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UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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"Advancing Knowledge for Human Security and Development“
United Nations UniversityInstitute for Environment and
Human Security
(UNU-EHS)
Session: Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment, IDRC Davos 26 August 2008, Switzerland
Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Tsunami Risk at Sub-National Scale
Indonesia
Dr.-Ing. Jörn BIRKMANN
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY –Head of Section Vulnerability Assessement
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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National and Local Partners Indonesia
LIPI – Indonesian National Institute of Science
BPS – Statistics Indonesia
UGM – Gadjah Mada University (Yogyakarta, Central Java)
Unand – Andalas University (Padang, West Sumatra)
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Risk f = (Hazard and Vulnerability)
VulnerabilityRiskHazard
technicallife-lines buildings
critical infrastructure
socio-economic
environmental
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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e.g. Emission control
e.g. Insurances
e.g. Land use changes
Social sphere
Economic risk
Environmental risk
Social risk
Vulnerability reduction (t=0)
Preparedness
Disaster/emergencymanagement
Vulnerability reduction (t=1)
e.g. Early warning
Event
HAZARD
Economic sphere
Environmental sphere
Risk reduction
INTERVENTION SYSTEM
Natural phenomena
Fragile and exposed elements
Copingcapacity
VULNERABILITY RISK
FEEDBACK
e.g. Emission control
e.g. Insurances
e.g. Land use changes
Social sphere
Economic risk
Environmental risk
Social risk
Vulnerability reduction (t=0)
Preparedness
Disaster/emergencymanagement
Vulnerability reduction (t=1)
e.g. Early warning
Event
HAZARD
Economic sphere
Environmental sphere
Risk reduction
INTERVENTION SYSTEM
Natural phenomena
Fragile and exposed elements
Copingcapacity
VULNERABILITY RISK
FEEDBACK
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Sec
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dissemination
Evacuation
EmergencyRelief
Recovery
Risk reduction capacity
Warningdecision
Exposure
Susceptibility
Coping Capacity
Rehabilitation
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Exposed People
Receiving the warning
Decision to evacuate
Capability to evacuate
Livelihood rehabilitation
Health maintenance & rehabilitation capability
Understanding the warning
Intervention Tools /Adaptation
Exposed critical infrastrctures
Evacuation
Hazard Warningdecision Deggree of hazard impact Indicators
BBC framework categories
Warning and response phases
Thematic areas for indicator development
VULNERABILITY
Warning dissemination
Evacuation
EmergencyRelief
Recovery
Risk reduction capacity
Warningdecision
Exposure
Susceptibility
Coping Capacity
Rehabilitation
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Indicators
Exposed People
Receiving the warning
Decision to evacuate
Capability to evacuate
Livelihood rehabilitation
Health maintenance & rehabilitation capability
Understanding the warning
Intervention Tools /Adaptation
Exposed critical infrastrctures
Evacuation
Hazard Warningdecision Deggree of hazard impact Indicators
BBC framework categories
Warning and response phases
Thematic areas for indicator development
VULNERABILITY
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Results of an Evacuation Drill in Padang
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Factor Analysis: Rotated Comp. Matrix
0,952-People exposed per ha
0,966--Demographicsusceptibility
-- 0,3350,824% of people without high school education
0,309-0,704% of people withoutprimary school education
0,348-0,3880,637% of people withoutmobile phone
--0,816No access to electricity321Indicators
Extraction Method: Principle Component Analysis.Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Access to Information and Knowledge
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Sumatra : Access Information & Knowledge
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Java & Bali : Access Information & Knowledge
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Demographic Susceptibility
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Sumatra : Demographic Susceptibility
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Java & Bali : Demographic Susceptibility
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Exposure - DLR
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Aggregation
Aggregated Vulnerability Index
Access to information and
knowledge
% of people withoutaccess to electricity
% of people without accessto mobile phones
0.33 0.330.33
Exposure Demographicsusceptibility
Exposed peopleper ha Demographic susceptibility
index
% of people without primary school education
% of people without high school education
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Aggregated Vulnerability Index
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Sumatra: Aggregated Vulnerability Index
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Sumatra: Aggregated Vulnerability Index
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
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Conclusions
•Sub-national Vulnerability Assessment can help to identify potential bottlenecks for people-centered early warning and appropriate response behavior
• Interestingly not the cities but rather the islands in front of Sumatra are most vulnerable areas regardingtsunami risk and effective responses.
• In Java the North-Western region is the mostvulnerable in Java.
•Bali has a relative good access to information.
•Applicability: Urban planners have more interest in theinformation than traditional disaster managementagencies.
UNU-EHSDr.-Ing. JOERN BIRKMANN [email protected]
nite
d N
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nsU
nive
rsity
Inst
itute
forE
nviro
nmen
t& H
uman
Sec
urity
"Advancing Knowledge for Human Security and Development“
United Nations UniversityInstitute for Environment and
Human Security
(UNU-EHS)
For Further Information:
www.ehs.unu.edu
