Upload
milly
View
37
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Setting Priorities for Development of New and Improved Climate Products. BY JIM O’BRIEN COAPS,FSU. WHO ARE THE USERS?. ARE THEY WEATHER FOLKS OR CLIMATE USERS?. IF A USER DECIDES TO USE A CLIMATE FORECAST, SHOULD HE KNOW THE SKILL OR ERROR BARS OF THE PRODUCT?. What are standard variables?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Setting Priorities for Development of New and
Improved Climate Products BY JIM O’BRIEN
COAPS,FSU
WHO ARE THE USERS?
ARE THEY WEATHER FOLKS OR
CLIMATE USERS?
IF A USER DECIDES TO USE A CLIMATE FORECAST, SHOULD HE KNOW THE SKILL OR ERROR BARS OF THE PRODUCT?
What are standard variables?The standard “weather variables” are:
1) Temperature - Hourly, daily, maximum and minimum, monthly, annual
2) Atmospheric Pressure3) Rainfall - Hourly, daily, monthly, etc., rainfall rates4) Humidity - Specific humidity, relative humidity, wet-bulb
temperature, etc.5) Winds - Wind speed and direction, wind components
Most clients need derived information. EXAMPLES:
Wind Climatology
Impact Freezes of the last century
Freeze Date ENSO State *Dec 1894 Neutral Feb 1899 Neutral Dec 1934 Neutral Jan 1940 Neutral *Dec 1961 Neutral Jan 1977 El Nino Jan 1981 Neutral *Dec 1983 Neutral Jan 1985 Neutral *Dec 1989 Neutral Jan 1997 Neutral
* High Impact
ENSO and Florida FreezeProbabilites
Extended Freeze Events
La Niña and Wildfires
• La Niña brings drier than normal conditions (30%-40%) and warmer temperatures from November through April.
• Wildfire activity is increased throughout the wildfire season.
• The increased activity can be expected during nearly all La Niña episodes.
Anomalous Wildfire activity
(acres burned) during La Niña
episodes
April
Wildfire Threat forecast
• Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)
SECC Partners
Florida State Univeristy – climate studies, coupled modeling, climate forecasts, forestry
University of Florida – extension, crop modeling, decision support tools
University of Miami – climate, economics, water resources, assessment
University of Georgia – climate, extension, crop modeling,assessment
University of Auburn – extension, economics, insurance
University of Alabama Huntsville – climate, water resources
Ag Impacts in Florida, SE USA
• Crop yield– Drought– Excess rainfall– Freeze
• Quality of produce• Costs of production• Profit risks• Environmental concerns
Crop Yield Variability
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Percent yield increaseLa Niña neutral El Niño
Tomato
Impacts of hundreds of millions of dollar in Florida, documented by Florida Dept. of Agr & Consumer Services, various research papers
ENSO effects on production of crops in Florida
Tangerine
El Niño Neutral La Niña-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Percent yield change
Field Corn
El Niño Neutral La Niña-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Percent yield change
Winter Tomato
El Niño Neutral La Niña-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Percent yield change
Managing Risks Associated with Climate Variability using Forecasts
• Irrigation and drainage• Change variety, planting date, fertilizer
program, irrigation• Winter pasture vs. hay purchase• Scheduling operations• Crop insurance decisions• Marketing decisions• Wildfire management, burning• Reducing environmental risks
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Percent yield increaseLa Niña neutral El Niño
Bell pepper
Se.AgClimate.org
• Web-based system being developed in partnership with Extension by the South East Climate Consortium (SECC) with support from NOAA and USDA-RMA
• Will deliver climate-related information for decision makers in agriculture and natural resources
Some Tools in AgClimate
• Climate Forecast– Rainfall– Temperature (max and min)– Frost
• Drought– KBDI (Forest fire risk, mosquito control)– LGI (research in progress)
• Crop Yield• Crop Development
Climate forecast information is provided base on the current and projected state of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
AgClimate now displays rainfall anomalies for AgClimate now displays rainfall anomalies for El Nino phase in Polk County, FL.El Nino phase in Polk County, FL.
Probabilistic climate forecast information is Probabilistic climate forecast information is displayed as probability density and probability displayed as probability density and probability of exceedenceof exceedencegraphs (showngraphs (shownFor Polk Cty, FL).For Polk Cty, FL).
Chill Unit Accumulation
• Blueberries
• Strawberries
• Peaches
• Wheat
Chill-Hour Forecasts for
Fruit Production
Chill Units – Peach, Alachua County, FL
El Nino Years1,261 Chill Units on average
Chill Units – Peach, Alachua County, FL
La Nina Years1,058 Chill Units on average
Signals weak in N GA & AL
Higher chill with El Niño; Lower chill with La Niña.
El Niño Anomolies
ninoanom-78 - 0
1 - 100
101 - 200
201 - 300
La Niña Anomoliesninaanom
-306 - -300
-299 - -200
-199 - -100
-99 - 0
1 - 100
101 - 200
WHAT IS THE FUTURE IN CLIMATE SERVICES?
Learn what users need-not what they want!
Build cooperation with RCC’S,SC’S,RISA’S and others (SECC HAS COOP PROGRAM WITH CPC!)
Provide derived variables for climate users
Calculate error bars for probability forecasts
Tercile forecasts have limited value for users
For More Information:
Visit Our Websites
COAPS: www.coaps.fsu.edu
Florida Climate Center:
www.coaps.fsu.edu/climate_center
Florida Automated Weather Network:
fawn.ifas.ufl.edu
THE END