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Services système et installations
photovoltaïques /
Systemdienstleistungen durch
Photovoltaikanlagen
Ministère de l'Écologie, du
Développement durable et de l'Énergie
2015-11-03
1
Adrien ACRES
Country Manager France & Benelux
Meteocontrol France SAS
2
About the company
• Over 35 years of experience in
renewable energy systems
• Market leader in professional remote
monitoring of photovoltaic systems with a
total power of over 10,5 GWp
• 39 500 monitored photovoltaic systems
• Biggest data pool for the performance of
PV systems
• Involved in projects covering a total
investment volume of 13 bn. EUR
• 140 employees worldwide
SUBSIDIARIES: DE, ES, FR, IT, US, CN
SCADA
safer’Sun Public safer’Sun Professional Virtual Control Room (VCOM)
Home Line (up to 30 kWp)
Industrial Line (not limited in size)
WEB’log Residential / Comfort
3
metecontrol’s activities on the value chain
blue’Log X-Serie: X-1000, X-3000. X-6000
Power forecast within meteocontrol’s range of services
4
Technical Acceptance Power Control (P & Q)
Operation Management
Construction Phase
Decon
str
uction
Operations Phase
Technical Due Diligence
Planning Phase
Construction Supervision
System Rating and risks assessment
Yield Reports & Consulting
Manufacturer Auditing
Power Forecasts
Technical consulting
Monitoring of PV systems
Yield Performance Validation
5
The challenges for grid stability
6
Solar Power Forecasts
Radiation
forecast
PV Power
forecast
In cooperation with MeteoGroup
and Oldenburg University
• leading private weather service provider
• operating more than 850 own weather stations
• access to more than 17.000 stations worldwide
• highly accurate MOS forecasts (model output
statistics)
Service provided by Meteocontrol
• leading expert in PV power modeling
• more than 10,5 GW of PV systems worldwide
• monitoring portal with more than 39,500 systems
Solar power forecasts on different time scales
7
• Day ahead
• Short term
time scale
8
Short Term Solar Power Forecasts
„cloud motion vectors“ (CMV)
CLOUD MOTION VECTORS (Oldenburg University)
• Updated every 15 minutes
• Forecast horizon 8 hours
9
New approach: adaptive intra day power forecast
Cloud Motion Vector from satellite:
+ precise forecast for the next hours
- no exact information on actual PV power production
NWP = Numerical Weather Prediction
+ precise forecast for long time horizons
- limited accuracy for the next hours
Power porduction from monitoring
+ precise information of actual PV power production
- limited forecasting accuracy because of changing weather
meteocontrol’s
new approach
2015
+
+
=
+ combines the best of each method
+ Reduces the global RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of the forecast
Comparing forecast errors for 4 different techniques
10
Blue line: ‘NWP’ = ‘classical’ forecast based on numerical weather prediction
Black line: ‘Cloud Motion Vectors’ = improved intra day forecast based on satellite
Red line: ‘persistence forecast’ = based on PV power production data
Green line: ‘adaptive PV power forecast’ = meteocontrol’s new model
From: C. Kurz, Exakte Kurzfristprognosen optimieren den Netzbetrieb, ew Spezial Smart Energy III/2015.
RMSE .
RMSE (NWP)
RMSE of NWP
Forecast horizon (hours)
More reliable
meteocontrol’s
new approach
2015
11
RMSE (Root Mean Square Error): Results
LOWER ERRORS BY USING YIELD MEASUREMENTS
Yield Simulation
Yield Measurements
Power Forecast
50Hertz
before: 4.7%
with mc (2014): 3.9%
Transnet BW (EnBW)
before: 4.8%
with mc (2014): 4.1%
Germany
Before: 3.5%
with mc (2014): 2.8%
…and soon even
better results
thanks to
meteocontrol’s
„new adaptative
power forecast“…
Systems with:
(PowerControl activated)
or
=
9371 systems
3,8 GWp installed power
Power Control: Adapting to real time events Active and Reactive Power Control with meteocontrol hardware .
12
Overview of the feedback loop for grid stability
13
14
meteocontrol GmbH
Spicherer Straße 48 | 86157 Augsburg | Germany
Phone +49 (0)821 34666-0 | Fax +49 (0)821 34666-11
E-mail [email protected] | Web www.meteocontrol.com
Copyright:
© 2015, meteocontrol GmbH, Augsburg (Germany). All rights reserved.
Text, pictures, graphics as well as their arrangement are protected under copyright law and other protective laws. No part of this presentation or any
of its contents may be copied, reproduced, modified or adapted, handed over to third parties or made public without the prior written permission of
meteocontrol GmbH. Please note, that some images are protected by third-party copyrights.