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ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 1

SessionSession 55

Case Case studies on BWAstudies on BWANetwork Network PlanningPlanning

Ignat StanevIgnat StanevITU Consultant, BulgariaITU Consultant, Bulgaria

ITU Cross Regional Seminar on Broadband ITU Cross Regional Seminar on Broadband

Access (Fixed, Wireless including Mobile) for Access (Fixed, Wireless including Mobile) for

CIS, ASP and EUR RegionsCIS, ASP and EUR Regions

ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 2

Content of the presentation :Content of the presentation :� Wireless Broadband Access network planning

� Case study 1 –Mali (for Operator) : � WBA for Bamako urban and suburban area

� Case study 2 –Georgia (for Administration) : � WBA for Tbilisi suburban rural area

� Case study 3 –Tajikistan (for Regulator) : � WBA for Dushanbe urban and suburban area

� Case study 4 –Moldova (for Administration) : � WBA network segment for the capital Chisinau

� WBA network segment for typical rural area

� Case study 5 –Bulgaria (for University) :� WBA network segment for small town �WBA network segment for rural area

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ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 3

Broadband in the telecom networksBroadband in the telecom networks

Offered broadband connection – by price and speed

Source : OECD, TeleGeography,

Point Topic

BB by speed of connection:

� Low speed

(256kbps – 2Mbps)

� Mediumspeed

(2.5Mpbs-10Mbps)

� High speed

(10Mpbs-32Mbps)

� Very-high speed

(above35Mbps)

BB

BB

BB

BB

BB

BB

BB BB

BB BBBB

LBS

NGN services requiring broadband

ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 4

WirelessWireless broadbandbroadband access technologies access technologies -- WBAWBA

Terrestrial Terrestrial WirelessWireless

SATSAT

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ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 5

BWA Network PlanningBWA Network Planning

• Services/Customers modeling

• BWA Technology modeling

• Optimization of access network

• Design of radio network

• Feasibility studies

Number of Subscribers per Customer Class

0

50000

100000150000

200000

250000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Time

Num

ber

of S

ubsc

riber

s

BB_Bus

BB_Res

ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 6

Case study Mali (Bamako) – BB marketBB market

Wireline for urban and wireless overlay for urban and for the suburban areas

BB Customer market and expected revenue

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ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 7

Case study Bamako – BB Wireless overlay network

Wireless overlay network in the

urban area and for the suburbs

Wireline BB in the urban area

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Case study Bamako - Economic Analysis :

Costs per network element

Revenues, Costs, NPN

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ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 9

Tbilisi suburban region (Tskneti,

Dighomi, Tabaxmela, Chindisi )

Case study Georgia Georgia (Tbilisi) – suburban area :

Number of BB customers per customer class

Number of customers per village (year +4)

ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 10

Case study Tbilisi suburbs - mountain rural area :

Wireline (xDSL) vs. Wireless (WiMAX)

Results for wireline

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CCase study ase study Tbilisi suburbs – Wireless access network :

Results for wireless

( WiMAX )

Year +2

Year +5

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Case Study Case Study Georgia Georgia -- BB access planBB access plan

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Case study TajikistanTajikistan (Dushanbe) – urban and suburban area :

Dushanbe urban (4 districts)

Number of Subscribers per Customer Class

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Time

Num

ber

of S

ubsc

riber

sBB_Bus

BB_Res

Number of BB customers per customer class

Number of BB customers per district (year +5)

ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 14

Dushanbe city (4 districts)

Technical solution WiMAX for VoIP, Data, Internet, IPTV/Video( 25 BSs)

Case study Dushanbe – access network for urban area :

Wireless overlay

BS

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ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 15

Case study Dushanbe –suburban area :

Number of customers per customer class

Dushanbe suburban (sample with 5 villages)

Number of Subscribers per Customer Class

0

20

40

60

80

100

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Time

Num

ber

of S

ubsc

ribe

rs

BB_Bus

BB_Res

Number of customers per village (year +5)

ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 16

CCase study ase study Dushanbe suburban –wireless access network :

Results for wireless ( 3 BS - WiMAX )

Dushanbe suburban (sample with 5 villages)

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ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 17

Case Study Case Study Tajikistan Tajikistan -- BB access planBB access plan

ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 18

Case study MoldovaMoldova (Chisinau) Chisinau) -- BB marketBB market :

� Pessimistic scenario (20%) Total Number of Subscribers

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Time

Num

ber

of

Sub

scrib

ers

Total Number ofSubscribers

� Optimistic scenario (35%) Number of Subscribers per Customer Class

050000

100000150000

200000

250000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Time

Num

ber

of S

ubsc

riber

s

BB_Bus

BB_Res

year xDSL WiMAX FTTB LAN+CATV

2009 67.4% 0.1% 17.4% 15.1%

2009 50916 76 13144 11407

2013 70% 2% 23% 5%

2013 177167 5062 58212 12655

Difference 126251 4986 45064 1248

year xDSL WiMAX FTTB LAN+CATV

2009 67.4% 0.1% 17.4% 15.1%

2009 50916 76 13144 11407

2013 70% 2% 23% 5%

2013 101238 2893 33264 7231

Difference 50322 2817 20119 -4176

Estimated market segment

Estimated market segment

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ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 19

Case study Chisinau Chisinau -- BB access networkBB access network :

Wireless segment

xDSLFTTB

Modulation:� QPSK 2/3Speed -DL TDD:� 4.3 Mbps

Target access speed:� 8 Mbit/s

ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 20

Case study for typical rural area -- BB marketBB market :

BB Customers

Number of Subscribers per Customer Class

0

200

400

600

800

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Time

Num

ber

of S

ubsc

riber

s

BB_Bus(Rural)

BB_Res(Rural)

Common accessRural

Average Bandw idth

0

100

200

300

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Time

in M

bit/s Average

Bandwidth

Village Households telephones BB total BB residential BB business

Cioresti 1273 752 19 17 2

Vulcanesti 140

Dolna 428 279

Micleuseni 753 347

Huzun 30

Evolution of the xDSL customers :� 10% penetration goal � 90% residential; 10% business� 1 common access point per village� market segment � if xDSL exists -70% of the market � if only telephones -50% of the market

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ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 21

Case study rural -- BB access networkBB access network :

Target access speed:� 2 Mbit/s

Market segment of WiMAX :� if xDSL exists -30% of the market � if only telephones -50% of the market

� if nothing -100% of the market

Market segment of xDSL :� if xDSL exists -70% of the market � if only telephones -50% of the market

Wireless segment

xDSL

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Case Study Case Study Moldova Moldova -- BB access planBB access plan

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Case study Bulgaria – small town

Total number of BB customers

Number of BB customers per year of the planning period

Number of BB customers per customer class

Изглед от Берковица

Berkoviza

year 1946 1956 1965 1975 1985 1992 2001 2005 2007 2009

population 6 876 9 227 11 562 16 167 16 420 16 146 15 459 14 460 14 189 13 917

Source:National statistics, „Citypopulation.de“ and „Pop-stat.mashke.org“

Total Number of Subscribers

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Years

Num

ber

of S

ubsc

riber

s

Total Number of Subscribers

Number of Subscribers per Customer Class

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Years

Num

ber of

Sub

scrib

ers

Bus

Res

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Bulgaria small townBulgaria small town -- BB access networkBB access network

Wireless technology solution

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Bulgaria small townBulgaria small town –– feasibility studyfeasibility study

Revenue and expenses

Revenue; Costs

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

in B

GL Revenue

Costs

Net Present Value (IRR=163%)

-600000

-400000

-200000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

in B

GL

NPVNPV

ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 26

Case study Bulgaria - rural area

Existing number of broadband customers

Number of BB customers per year of the planning period

Number of Subscribers per Customer Class

0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Years

Num

ber o

f Sub

scrib

ers

Buss

Res

Total Number of Subscribers

0100200300400500600700800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Years

Num

ber

of S

ubsc

ribe

rs

Total Number of Subscribers

Business Residential

Rural area 12 89 Number of BB customers per customer class

Lucky village

2005total

2005г.men

2005women

2006total

2006men

2006women

population 3861 2062 1799 3793 2015 1778

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ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 27

Bulgaria rural areaBulgaria rural area -- BB access networkBB access network :

Technology wireless solution

1 WiMAX BS connected to one Router

ITU Seminar Chisinau, Moldova, 4-6 October 2011 Session 5 -IS - 28

� The case studies present the planning process that needs to be performed for planning of broadband access networks

SummarySummary

� Planning process includes market definition, dimensioning and optimization of the access network elements, economic analysis and results.

� The BWA case studies illustrate ITU projects on assisting of developing countries