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8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
1/22
Christian Comes
The role of efficiency
In a residential PV MarketExperience from Germany
SANYO Component EuropeSolar Division
October 2009
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
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2 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
Contents
Introduction to SANYO Solar
PV Model for Energy Independency
German Market since 1995
Potential Market
Sustainability
Market Drivers: System Performance
Market Drivers: System Cost
Market Drivers: Turnover/Profitability
UK Landscape
Market Outlook
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3 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
SANYOs History in the Photovoltaic Business
1997 HIT solar cells mass-produced and marketed
2000 The Worlds first double-side PV module, HIT Double, Started on sale
2001 The one of the worlds largest solar monument, Solar Ark completed
2004 The new factory (A Building )at Nishikinohama completed.The brand-new HIT power cell and module produced.
1975 R&D for amorphous silicon (a-Si) solar cells started.
1980 The first successful industrialization of a-Si solar cells in the world.
1990 R&D for HIT solar cellsStarted.
1992 The first installation of the grid -Connected
1994 The Residential PV system started on sale.
2002 HIT PV modules marketed in North America and Europe.
2008 Shiga factory started production.Total HIT Cel Production Capacity becomes 340MW.
Total HIT Cell Production Capacity became 260MW.2007The production of the HIT cells begins in B building at Nishikinohama factory.Total HIT Cells Production Capacity became 160MW.
2005
HIT200W PV Modules released (The Cell efficiency 19.5%)Monterrey Factory started production.2003
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
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4 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
HIT Solar Cells
HIT:
Heterojunction with
Intrinsic Thin-layer
The worlds highestsolar cell conversion efficiency
23%(laboratory)
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Year
Conve
rsionefficiency(%
)
p-Si solar cells,other companies(production, Top level)
19.7%(production)
23%(laboratory)
22%(production)
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
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5 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
SANYO Solar Production Capacity
1000
500
07 20100
FY 2020
2000
1500
3000
2500
4000
3500
08 09
ProductionCapacity(MW/Year)
HIT
Thin-film
HIT Scale of
600MW
Expand sales of SANYO-only HIT Solar Cells
HIT cells to target high end market.Thin Film solar cells to capture lowend commercial market
Scope of business goal by FY 2020 for both
HIT and thin-film is a world share of 10%
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
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6 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
PV Model for Energy Independency
UK oil production has seen two peaks, in the mid 1980s and late1990s, with a decline to around300103 m (1.9 million barrels)per day in the early 1990s. Monthly oil production peaked at13.5106 m (84.9 million barrels)in January 1985 although the highest annual production was seen in1999, with offshore oil production in that year of
407
106
m (2559 million barrels)and had declined to231106 m (1452 million barrels)in 2007. This was the largest decrease of any other oil exporting nationin the world, and has led to Britain becoming a net importer of crudefor the first time in decades, as recognized by the energy policy of the
United Kingdom.
The production is expected to fall to one-third of its peak by 2020
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
7/227 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
PV Model for Energy Independency
Yearly energy consumption in Germany (TWh)
-Electricity: 600-Gasoline: 67-Diesel: 108-Calefaction oil: 616-Calefaction gas: 900Total 2,291
PV area necessary to cover total Energy consumption:
2,500,000 Ha* = 300m2/inh. (ground) = 100m2/inh. (roof)
Todays area in Germany devoted to energy crops:
1,500,000 Ha
*) Calefaction consumption is reduced by factor 4 with heat pump*) Module efficiency 18%*) PR 85%*) Usage of ground systems: 33% of surface covered with modules
*) Irradiance yearly 1040 kWh/m2
Source: Photon 9/2007
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
8/228 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
PV Model for Energy Independency
*) Source: Photon 4/2007
PV vs. Bio-fuelsPhotovoltaic pros:
-More efficient energy use (50 to 150 times better)*-Energy harvesting all year round
-Low operating costs-No single-crop related problems-No pesticides
Biofuel pros:
-Lower CAPEX-Use of legacy vehicle technology-Works for traditional branch
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9/229 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
PV Model for Energy Independency
*) Source: SCE research
PV: Where does the money go?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
System Cost
breakdown
Installation
Inverter
Materials
Planning
Wholesale
Module
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Module Cost
breakdown
Module
Cell
Wafer
Ingot
Si raw material
Standard cSi module2009 4kWp Rooftop System
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
10/2210 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
German Market since 1995
In Germany, the first use of PV was off-grid
Politically oriented (anti-nuclear) off-grid users were the main customersegment.
PV incentive programs (1,000 roofs, 100,000 roofs) opened up a different
market: grid connected systems on private roofs.
EEG law (2000) and its revisions changed the game:
-Investment in PV as main goal-Connected to grid as standard technology
-Price reduction with goal of Grid Parity in a few years
Result was a booming market from year 2004 and system pricereduction.
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
11/2211 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
Potential Market
Munich, residential area
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Potential Market
London, residential area
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13/2213 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
Efficiency and sustainability
An average persons consumption of electricity at home is
1,000 kWh
The offset of this consumption is a system of ~1kWp
Roofspace is the most precious asset for CO2 reduction with PV
Upcoming developments (electric mobility, heat pump wide use)increase the use of electricity in the household.
The ultimate goal is to allow big areas of population to offset theirown emissions without consumption of non-local resources.
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
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Sustainability: 1kWp system size
SANYO: 5.8m2
cSi: 6.9m2
mcSi: 7.9m2
CdTe: 10m2
aSi: 16m2
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
15/2215 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
Market Drivers in Residential Environment
EndCustomer
CostSystemPerformance
Professional
Turnover Profitability
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
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System Performance
The efficiency of grid inverters has improved over the last 20 years
Specially, the inverters without transformer are about 2% more efficient
Bigger inverters usually have higher efficiency
High efficiency modules can avoid shadowed areas keeping system size
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Efficiency of Inverters
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Cost (CAPEX)
Efficiency is the key factor for BoS cost:
Mounting SystemCablingInstallation TimeSales EffortAC Equipment
Do not depend on kWp size, but mostly on area (or per system)
In Germany, typical residential systems have changed from 3kWto 5kW from 2005 to 2009
Typical System Cost difference (EUR/W):SANYO vs. cSi: 0.15SANYO vs. CIS: 0.30SANYO vs. aSi: 0.60
BoS cost differencies become more important with lower system
prices, and will be key at grid parity conditions
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18/2218 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
Turnover/Profitability (Installer)
In most PV situations, the size of the system (kWp) is determined bythe available space.
More efficiency = More turnover for installer
At the same effort (warehouse, sales, administration)
The mounting of flat roof systems can be done with low qualifiedpersonell. This kind of staff can be contracted with flexibility and at lowcost, but usually they come from low-wage areas.
The Process (Germany)
aSi/CIS was installed during periods of undersupplyaSi/CIS was/is installed due to its visual appealCdTe is installed due to low system priceIn 2009, oversupply of cSi destroyed the market for aSi/CIS2HF/2009, undersupply stimulated again Thin Film
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
19/2219 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
Turnover/Profitability
End customers have two KPI:
1- IRR (independent of efficiency)2- Turnover (Financed systems after pay-back)
Focus on IRR drives customers to the cheapest price per kWpFocus on Turnover drives customers to high efficiency
Full financed systems and fully owned systems have usually afocus on turnover unless explained otherwise by advisors
The process (Germany)
During the pioneer years, focus was in autosupply (high efficiency)During module shortage years, this turned to just preferenceCommercially exploited roofs (rented) focus more on IRRPrivate owned roofs mostly try to install more kWp
8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes
20/2220 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
UK Landscape
What is going to be the UK market like?
Residential roofs ( shift of commercial roofs towards low-efficiency
Flat roofs -> Market for high efficiency modules
Future development towards Grid Parity
@ 2 EUR/Watt system price, Efficiency Delta * 0.7 = Price Delta
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21 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008
Market Outlook
How will the World Market take shape?
2010 2012: road to end-user Grid parity
Market based on residential, wealthy customers is removing most low-cost, low-quality players from the market
Consolidation will happen at the middle price segment
High efficiency solutions will improve market share
2012 2020: fight for high volume
PV will expand to different shaped markets and new energy supplybusiness models will arise.
System price will decrease further
It is impossible to know how those markets will look in the future
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Christian Comes
SANYO Solar
Technology
SANYO Component EuropeSolar Division
October 2009