Scenario methods for planning and development of climate neutrality action

The Transformation‘ s temporal nonlinear Dynamics and Action Levels

Linear Approach

TRANSFORMation Agenda for Low Carbon Cities

1. Local Transformation Agenda towards a Smart Energy City (with key elements/indicators)

2. Implementation Plan for city districts

3. Qualitative decision support models

4. Quantitative decision support models

5. Handbook for implementation plans and a transformation agenda

6. Political Memorandum of Understanding

City specific outcomes:

How to model cities or urban areas and complex-dynamic processes?

Intermediate level: Districts

Scale, structure and self-organizing

dynamics in urban systems

• Urban systems are complex systems

• Their geographical structure is

dynamically

• produced through societal spatial

interactions

• Self-organization and Scaling laws

(Self-similarity!) may help to understand

urban dynamics and to predict its future

• Self-organization leads to better

understanding of the ‘key elements’

Resilience and Sustainability of

Urban/City development

Critical-dynamic Equilibrium:

„The Edge of Chaos“

Chaos(supracritical)

The Edge of Chaos

Order(subcritical)

DiversityofProduction-rules

Renewable Resource Diversity

Selforganization Resilience Sustainability

Resilience

Ecosystem resilience is the capacity of an ecosystem to tolerate disturbance without collapsing into

a qualitatively different state that is controlled by a different set of processes. A resilient

ecosystem can withstand shocks and rebuild itself when necessary. Resilience in social systems has

the added capacity of humans to anticipate and plan for the future. Humans are part of the natural

world. We depend on ecological systems for our survival and we continuously impact the

ecosystems in which we live from the local to global scale. Resilience is a property of these linked

social-ecological systems (SES). "Resilience" as applied to ecosystems, or to integrated systems of

people and the natural environment, has three defining characteristics:

The amount of change the system can undergo and still retain the same controls on function and structure

The degree to which the system is capable of self-organization

The ability to build and increase the capacity for learning and adaptation Source: Resilience Alliance

Topography of the Transformation: turning the city society‘s status quo into low-carbon is the overcoming of obstacles (shown here as an increasing of social costs)

A linear approach…

Example: