Carsten Pötzsch, EuFMD/FAO

Emiliana Brocchi, IZSLER; Brescia

Sero-surveillance results –TransCaucasus 2009

Reported vaccination, spring 2009Vaccination

campaignAzerbaijan Armenia * Georgia

Buffer zone, cattle 99 % (88-100 %) 133 % (87 – 149 %) 36 % (0-59 %)

Buffer zone, small ruminants

19 % (0 – 26 %) 98 % (51 – 130 %) 4 % (0 – 91 %)

National, cattle 99 % (77 – 100 %) 138 % (109 – 150 %) 0 %

National, small ruminants

18 % (0 – 43 %) 97 % (0 – 152 %) 0 %

* for Armenia revaccinations are included

Objective to estimate the distribution of NSP antibodies in the project buffer zone and other areas

• Two stage random sampling design:

• Village level: estimation of NSP prevalence (according to risk zones)• Animal level: detection of NSP positives (at 10 % prevalence)

• Age of cattle : 4 - 18 months• Time: May 2008 – Mar 2009

Project activities: NSP survey in Trans Caucasus

Risk zones and vaccination buffer zone

Buffer zone Risk zone 1 (25%)

2 (20%)3 (10%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Arm Azb Nakh Geo NK

NSP survey in Trans Caucasus

Results:• > 12,000 sera collected• > 8,000 sera tested in national labs • no signs of FMD reported

NSP-Ab % 95%confidence intervals

% positive villages

NSP survey in Trans Caucasus

NSP results in Trans Caucasus (apparent prevalence)

0 %

> 0 - 20%

> 20 - 40 %

> 40 - 60 %

> 60 %

not sampled

NSP survey

follow-up investigations

Brescia testing 2009

Armenia: • Retesting of 2008 survey sera (540, coll. 05-06/08)• follow-up investigation sera (350, collected 01/09)• Retesting of national sero surveillance sera (210, coll.

autumn 08)Georgia• Testing of remaining 2009 survey sera (3200, coll.

11/08-02/09)

SP results in Georgia & Armania

_

0.0

0.1 - 39.9

40.0 - 59.9

60.0 - 79.9

80.0 - 100.0

100.1 - 999.0

NSP results - association with BZ & risk zones

* differences at p≤0.05

Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan

BZ 30.5% 5.8% 23.0%

outside BZ 30.9% 5.8% 23.6%

RZ 1 34.5% * 4.7% 25.2%

RZ 2 25.9% * 8.4% * 21.0%

RZ 3 - 4.4% 22.3%

BZ - outside

NSP- Ab Arm

NSP-Ab Brescia

SP- OManisa SP - A SP – Asia1

BZ 41.1% 37.9% 69.8% 83.0% 78.5%

outside BZ

45.6% 30.3% 76.0% 84.7% 78.2%

no differences at p≤0.05

Armenia

NSP- Ab Geo &

Brescia SP – Asia1

BZ 5.8% 73.7% *

outside BZ 5.8% 10.8% *

* differences atp≤0.05

Georgia

… other possible associations

sheep/cattle ratio:

no association with NSP prev.(p>0.05)

p<0.05

• introduction of FMDV or NSP positive animals from outside:– trade – contacts during seasonal grazing – wild and grazing animals crossing

borders

• unnoticed or unreported FMD• incorrect age data

Possible explanations of NSP situation

NSP antibody results – regional -

0 %

> 0 - 20%

> 20 - 40 %

> 40 - 60 %

> 60 %

not sampled

Regional FMD events 2004 – 2009

2005 20072004 2006

N.Karabakh; O PanAsia II

(ARRIAH)

2009

buffer z.:

3-15%

buffer z.:

10-58%

Arm/Azb 23-31%

NSP surveys(mean)

FMD diagnosis

Epidemics A Iran 05 O PanAsia II

Iran

Turkey

A Iran 05

Georgia; A serology,

clinical signs

2008

Geo 6% Arm/Azb: 3-11%

Nakh 1%

follow-up

Conclusions

• Labs can perform good quality serology • Currently favourable FMD situation despite some outbreaks

rumors (localized & sporadic, mainly 2008)• Good vacc. coverage in Armenia (and probably in

Azb) but pockets of low SP occur• Virus circulation more associated with regional FMD situation

than with vaccination (Georgia)• Risk factors: seasonal pasture, spatial (?), SR ?, vaccination

compliance, movements

risk based control & surveill.: future assistance inFMD control with increased nat. responsibility