundi
> Significant growth capability of M’Boundi
Depth chart at the roof of the Vandji
reservoir based on the initial 3D
seismic survey done by CGG (in 2002)
7
13Congo 2005: obtaining the means for a new discovery
Exploration excluding
M’Boundi
� Kouilou: four wells programmed
by end 2005, Tchiniambi, Diosso,
Toum (M’Boundi West), Kitombo
� Kouilou South: one well on
Tchivouba
� Kouilou South-East: one potential
well on Tchissakata prospect
� La Noumbi: Doungou drilling
> 2005: crucial year for demonstrating the existence of a regional Vandji field
Location of prospects and leads on theMaurel & Prom permits
14Cuba: return to significant growth in 2005
Development focused onCanasi, Seboruco and Santa Cruz
• Canasi: rapid decline (incursions of water and gas) to be stabilizedEnd 2005 objective: 1 700 b/d
� Seboruco: build-up with an end 2005 objective of 4 700 b/d Pebercan share. 10 to 15 development wells to be producedin 2005-2006
� Santa Cruz: after discovery well(1300 b/d tested, lighter oil) 15 wells to be drilled to produce11 000 b/d in two years Pebercan share on Block 7 (including5 500 b/d by end 2005)
� 100% production level by end 2005 = 11 000 b/d and 15 000 b/d to 20 000 b/d by end 2006
8
15
Cuba: return to significant growth in 2005
• 1st curtain of overthrust beds
offshore and onshore to be
drilled in 2005-2006: Tarara,
Guanabo, La Luz and Matanzas
• 2nd level of offshore
overthrust beds identified by
3D seismic: diverted multi-
reservoir wells being studied
• Gas: large quantities to value
(8 000 boe/d today)
Promisingexploration
� Objective: to double or triple reserves by increasingthe Stooip and recovery ratio (2.5% today)
Fields exploited by Pebercan
Production fields
Area of block 7
Production installations
Pipeline system
16Gabon: searching for the Vandji field
After buying the South African company Rockover Oil & Gas for
€ 57.8 million:
� 27 Mb 2P including 4 425 Mb 1P
(Beicip assessment)
100% of the MT2000, Ofoubou, Kari and MBindji permits: quality
oil: 32°API
� Exploration growth potential: possible 30 Mb evaluated to date
� Search for an iso-Vandji (continuation of the Congo)
9
17Gabon: continuing the Vandji field
� The benefit of an attractive tax contract
o Royalty: 4%
o Cost recovery: 80%
o Profit oil: 50%
� First production expected in 2005
Target 2 200 b/d by end 2005 (Banio and Ofoubou)
� A contribution to consolidatedoperating net income ofUSD 5 million in 2005 andUSD 30 million in 2006
(assumption: Brent USD 40 in 2005 and USD 35 in 2006)
18A fast, significant lever for growth
� On the basis of the existing 27 Mb 2P: the investments in 2005
(USD 22 million) and 2006 (USD 41 million) would allow a strong surge in
production:
� 2 200 b/d by end 2005
� 8 to 9 500 b/d by end 2006
� 12 to 15 000 b/d by end 2007
� Financed by extending the specialized oil finance packages in place,
without going to the market, the operation would slightly increase share
value in 2005 and greatly increase share value in 2006 (+14%)
> Maurel & Prom will then have (Congo included) more than14 000 km² with Vandji potential to make new exploration discoveries in a semi-mature zone
10
19Tanzania: 12 000 km² onshore and offshore to be explored
- Production-Sharing Contract on
onshore and offshore blocks of
Bigwa-Rufiji and Mafia
- Maurel & Prom holds 60% and
Petroquest 40%
- Investments: two wells in four
years - Potential seismic
- Tax:
- Cost Recovery: 60% to 40%
depending on production
- Profit Oil 40% to 65%
depending on production
- IS: 25 to 30%
- 1st exploration well by end
2005/beginning 2006
> Exploration in semi-mature zone
20Sicily: the strong lever effect of a gas asset in Europe
- Option to buy 25% of Fuime Tellaro permit operated by the
American company Panther for € 10 million (of which € 2.3 million is
payable if first two wells in 2005 successful)
- 747 km²: evaluation of 2P reserves by Ryder Scott in 2004 with
274 Bcf (or 50 Mboe) reclassified as possible by Maurel & Prom
- Maurel & Prom may raise its stake to 40% then 50% for an additional
€ 20 million
> Two wells in 2005: if successful, significant
source of revenue in 2006 (≈ USD 5/mcf)
11
21
External growth necessary to obtaining a critical size and diversifying assets (1/2)
� Objective:
- To reduce the Congo weighting to 50% in the balance sheet
in five years
- To achieve a critical size to absorb more complex projects:
learning curve in complex engineering, offshore, gas,
assisted recovery, opportunity to recruit additional
technical staff
- Broaden knowledge on several geological features, have a
network for access to new assets: be capable of taking over
major mature assets (first discovery to come: increased
recovery rate) first lever of growth for independants
22
External growth necessary to obtaining a critical size and diversifying assets (2/2)
� Typical profile:
- 100 to 150 Mb 2P reserves
- 30 000 b/d
- Proforma 2005 net income USD 60 to 70 million
- High level of net cash flow
- Price: around USD 500 million without premium or < 15%; value
created by 2005 and technical and/or regional synergies
- 60% financed from shareholders' equity, 40% debt on cash flow
> By end 2005: new Maurel & Prom, with 80 000 b/d =450 Mb 2P, proforma consolidated net income € 200 million
12
23
Strategy:
Favorable circumstances for building a
super-independent
24
Strategy: a favorable situation for building a significantly sized
independent oil player
� Diminishing share of majors: sharp reduction in exploration investments and
major discoveries, depletion steeper than predicted, rising operating costs, many
returns before 3D seismic, profitability preferred over growth. The majors have to
find barrels on the market (eg: Chevron/Unical USD 10/b 2P)
� Competitive advantages of independents: responsiveness suited to small and
medium-sized fields, lower Opex/Capex, no downstream activities, higher ROI
greater than 25%, ability to combine growth with return
� Buoyant price situation: market fear of being physically short (limited ability to
increase production in Middle East, refining industry saturated) 15 times more
financial than physical oil products, high price sustainable for western investors,
high political premium, necessary for developing deep offshore and non-
conventional oils
� Two growth vectors:
• first recovery with 3D seismic (even 4D) on mature fields
• second recovery with intelligent wells and injection
Maurel & Prom will benefit from enhanced investors'
interest in independents
13
25
Strategy: a favorable situation for building a significantly sized
independent oil player
� Assets very sensitive to the lever effect of the barrel price
� Portfolio allowing very high profitability compared with competitors
� Large exploration potential in Congo, Gabon, Cuba and Sicily
� Value of technical and managerial capabilities independent of assets
� Five to seven years of rapid and sustained growth
� Attractions of West Africa for investors and oil companies
� Three regions of interest/diversification: Congo, Gabon, Cuba
� Growing value of light oil
� Financial means to double production through acquisitions in 2005
Maurel & Prom's main advantages
> Maurel & Prom should benefit from a favorable judgementof an increasing numbers of investors attracted by the
independent segment
26
In terms of reserves and capacity to grow production, Maurel & Prom is now one of Europe's leading quoted independentcompanies
Proven and
probable
reserves in
Mb
Dailyproduction(b/d)
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
100 000
80 000
50 000
30 000
22 000
16 000
11 000
Tullow Oil 175
Paladin108
Berry110
Maurel & Prom 283
Cairn264
Dana124
Lundin137
Premier200
Centurion38
By end 2005
14
27
In terms of reserves and capacity to grow production, Maurel & Prom is now one of Europe's leading quoted independentcompanies
Proven and
probable
reserves in
Mb
Dailyproduction(b/d)
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
100 000
80 000
50 000
30 000
22 000
16 000
11 000
Tullow Oil 175
Paladin108
Berry110
Maurel & Prom 400
Cairn264
Dana124
Lundin137
Premier200
Centurion38
By end 2005
> Scenario post 2005 acquisitions
28
1st scenario: standalone assets
Average independent PER 2005: 15
Net income 2005: € 150 million, or € 2 250 million = € 19.56
115 million shares*
2nd scenario: post acquisition
PER of 15 averaged over 2005-2006 (including € 50 million acquisition
premium)
Net income 2005-2006 = € 222 million, or € 3 333 million = € 28.9
115 million shares** Excluding OCEANES
� Analysts' concensus: € 18.7/share
� CM-CIC Securities / Exane BNP Paribas / Fideuram Wargny / KBC
Securities / Raymond James
High capacity to create organic and external value
15
29
� Strategy: to combine growth and profitability mainly as
a function of the barrel price
Maurel & Prom has the means to finance its growth and
ambitious exploration while distributing approximately
30% of its net income
� For 2004 to be paid in 2005: exceptional effort made possible by forcing exercisable stock warrants (BSARs)
=> (≈ € 0.15/share)
Corporate: introduction of a dividend policy in 2005
30
Corporate: enormous growth in the number of shareholders since the beginning of 2004 (+70%)
9.97%
37.36%
36.36%
15.44%
Source: TPI, November 30 2004
Mutuals
Individuals
Companies
Foreigners
� Capital distribution
> Sharp increase in total shareholders: +70% to 18 000 (compared with10 452 in February 2004)
> Significant growth of foreign shareholdings to 15%
16
31
Isin code FR 0000051070
Reuters code MAU FP
Bloomberg code MAUP.PA
Market compartment Compartment A
Number of shares at April 21 2005 108 099 990
Reference indices Mid 100, CAC Mid Small 190,
Midcac, Next 150, NextPrime, SBF 250
Price on April 21 2005 € 17.75
Stockmarket capitalization on April 21 2005 € 1 919 million
Maurel & Prom CAC 40 SBF 250
2002 +31.8% -31.9% -29.4%
2003 +94.7% +11.4% +13.1%
2004 +307.1% + 7.40% +9.23%
Maurel & Prom and the stockmarket
� Stockmarket data
32Maurel & Prom and the stockmarket
� Stockmarket price trend
17
33Contacts
Maurel & Prom
Frédéric Boulet Frédéric Boulet -- ManagingManaging DirectorDirector
12, rue Volney
75002 Paris
Tel.: 33 1 53 83 16 00 - Fax: 33 1 53 83 16 05
Actifin
Anne DalzonAnne Dalzon
Tel.: 33 1 56 88 11 11
Find all the financial information on:
www.maureletprom.com
www.actifinews.com