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Session 3 – IRP Stakeholder MeetingRecommended Generation Resources
February 1, 2008
G U A M P O W E R A U T H O R I T Y
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Initial Supply Side Candidates
Small Coal-Fired Power Plant– a pulverized coal (PC) boiler or circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boiler powering steam turbines
Small Combined-Cycle Power Plant W/ Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Facility – Combustion Turbines fueled by LNG
Re-power Piti Power Plant - Retro-fitting Piti 7 Combustion Turbine (CT) into a Combined-Cycle plant by adding an Heat Recover Steam Generator (HRSG) and a Steam Turbine (ST)
Reciprocating Engine – Low or medium speed water cooled diesel units utilizing efficient reciprocating engines
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Additional Supply Side Candidates
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Conversion –Conversion of existing units using Residual Fuel Oil (RFO) and Diesel fuels to use LNG
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) - Gasification process that produces synthetic gas from high-sulfur coal, heavy petroleum residues or biomass integrated with Heat Recovery Steam Generator to reclaim heat from gasification process to produce power
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Initial Renewable Energy Candidates
Wind Farm – On-shore, ridgeline configuration wind turbines off- shore a possibility
Biomass Power Generation Facility – Steam turbine generator plant fueled by biofuels and municipal solid waste
Guam SWAC – Deep seawater cooling for air conditioning along Tumon Bay (energy conversion) – modeled as a Demand Side program
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Other Options
Solar Thermal Plant – NAAVONO Energy USA, IncUtilizes a liquid medium running parallel through parabolic solar trough which is heated vaporization to drive turbine
Biogas (Methane) Extraction – Ship Supply, Logistic/ProvisionsPlant fueled with captured methane from decomposing waste at the Ordotdump
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) – OCEESUsing warm surface water to vaporize system fluid (ammonia) to drive turbine to produce electricity. Cold deep water cools fluid to cycle the process
Heavy Fuel Conversion – Conversion of medium speed diesels from using Diesel Fuel to use residual fuel oil
LNG + H2 Motor Generator (proposed by h2ondemand) - Fuel blend of natural gas and hydrogen with Deutz Hydrogen motors
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Timelines
MonthsPlant
Description TechnologyPermitting Start of
Eng to COTotal
Duration
Steam PC/CFB 30 36 66
CC w/ LNG LM6000 30 28 43
Wind10x2MW Onshore 15 9 18
Retrofit Piti 7 CC 24 18 30
Biomass Stoker/CFB 30 30 45
Recip. Engine 2x20MW S/MSD 24 18 30
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Siting Issue Studies
Preliminary and Detailed Assessments of SitingIssues
Land
Environmental
Greenfield vs. Brownfield installation
NIMBY concerns
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How GPA Determines its Resource Plan
Model Existing Unit Costs
Model Resource/Candidate Technology Costs
Forecasts Loads, Fuel, Cost, Future O&M and Capital Requirements, Unit Retirements
Explores Uncertainties in Assumptions
Determine Least Cost Resource Plan that is Robust
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Supply Side Cost Models
Plant Description / Technology
Nominal Capacity
MW
Primary Fuel
Capital Cost $000
Capital Cost $/kW
FOM $000
VOM $000
VOM $/MWh
Steam / PC/CFB 60 Coal 300,250 5,004 $ 4,928 $ 2,061 4.61
CC w/ LNG / LM6000
60 LNG 334,000 5,567 $ 4,004 $ 1,212 2.56
Wind / 10x2MW On-shore
20 Wind 48,538 2,427 NA NA NA
Retrofit / Piti 7 CC 60 No. 2 71,601 NA $ 2,464 $ 2,206 4.61
Biomass / Stoker/CFB
10 MSW 85,608 8,561 $ 4,107 $ 5,690 76.88
Recip / 2x20MW S/MSD
40 No. 6 70,980 1,775 $ 2,135 $ 1,669 5.64
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BASE CASE - Least Cost Plan
FY Additions2011 WIND2012 WIND2013 WIND201420152016 DED DSL2017 CLNG TANGO1 & 22018 RETR, CLNG CAB 1/TEMES2019 CLNG CAB22020 SSD, WIND2021 WIND2022 SSD CT1
2023 CLNG, SSDMACH, YIGO, MARBO,TAL,TENJ
2024 SSD CT2, MDI 1&22025
RETIREMENTS
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As Is Versus Base Case Annual System Costs
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Key Scenarios & Risk Issues
Carbon Tax
Planning Unit Retirements & Deferrals
Analyzing Emissions
Analyzing Renewable Portfolio Standards and Fuel Diversity
Analyzing Capital Costs & Determining Decisional Breakpoints
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Utility Cost Comparison
Total Utility Cost Comparison
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Coal Scenario w/ Carbon Tax
LNG Scenario w/ Carbon Tax (Base Case)
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Cabras 1&2 Retirement Deferral Benefits
15
Tango 1&2 Retirement Deferral Benefits
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NOx Emissions
Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Comparison
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
lbs
(x 1
,000
,000
)
Coal Scenario w/ Carbon Tax
LNG Scenario w/ Carbon Tax (Base Case)
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SOx Emissions
Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Comparison
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
lbs
(x 1
,000
,000
)
Coal Scenario w/ Carbon Tax
LNG Scenario w/ Carbon Tax (Base Case)
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Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Comparison
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
lbs
(x 1
,000
,000
)
Coal Scenario w/ Carbon Tax
LNG Scenario w/ Carbon Tax (Base Case)
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Fuel Diversity
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Renewable Energy Mix
Renewable Energy (Wind) Generated as % of Total Energy Generation
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Percentage
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Key Findings
Fuel DiversitySignificant decrease in use of oil
Significant reduction in overall fuel costs
More sources of supply
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Rapid Change
Wind Impact within 2 to 4 years – YesIn ten weeks, GPA will start the wind monitoring program
LNG option within 3 to 4 years - Yes
Coal not until 5 to 7 years
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Environmental Impact
GPA Base CaseSignificant Reduction to SO2
Significant Reduction to NOx
Significant Reduction in Greenhouses Gases
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We believe…
Our plan will result in lower costs for all ratepayers The impact should start to be seen in 3 to 4 yearsOur plan will result in much lower emissions from today’s levels
We will provide leadership in both cost reduction and environmental stewardship
25
Questions?
If not, then let’s proceed
