YI Zhuangfang 依庄防 , World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), China

Center for Montain Ecosystem StudiesKunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Rubber monoculture or rubber agroforestry: are there implementable policy-supports based on result from spatially explicit models?

Traditional & non-traditional rubber-growing regions

Li and Fox, 2012

Rubber agroforestry only exists in Thailand Indonesia (Old Rubber) etc. now, but it’s been gradually conversed into rubber monoculture or plantations of other cash crops.

Study Site

Yunnan,China

Data from: World Agroforest center, China Program and KIB

Man-made plantations: rubber monoculture and rubber agroforestry

Rubbermonoculture

Rubber agroforestry

Rubber Expansion

87,226 ha 153,613 ha 438,015 (23%)

Data from: Agro-forest center ChinaData from: World Agroforest center, China Program and KIB

The trend of Rubber plantations

1400m*****

< 600

600-700

700-800

800-900

900-1000

1000-

1100

1100-

1200

1200-

1300

1300-

1400

1400-

1500

1500-

1600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

3

Inferior rubber plantations

Medium-favorable rubber plantations

Favorable rubber plantations

Rubber plantations have already been expanded to 1600m

Questions

1. Which is more cost-efficient between rubber monoculture and rubber agroforestry?

2. Which has better ecological functions/values?

3. Is there a balance between economic return and ecological functions/values? And which is more implementable based on existing policy-support?

Question 1

1. Which is more cost-efficient between rubber monoculture

and rubber agroforestry?

1. Compiling the cost and productivity observations from field surveys, interviews and literatures;

Methodology and Data

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 300

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Rubber productivity among different cropping systems

Jungle rubber rubber agroforestry(tea+fruit trees)rubber monoculture

Rubber in KG/ha

Rubber monoculture gets highest rubber productivity but also the highest overall cost

Data source: Feng (2007); Wuland and Joshi (2013); Wibawa, unpublished.

2. Simulating the land use scenarios based on land use map in 2010, including non-rubber scenarios:1) (Non-Rubber), 2)Conservation Oriented Scenario(COS), 3) land use map in 2010, 4) 2010 Agroforestry, 5)Business-as-usual Scenario (BAU), 6)BAU Agroforestry, 7)Economic Oriented Scenario (EOS), and8) EOS Agroforestry.

Methodology and Data

1) 2) 4)

5) 6) 7) 8)

3)

Care about forests Current situation

The futureOnly rubber

Answer to questi on 1

1000000000

2000000000

3000000000

4000000000

5000000000

6000000000

7000000000

8000000000

9000000000

10000000000

We calculated the economic returns for each land use scenario, and we found: plant more rubber (EOS, Economic Oriented Scenario) would have more economic return from rub-ber. However, we are going to lose all ecosystem services in the future, e.g. clean water, biodiversity etc.

Question 2

2. Which has better ecological functions/values?

Existing carbon markets

Climate change, 1997 Kyoto Protocol, 2007 Bali Action.

US

Europe

Australia

China: to reduce 40-45% of carbon emission

a) Beijing Environmental Exchange

b) China Environment & Energy Network in Shanghai

c) Tianjin Climate Exchange

d) A new domestic market will be established in Guangdong province

Landuse and

cover types

Carbon

Storage(t/ha)

Landuse and

cover types

Carbon

Storage

(t/ha)

Seasonal rainforest 122 Paddy field 5

Mantane rainforest 116 Tea plantations 14

Evergreen broad-leaf forest 105 Favorable RP 35

Pinus forest 32 Unfavorable RP 15

Alnus forest 60 Residential area 0

Mossy evergreen broad

-leaf forest

80 Water body 0

Shrub and grass land 15

Carbon storage of different types of land use and land cover

Li et al 2008; Xi 2009;Song and Zhang 2010; Zhang et al. 2011

Answer to questi on 2

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

80000000

90000000

100000000

Plant less rubber, we will gain more carbon storage

Question 3

3. Is there a balance between economic return and ecological functions/values? And which is more implementable based on existing policy-support?

Rubber monoculture or rubber agroforestry?

Economically, only carbon market would bring more economic returns to compete with rubber profit. So we combine both rubber profit with carbon value for each land use scenario. We found 1. When the carbon

market brings higher carbon market, people would benefit more from maintaining and protecting forest.

2. The easiest way for Xishuangbanna to go in the future would be 2010 agroforestry

20$/ ton

10$/ ton 30$/ ton

Non-rubber COS

2010 Land use

Map

2010 Agrofores

try BAU

BAU Agrofores

try EOS

EOS A

grofores

try0

2000000000

4000000000

6000000000

8000000000

10000000000 Carbon price is 5$/ ton

0 2000000000 4000000000 6000000000 8000000000

10000000000

Non-rubber COS

2010 Land use

Map

2010 Agrofores

try BAU

BAU Agrofores

try EOS

EOS A

grofores

try0

2000000000 4000000000 6000000000 8000000000

10000000000 12000000000 14000000000 16000000000

0

5000000000

10000000000

15000000000

20000000000

25000000000

Answer to question 3

Non-rubber

COS

2010 Land use

Map

2010 Agrofore

stry

BAU

BAU Agroforestr

yEO

S

EOS A

grofore

stry

0

2000000000

4000000000

6000000000

8000000000

10000000000

12000000000

14000000000

16000000000

Rubber Agroforestry would bring more benefits overall, including rubber and carbon economic returns, than rubber monoculture from rubber.The low-hanging-fruit for Xishuangbanna would be “go for rubber agroforestry first (2010 Agroforestry scenario)” and then “switch to conservation oriented scenario gradually when the carbon market gets better in the future”

1st

2nd

Conclusion and discussion

Rubber agroforestry would potentially benefit better than rubber monoculture;

However, the benefits only come from:

- better clone of crops combination in the agroforestry, e.g. plant new rubber clone 77-4, 77-2 instead of old clone GT1; and to select high market value indigenous timber and fruit species;

- Future environmental market, especially, carbon market would play a big role for supporting agroforestry;

- Higher education and training for farmers will be needed to better manage their agroforestry and to improve household socioeconomic and ecological benefits.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME!

If you have further questions please contact: Zhuangfang Yi Yi.zhuangfang@gmail.comyizhuangfang@mail.kib.ac.cnFacebook: Zhuangfang Nana YiPersonal website: https://sites.google.com/site/zhuangfangnanayi

Wish you all a fun staying in Delhi!