Setting the World Stage

2Lt Baldwin2Lt Carroll2Lt Devries2Lt Elliott2Lt Krug

2Lt Mealey2Lt Moore

2Lt Pochron2Lt Wright

Curriculum Area Manager—Warfare Studies/International Security Studies

What is our context? Three competing ideologies

Fascism Communism Democracy

If democracy remains as the predominant ideology,…

why do extremism, uncertainty, and violence still flourish?

Overview

Transnational Issues Globalization North vs South Global War on Terror (GWOT)

Religious and Ethnic Factors Religious Conflicts Ethnic Conflicts

What holds people together?

More than merely national titles Often based in cultural roots

Ethnicity Religion

How do each of these factors relate to conflict?

Ethnic ConflictsDefinitions:

Ethnic cleansing: Expulsion of an “undesirable” population from a given territory due to religion, ethnicity, political, strategic, or

ideological factors Genocide: Deliberate and systematic

destruction of a group of people because of their ethnicity, nationality, religion, or race

Intent differentiates ethnic cleansing (a desire to create ethnic homogeneity) from genocide (primary goal is the destruction of a certain

group of people).

Ethnic Cleansing and Genocide: Not Just a

Historical Problem

Religious Conflicts How has religion become the crucible for violence?

Belief of belonging to a chosen people Belief in aggressive/forced evangelism Religion as symbolic structure of conflict

Often, religion becomes the vehicle for the expression of deeply and widely held social aspirations

Religion can become the invoked ideology or “…social cleavage along which other struggles become mapped”

Example: Sunni-Shia conflict in Iraq—Political or religious struggle??

Connecting the Dots

What’s the connection between religion and conflict?

What’s the connection between ethnicity and conflict?

Both of these aspects of culture can unite and divide!

So, what happens when a culture is faced with outside influences?

GlobalizationDefinitions: “[The] integration of markets, nation-states, and

technologies…enabling individuals, corporations and nation-states to reach around the world farther, faster, deeper…than ever before…”

“The compression of the world and the intensification of consciousness of the world as a whole…concrete global interdependence...”

Bottom line: Globalization is a widening, deepening, and speeding up of interconnectedness in all aspects of

contemporary social life from the cultural to the criminal, the financial to the spiritual.

Dimensions of Globalization

Economic Environmental Cultural Political

Each can be analyzed separately, but they often have powerful interconnections

But is globalization good or bad?

Many view all globalization as pro-American Fear the dominance of Western ideas,

culture, institutions, and power

“Rogues, Renegades, and Outlaws” Blame United States for their

problems—easy way to divert attention from actual cause of problems

“Have-nots” Poverty makes them vulnerable to extremism

Globalization

Our adversaries see emerging global trends as threatening their traditions and way of life

Our adversaries believe they must derail the new emerging world order or be run over by it View United States as leader in shaping this Can’t match our political, economic, military,

and cultural power Resort to asymmetric approaches Benefit from “ungoverned spaces” (i.e.,

Western Pakistan, Indonesia, Africa, etc.)

Globalization

North vs South The Cold War/East-West conflict is gone,

replaced by a “North-South Estrangement” Economic rift between the “Haves” (North)

and the “Have-Nots” (South) widens Consider:

At least 80% of humanity live on less than $10/day

Almost half the world—over 3 billion people—live on less than $2.50/day

North vs South Consider:

More than 2 billion children in the world… Nearly half live in poverty, and most lack adequate shelter, potable water, and health services

Global poverty trends improving, but sub-Saharan Africa poverty levels are rising

The horrors of extreme poverty lead to hopelessness, which fuels extremism—and often, extremism breeds terrorism.

“Those who study jihad will understand why Islam wants to conquer the whole world. All the countries conquered by Islam, or to be conquered in the future, will be marked for everlasting salvation. Islam says: Kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all!” -- Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, 1942

Militant extremism isn’t new…

“[The defense of the homeland]…is a means of establishing the Divine authority within it so that it becomes the headquarters for the movement of Islam, which is then to be carried throughout the earth to the whole of mankind, as the object of this religion is all humanity and its sphere of action is the whole earth.” -- Sayyid Qutb, 1955

Global War on Terror

GWOT - Who is the enemy? Various Islamic extremist groups (al Qaeda being the greatest threat

to the United States) : No state; no uniform; lives among the population Believes religion is under attack and calls upon Muslims to

defend Islam Vast numbers—Even support by 1% of the worldwide Muslim

population would equate to about 13 million “enemies” While we view the enemy’s beliefs as dangerously misguided….

He is absolutely committed to his cause His religious ideology successfully attracts recruits He has a sufficient population base from which to protract the

conflict

How has the enemy become so dangerous?

Al Qaeda exemplifies the current manifestation of violent extremists

Al Zawahiri identified “three foundations” of Al Qaeda’s political ideology: Quran-based authority to govern Liberation of the homelands Liberation of the human being

This ideology is the foundation of Al Qaeda’s overall plan

Global War on Terror

An unprecedented ability to affect world events with global ramifications

Information Technology

Internet News Media Satellite TV Cell Phones

Weapons Proliferation

IEDs Suicide Bombers Missiles Nuclear Chemical/Biological

How Have Islamic Extremists Become So Dangerous?

Perceived Grievances

War in Iraq/Afghanistan Belief US is fighting a war against Islam Palestine/Israel issue Detainee Abuse

Populace willing to listen to and support their message

+Ability to transmit message more effectively

+Media attention given to mass effects of attacks

=

The equation for danger:

Al Qaeda’s Plan“We are seeking to incite the Islamic Nation to rise up to liberate its land and to conduct Jihad for the sake of God.”—Osama bin Laden

Objective 1: Expel American influence from Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula

Objective 2: Remove secular governments within the region Objective 3: Eliminate Israel and purge Jewish and Christian

influence Objective 4: Expand the Muslim empire to historical

significance

“Iraq would serve as the base of a new Islamic caliphate to extend throughout the Middle East, and which would threaten legitimate governments in Europe,

Africa, and Asia.” (Former SecDef Rumsfeld, 2005)

Implications of failure in this war are high If radical Islamist groups

are successful, then… US global leadership is

damaged and our enemy is emboldened

They have a resource-rich, safe haven

Failure to stop our enemy now means a larger conflict later, and at an enormous cost!

Global War on Terror

The Good NewsThe enemy has vulnerabilities:

Monolithic view of Islam underestimates cultural and religious differences

Majority of Muslims don’t believe in the Islamic extremism that groups like Al Qaeda profess

Repressive Taliban-like regimes unappealing to most Muslims

No military capability to expand their fight beyond terrorist tactics Understanding these vulnerabilities will put us in a better

position to win the Global War on Terror

Setting the World Stage

Questions?

Summary

Transnational Issues Globalization North vs South Global War on Terror (GWOT)

Religious and Ethnic Factors Religious Conflicts Ethnic Conflicts