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Kedar NEUPANE
Joint Secretary, MoHA
26th April 2018
Session 4 Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance
through implementation of Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP)
and Investment for Disaster Risk Reduction
3rd Commemoration Seminar of Gorkha Earthquake
2
Basic Concept of Sendai Framework for DRR
Understanding Disaster Risk
Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance
Investment for Disaster Risk Reduction
Towards implementation of DRR Measures
Contents
3
7 Global Targets
4 Priorities for Action Priority 1
Understanding disaster risk
Priority 2 Strengthening
disaster risk governance
Priority 3 Investment
for DRR
Priority 4 Enhancing disaster preparedness and
“Build Back Better”
(a) Reduce mortality
(b) Reduce affected people
(d) Reduce damage to critical
infrastructure (e) Increase number of countries with national & local DRR strategies
(f) Enhance International Cooperation
(g) Enhance Access to the Disaster Information
(c) Reduce economic loss
Sendai Framework for DRR
4
Understanding Disaster Risk
5
Seismic Gap Kathmandu
2015 Gorkha EQ
Seismic Potential in Nepal
Still much Possibility of Big Earthquake
6
Risk Assessment in Kathmandu Valley Scenario Earthquake and Estimated Shaking level
Scenario Earthquake
Other Facilities Critical Facilities and
Infrastructures
Shaking in KV
2 times 3 times
7
Safe
Resilience
Critical Infrastructure (School, hospital, government building, bridge, etc.)
Other facilities (Residential, Commercial residential mixed buildings)
Severe shaking
Moderate shaking level
Safe and Resilience by Type of Facilities To keep functions at the time of disaster
8
30.6 % of total buildings!
28.9 % of total school buildings!
26.7 % of total Bridges
Human Casualty 0.3% Death
3.32 % Injured 42.92 % Evacuee!
Economic Loss NPR765,675 Mil
36% of National GDP
Result of Risk Assessment
To maintain urban function at the event of disaster, important to secure safety of critical facilities and
infrastructures
What should be done to reduce estimated damages?
9
Strengthening
Disaster Risk Governance
Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP)
Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP)
10 For Residents
KVRP
LDRRP
National DRR Plan
Provence, District, Municipality
Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance ~Relationship with KVRP and LDRRP~
11
Comprehensive Policy Framework
Measures to Avoid Worst Case Scenario
Concept of Build Back Better (BBB)
Overall Guideline for Development
The time frame: 20 years
Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) ~Objectives of the KVRP~
12
Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) ~Road Map~
2020 (Short) Strategy and Planning
2025 (Medium) Implementation mainly
for critical infrastructures
2030 (Long) Revision of Plans
Key Milestone
13
Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ~Formulation Flow of LDRRP~
②Setting DRR Target and Measures
①Risk Identification
③ Clarify Roles and Responsibilities between National and Local government
④Priority Measures for DRR
14
Building Damage (Heavy)
Flood and Fire Landslide
① Risk Assessment and Identification (Understanding Risk)
Example: Lalitpur MC
Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ~①Risk Identification~
Risk Map (Flood and Fire)
15
④ Plan and Prioritize Actions for DRR, Budgeting, and Implement
Example: Lalitpur MC
Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ~④Priority Measures for DRR~
16
Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) DRR Activities
17
Investment for DRR
National Level Efforts
Improve Seismic Resistance of School Buildings
Local Level Efforts
Building Permit and Promotion to improve
Seismic Resistance of Residential Houses
Designation and Development of Open Spaces
for Evacuation
18
Moderate:810 (14.1%) Heavy: 1,654 (28.9%) Total: 2,464 (43.0%)
Investment for Retrofitting and Re-building is
Necessary to Mitigate Damages
Very High! Reason necessary to take action
Note: Total No. of School Buildings: 5,731 (2,115 schools)
Investment for DRR (National Level Efforts) ~School Building Strengthening~
19
Rebuild Vulnerable School Bldgs to Reduce Damage
-167 (51%)
Structure Type
Current situation Rebuild Vulnerable building
No. of building
No. of heavy damage
No. of death
No. of building
No. of heavy damage
No. of death
Adobe 9 7 36 Rebuild to brick masonry
with cement mortar BM with mud mortar, > 20 yr 305 214 369
BM with mud mortar, < 20 yr 212 105 183
BM with cement mortar 526 159 268
Total 526 326 588 526 159 268
-320 (54%)
Rebuild
Construction cost: 12,868 mil. NPR
(1.23% of National Budget)
Case of Rebuilding (Adobe, Brick Masonry with mud mortar)
20
Progress of School Building Strengthening in Japan
Progress of Retrofitting of Public School Buildings
Source: MEXT, 2016
More than 20 Years to achieve in Japan
21
Rough Estimation of costs for Seismic Retrofitting of Buildings
Enforcement of
Building Permit System
Building damage
Economic loss (mil. NPR)
Building (2016) (Total:
52,821)
Heavy damage 9,603(18.2%) 57,355
Moderate damage 6,277(11.9%)
Slight damage 9,322(17.6%)
Building damage & Economic Loss (Reconstruction cost)
×20% (Rough estimate for Retrofitting)
11,471 (mil. NPR)
1,085
(mil. NPR)
10.5 times
Annual Budget of Lalitpur Metropolitan City = (Actual Income 2072/2073 (2016-2017))
Not possible to implement only with local Government
Investment for DRR (Local Level Efforts) Example: Lalitpur MC
Strengthening of Residential Buildings
=
22
Designation and Development of Open Spaces as Evacuation Place and DRR bases
Local Government can manage
Investment for DRR (Local Level Efforts)
Evacuation and Development of Open Space
Example: Lalitpur MC
23
Challenges for Investment for DRR
How to implement Risk Assessment
How to speed up formulation of LDRRP
How to secure budget for DRR
How to coordinate related Ministries
How to prioritize necessary DRR Projects and implemented
24
Towards
Implementation of DRR Measures
25
Implementation of DRR Measures ~New Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act~
Natural Calamity Relief Act, 1982⇒1989⇒1992
Response oriented to DRR
National Level • National Council for DRRM⇒Chaired by Prime Minister
• Executive Committee⇒Chaired by Minister of MoHA • Experts Committee⇒5 members with various fields of expertise
• National DRRM Authority⇒under MoHA
Local Level • Province Disaster Management Committee⇒Chaired by Chief Ministers • District Disaster Management Committee ⇒Chaired by Chief District Officer • Local (Municipality and Similar) Disaster Management Committee⇒Chaired by
Mayor/Chairperson
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act, 2017
Response Oriented
Comprehensive and DRR Oriented
With coordination of NCDRRM and EC, NDRRMA expected to coordinate Line Ministries to speed up
implementation of DRR Measures
26
Issues on Implementation of KVRP and LDRRP
National Council for DRRM (Prime Minister)
Executive Committee (Minister of MoHA)
National DRRM Authority (Chief Executive)
Line Ministries
・・・・・ Line
Ministries Line
Ministries Line
Ministries
Local Gov.
Local Gov.
Local Gov.
Local Gov.
Local Gov.
Local Gov.
・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・
Budgeting for Implementation
Clarification of Roles/Responsibility, and Demarcation of Works between National and Local Gov.
Formulation of Operation Plan by each Line Ministries
Formulation of Plans for each Measures based on Operation Plan (E.g. Seismic Performance Improvement
Plan of Schools by MoEdu, and Bridge by MoPIT
Coordination among Ministries and MoHA will coordinate
27
Implementation of DRR Measures
Nepal’s Efforts to be disseminated to Asia and World
Tremendous efforts have been made by the Government of Nepal in cooperation of JICA
and other partners and it is the time to disseminate efforts made to other Asian
Countries and then to the World
In Mongolia July 3-6, 2018
28
Media
Lifeline Agencies/Comp
anies
Business Entrepreneurs
Volunteers
Private Sectors
Citizen Societies Citizens
/Communities
Engineers, Consultants
Donor Agencies
Government
National Government
Provincial Governments
Local Governments
Security Agencies
Fire Brigades
DCC
Research Institutes/Unive
rsities
Schools Teachers, Students
Hospitals, Health Facilities
NGOs/INGOs
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management is
EVERYONE’S BUSINESS
30
Reference
31
District Municipality CNS-1 CNS-2 CNS-3 WN
BHAKTAPUR
Bhaktapur 11,570 22,392 31,529 4,536
Changunarayan 11,128 24,543 37,062 3,726
Madhyapur Thimi 11,378 23,877 34,396 3,426
Suryabinayak 15,769 32,751 47,208 4,260
Total (BHAKTAPUR) 49,845 103,563 150,195 15,947
KATHMANDU
Budhanilkantha 7,490 21,198 36,607 4,279
Chandragiri 25,664 48,190 64,429 8,275
Dakshinkali 6,016 11,976 16,947 1,583
Gokarneshwar 7,981 20,586 34,319 4,117
Kageshwori Manohara 6,045 15,452 25,248 2,622
Kathmandu Metropolitan City 118,000 244,421 352,694 49,390
Kirtipur 18,771 33,123 42,936 5,833
Nagarjuna 14,650 31,653 46,616 5,959
Shankharapur 1,441 3,931 7,090 939
Tarkeshwar 6,875 17,998 30,095 4,521
Tokha 5,911 15,983 27,094 3,396
Total(KATHMANDU) 218,844 464,511 684,075 90,914
LALITPUR
Bardeu Rural Municipality 383 839 1,286 70
Bagmati Rural Municipality 272 574 860 67
Godawari 27,257 51,396 69,725 6,227
Lalitpur Metropolitan City 57,355 107,349 145,934 15,861
Mahalaxmi 16,670 32,493 45,053 3,837
Konjyosom Rural Municipality 378 810 1,225 77
Total (Lalitpur) 102,314 193,460 264,083 26,138
Grand Total 371,003 761,534 1,098,353 132,999
Estimated Total Damage Amount Each Municipality (Unit: Million NPR)
32
Scenario ground motion School Health
Facility Government
Building Historical
Architecture
WN 20,462 22,534 2,444 1,321
CNS-1 51,231 68,588 8,669 1,925
CNS-2 98,171 165,683 16,514 2,267
CNS-3 134,932 232,782 22,708 2,377
Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Each Critical Facilities (School, Hospital, Government, Historical Buildings)
(Unit: Million NPR)
33
Scenario ground motion
Road Bridge Water Sewage Power Mobile BTS
Total
WN 0 377 36 76 19 82 590
0.0% 63.9% 6.1% 12.9% 3.2% 13.9% 100.0%
CNS-1 471 898 71 135 56 272 1,903
24.8% 47.2% 3.7% 7.1% 2.9% 14.3% 100.0%
CNS-2 1,620 1,359 129 200 129 707 4,144
39.1% 32.8% 3.1% 4.8% 3.1% 17.1% 100.0%
CNS-3 2,878 1,914 191 290 197 1,142 6,612
43.5% 28.9% 2.9% 4.4% 3.0% 17.3% 100.0%
Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Each Critical Infrastructures (road, bridge, sewage, power distribution and mobile BTS
(Unit: Million NPR)
34
Scenario ground motion
Building Infrastructure Total
WN 132,999 590 133,589
99.4% 0.6% 100.0%
CNS-1 371,003 1,903 371,275
99.5% 0.5% 100.0%
CNS-2 761,531 4,144 765,675
99.5% 0.5% 100.0%
CNS-3 1,098,353 6,612 1,104,965
99.6% 0.4% 100.0%
Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Building and Infrastructure
(Unit: Million NPR)
35
Human Casualty
Scenario Ground Motion
Earthquake Occurrence Scene
Weekend (18:00) Weekday (12:00) Night
Number Ratio Number Ratio Number Ratio
Death
WN 2,123 0.1% 2,784 0.1% 3,034 0.1%
CNS-1 6,393 0.2% 8,282 0.3% 9,133 0.3%
CNS-2 15,526 0.6% 19,959 0.7% 22,179 0.8%
CNS-3 25,008 0.9% 31,956 1.1% 35,726 1.3%
Injured
WN 8,316 0.3% 10,905 0.4% 11,880 0.4%
CNS-1 25,036 0.9% 32,435 1.2% 35,766 1.3%
CNS-2 60,803 2.2% 78,168 2.8% 86,861 3.1%
CNS-3 97,940 3.5% 125,152 4.5% 139,914 5.0%
Evacuee
WN 279,942 10.0% 285,850 10.3% 279,031 10.0%
CNS-1 645,483 23.2% 652,798 23.4% 642,743 23.1%
CNS-2 1,202,734 43.2% 1,206,530 43.3% 1,196,080 42.9%
CNS-3 1,624,032 58.3% 1,619,792 58.1% 1,613,314 57.9%
Estimated Human Causality Death, Injured, and Evacuee