Upload
clare-hodge
View
217
Download
2
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Sevin Ekinci
TurkeyNovember 2011
Main Subjects
• Economic Prospects for 2012
• Politics- A new constitution
• Governmental system-AKP targets 2023
• Foreign Relations (EU, Cyprus, ME, NA)
Economic ProspectsA Relative Advantage
Economic ProspectsA Relative Advantage
Economic ProspectsA Relative Advantage
Economic ProspectsA Relative Advantage
Economic ProspectsA Relative Advantage
Economic Prospects
• Proactive monetary policy
The objective of macroprudential policy is to reduce systemic risk by
1. Reducing the pro-cyclicality of the financial sector
2. Improving its resilience to adverse shocks; by explicitly incorporating the inter-linkages between, and common exposures of, all institutions
Proactive monetary policy yielded its return
Economic Prospects: lower credit use would ease current account deficit
We have more positive prospects than market consensus
Politics
• A new Constitution
Process:Debates between AKP-CHP-BDP-MHPJoint opinions of AKP-CHP-BDP-MHP
Most likely scenario:A referendum by end-2012 which overrules presidential system.
Governmental system
• AKP targets 2023Medium-Term Economic Program covers 2012-2014; no ambition yet strong fiscal policy projections.Next elections-2014 (presidential); 2015 (parliamentary)
• Can they achieve to their 2023 target?Well it is conditional… On domestic and International developments (EU, Cyprus, Israel, Middle
East and North Africa)
Foreign Relations
• How the economy works in Turkey
• EU• Cyprus• Middle East• North Africa• Israel